How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, DavidFields said:

Thank you for the courteous replies to my post.

Or, 3.  The primary purpose of the flank attack was to ensure the withdrawal from the city of Bakhmut was not hampered?

Yeah, good point of breaking that out separate from my other two.  I had thought of it as being lumped in with the first, but you are correct that it is its own thing.

It might take a while to see if Ukraine thought that punching back the flanks might allow it to keep control of the remaining portion of Bakhmut *or*, as you suggest, securing the flanks to make an orderly withdrawal easier was Ukraine's plan all along.  Definitely not clear at this point.

11 minutes ago, DavidFields said:

I think I learned from this forum that Bakhmut was not strategically important, and also that advance planned, massed, artillery grid fires against fixed or small geographic areas is one thing that Rus seems to be able to do.

Bakhmut is like Izyum or Kherson City in that if Russia had a functional maneuver force worth noting securing these locations would present opportunities for further advances.  But Russia's military is crap, utter crap.  Securing Bakhmut is no more useful to Russia's war aims than a random patch of forest.  Why?  Because in reality it can't do anything significant with the terrain captured.

11 minutes ago, DavidFields said:

In addition, and yes, as wargammer, I think people like you have tried to make me understand:

1. That to control a position, sometimes it is better not to occupy it, but to be able to put effective fires in and around it.  (Which, possibly, the two UKR flank positions can do to the Bakhmut area, if they do not withdrawal nor get pushed back.)

Yes, denial of an area is often as good, if not better, than actively possessing it.  Wagner gains nothing by sitting in Bakhmut because it can't drive westward and yet will have to endure pressure from three sides if it stays.  Wagner could withdraw, but it lacks the artillery assets to dissuade Ukraine from reoccupying it.  So Wagner has to decide if it is worth staying, and apparently it has decided it isn't.

11 minutes ago, DavidFields said:

2. If an opponent does "recon by pushing units ahead, and watching what blows them up", a counter to that is to move the defense revealed units (over an hour, day, week--depending on the operational level), so that no effective information is gained by that recon style.  This, from what I have read here, is something Rus has largely not solved for.  And thus a dispersed, mobile, defense by UKR west of Bakhmut will likely be effective?

It is likely to be effective in this case more because Russia no longer has a force capable of exploiting a breakthrough of a contested sector of front.  In fact, it's not clear if it ever had such a force.  Therefore, the most likely scenario here is that whatever forces Russia might keep in Bakhmut, if any, will just sit there out of spite rather any real military purpose.

11 minutes ago, DavidFields said:

Again, giving Rus the choice of commiting high quality offensive troops to try pursue, or letting the area go quiet.

At this point Russia doesn't have such a choice because it has run out of offensive capable units at the scale needed to move beyond Bakhmut.  Russia will likely instead try to push back Ukraine's flanking positions and be happy with that.

Of course, once the full counter offensive starts everything is up in the air.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

I get it, sort of like Saturday Night Live. I will chill out. 

Thank you.  Think of it this way, if your daytime posts weren't really good then I might not notice your night time posts as much.  So, in a way, you're getting a compliment.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/05/ukraine-victory-russia-defeat/674112/

It’s Not Enough for Ukraine to Win. Russia Has to Lose.

Anything less will encourage Russian imperialism and embolden autocrats around the world.

 

He states it perfectly.

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Let's not over think this. If Putin's Russia opens up negotiations they are defeated.  At that point there won't be a ceasefire until the terms are in the favor of Ukraine and the west. There seems to be a large group having a common interest in the war continuing almost forever.

And there is a large group that would have loved for Ukraine to have surrendered long before now so they can get back to business as usual.  The US has its fair share of such people, but Europe has a lot more.  Certainly India and China want the war over and don't care what happens to Ukraine.  Therefore, there is real pressure to make a bad peace deal with Russia that is short sighted and self serving.  In fact, it is exactly how we got the Minsk Agreements.

29 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

The former ambassador added nothing. What we don't want is to open up talks which would be a sign of weakness. So if Russia does, that's a good position to be in. Be happy and force it down their throat. You don't have to be a Princeton Grad to be wary of Putin for goodness sake.  

