How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, sburke said:

@billbindc can testify to that graffiti appearing on a specific bridge on the capitol beltway.

Indeed I can.

[Offshoot]

For those worrying about the effect of the Moscow drone attacks on western supporters of Ukraine. I doubt they would come out with such a statement if they had any thought at all that Ukraine were deliberately targeting civilians with deadly force.

Ukraine has right to defend itself beyond its borders – UK Foreign Secretary - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/30/7404539/

"It has the legitimate right to do so within its own borders of course, but it does also have the right to project force beyond its borders to undermine Russia's ability to project force into Ukraine itself," Cleverly added.

 

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

More information on what seems to be a Ukrainian deep strike on Russian officers recreating behind the front on the Azov coastline:

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/05/russia-ukraine-war-escalation-biden-us-risks/674220/

I swear I didn't write this, but if the author reads the thread we deserve a mention.

 

 

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

I swear I didn't write this, but if the author reads the thread we deserve a mention.

 

 

I pour scorn upon Kori Schake. She makes the usual mistake of treating F-16's as a deus ex machina despite the obvious issues of assimilation, training and logistics. She discusses American aid to Ukraine without once mentioning that the WH has to arbitrage Chinese potential aid to Russia in response. She somehow manages to descry Biden's lack of boldness when the entire structure of international and American support was begun and relentlessly pursued by this administration 8 months before the war began. 

That article isn't analysis...it's politics. And from the cheap seats at that.

And a note on F-16's: https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/what-f16s-will-and-wont-do-for-ukraine

[danfrodo]

9 hours ago, IanL said:

I think he will meet Putin for poison tea on the 10th floor of a hospital. As he is leaving he will loose his balance after shooting himself in the head twice and the chest six times and then fall down four flights of stairs and through a window on the 8th floor.

So sounds like I should tally your vote under the column marked 'suicide'. 

Great posts, folks.  I do think the target most likely to cause overthrow  of Putin would be to target vodka supplies.  And cigarettes. 

Not sure about the UKR drone strikes on Moscow.  As long as UKR doesn't lose the international moral high ground.  But as was mentioned above, if RU can do serial mass murder for a year and not be called a terrorist state, then maybe the high ground is not as hard to hold as one would think.

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

I pour scorn upon Kori Schake. She makes the usual mistake of treating F-16's as a deus ex machina despite the obvious issues of assimilation, training and logistics. She discusses American aid to Ukraine without once mentioning that the WH has to arbitrage Chinese potential aid to Russia in response. She somehow manages to descry Biden's lack of boldness when the entire structure of international and American support was begun and relentlessly pursued by this administration 8 months before the war began. 

That article isn't analysis...it's politics. And from the cheap seats at that.

And a note on F-16's: https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/what-f16s-will-and-wont-do-for-ukraine

F-16s in many ways are political, but one of the ways they are political is telling the Russians that we aren't quitting, ever. That they can leave now, or when their army is so broken Kazakistan can credibly threaten to invade. The fact F-16s would just let the Ukrainian air force keep flying isn't trivial either. They have pretty much sucked in every left over Soviet plane and part on the world market, they take wear and at least some damage every day. 

It is also worth pointing out that Patriots were not supposed be able to stop Kinzahls, and they are currently batting 1000. It is possible, not guaranteed but possible, that there will be a large upside surprise when the F-16s become active. A great deal depends on what munitions we send.

Edited May 31, 2023 by dan/california

[chrisl]

4 hours ago, sburke said:

@billbindc can testify to that graffiti appearing on a specific bridge on the capitol beltway.

Is that kind of like the "Death Scrod" of Somerville, MA?

[MikeyD]

What a coincidence, Steve and Charles met, back last century, to found BFC in a cafe in Somerville MA. 

[chrisl]

3 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

What a coincidence, Steve and Charles met, back last century, to found BFC in a cafe in Somerville MA. 

