How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

GreyZone having an absolute fit watching the 3rd Assault Brigade's recent videos:

Dimitri has some nicely translated videos of 3rd Assault Brigade soldiers fighting inside of Bakhmut.  This is the full video and it is WELL worth watching the whole thing.  However, if you have limited time Dimitri was kind enough to break out some small segments into separate videos:

1.  Interview with soldiers talking about "guides" that are used to get units from A to B in the best way possible.  Some combat footage:

2.  Discussing an engagement that resulted in one wounded and one killed:

3.  Recounting of some bravery followed by some footage of a unit moving into Bakhmut.  A funny bit at the end:

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Chris_O reporting that Wagner, as we know it, will soon cease to exist:

It's still a combination of rumor backed by some facts and definitely sound logic, but not confirmed in any way.

It makes a lot of sense.  Wagner is trying to fight a full scale conventional war.  That is not what they were designed to do.  It's not what any PMC is really designed to do.  Mercs are best used on a small scale against inferior opposition.  Can't make money if your guys are dead and the mission is a failure, now can you?

I think Prig and his management team have figured out that Ukraine is a money losing exercise for them.  Ukraine is convincing them that it might soon be worse than that.  Withdrawing what is left of Wagner to enter into new contracts in Africa makes a whole lot of sense.  Throwing away the excess lives also makes sense, at least to Russians.

Steve

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Wagner

I agree with this if I were running the company. Wagner still needs some form of base to operate from to do it's deeds. So how the interaction between the state and mercenary in Russia evolves probably depends on where and whom the base of power comes from. Could China become the base? Not from a geographical POV, but financially? Putting these hoodlums into the front line was very stupid. Might be better to sell their evil off within the evil empire where there value to Putin and China can be maximized as small unit goons. Don't be surprised if the name Wagner just goes away, but those troops do not. Rent a Goon will have a business forever. 

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Chris_O reporting that Wagner, as we know it, will soon cease to exist:

It's still a combination of rumor backed by some facts and definitely sound logic, but not confirmed in any way.

It makes a lot of sense.  Wagner is trying to fight a full scale conventional war.  That is not what they were designed to do.  It's not what any PMC is really designed to do.  Mercs are best used on a small scale against inferior opposition.  Can't make money if your guys are dead and the mission is a failure, now can you?

I think Prig and his management team have figured out that Ukraine is a money losing exercise for them.  Ukraine is convincing them that it might soon be worse than that.  Withdrawing what is left of Wagner to enter into new contracts in Africa makes a whole lot of sense.  Throwing away the excess lives also makes sense, at least to Russians.

Steve

Wagner needs to be hunted the way ISIS and Al Qaeda have been hunted. If they have a compound somewhere in Africa, it goes boom.

[chuckdyke]

See how they deploy their weapon. 

 

[chris talpas]

48 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

See how they deploy their weapon. 

 

They look organized and well disciplined.  They also showed good camaraderie and morale.

[Kinophile]

For the vets here, Ref battlefield medicine.

This netting on the guys head is for what? I assume a good purpose, of course, but what exactly?

NYT front page.

[chrisl]

15 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

For the vets here, Ref battlefield medicine.

This netting on the guys head is for what? I assume a good purpose, of course, but what exactly?

NYT front page.

Some variation of this: https://www.amazon.com/Curad-Tubular-Stretch-Bandage-Dressing/dp/B01BLQ8ANU

It's an easy way to hold the absorptive or sealing bandages in place on things that can be a pain to wrap, like arms and heads.  I have two different sizes of it in the medicine cabinet for road rash bandaging, since you typically get road rash on joints that make them hard to bandage and keep usable.  It's way faster to hold the pad in place and pull that over his head than to do a bunch of turns with vet wrap.

(eta: and I haven't actually crashed and needed to use it since I bought it, so it works really well.)

(another edit: I checked on the box and the "large" size for legs stretches to 24" diameter, so it would cover just about anybody's head, except maybe putin's)

Edited May 20, 2023 by chrisl

[kevinkin]

I read today that 'we" will know when the UA offensive is in full force when "we" see western tanks in combat. I will provide a link when a remember the source.

But, now wait a second. Maneuver warfare is independent of a single system. And western AFVs might be better deployed in exploitation and then holding ground. Who has to prove what to who? Why wouldn't the UA hold all but the urgently needed donated equipment in reverse?  They are going to have a border and skies to defend for years. The issue here is how to produce a defeat that every Russian knows is true. NOW. This will not happen on the ground, but in the skies above the Borderland - Mother Russia. NATO has to impose a no fly zone over UA ops to retake their land. Period. Else, nuclear blackmail works. 

Edited May 20, 2023 by kevinkin

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

For the vets here, Ref battlefield medicine.

This netting on the guys head is for what? I assume a good purpose, of course, but what exactly?

NYT front page.

It is designed to quickly and uniformly hold bandages in place.  I'm certainly no expert, but I've seen these for appendages as well.

[edit - ninja'd!  Sometimes my alerts for new posts doesn't.  That's my excuse and I stick by it!)

