How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

They have been pushing the boundaries on this for a bit now, but with a very questionable amount of internal support.  The real issue is China, but the supplying of arms to Ukraine may be part of a strategy to loosen the public perception.

Pacifist Japan unveils biggest military build-up since World War Two | Reuters

Japan approves long-range weapons to counter growing threats from China, North Korea and Russia | CNN

Japan is supposedly retiring most or all of it FH70 towed 155s as they bring on a new self propelled model. I am sure Ukraine would be delighted with any and all of them they wanted to send.

[Battlefront.com]

Commander of 3rd Assault Brigade, COL Andriy Biletsky, posted some comments that Russian forces are not as unmotivated, under equipped, or "stupid" as others have said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-top-ukrainian-commander-fighting-around-bakhmut-says-military-experts-who-portray-russian-soldiers-as-only-stupid-and-miserable-are-wrong/ar-AA1bte3o?cvid=1cdf10e8faea46b7bafc1ba670ab0645&ei=43

And yet, a video from 3rd Assault Brigade shows three prisoners, one of which clearly isn't well equipped (track suit!):

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13oaxdb/the_third_stormtrooper_took_prisoners_near_bakhmut/

Putting aside the well documented Human Wave attacks with prisoners, it does seem that the majority of Russian troops are at least interested in fighting. Or at least staying in their bunkers to be killed.  They also seem to be adequately equipped with small arms, though AT weapons do seem to be in rather short supply compared to Ukraine's forces.

It also seems that the quality level of Russian units is wildly inconsistent (still).  Here's a report claiming that Russia lost 4 companies' worth of men somewhere in the south (I do not know where the Tavriia Grouping' AO is):

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/20/7403096/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

First video I've seen of FV-432 (or variant) in Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1659969708664266752

Another batch of M777s on the way.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1659767805674242048
 

Who gave Ukraine BV-206 Hägglunds?  Lots of countries operate these under their own designations, but I don't recall seeing any mentioned.  I don't know why, I think they are WAY sexier than M113

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1659764796525273091

Steve

[dan/california]

They are remarkably stubborn about dying in those holes, at least in a lot of the video we get. They seem to hold out past any obvious military utility, unless making the Ukrainians expend two more grenades counts as military utility. Ukraine is going to need a lot of follow on forces to take reduce entrenched positions while the spearheads keep going. 

[kevinkin]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAVK6GmdNwE

Is this the AFV that Steve mentioned? 

Edited May 22, 2023 by kevinkin

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAVK6GmdNwE

Is this the AFV that Steve mentioned? 

Nope, that's a CV-90.  BV-206 is a small articulated tracked all weather, all ground conditions, amphibious awesomeness.  Here's one being used by civilians in an offroad course:

Many militaries use these.  US Army had a bunch of in Alaska for a while, but for some reason surplussed them years ago despite having no adequate replacement.  I almost bought one in pretty good condition.  Maintenance and transportation costs made me opt out.  It's a fine vehicle if you have access to standard parts and a low bed transporter, otherwise it's a little challenging.

Steve

[kevinkin]

OK thanks. I did see those and was not sure between them and the type I posted. An articulated vehicle like that was used in Greenland and across the north to build the DEW line. There are a couple a documentaries on building the DEW line at youtube. Some consider the line as big of a engineering challenge as Apollo. Probably not, but something to consider. It was a massive logistic challenge for sure. 

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's report for May 21st had a bunch on Bakhmut, of course.  Nothing new, but as always there is something worth posting here:

Quote

Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated the Wagner Group and the Russian military on May 21 for capturing Bakhmut.[15] Putin directly attributed the capture of the city to Wagner mercenaries, while noting that Russian regular forces provided “necessary support and flank protection” for the Battle of Bakhmut. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) similarly announced that Russia captured Bakhmut because of Wagner assaults in the city and aviation and artillery support from the Russian Southern Grouping of Forces.[16] Putin and the MoD likely directly acknowledged Wagner’s responsibility for the capture of Bakhmut to avoid a repetition of the backlash that followed their immediate failure to do so when Wagner captured Soledar on January 12.[17] Putin’s acknowledgement of Wagner’s role in Bakhmut is the first time that he himself has directly credited Wagner with a battlefield victory. Putin likely took this step because Prigozhin has thoroughly established Wagner’s responsibility for operations in Bakhmut within the Russian information space. Putin and the MoD likely sought to mitigate Prigozhin’s ability to claim sole responsibility for the capture of Bakhmut by emphasizing that regular Russian forces aided in the effort.

Interesting that Putin gave credit to both Wagner and MoD for the capture, whereas (not surprisingly) Prig said it was pretty much all him. 

Steve

[kevinkin]

Putin's Gettysburg Address. Excuse me while I break xyz ... 

[Rokko]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

To the best of my knowledge Russia has yet to shoot down even one GLMRS.  What has been reported is that they've messed with the guidance systems through EW.  The missiles hit will full force, but not exactly where they were aimed.  I've seen no reports as of yet to detail how many times this has happened and to what degree accuracy was affected.