I never knew that! Probably within blocks of where I lived 88-90.  I've met a bunch of people who lived within about 3 blocks of where I lived at the same time I was there, but only met them after we'd all left.  I still stop in Somerville when I'm out there for work and want to wait for traffic to ease up.

[panzermartin]

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The threat from NATO psychosis is real, but that is only half of what Russia suffers from.  The other half is the belief that they can win a war with NATO.  So far NATO hasn't done anything directly, so Russians are in a bit of a quandary because the direct threat from NATO isn't there, but a direct threat from Ukraine is and it is beating the snot out of Russia.

The other threat Russians fear is the central government losing control of the economy and civil order.  They fear a return to the 1990s more than they fear NATO.  The economic strains are evident everywhere in Russia, the crack down on civil liberties as well.  I don't think many Russians are comfortable where things are headed.  Having drone strikes in/around Moscow is only going to further reduce confidence that Putin has things under control.

So yeah, from a psychological standpoint this is a good move by Ukraine.

Steve

I will be able to certainly answer this in the coming months! But yours could be a good reading of different Russians mindset. 

Although I think a good portion of their population is already aware of the NATO involvement in the UA operations. Not sure what they are thinking of these raids. But maybe we underestimate that like all countries Russia has a large base of primitive nationalism that could trigger things and the rest of population to the wrong direction. They are still hardwired to contest any western threat like the numerous times it has happened in the past. I'm thinking this war isn't much different than 19th century and 20th century wars, it's the same imperialistic bras de fer, and Crimea in particular is a precious jewel that has seen Ukrainian troops fighting along German, French, British forces against the different versions of the russian empire. 

[DesertFox]

Oil refinery in Krasnodar Kai. Yes thats in the caucasus. See map in thread.

 

 

 

Edited May 31, 2023 by DesertFox

[panzermartin]

And to add, as I'm reading after the overnight shelling of shebekino in the Belgorod area , the russian governor says for them to be safe they must annexed Kharkov region entirely. 

Yes, russian nationalists will be happy to see the indifferent population to feel more threatened. 

[Aragorn2002]

22 hours ago, Joe982 said:

Ukrain doesn't have the ammo to waste bombing the suburbs of Moscow. It's somebody else doing this.

That is also my opinion. If that 'somebody' is prepared to blow up an entire house block, full of their own people, to justify 'anti-terrorist-operations', they won't hesitate to send drones against their own people.

[Haiduk]

18 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

That is also my opinion. If that 'somebody' is prepared to blow up an entire house block, full of their own people, to justify 'anti-terrorist-operations', they won't hesitate to send drones against their own people.

These were our UAVs (UJ-22 UAV of UKR design was among of those, which attacked). And I think, this is not last time. Russian citizens, especially in satiated rich Moscow have to feel what is a war, which is not reality TV-show. 

[Aragorn2002]

29 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

These were our UAVs (UJ-22 UAV of UKR design was among of those, which attacked). And I think, this is not last time. Russian citizens, especially in satiated rich Moscow have to feel what is a war, which is not reality TV-show. 

If that's true, I think it's a serious mistake by Ukraine.

[FancyCat]

48 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

And to add, as I'm reading after the overnight shelling of shebekino in the Belgorod area , the russian governor says for them to be safe they must annexed Kharkov region entirely. 

Yes, russian nationalists will be happy to see the indifferent population to feel more threatened. 

It would be a wonderful thing for Russian focus to switch to Kharkov, where Ukraine can easily defend, so Ukraine can slice into the South. 

A few cross-border raids ain't gonna do it, or artillery fire, Ukraine should threaten Belgorod with a actual offensive, force Putin and company to have to switch offensive power to the area to push Ukraine back. These cross borders raid are therefore testing and preparing the way for the world to normalize a Russia losing territory and having enemies on their soil. 

So what if Russian nationalists will be happy? the indifferent population duly supplies the frontline, in men and material and watches as Ukraine is bombed night and day without complaint. Ukraine has given more than enough time for internal Russian dissent to gather strength, yet most protests and opposition to the regime has fled or been cowed. How much of Ukraine needs to burn before people accept coddling to Russian delusion is a failure?

