How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

Some pointers from Millie:

• combined 60 000 Ukrainians trained in the west so far
• 6 000 Ukrainians in training in the West at this moment
• The USA has trained a combined 60 000 Ukrainians in maneuver combined arms operations
• This includes 12 maneuver combined arms "Battalion tactical groups" including their entire staff
• at this moment three battalions are in training by the USA

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

For over a year Solovyov has been saying that the Ukrainian government are just puppets of the United States. Now it has been revealed that the real puppet masters are really in Ukraine and the United States government are really the puppets.

I am so confused! Don't think I'm smart enough to understand the Solovyov show.

A classic example of Russian "doublethink" in action. 

"Doublethink is a process of indoctrination in which subjects are expected to simultaneously accept two conflicting beliefs as truth, often at odds with their own memory or sense of reality.^[1] Doublethink is related to, but differs from, hypocrisy. "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doublethink

George Orwell might have understood this sort of thing better than any academic thinker on the planet.  And he did it in the 1940s, without the benefit of decades of Cold War examples to draw from.

Steve

[Taranis]

42 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I guess the Ukrainians also bribed the EU Parliament as well.  Those crafty Ukrainians... what will they think of next!

Steve

Buy Battlefront to modify all the values of the Russians and make them super bad... Wait... No need, they are already being exterminated by the Javelins, Bradleys and Co

[Centurian52]

8 hours ago, panzermartin said:

constantly undermining Russia is a dangerous habit I won't support here

If and when Russia becomes a non-aggressive and democratic state I will start discouraging people from undermining Russia. I'm not gonna hold my breath though.

Edited June 15, 2023 by Centurian52

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

A classic example of Russian "doublethink" in action. 

"Doublethink is a process of indoctrination in which subjects are expected to simultaneously accept two conflicting beliefs as truth, often at odds with their own memory or sense of reality.^[1] Doublethink is related to, but differs from, hypocrisy. "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doublethink

George Orwell might have understood this sort of thing better than any academic thinker on the planet.  And he did it in the 1940s, without the benefit of decades of Cold War examples to draw from.

Steve

nah it is just perspective.  it is like an Escher drawing.  It can be up and down at the same time, receiving the bribe whilst giving the bribe at the same time,

[Kraft]

8 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Buy Battlefront to modify all the values of the Russians and make them super bad... Wait... No need, they are already being exterminated by the Javelins, Bradleys and Co

on the topic of Battlefront, and some undisclosed game, any hints about future expansions? I hope we'll see some balance tweaks, like vehicle/mine survivability etc etc

I know Steve has a list!

[Battlefront.com]

19 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Ukraine military

• Ukraine's military has one foot in the Soviet past and one foot in "NATO".
• Wide variety between units in culture, skill, and experience 
• The prewar military was nothing like many in the West described it as NATO trained ext.
  • No widespread Western training, no NCO core...
• The prewar UKR military does not exist anymore
  • Mobilization and coming of old Soviet reserve officers 
• It is remarkable how much Ukraine's military has done given its challenges

 

The above is from Michael Kofman's latest WOTR podcast.  I had some thoughts about this...

I think he is correct that the overhauling of Ukraine's NCO system ahead of this war was still a "work in progress".  It possibly had not achieved the level of comparison to NATO as we had thought or hoped for.  However, it's difficult to tell because the prewar NCOs have largely been lost as casualties or promoted higher up to replace lost junior officers.  It's been difficult to continue these standards under the strain of war, therefore things probably have slid backwards to more Soviet expediencies.  For sure this is one of the primary areas Ukraine needs to work on after the war is over.

That said, the most important thing about the NATO concept of NCOs is that they are there to provide leaderships, not just to ensure orders are carried out.  This is something that can be easily instilled into new NCOs and officers, though it takes a lot of effort to make it effective in practice.  I have a hunch that a rushed Ukrainian NCO is going to be inherently superior than a rushed Russian NCO, even if inferior to the average NATO NCO.

This war is all about relative strengths and weaknesses, not about ideal states.  As long as Ukraine is consistently better than Russia, then that's probably good enough.

Steve

[Kinophile]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Based on the way you were presenting yourself, the slap down was not uncalled for.  You set the conditions for the response, NOT the rest of us.  Which gets us to the reason for this mess you caused...

Tux detailed things very well, but I'll make this point explicit and directed at you with my Moderator hat firmly on my head.

