How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[MikeyD]

I don' know if we ever got a formal list of which American politicians were receiving Russian bribe money channeled to them through the NRA. Some politicians really shouldn't be receiving regular security briefings.

[Seminole]

7 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

I don' know if we ever got a formal list of which American politicians were receiving Russian bribe money channeled to them through the NRA. Some politicians really shouldn't be receiving regular security briefings.

In 2018, the NRA admitted that it had received contributions from 23 Russians or Americans living in Russia since 2015, amounting to just over $2,500 in "routine payments" such as membership fees or magazine subscriptions. The NRA later said that it had received more money from two Russian nationals previously disclosed, including Alexander Torshin, a Russian banker, with links to the Kremlin. [ed. note: Torshin bought a lifetime membership - $1,500)

At the time, Torshin was under an FBI investigation into whether any Russian money was funneled through the NRA to help Donald Trump in the 2016 election. The NRA has denied that money they gave towards Trump's campaign came from Russia.

The FEC general counsel's office concluded in 2018 that there was "insufficient" evidence to state that Russian money was illegally funneled through the NRA to influence the presidential campaign.

 

These smears actually work better with less details, lets the imagination run.

[keas66]

15 minutes ago, Seminole said:

In 2018, the NRA admitted that it had received contributions from 23 Russians or Americans living in Russia since 2015, amounting to just over $2,500 in "routine payments" such as membership fees or magazine subscriptions. The NRA later said that it had received more money from two Russian nationals previously disclosed, including Alexander Torshin, a Russian banker, with links to the Kremlin. [ed. note: Torshin bought a lifetime membership - $1,500)

At the time, Torshin was under an FBI investigation into whether any Russian money was funneled through the NRA to help Donald Trump in the 2016 election. The NRA has denied that money they gave towards Trump's campaign came from Russia.

The FEC general counsel's office concluded in 2018 that there was "insufficient" evidence to state that Russian money was illegally funneled through the NRA to influence the presidential campaign.

 

These smears actually work better with less details, lets the imagination run.

Selective quoting  to prove your point ? I assume the last  paragraph is supposed to disprove any suspicions about the NRA being a Foreign  Asset of the Russians ?

How about this random link from the interwebs -  again from newsweek

https://www.newsweek.com/national-rifle-association-senate-finance-russia-1461825

[sburke]

8 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Oil refinery in Krasnodar Kai. Yes thats in the caucasus. See map in thread.

 

 

 

wow.. wake up.. login and.. wtf?!  are we still talking about the 20,000 Ukrainian bomber raid on Moscow?  Who started WW2, whether Graham is going to open his pie hole and say something incredibly stupid... again?

I would ask if it was a slow day but @DesertFox post above is pretty intense.  Now THAT is a drone strike.

[sburke]

Russian energy giant Gazprom's private security force was deployed to fight in Ukraine, report says (yahoo.com)

Russia's state-owned energy company Gazprom now supplies more than just natural gas.

According to the Wall Street Journal, it is actively helping provide manpower to the frontlines of Russia's war on Ukraine.

First authorized by the Kremlin to do so in early February, the energy giant has spent recent months establishing private security companies and recruiting additional troops for Russia's war, often fighting under the directive of the Defense Ministry.

Though the security firms were founded on the pretext of defending Russia's energy sector, recruits ended up in Ukraine weeks later, WSJ reported.

Some in the group, made up of former soldiers and company security personnel, were forcibly recruited, adding they they were trained at a Russian base, and shipped off to Bakhmut, the area of eastern Ukraine that has seen the fiercest fighting in recent months.

"I want to tell my colleagues at Gazprom: Don't go to Ukraine, stay at home," a former Gazprom security guard, who was sent to Ukraine and was injured, said in a video obtained by WSJ.

[Beleg85]

Ok, thanks for answers regarding sen. Graham, please refrain from political knifefights, I just mean what technical level of detail he may possess. After Texeira papers it would be risky on Ukraine behalf to share too much sensitive info.

Meanwhile, a lot of signal that heavy stuff is moving inside Ukraine:

If they would manage to surprise Russians with dislocation of their troops, even partly, it alone would be a feat worth for major history books.