 

 

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

But maybe we underestimate that like all countries Russia has a large base of primitive nationalism that could trigger things and the rest of population to the wrong direction. They are still hardwired to contest any western threat like the numerous times it has happened in the past. I'm thinking this war isn't much different than 19th century and 20th century wars, it's the same imperialistic bras de fer, and Crimea in particular is a precious jewel that has seen Ukrainian troops fighting along German, French, British forces against the different versions of the russian empire. 

Oh yes, we must not anger the Russians so they don't seek to take over all of Ukraine and impose a friendly government, or annex occupied territories and cleanse them to ensure they remain forever Russian, or seek to turn Ukraine into a land locked impoverished state, or bomb out the economic and social potential of the country via infrastructure and medical facility attacks, or mass raze town and city along the front lines, or etc.

There's a reason why Western attitudes towards Russia hardened after mobilization, cause domestically the regime has only grown stronger. No one is launching a coup against Putin. 

[Haiduk]

31 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

If that's true, I think it's a serious mistake by Ukraine.

No, see above in my post why it could be done and why it should to be continued and what effect this already caused

Is this serious mistake to shell Belgorod oblast? 

Was it serious mistake for allied bombers to bomb German cities in WWII?

Edited May 31, 2023 by Haiduk

[Aragorn2002]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 

Was it serious mistake for allied bombers to bomb German cities in WWII?

It was. And a huge warcrime.

[paxromana]

2 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

It was. And a huge warcrime.

Nope. Not according to Hague IV and Geneva. Which is why the bombing of Rotterdam didn't make it as one either.

Wrong, maybe, a war crime, no.

[FancyCat]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Was it serious mistake for allied bombers to bomb German cities in WWII?

From what I've seen, there is some spirited debate for and against the effectiveness of the allied strategical air campaign.

I am quite partial to Tooze.

https://adamtooze.com/2017/07/12/modern-history-world-war-ii-strategic-bombing-liberal-democratic-mode-war/

 

[DesertFox]

20 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Was it serious mistake for allied bombers to bomb German cities in WWII?

It wasn´t. They did the right thing and they got what they deserved.

[Brille]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

No, see above in my post why it could be done and why it should to be continued and what effect this already caused

Is this serious mistake to shell Belgorod oblast? 

Was it serious mistake for allied bombers to bomb German cities in WWII?

When in history did bombing major cities stop a war? Not counting in Hiroshima and Nagasaki because of the scale it had. 

Germany has suffered tremendously because of the bombing but despite all that it didn't surrender because of it. Nor were there any uprisings of the population against their government though probably more growing hate against the actual bombers. 

 

Was it right to bomb Germany? As a German myself I say no. Bombing on civilians in general is a war crime, regardless of who performs it. 

It might help the own military effort because it will hinder the economy (less (motivated) workers, damage to the infrastructure) and so hinder the military options for the "enemy". 

But it stays a war crime non the less. 

 

Assuming that the russian population have at least decent information on what's going on in the war they might also have the opinion that "their" war is a rightious one, due to propaganda and such. 

So I doubt that they would revolt internally  against the war if ukraine massively launches it's drones against Russians cities. The opposite could even be possible.

Standing together against the external threat and even rising the war effort. 

In Germany we call that "Burgfrieden" (peace in the castle). 

[panzermartin]

37 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

There's a reason why Western attitudes towards Russia hardened after mobilization, cause domestically the regime has only grown stronger. No one is launching a coup against Putin. 

This alone is a very bad outcome that contradicts the assumptions that russians are losing trust in the establishment. And from the comments I'm reading in more "civilized" war RU. forums they seem cold blooded, realist and determined about this war. And they seem to take a pride in that they are facing a NATO coalition in disguise, while still moving forward. We'll see if the coming Leopard counterattack shakes this determination. 

If we could convince them their lives would be better under western sphere before going to WW3 with them, it would be nice...