If Russia comes to the table that is definitely a sign of weakness.  But as we've discussed here, pretty much nobody thinks Putin will ever sign anything that isn't lopsided in its favor.  So if he offers to sign a peace deal, we can be assured that it will not bring peace.  Because some have an interest in ignoring this reality, I think it is useful for influential people (and yes, an ex-Ambassador to Ukraine is influential no matter what the schooling pedigree) to be sounding warnings.  The louder the warnings, the better.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/05/20/world/russia-ukraine-news#heres-why-biden-reversed-course-on-ukraines-f-16-request

“When it comes to the question of escalation, of course, the United States government is a learning organism,” Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden’s national security adviser, said on Saturday morning in Hiroshima. “This conflict has been dynamic. It has unfolded over time.” So, he said, Mr. Biden’s decisions have kept up with Ukraine’s changing needs.

 

Jake Sullivan makes his case. 

Quote

Some experts warn that Mr. Putin hasn’t dropped his nuclear threats; just delayed them. “Putin is not waiting for a misstep by the West,” Kevin Ryan, a former defense attaché at the American embassy in Moscow, wrote recently in “Russia Matters,” a website run by the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard that examines Russia’s strategic choices.

They are still hung up on the risk of nuclear escalation. I find the logic of waiting until their casualties pass 500,000, and THEN getting NATO involved and Russia more isolated than North Korea unconvincing.

[chrisl]

3 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Bakhmut:  I can't wait until we get panicked RU radio intercepts saying "where's arty support?!!!  We're being overrun!"  Folks here on the forum will know the arty support was spent leveling the Bakhmut back in April & May.  And we'll rejoice.  This is like some computer wargame where player hopes by grabbing one mid objective they can squeeze out a draw, no matter the cost.

 

That would require the overrun Russians to have enough radios to even get on the air.

[kevinkin]

KYIV, May 20 (Reuters) - Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said on Saturday the situation in Bakhmut was critical, with the Ukrainian troops maintaining a defence in the southwestern part of the city.

"Heavy fighting in Bakhmut. The situation is critical," she said on the Telegram messaging app. "As of now, our defenders control some industrial and infrastructure facilities in the area and the private sector." (Reporting by Olena Harmash, Editing by William Maclean)

Report from about 5 hours ago. Is this a good kind of critical or a bad kind of critical? I believe it's good and the Minister is making a rallying statement. 

[DesertFox]

Ajee Ajoo Oranje Go!

 

 

[womble]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup.  Ironically, several of us here several times have made cracks about paying Wagner to leave the frontline.  If the rumors are true, that seems to be (in a sense) what's happening.  i.e. it's spotted a better business opportunity elsewhere.

The "PMC" label truly is a fig leaf though, isn't it? Wagner will go where Putin wants it to, if it has any significant assets to send there. That they are hoping to be relieved by the Army in Bakhmut is probably indicative that they can't expect to stay there if UKR try and push them out. That they're then being pulled out of the UKR warzone entirely is an admission that they're no bloody use there in the first place*. If they were "real mercenaries" they could, indeed, have been paid to defect or withdraw, but they aren't, they're an organ of Putin's control, in Putin's control.

* Or it's a sign that Putin is trying to line up some sort of "Job done" exit strategy. Hopefully the renewed additional commitment by the G7 nations in the last 24 hours has shaken the kleptocrat-in-chief's confidence that this will be successful, if it was his plan...

 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

It's obvious what I disagree with and the quality of the posts are not up for you to decide on alone commissar. 

Again and again with the heedless agression.

[Battlefront.com]

Excellent AAR video of the early Russian attacks into Kharkiv.  Anybody who was reading this thread at the time will recognize most of these battles, except there's way more video footage and seemingly solid analysis.

Those recon units that got the stuffing knocked out of them in Kharkiv proper were Spetsnaz.  At the time it was kinda assumed due to the abandoned vehicles, but now apparently confirmed.

