How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Whats the range of the cannon on the A-10? ive only seen combat footage where the aircraft fly, fire off rockets into the air and then dip. Is this something the A-10 can perform as i dont think the cannon can be useful in any way in this conflict. What about needing to be high in the air? can the A-10 operate at the same sort of low-flying environment to not get murdered by AD?

Also, noting that yes, Ukraine has more pilots than airframes, and will suffer losses, losing trained pilots is still horribly a bad decision, and we see the effects of erosion of Russian airpower via the loss of trained personnel, that applies to Ukraine as well, i would caution against sacrificing personnel for merely destroying tanks. 

I saw recently the SU-24 is being used potentially to fire off the Storm Shadow missile: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/su-24-fencer-is-ukraines-storm-shadow-missile-carrier

On another note, didn't Putin come to power by attacking the oligarchs? i wonder if that division means Russian public still distinguish him separately from the elites of the 90s.

A account on the raid: https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/05/24/novaya-gazeta-europe-publishes-account-by-anonymous-participant-in-belgorod-raid

Russia is still trying to infiltrate Ukraine, including recruiting ISIS fighters and having them joining the military for Ukraine, https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/05/22/you-really-are-a-terrorist

Hmm, if Ukraine can leverage their combat power to turn the border regions into actual combat zones, we could see huge pressure on Russia to move trained units to defend: 

 

Not surprising.  We've speculated at times that this is what Russia was doing, though not necessarily the instant the conscripts were issued a uniform.

OK, so this gets back to a post I made a day or two ago where I said it appears the incursion indicates that Russia has already stripped its frontiers, even the ones that might get attack, of pretty much all combat units.  All that's left are conscripts and various non-military units.  Whatever estimates have been made about Russian forces on the border need to be tossed out the window.  They are apparently paper formations only.

It seems that the explanation for why conscripts were immediately sent to the front after getting inducted is that the biannual intake of conscripts coincides with a biannual release of conscripts.  Meaning, Russia had only days to get new Conscripts to the border to take the place of the older conscripts leaving service.

To the degree this speculation is true tells us a lot about how badly stripped the frontiers are of forces even back in September 2022.  It seems to me that if they hadn't rushed the Fall conscripts into positions within days even the thin facade of a defended border might have disappeared.  Quite a problem considering Ukraine was conducting the Kharkiv offensive at the time and it could have crossed the border if it had wanted to.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.economist.com/international/2023/05/23/what-a-war-tax-means-for-the-global-economy

One way or another, a new era of re-armament beckons. As General Mark Milley, chairman of America’s joint chiefs of staff, told the Senate recently: “Preventing great-power war through readiness and deterrence is very expensive, but not as expensive as fighting a war.” And the only thing more costly than that, as he explained, is losing one.

 

I don't agree with General Milley about some things, but he has this bit 100% correct.

It is actually a fairly long article about the current and future status and effects of global defense spending. Worth your time.

[Battlefront.com]

1.  RUMINT that Russia's Governor of Belgorod Oblast wants to arm 3000 civilians to create a militia.  Yeah, I think we know that isn't exactly at the top of an unstable autocratic regime's ToDo List.

2. Russian Legion and Volunteer units boast about their accomplishments ontop of the captured BTR they captured.  Seems like they might get a few new recruits after this stunt!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13qqroj/belgorod_peoples_republic_rvc_and_the_legion_of/

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13qu8ji/the_russian_volunteer_corps_and_the_legion/

3.  Dimitri did a text translation of the press conference.  The big tidbit here is they claim to have suffered only 2 KIA and 10 WIA, which seems plausible.  They also claimed that Russians shelled their own towns in the same way they shell Ukrainian ones, which is to say without regard to civilians.

4.  "Military" Murz writes what we have long since concluded... Russia squandered its chances of rebuilding some 5.semblance of a functional military this year by tossing new manpower into stupid untrained suicide missions:

5.  Russian frontline report is that Russian EW is blocking Russian ISR far better than it is blocking Ukrainian ISR.

Steve

[Kinophile]

37 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

ISW's May 24th report has

It also has this sardonic gem:

" Deputy-Minister-of-Defense-for-Logistics-turned-Wagner-Group-deputy-commander Colonel General"

Or as the Ivan's say:

Zamestitel' ministra oborony po tylu, stavshiy zamestitelem komanduyushchego gruppoy Vagnera, general-polkovnik

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting.  Seems Prig gave an interview in front of a global map of where Wagner has operations, including some nations not previously known in OSINT circles.  Did Prig do this on purpose?  Likely.  If so, are any of the new locations real?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Another "DOH!" for China to consider... US logistics have had practical lessons on how to get 30% faster at delivering stuff to where it is needed:

Quote

The Europe-based unit in charge of shipping weapons to Ukraine has sped up deliveries by 30 percent compared to the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion last year, said a spokesperson for the U.S. Army’s 21st Theater Sustainment Command.

“We have definitely learned how to be more efficient with our transportation,” the spokesperson said. 

The spokesperson attributed the improvements to increasing experience, after-action reports, and an improved ability to forecast operations.  