[Battlefront.com]

When I log into this thread in the morning and see 60+ new posts it is because one of two things:

1.  Ukraine did something extremely interesting

2.  People have driven the thread wildly off topic

In this morning's case, it was #2.  I'm going to exercise my privileges as moderator to put an end to two different off topic distractions.

Let us not have any more discussion about WW2 bombing campaigns.  It's not relevant other than to demonstrate that causing mass destruction and casualties is not a quick way to end a war when the defending nation is solidly in favor of the war and how it is being prosecuted by the government.  This is why Putin's attacks on Ukrainian cities aren't working.  Ukraine's strikes on Russia, by contrast, are already having a positive impact on Ukraine's war effort.  The tizzy within various circles of influence within Russia is no doubt what Ukraine was aiming to achieve.  No Russian civilians were killed and only a couple wounded.  If Ukraine starts deliberately targeting hospitals and schools, like the Russians do, then we should revisit this topic.

I'm going to snuff out the NRA thing right now as it isn't relevant in any way.  Everybody should put a sock in it.  Objectively the NRA is a corrupt organization that has transformed itself into a vehicle for the self enrichment of its leadership.  By any reasonable understanding of US' laws governing non-profit activities people should be in jail and the organization shut down because it is a scam.  The legitimate purpose for the NRA (i.e. gun owner education and advocacy) should be taken up by a new organization/s with a clean slate and, hopefully, vastly better governance controls.
 

And with that, let's get back to what we're supposed to be talking about.

Steve

[Seminole]

31 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Selective quoting  to prove your point ? I assume the last  paragraph is supposed to disprove any suspicions about the NRA being a Foreign  Asset of the Russians ?

How about this random link from the interwebs -  again from newsweek

https://www.newsweek.com/national-rifle-association-senate-finance-russia-1461825

I think a partisan political report is less credible than a decision to not prosecute where facts must be demonstrated in a court of law.  We’ve had years of bogus accusations from members of Congress.

I think more important is to recognize the sum being discussed is around $5000.  The idea that the NRA was actually a money laundering operation for Russian influence flounders a bit when you mention that tiny sum and contrast it with what Americans contribute to the organization.  
 

As I was trying to say, the story is sexier with fewer details where your imagination can run wild.  

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russian energy giant Gazprom's private security force was deployed to fight in Ukraine, report says (yahoo.com)

Russia's state-owned energy company Gazprom now supplies more than just natural gas.

According to the Wall Street Journal, it is actively helping provide manpower to the frontlines of Russia's war on Ukraine.

First authorized by the Kremlin to do so in early February, the energy giant has spent recent months establishing private security companies and recruiting additional troops for Russia's war, often fighting under the directive of the Defense Ministry.

Though the security firms were founded on the pretext of defending Russia's energy sector, recruits ended up in Ukraine weeks later, WSJ reported.

Some in the group, made up of former soldiers and company security personnel, were forcibly recruited, adding they they were trained at a Russian base, and shipped off to Bakhmut, the area of eastern Ukraine that has seen the fiercest fighting in recent months.

"I want to tell my colleagues at Gazprom: Don't go to Ukraine, stay at home," a former Gazprom security guard, who was sent to Ukraine and was injured, said in a video obtained by WSJ.

OK, so it looks like the Gazprom PMC was, at least partially, part of the "covert mobilization" efforts to get bodies to the front without doing a formal mobilization.

Once again this provides us with evidence supporting the notion that Putin fears another overt mobilization.  The amount of trickery the regime is overseeing in order to get fresh meat can not be interpreted in any other way, as far as I can tell.

Steve

[Eddy]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/17726

Russia spent $1.7 billion in May alone on missiles and drones that failed according to calculations by the Kyiv Post

Quote

Russia fired more than 500 missiles and kamikaze drones at Ukraine during May with nearly 90 percent of them being destroyed by Ukrainian air defenses, a Kyiv Post analysis of Ukrainian military data has revealed, at a cost to the Russians of more than $1.7 billion dollars.