 

[danfrodo]

Sounds like Zelensky killing it on the world stage.  Paywall, sorry.  What if he can get more countries to move into the plus column for UKR?  Not all countries would give aid but it would at least get them out of countries that turning a blind or neutral eye to Putin's murderous agressions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/20/us/politics/zelensky-g7-japan.html

 

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, womble said:

The "PMC" label truly is a fig leaf though, isn't it? Wagner will go where Putin wants it to, if it has any significant assets to send there. That they are hoping to be relieved by the Army in Bakhmut is probably indicative that they can't expect to stay there if UKR try and push them out. That they're then being pulled out of the UKR warzone entirely is an admission that they're no bloody use there in the first place*. If they were "real mercenaries" they could, indeed, have been paid to defect or withdraw, but they aren't, they're an organ of Putin's control, in Putin's control.

* Or it's a sign that Putin is trying to line up some sort of "Job done" exit strategy. Hopefully the renewed additional commitment by the G7 nations in the last 24 hours has shaken the kleptocrat-in-chief's confidence that this will be successful, if it was his plan...

 

For sure Prig does what the Kremlin says.  This is why nobody has ever bought the "plausible deniability" of Prig's murderers.  It's a state run op in all but name.

That said, Prig's in charge of real mercenaries.  They legally do not have to do what Putin tells them to do.  And that still matters because the regime is still trying to maintain some degree of "rule of law".  So if Prig says to Putin, "we're spent here, but we'll be happy to kill people in Sudan" then Putin is unlikely to say no.  Plus, I'm sure Putin gets a cut of whatever Prig's murderers steal in Africa, so there is that too.

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

7 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Sign of things to come.

 

Speaking of China, Here is how Zelensky made it to Japan from the KSA.

Did not know Zelensky was travelling on a French Air Force plane, or as I should now say French Air and Space Force.

[dan/california]

Apparently this is another case where we multiple viewpoints of the same fight. You have to love the Russians determination to detonate  every mine in Ukraine with an AFV.

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Again and again with the heedless agression.

My intent is not to be aggressive. Nor passive. Just voicing my take on things using various styles of prose. Where would we all be if we didn't let our hair down now and then? 

Edited May 20, 2023 by kevinkin

[DesertFox]

Ben Hodges and Mick Ryan on the article in the atlantic

 

 

 

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Let's not over think this. If Putin's Russia opens up negotiations they are defeated.  At that point there won't be a ceasefire until the terms are in the favor of Ukraine and the west.

Ok let’s play “How Many Reasons Why Russia May Open Up Negotiations That Are Not An Immediate Sign Of Defeat” - all the College Boys chime in.  I will start:

- Shifting the strategic narrative/reframe the war in an attempt to demonstrate that they are the reasonable ones and start down a road to victimology that may appeal to certain political parties in the west who have their heads in warm dark places while they listen to “experts” with big mics, empty heads and a serious lust for more money and power.

- To create uncertainty in the European alliance and NATO as some nations just want this to be over and renormalize. 

- A ploy to pull China into this in some sort diplomatic tag team. China enters the side of “Putin the Reasonable” and leverages it towards a win for them both.

- The Russians simply stall for time in a hope to slow down the UA in a hope for a battlefield reverse.

- To play up to a domestic audience, with never any real intention of ceasing the conflict.

- Because Putin is finished and we wind up negotiating with a bunch of separate goons, none of whom actually represent the Russian people.

- Putin is not finished but wants us to believe it and over reach.  Link to playing for time and dumber political machines moving into power.

- Random irrational objectives that we can only guess at.

Now just for you - go look up Dunning-Kruger and think about it for awhile. And did you just walk into Steve’s house and tell him to shut up and sit down?  Seriously, how does that get right on any political spectrum?  And we are at Ignore.

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok let’s play “How Many Reasons Why Russia May Open Up Negotiations That Are Not An Immediate Sign Of Defeat” - all the College Boys chime in.  I will start:

- Shifting the strategic narrative/reframe the war in an attempt to demonstrate that they are the reasonable ones and start down a road to victimology that may appeal to certain political parties in the west who have their heads in warm dark places while they listen to “experts” with big mics, empty heads and a serious lust for more money and power.