The acceleration comes as the U.S. Army relearns Cold War-era techniques for quickly moving soldiers and materiel across the 3,000 nautical miles that separate the U.S. from its European allies. 

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/05/arms-ukraine-flow-30-faster-us-relearns-cold-war-skills/386704/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Nice closeup of a Russian donated T-90A in use by Ukraine:

And it appears that Russia is handing out leaflets to its soldiers that basically says "if you run into a PMC dude, be polite or they might kill you and there's nothing we are going to do about that".

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1661210580835876871

Steve

[Offshoot]

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 If so, are any of the new locations real?

"But in addition to African countries, white markers are also on...New Zealand's Chatham Island."

I smell a troll. There are maybe 800 people there, though it's possible he wants to own the time zone and be the first to know what is happening tomorrow.

Edited May 25, 2023 by Offshoot

[NamEndedAllen]

The hits keep coming:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-claims-ukrainian-drone-boats-attacked-its-navy-ship-off-turkey

Russia’s Defense Ministry (MoD) on Wednesday released a video it claims shows the Russia’s Defense Ministry (MoD) on Wednesday released a video it claims shows the destruction of a Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessel (USV) attempting to attack the Project 18280 Yuriy Ivanov class intelligence ship Ivan Khurs in the Black Sea about 90 miles northeast of Turkey's Bosphorus Strait.

The video, published by the MoD’s official Zvezdanews outlet, shows the last seconds of what it says was a Ukrainian USV approaching the Ivan Khurs. Several tracer rounds, apparently from deck-mounted 14.5mm machine guns, are observed narrowly missing the USV before it turns and is struck on the bow, exploding in a tremendous fireball. destruction of a Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessel (USV) attempting to attack the Project 18280 Yuriy Ivanov class intelligence ship Ivan Khurs in the Black Sea about 90 miles northeast of Turkey's Bosphorus Strait.

The video, published by the MoD’s official Zvezdanews outlet, shows the last seconds of what it says was a Ukrainian USV approaching the Ivan Khurs. Several tracer rounds, apparently from deck-mounted 14.5mm machine guns, are observed narrowly missing the USV before it turns and is struck on the bow, exploding in a tremendous fireball.

Edited May 25, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[Artkin]

6 hours ago, paxromana said:

Well, actually, it was building new watering and coaling stations between the existing ones (Russian Broad Guage Locos carried more water and coal than German Standard Guage ones, so their water/coaling stops were roughly twice as far apart as what the German Locos needed) plus building new maintenance facilities for the German locos ... again, Russian facilities were not 100% interoperable and were, again, roughly twice as far apart as was needed.

The Barbarossa plan was to capture as many Russian locomotives as possible ... but the General Staff miscalculated, German Landsers loved shooting them up and seeing the steam shoot out!

Glantz uses the word "Restoring" switches, water towers etc, so maybe I misunderstood. Thanks. 

[Kinophile]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/kremlin’s-pyrrhic-victory-bakhmut-retrospective-battle-bakhmut

excellent as always

[Kinophile]

y'know, if there's any one thing that contributed to Ukraine lasting this long, it was the fortification of the Donbass front. Russia has lost tens upon tens of thousands trying to break through since Zero day and with nothin but small gains to show for it.

 

[JonS]

3 hours ago, Offshoot said:

"But in addition to African countries, white markers are also on...New Zealand's Chatham Island."

I smell a troll. There are maybe 800 people there, though it's possible he wants to own the time zone and be the first to know what is happening tomorrow.

It's a great place to go if you love seafood and want to lie low for a while but .... there is not a lot to do out there. The filthy rich boltholers from the States tend to bury their underground bunkers either out on Waiheke, near Martinborough, or somewhere down around Queenstown. Where there's, you know. Wine. And skiing. And beaches. And people.

[FancyCat]

Calibre Obscura retweeted a prior tweet, and he isn’t wrong, and as much as the West would like Ukraine to act on the high road, I don’t think Russia, acting the way it did while winning, stalemated, and now potentially losing, will suddenly shape up, and not instead continue double down on terror, and so at the least I expect way more border incursions to occur, with eventually Ukrainian forces at some point.

Russian neonazis or other Russian nationals, no matter, tbh, if the objective is slow boiling the Russian general public, and not freaking them out, choosing Russians to raid is the way to go. Sad to say, most opposition to Putin of the more liberal or moderate variety are somewhat pacifist, or even reluctant to acknowledge the validity of the need to defeat Russia militarily, much less advocate or support Ukraine in reality. 

those Russians who fled Russia aren’t at least to my knowledge, supporting a anti-Putin movement or seeking to stop the war, or joining the Ukrainian armed forces or such, and so, as much as I hope these nasty people die, for now, their objectives align with Ukraine, and it would impolite to betray them and certainly is not high road wise to meat grinder them like Russia does with their conscripts and convicts.

 

[Bulletpoint]

11 hours ago, Lethaface said:

I didn't read the last 7 days because occupied with other stuff but perhaps a fresh thought: why are people even considering stuff? I mean ideally Ukrainians shouldn't use any 'questionable' markings. Ideally there wouldn't be any people with extremist thoughts there. But the reality is different; these people also exist in Ukraine and they also fight in the war.