There is a huge difference between coming into a room full of people who are having an informed exchange of ideas and screaming insults about their intelligence, integrity, reasoning skills, etc. and coming into the same room and engaging in the discussion with productive debate behavior.  This is how you started out the whole mess we're sorting through:

" Sometimes I'm surprised by the amount of copium in this forum. "

Followed by a distorted and not intellectually honest assessment of the discussion that we were having at the time.  Yet people still (largely) engaged your criticisms as if you had presented them without all the bluster and high handed theatrics.  The responses proved your characterization of both the topic and the people engaged in it as being highly flawed.  Then you got all huffy because it was clear you stepped on a land mine you yourself laid out, making your initial argument weaker with every post you made.

 

Nobody is saying they know everything or even that they might say something today and it turns out to be incorrect.  The fact that you THINK this is what is going on here shows a very bad and misplaced bias on your part.

(I believe you did not intend "undermining Russia" but "underestimating Russia", because there is a huge difference).

For sure we should NEVER underestimate Russia.  It has continually surpassed expectations for its ability to keep this war going.  However, it is just as dangerous to attribute strength without a basis for it.

Here is how you should have handle yourself:

1.  It should be clear after 2500+ pages of this thread that the group is interested in better understanding this war, not blindly cheering on the Ukrainians to victory (though for sure that is the end result we wish to see).  It is completely possible that people might be letting their views of each side cloud judgement.  IT IS CORRECT TO POINT THIS OUT WHEN THERE IS A REAL REASON TO DO SO.  If you think people are jumping to conclusions about something with weak/substandard evidence, all you need to do is state that pretty much exactly as I just wrote.  Do not insert dramatics, do not try and position yourself as a savior.

2.  Explicitly state your reasons for casting doubt on the discussion as it is, not as you imagine it to be.  Challenge specific statements by people you think are making overly broad statements or conclusions.  Do not be vague about the reasons for your challenge, even if it is simply to say "I do not see the evidence to support your conclusion, even though I do not have counter evidence to offer".

3.  Accept that you might not be as informed as you think and that the arguments are, in fact, far more solid than you initially thought.  Maybe you don't understand how to interpret evidence as well as the people you are questioning.  Maybe they have simply skipped over some basics because they have elevated levels of knowledge and didn't see the need to make basic level arguments.

4.  People should be free to explore ideas here, even if they are contrarian in nature.  However, people who make bad arguments and STICK to them when properly challenged, are not helping make the conversations here better.  In reality it does the exact opposite, which is why there's a low tolerance for "whataboutisms" and other bad debate behavior.

That about covers it.

Steve

I've personally found that regularly inserting little caveats early into my posts (IIRC, AFAIK,  I believe but not sure, As I understand it,  From what I've seen,  etc) is excellent at making it clear that the following is my opinion/ruminations and crucially,  that I'm Not Sure I Understand  Correctly. 

Everything after that is often nicely toned down, c.f. @billbindc's and I discussing Prigozhin's true status. It never got argumentative. 

This isn't the absolute best way, I assume, but it works for me so far. 

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I know Steve has a list!

And that list grows longer by the day!  No idea when any of it will get incorporated, but eventually I think we'll be able to work most of it in.

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

That said, the most important thing about the NATO concept of NCOs is that they are there to provide leaderships, not just to ensure orders are carried out.  This is something that can be easily instilled into new NCOs and officers, though it takes a lot of effort to make it effective in practice.  I have a hunch that a rushed Ukrainian NCO is going to be inherently superior than a rushed Russian NCO, even if inferior to the average NATO NCO.

This war is all about relative strengths and weaknesses, not about ideal states.  As long as Ukraine is consistently better than Russia, then that's probably good enough.

Steve

Yeah, Ukraine definitely has and has had a structure similar to "NCO" which provides leadership, initiative, and experience outside the officer core. Kofman has talked about it in detail often, it is just that it is nothing like the NATO and US "NCO system" even though it fills a similar need/role.

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Kinophile said:

I've personally found that regularly inserting little caveats early into my posts (IIRC, AFAIK,  I believe but not sure, As I understand it,  From what I've seen,  etc) is excellent at making it clear that the following is my opinion/ruminations and crucially,  that I'm Not Sure I Understand  Correctly. 