- To create uncertainty in the European alliance and NATO as some nations just want this to be over and renormalize. 

- A ploy to pull China into this in some sort diplomatic tag team. China enters the side of “Putin the Reasonable” and leverages it towards a win for them both.

- The Russians simply stall for time in a hope to slow down the UA in a hope for a battlefield reverse.

- To play up to a domestic audience, with never any real intention of ceasing the conflict.

- Because Putin is finished and we wind up negotiating with a bunch of separate goons, none of whom actually represent the Russian people.

- Putin is not finished but wants us to believe it and over reach.  Link to playing for time and dumber political machines moving into power.

- Random irrational objectives that we can only guess at.

Now just for you - go look up Dunning-Kruger and think about it for awhile. And did you just walk into Steve’s house and tell him to shut up and sit down?  Seriously, how does that get right on any political spectrum?  And we are at Ignore.

My vote for post of the day.  The overriding theme in all the negotiation points above is that RU w Putin will always be working in bad faith, both externally and internally, waiting for the day to get revenge & 'lost' power. 

[dan/california]

Just to get back to a long running theme:

Ukraine seems to be turning out these kamikaze quad copters for ~$750 according to published reports. Even if the militarized version from a Western defense contractor comes in at TWENTY times the cost, that is $15,000 to kill an AFV without even poking your head above the berm. So you have to be able to stop these little monsters, or your mechanized forces are just really expensive, really stinky, bonfires. 

[sburke]

3 hours ago, womble said:

The "PMC" label truly is a fig leaf though, isn't it?

Nope, folks have just misunderstood.  It really stands for Putin's Military Criminals.

[billbindc]

11 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, how cool would it be of Bakhmut turns into a Russian Stalingrad?  I mean a lot to ask for but a boy can dream…

Feeling better every day that my argument that the Russian war has more and more been fought to control the Kremlin instead of to take Ukraine.

[Probus]

19 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Just to get back to a long running theme:

Ukraine seems to be turning out these kamikaze quad copters for ~$750 according to published reports. Even if the militarized version from a Western defense contractor comes in at TWENTY times the cost, that is $15,000 to kill an AFV without even poking your head above the berm. So you have to be able to stop these little monsters, or your mechanized forces are just really expensive, really stinky, bonfires. 

  I wonder how affective they are against buttoned up armor. They should at least cause advancing armor to stay buttoned up.

  I also wonder how Combat Mission is going to include them in any future modern titles they release. Drone squad with "over the horizon" attacks? Or a mixture of a recon drone with an attack button?

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, Probus said:

  I wonder how affective they are against buttoned up armor. They should at least cause advancing armor to stay buttoned up.

  I also wonder how Combat Mission is going to include them in any future modern titles they release. Drone squad with "over the horizon" attacks? Or a mixture of a recon drone with an attack button?

One of the things that make them so effective is that they can fly around and hit the engine deck very easily.  While the Ukrainians seem to be mostly using RPG-7 warheads due to some combination of availability, and the power limitations of the converted civilian racing drones they are using. A clean sheet design would not have those limitations. You could easily use an RPG-29 warhead, or fire an EFP straight down at the roof. No tank or a AFV on the planet enjoys getting hit with either one.

Edited May 20, 2023 by dan/california

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Now just for you - go look up Dunning-Kruger and think about it for awhile. And did you just walk into Steve’s house and tell him to shut up and sit down?  Seriously, how does that get right on any political spectrum?  And we are at Ignore.

Maybe I could comment on the last two sentences if you could re-write them in a way that makes sense. I didn't walk into any house and tell anyone anything. BTW, ever heard of the idea that a little knowledge can be dangerous? There is another concept: if it takes countless paragraphs to make a position, there is no position to be made. Remember the NYTs is written at an 8th grade level. And if one can't explain an idea to a 8th grader, then the teacher does not know the subject. And there is the famous one liner: keep it simple stupid. 

Edited May 20, 2023 by kevinkin