Sure, but let's at least be honest about it instead of some people saying "Oh, they are not national socialists - they are socialist nationalists, completely different thing" or "Oh, boys will be boys, they are just having fun in the good old Ukrainian style".

When we look at something like AZOV, I don't know how many of their fighters are actually far-right or nazis. But it does seem like there are some. They have been fighting really hard, and that can be exchanged for political power after the war.

11 hours ago, Lethaface said:

But they fight in their own country, against a force invading their country. 

If I my country would be invaded I'd have zero qualms about working together with neighborhood thugs against the invader. That doesn't mean I condone criminality.

We could compare to Afghanistan, also invaded by the Russians (Soviets) back in the eighties. Surely it doesn't matter that the local freedom fighters that we support with weapons and money are a bit too much into an extremist religion? After the Soviets are kicked out, probably they will cut their beards and Afghanistan will turn into a free, democratic, and prosperous country...

 

Edited May 25, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[Seedorf81]

5 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

I don't agree with General Milley about some things, but he has this bit 100% correct.

It is actually a fairly long article about the current and future status and effects of global defense spending. Worth your time.

Well.. what I learned from history, is that armament-races (except for the nucleair one) usually LEAD to "great power wars".

[Kraft]

38 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Well.. what I learned from history, is that armament-races (except for the nucleair one) usually LEAD to "great power wars".

Does history also teach what it leads to when one side arms up and the other doesnt? 

Not aimed directly at you but china has been massively building up its navy in the past decade, while the US one has been downsizing, I guess now people are more willing to accept that a nation that put terratorial conquest of its independent neighbour island into their constitution may not seek peace with its new aircraft carriers and just because we pretend all is and will be fine doesnt change the reality that some despots dont care how many soldiers end up dying if they can get what they want.

 

Quote

In his opening speech at the twice-in-a-decade Congress, held in Beijing from Oct. 16 to Oct. 22, Xi said the CPC will “unswervingly advance the cause of national reunification.”

The Communist Party’s revised Constitution, which came into immediate effect, includes statements on elevating the armed forces to world-class standards and “resolutely opposing and deterring separatists seeking ‘Taiwan independence’.”

 

Edited May 25, 2023 by Kraft

[holoween]

39 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Well.. what I learned from history, is that armament-races (except for the nucleair one) usually LEAD to "great power wars".

arms races are caused by tensions in the relation of great powers. those are also what causes the wars not the arms race.

[Seedorf81]

14 minutes ago, holoween said:

arms races are caused by tensions in the relation of great powers. those are also what causes the wars not the arms race.

I did not say "cause".

Politicians, fears, nationalism, idealism and even economics and a lot of other reasons cause armsraces, yes. But buying/producing more weapons usually urges the "other side" to do the same, and then someone, somewhere, somehow sees or fears that there will be a disadvantageous imbalance, and decides "to strike now, before it is too late".

Chicken and egg conundrum, probably.   

Edited May 25, 2023 by Seedorf81

[Seedorf81]

24 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Does history also teach what it leads to when one side arms up and the other doesnt? 

Not aimed directly at you but china has been massively building up its navy in the past decade, while the US one has been downsizing, I guess now people are more willing to accept that a nation that put terratorial conquest of its independent neighbour island into their constitution may not seek peace with its new aircraft carriers and just because we pretend all is and will be fine doesnt change the reality that some despots dont care how many soldiers end up dying if they can get what they want.

 

 

But still, no war.

[JonS]

26 minutes ago, Kraft said:

while the US one has been downsizing

it really hasn't.

There might be fewer meatsacks in uniform now than there were at the height of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, but so what? Despite fewer service members, the US continues to spend more than the next 10 or 12 nations on defence, just as it has done since ... I don't know? 1980? And yes, there is corruption and profiteering in the US MIC, just as there is in every enterprise (and every MIC) where literal billions of dollars are sloshing about. 

So guess all that money is going on, if it isn't going on wages?

Hint: it's technology. Fewer service members leveraging more technology to inflict more pain at less physical cost. That's been the US way of war since at least 1940, and they're really good at it by now.

Edited May 25, 2023 by JonS

[holoween]

3 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

I did not say "cause".

Politicians, fears, nationalism, idealism and even economics and a lot of other reasons cause armsraces, yes. But buying/producing more weapons usually urges the "other side" to do the same, and then someone, somewhere, somehow sees or fears that there will be a disadvantageous imbalance, and decides "to strike now, before it is too late".

Chicken and egg conundrum, probably.   

sorry i misunderstood your point.

[Seedorf81]

Just now, holoween said:

sorry i misunderstood your point.

No worries, mate, no sorry needed, but nice to read. Thnx.

[Seedorf81]

Zelensky advisor Michaelja Podoljak on counter-offensive expectations.

Real info or cloak and dagger-stuff?

[Kraft]

21 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

But still, no war.

? Can you clarify your point here?