Not including Shaheds:

Quote

• Kh101-555 missiles - 114 deployed; 106 destroyed; a 93 percent neutralization rate; potential cost; $1.48 billion. 
• Kaliber missiles – 29 deployed; 26 destroyed; 100 percent; $155 million.
• Kinzhal missiles – 7 deployed; 7 destroyed; 100 percent; $28 million.
• Iskander missiles including from Su-400 systems – 16 deployed; 16 destroyed; 100 percent; $48 million.
• Kh-22 missiles – 5 deployed; 5 destroyed; 100 percent; $5 million.
• Missiles from Su-300 systems – 12 deployed; 5 destroyed; 40 percent; $5 million.
• Other unnmamed missiles – 7 deployed; 7 destroyed; 100 percent; unknown cost.

By failed I think they mean failed to hit a target (including shot down) as opposed to technical failure.  

What they can't calculate is the opportunity cost of what else they could have been fired instead of civilians.

[riptides]

3 hours ago, Bearstronaut said:

Graham is a weasel but he's also not an idiot. He spent over 30 years in the Air Force and Air Force Reserves and was on the Armed Forces Committee from 2003 to 2019. He's always been a foreign policy hawk and I think Zelensky probably told him the truth about their upcoming offensive.

He is on the right side of this crisis.

It's the best money we've ever spent," apparently in reference to U.S. aid to help Ukraine fight Russia in general. And after some back-and-forth with Zelenskyy, he said, "And the Russians are dying."

Graham speaking to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a visit to the country on May 26.

[DesertFox]

Very nice. Up the Vikings!

Through the Nansen programme, Norway will provide military, humanitarian and civilian support totalling NOK 75 billion over five years," said Mr Støre.

Joint and long-term support for Ukraine - regjeringen.no

[Butschi]

15 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Very nice. Up the Vikings!

Through the Nansen programme, Norway will provide military, humanitarian and civilian support totalling NOK 75 billion over five years," said Mr Støre.

Joint and long-term support for Ukraine - regjeringen.no

That's "only" 6.7 billion $ and a small fraction of the profit they are making from oil and gas due to the war.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/norways-oil-gas-tax-revenue-soars-record-89-bln-2023-01-26/

Still, not to be scoffed at and pretty decent to share some of it with Ukraine.

[Harmon Rabb]

39 minutes ago, riptides said:

He is on the right side of this crisis.

It's the best money we've ever spent," apparently in reference to U.S. aid to help Ukraine fight Russia in general. And after some back-and-forth with Zelenskyy, he said, "And the Russians are dying."

Graham speaking to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a visit to the country on May 26.

The Kremlin is not very happy with him, they even issued an arrest warrant for him.  Grahm's response while did not make much legal sense, because last I checked he is not wanted by the ICC was pretty clever.

 

Edited May 31, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[cesmonkey]

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3411804/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

 

Quote

This security assistance package also contains artillery, anti-armor capabilities, and ammunition, including tens of millions of rounds of small arms ammunition, valued at up to $300 million to help Ukraine continue to defend its sovereign territory.

The capabilities in this package include:

•            Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems;

•            AIM-7 missiles for air defense;

•            Avenger air defense systems;

•            Stinger anti-aircraft systems;

•            Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);

•            155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;

•            105mm tank ammunition;

•            Precision aerial munitions;

•            Zuni aircraft rockets;

•            Munitions for Unmanned Aerial Systems;

•            AT-4 anti-armor systems;

•            Over 30 million rounds of small arms ammunition;

•            Mine clearing equipment and systems;

•            Demolition munitions for obstacle clearing;

•            Night vision devices;

•            Spare parts, generators, and other field equipment

 

[Seminole]

OPEC+ news:

The Financial Times reports that OPEC has barred several media groups from attending its crucial production meeting in Vienna this weekend, in a move officials said was driven by Saudi Arabia

Reporters from Reuters, Bloomberg News and Dow Jones, the publisher of The Wall Street Journal, have been denied invites to Opec’s Vienna headquarters, according to people familiar with the matter.

The ban is unusual and no reason has been given for excluding the media groups, but people familiar with the decision said it had been instigated by Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman.

 

Are they readying a surprise cut announcement and don't want any leaks?