Steve

From the RUSI publication "Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine":

Quote

Russian air defences have become significantly more robust since the autumn of 2022. Complexes
of SA-21 and SA-23 are now stationed around key logistical and C2 hubs. Critically, they
appear to have SA-15 and SA-22 connected to their fire control radars, significantly improving
the situational awareness and track data quality of these short-range air defence (SHORAD)
systems. This has had two principal effects. First, the long-range radar, combined with systems
such as the 48Ya6 ‘Podlet-K1’ all-altitude radar, have proven highly effective in denying airspace
to Ukrainian aviation. Second, Russian SHORAD systems have massively improved their point
defence efficiency. Along with the successful interception of most high-speed anti-radiation
missiles (HARMs) fired by Ukrainian aircraft, the Russian air defence network is now assessed to
be achieving a significant number of intercepts against GMLRS munitions.

 

Personally I do wonder that longer range (and larger) missiles like ATACMS would be the silver bullet many make it out to be, given that it would probably also be easier to shoot down, although I do suspect they might force the Russians to re-calibrate their AD network and spread their assets thinner/further out, likely at the cost of effectiveness against shorter range threats.

Edited May 22, 2023 by Rokko

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Something was heavily hit in Dnipro this night:

 

Very heavy missile strike was on Dnipro this night, comparable to Kyiv on 16th of May:

- 20 Shakheds (all shot down)

- 4 Kh-101/555 (all shot down)

- 5 Kh-22 (no interceptions)

- 2 Iskander-M (no interceptions)

- 5 S-300 (no interceptions)

One of targets was State Emergency Service. Were destroyed about 20 vehicles, one servicemen was wounded. 

We need at least two Patriot PAC-3 more, because as I assume, now we have one PAC-3 from USA and one PAC-2 from Germany.

Edited May 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Fighterbomber TG indirectly confirmed lossing of Su-35. He just says that coordinates of S-300 (on screen) he as if got from Ukrianian informators two days ago and he handed over its to command chain, but... as he writes further, nothing happened - if Russian AD and AF managed to reduce time gap between target detection and reaction in frontline zone, that information about targets in close and deep rear still processed very long time on very bulky command chain of different HQs, so decisions is making with big delay and thus, SEAD missions still mostly ineffective. And in this time happened the same - crew of S-300 did their work and went away for awards

  

Edited May 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

ob Lee commenting on a report that Wagner's losses were much higher in natural terrain than in the urban environment.  He suspects it is because it's much easier to move around and survive in an urban fight if you know nothing compared to largely open and mixed terrain:

 

Is it not the first thing that Combat Mission teaches you, that in the infantry fight cover differential is the king? There is less of it when shooting building to building than advancing in the open vs trench lines.

[_Morpheus_]

Interesting...
 

[Beleg85]

[deleted, crossposted]

Edited May 22, 2023 by Beleg85

[TheVulture]

Brief aerial footage of the (Russian) Grayvoron border post in Belgorod Oblast looking rather the worse for wear: https://t.me/operativnoZSU/97387

Fire and explosions also reported in Zamostye, a few km north of Grayvoron: https://t.me/Tsaplienko/32273

Also reports of widespread shelling of multiple Russian villages in the area up to 10km or so away from the border:

https://t.me/breakingmash/44210

Quote

Right now there is a massive shelling of the Graivoronsky district of the Belgorod oblast.

According to our data, the villages of Novostroevka-Pervaya, Kozinka, Bezymeno, Dobroe, Glotovo and Golovchino have been covered by the Armed Forces of Ukraine for more than an hour. Reportedly, one person died.

 

[cyrano01]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Commander of 3rd Assault Brigade, COL Andriy Biletsky, posted some comments that Russian forces are not as unmotivated, under equipped, or "stupid" as others have said:

 

 

More or less in line with this from RUSI

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/meatgrinder-russian-tactics-second-year-its-invasion-ukraine?fbclid=IwAR09LOJ_FlPF4mA8cCKwyzxYalTxYZQQtVh8RN1c5WqGR_IKaa-d7goZl_Y

 

Although the suggestion is that Russian qualitative improvements are still very much reactive and chasing the curve rather than ahead of it.

 

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Rokko said:

From the RUSI publication "Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine":

 

Personally I do wonder that longer range (and larger) missiles like ATACMS would be the silver bullet many make it out to be, given that it would probably also be easier to shoot down, although I do suspect they might force the Russians to re-calibrate their AD network and spread their assets thinner/further out, likely at the cost of effectiveness against shorter range threats.

Here is the full document: https://static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russian-Tactics-web-final.pdf

First time I have heard any credible reporting that the RA is capable of intercepting HIMARs - albeit within a pretty narrow context.  All other sources of RA AD on HIMARs is a cesspool of Russian propaganda.