Everything after that is often nicely toned down, c.f. @billbindc's and I discussing Prigozhin's true status. It never got argumentative. 

This isn't the absolute best way, I assume, but it works for me so far. 

It is something I try to do more now than I ever did before.  I know that I'm perfectly fine with being proven wrong about something, however sometimes people don't understand that is my default mindset.  Putting in caveats like this helps convey that to other people.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

Not to beat the dead horse of “Underestimating Russia”, but I have several friends who are well-informed and intelligent who work or have worked in national security related fields, who still can’t reconcile Russia’s performance with the model they have in their heads. They keep on saying “there has to be some cunning plan” or “they have to have reserves” or a resigned sigh and reach for the scotch. 

[DesertFox]

Very good signal!

 

 

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Source: Parliament calls on NATO to invite Ukraine to join the alliance (europa.eu)

The crazy Irish woman who carries water for Putin must have lost her mind.

Edited June 15, 2023 by dan/california

[Taranis]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And that list grows longer by the day!  No idea when any of it will get incorporated, but eventually I think we'll be able to work most of it in.

Steve

[Maciej Zwolinski]

9 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

They keep on saying “there has to be some cunning plan” or “they have to have reserves” or a resigned sigh and reach for the scotch. 

I misread the last word as "crotch" which created an entirely wrong picture in my head. Wrong on many levels.

[Taranis]

Some MaxxPro actions :

Quote

"As it is reported by Ukrainian officials there is the fighting near to Vuhledar."

https://t.me/pilotblog/4669
 

Quote

Near Vuhledar in Donetsk region, the Ukrainian military was able to advance one kilometer deep into Russian positions, - Press Center of Tavriya axis Defense Forces

https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/15-june-near-vuhledar-in-donetsk-region-the-ukrainian-military

Bakhmut :

Quote

Yesterday Ukrainian forces took the important height near to the Bakhmut city. Now all the city is visible and Ruzzians are well targeted.

https://t.me/pilotblog/4670

 

3rd Assault Brigade (Bakhmut again) heavy figthing :
https://t.me/ab3army/2702

Edited June 15, 2023 by Taranis

[kimbosbread]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

The big question after this war will be where to completely re-tool and where to be more conservative.  If history is any indication, we will talk ourselves into "well it is an eastern European anomaly", "Russia Sux" and "We would do it right", so we really do not need to do major overhauls.  The European powers did the exact same thing after observing the US Civil War (except it was "America Sux") which led to that little whoopsie we call WWI.

I hope that we move towards a smaller, faster R&D and procurement cycle for some stuff as to massive projects. Obviously we some of this during the war where practical considerations force this evolution, but during peace it dies away. Small drones are a good example, but also the evolution of small arms due to competitive shooting.

We should be giving free drones to every airsoft milsim and getting them set up with ataks and whatnot and seeing if they can figure out fun solutions for jamming and camouflage. 

[Butschi]

11 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The crazy Irish woman whocarries water for Putin must have lost her mind.

Care to elaborate?

[DesertFox]

Do we have this guy already? Demilitarized at the Arabat Spit strike.

 

 

[Taranis]

May 16-31th sum up, for history :

Edited June 15, 2023 by Taranis

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

Looks like Moscow is queuing up the next atrocity.

Biden needs to make VERY clear that if they blow the plant every NATO plane in Europe joins the war in about two hours, and they are going to do their level best to kill every Russian soldier in Ukraine. The next stupidity gets the entire Russian navy sunk.

[kimbosbread]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Biden needs to make VERY clear that if they blow the plant every NATO plane in Europe joins the war in about two hours, and they are going to do their level best to kill every Russian soldier in Ukraine. The next stupidity gets the entire Russian navy sunk.

Yeah this small escalation after Russia does something atrocious is not gonna work. Russia blows the nuke plant- let’s give UA f16s. I’d say taking out the Russian military is pretty mild- it should be taking out every Russian power plant in western Russia.

[Bulletpoint]

Any news from Belgorod? I haven't heard anything for a long time now. Nothing on ISW either. Maybe the special distraction operation has ended now that the main offensive has begun?

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Yeah this small escalation after Russia does something atrocious is not gonna work. Russia blows the nuke plant- let’s give UA f16s. I’d say taking out the Russian military is pretty mild- it should be taking out every Russian power plant in western Russia.

Starting to sound like Russian prime time TV in here...