If it was Russia's intention to send oil tumbling after its oil minister last week said that OPEC+ has no intentions of cutting production, in the process inviting another round of shorts and bearish CTAs, well... mission accomplished: on Wednesday oil tumbled more than 3% following the latest dismal Chinese PMI data, and followed a 4.4% drop on Tuesday the black gold is now on pace for its worst month since November 2021. But the real driver behind the latest dump is the reversal of last week's speculation that an OPEC+ cut may be coming following a thinly veiled threat by the Saudi energy minister.

...

Meanwhile, Goldman forecasts a hold for major producers because they likely first want to observe the impact of fresh cuts which just started this month (actually, they haven't as Russia has been cutting output only verbally, while its exports remain near record high). As an aside, OPEC has never cut within three months of a previous cut with stocks as low as today.

"Signs that the market remains on track for H2 deficits, incomplete Russia compliance, and several recent comments by OPEC+ and US energy policymakers also support a hold" according to Goldman., which lays out these four reasons why the major producers are likely to roll over output.

• First, OPEC projections and inventories data suggest the market remains on track for large and sustained deficits in H2 with unchanged OPEC production. OPEC, the IEA, and our team all continue to predict that solid global oil demand growth will outpace non-OPEC supply growth this year (Exhibit 2).
• Second, our Russia supply nowcast suggests that Russia production has fallen by less than the 500kb/d pledged. The Wall Street Journal also reports that “Saudi officials have complained to senior Russian officials and asked them to respect he agreed cuts”. We suspect that OPEC policymakers will likely first want to see stronger evidence of full Russia compliance before announcing any deeper cuts.
• Third, several recent comments by OPEC+ policymakers also point to a hold. For instance, Iraq's Energy Minister said that "there will be no additional reduction."
• Fourth, recent comments by US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm that the US could start repurchasing oil for the SPR after June, and the announcement of a modest SPR purchase of 3mb suggest that OPEC’s frustration with Western energy policies—which likely contributed to the surprise cut in April—may have edged down.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Eddy said:

By failed I think they mean failed to hit a target (including shot down) as opposed to technical failure.

Definitely a "squishy" definition.  There's been some comments made that Ukraine counts mechanical or pilot errors that result in an obvious miss as "interception".  So I think the best way to look at the numbers is those which didn't strike a target.

Steve

[Kinophile]

17 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3411804/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

 

 

Same again, basically (which is a good thing,  not scoffing). Useful as an indicator of future needs for the ZSU. More AD,  more obstacles breaching,  more boom-boom, incl long range. Filling out current formatting. 

Nothing about Air Force platforms,  nothing about Air logistics and supply,  etc. 

This will take about 2 weeks to come in, which (if its intended to support/replenish the Offensive and not just fatten up the starting force) suggests a mid-June start of the Festivities...

Edited May 31, 2023 by Kinophile

[cesmonkey]

Interesting. Mostly telling the story of their commander who died in March.

 

[poesel]

Russia limited the number of German employees of the state in Russia to 350 (from 700). That means that Germany will have to close 2 of the 3 consulates it has in Russia.
As a reaction, Germany ordered the closure of 4 of the 5 Russian consulates in Germany.

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/russland-kuendigt-angemessene-reaktion-auf-konsulatsschliessungen-an-a-d41ba823-edd8-45cf-90fa-4539267a4456

[sburke]

Just now, poesel said:

Russia limited the number of German employees of the state in Russia to 350 (from 700). That means that Germany will have to close 2 of the 3 consulates it has in Russia.
As a reaction, Germany ordered the closure of 4 of the 5 Russian consulates in Germany.

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/russland-kuendigt-angemessene-reaktion-auf-konsulatsschliessungen-an-a-d41ba823-edd8-45cf-90fa-4539267a4456

damn, now those poor spies may end up getting sent to the meat grinder.

[Battlefront.com]

Rare footage of small arms shooting down a Lancet loitering munition drone:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1663985396294795288

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

 

Edited May 31, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[sburke]

9 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

 

it'll be a fun day when/if Putin shoves him out a window.

[Artkin]

3 hours ago, riptides said:

He is on the right side of this crisis.

It's the best money we've ever spent," apparently in reference to U.S. aid to help Ukraine fight Russia in general. And after some back-and-forth with Zelenskyy, he said, "And the Russians are dying."

Graham speaking to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a visit to the country on May 26.

Literally. People who are complaining about the money spent in aid are complete fools.