However, a lot of this report does ring true on what needs to be prioritized in supporting the UA - and it is not tanks or F16s.  It is artillery, counter-battery specifically along with ammunition. EW - particularly C-UAS. Assault Engineering. And training.

The authors themselves put a lot of provisos up front. What is curious is that if the RA has solved for a lot of UA capability, then why have they continued to fail on the offence?  For example if thermal camouflage is so effective then why are Russian tanks still staying back kms?  If they have created advanced tactical C4ISR networks, why are those tactical units still unable to really make gains?

Of course the UA, which is the primary source of the information of this report are not stupid.  It is in their best interest to emphasize the challenges in order to build up sufficient support for the upcoming offensive.  I would not accuse the interviewed pers of outright lying but emphasis in a certain direction does make a lot of sense. I recall hearing similar stories back last summer as well.

One way or the other we are going to find out just how robust the RA defence is or is not. I strongly suspect the RA is as capable as described in this report, however, only in selected and prioritized locations.  That is a massive frontage that they are trying to hold with a severely mauled force. The ability to create and sustain a massive HIMARs-proof wall of AD in depth along a 850km frontage is highly doubtful. As is an ability to sustain indirect fires superiority, everywhere.

Now if Russia is able to do this, however, it can only do it on static defence.  And if the UA cannot crack it.  Well we truly have entered into a defensive warfare primacy era.  Corrosive warfare for the UA will have been blunted and we are back to slow grinding attrition that could take years.  Personally, I do not believe this is the case.  Too many signs of systemic failures within the Russian military machine. I also do not see the RA able to match or cope with Ukrainian C4ISR superiority at operational and strategic levels.  

Out of all of this the largest threat is evolution of Russian AD - if the RA can start to create scions of Iron Dome then a key pillar of the UA capability suite starts to fail - long range precision fires.  If that goes, then the ability to interdict LOCs/C-moves, hit RA C2 nodes and hammer logistics becomes challenged.  So I am not sure what advanced SEAD capabilities we have in the back but I would start shouting about them far more than tanks, F-whatever’s and better missiles.  That and other long range systems that RA AD cannot solve for, like stealth mesh net drone swarms.

The authors also hit on the primacy of evolving tactics and training.  The problem here is that the west doesn’t have that.  We have our tactics and training, of which there is little proof of their effectiveness on these battlefields. The experts on whatever this war has turned into are in the UA fighting it.  We can support them on the basics, such as field craft, small unit organization etc.  But the larger evolutions are well outside out experience - that one is going to have to be the UA, and then we can hire them to teach us once this war is over.

In warfare the answer to an evolving opponent is very simple: evolve faster.

Edited May 22, 2023 by The_Capt

[kraze]

1 hour ago, TheVulture said:

Brief aerial footage of the (Russian) Grayvoron border post in Belgorod Oblast looking rather the worse for wear: https://t.me/operativnoZSU/97387

Fire and explosions also reported in Zamostye, a few km north of Grayvoron: https://t.me/Tsaplienko/32273

Also reports of widespread shelling of multiple Russian villages in the area up to 10km or so away from the border:

https://t.me/breakingmash/44210

 

Looks like Belgorod Peoples Republic is fighting Kremlin Junta in a civil war.

[Fenris]

More Cyclops strong point footage.  UKR repel a pretty half arsed counter attack.  What are the slow moving projectiles - RPG rounds?

 

[Fenris]

Linked on Ilija Ponomarenko's feed - I have no idea what this really is, if it's 'real' or just epic trolling - stay tuned I suppose

 

Edited May 22, 2023 by Fenris

[Beleg85]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3712507-training-of-ukrainian-pilots-on-f16-fighter-jets-already-begun-borrell.html

Borrell reportedly said that training of UA pilots on F16 already begun. Question reamains- did he spill the bean (again) or projecting his own hopes.

 

 

 

[Elmar Bijlsma]

5 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Linked on Ilija Ponomarenko's feed - I have no idea what this really is, if it's 'real' or just epic trolling - stay tuned I suppose

Seems like they are trying to force Russia to respond to an attack on Holy Mother Russia, in a conveniently far out of the way place from where the real fighting is expected.

 

It could indicate that the long awaited attack is near. You don't do diversionary attacks like this if you aren't ready to go in 2-3 days.

[DesertFox]

Would be interesting to see, if that spark spreads out.

 

 

[Beleg85]

24 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Linked on Ilija Ponomarenko's feed - I have no idea what this really is, if it's 'real' or just epic trolling - stay tuned I suppose

It was expected Russian Volunteers will try to repeat last (considered very successfull, as word goes) action. What is interesting  now is they come back in force, with both Russian formations fighting on UA side and probably supporting Ukrainian armour, artillery etc.

The main issue is if this is again just to humiliate Kremlin or to draw back some larger Russian force to protect the border. 2-3 more such raids and Putin will have real problem with it.

Meanwhile, nice coordinated PsyOps:

 

Edited May 22, 2023 by Beleg85