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Former US Ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch, said in an interview that future peace talks with Putin should keep in mind that he can't be trusted and will try to wage war on Ukraine again.  So if the deal starts to look good, look at it harder:

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4013146-former-ambassador-to-ukraine-warns-against-being-hasty-in-peace-deal-with-russia/

Always nice to hear an influential voice saying the important bit out loud.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

I missed this excellent, in depth article in NYT last November.  It looks at reconstruction efforts in Ukraine with Irpin as the focus.  It talks about the hopes and challenges as well as the lessons learned from good intentioned, but misplaced, foreign efforts to help rebuild Sarajevo and other places in the Balkans.  Although a little dated, the bulk is very relevant:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/07/magazine/ukraine-rebuild-irpin.html

Steve

[kevinkin]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

influential voice

Or talking head? Give us a break. Please. If the deal looks good that means Putin is out. Take it. She is just another Princeton grad who knows little about the real world. I run into these freaks all the time.

 “If we just stop for a ceasefire, Russia wins because Russia has gained, illegally, territory that it has seized, and that is a problem,” Yovanovitch said. 

And this is a person that might wear diapers to bed. Like POTUS. I hope the women has no influence on anything.  

[chuckdyke]

Treat Putin like the conman he is. That is the most respected title I can bestow on him. 

[Bulletpoint]

So, it seems Bakhmut has finally fallen.

At least according to latest update from Deepstate, the last highrise buildings have now been coloured in red.

It seems the very definition of a pyrrhic victory.

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

So, it seems Bakhmut has finally fallen.

At least according to latest update from Deepstate, the last highrise buildings have now been coloured in red.

It seems the very definition of a pyrrhic victory.

Huh?  Didn’t we just hear that the UA was pushing back at Bakhmut by kms?  Now it has fallen?

[Baneman]

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

So, it seems Bakhmut has finally fallen.

At least according to latest update from Deepstate, the last highrise buildings have now been coloured in red.

It seems the very definition of a pyrrhic victory.

Hah, if it's anything like the asphalt factory, it has to fall at least 3 or 4 more times before it's a done deal.

[TheVulture]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Huh?  Didn’t we just hear that the UA was pushing back at Bakhmut by kms?  Now it has fallen?

The UA has been gaining ground in the hills north and south of Bakhmut, while Russia has continued making incremental gains in the low-lying urban areas.  I've not seen anything suggesting that Russia has completely captured the town itself though,  and given their record of overclaimimg success...

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Or talking head? Give us a break. Please. If the deal looks good that means Putin is out. Take it. She is just another Princeton grad who knows little about the real world. I run into these freaks all the time.

 “If we just stop for a ceasefire, Russia wins because Russia has gained, illegally, territory that it has seized, and that is a problem,” Yovanovitch said. 

And this is a person that might wear diapers to bed. Like POTUS. I hope the women has no influence on anything.  

You realize that this sentiment is really the problem, right?  I mean there is nothing categorically wrong in what the ambassador said for an objective point of view.  Russia has not demonstrated that it will act in good faith during the conduct of this war - the systemic warcrimes are a big hint.  So it would be a very good idea to approach any peace negotiations very carefully.

You do not have to like someone nor agree with their politics, but that does not automatically mean everything they say is incorrect.  Statements or positions need to be weighed against the facts, not affiliations, no matter which end of the spectrum the come from.  

There are exceptions of course, for example if someone has demonstrated habitual lunacy or use of mis/dis-information, sure go ahead and burn them as a source, but the Ukrainian ambassador does not fall into that category as far as we know - unless you have proof beyond her possible post-secondary education?  You are burning her based in affiliation alone or at least it appears that way, and that is intellectually lazy to be blunt.

Finally this whole line of thinking is a significant fracture point that has, and will be exploited by all sorts of players.  It is in fact step 2 in the subversive warfare playbook - widen the fractures that were already there and make them unsealable; the death of compromise.  Step 3 is to harden elements from either side of the fracture into organized and connected collectives that are able to self perpetuate and metastasize - a carcinogenic operation. This is a long standing recipe on how to destroy a society from the inside out.

This is exactly the type of operations Russia did before 2014, and was attempting before this war started.  Every nation that borders Russia is combating this sort of influence.  And it will very likely be what Russia falls back on once this war is over - assuming there is a functioning Russia left.  China is also very good at this game, it is also out of their playbook, but they are much better at it.

So you do not have to agree with the current US president - and sure go ahead and insult him based on ageism. But it is hard to disagree with the results in Ukraine, so far.  This has been one helluva tough one to steer through from a strategic and political level.  And it has not been perfect.  But for navigation through the first real proxy war of the 21st century I gotta give it a B+ so far.

As to the rest of the politics, well you Americans can go argue that - preferably on another thread.

[The_Capt]

18 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

The UA has been gaining ground in the hills north and south of Bakhmut, while Russia has continued making incremental gains in the low-lying urban areas.  I've not seen anything suggesting that Russia has completely captured the town itself though,  and given their record of overclaimimg success...

Ok, how cool would it be of Bakhmut turns into a Russian Stalingrad?  I mean a lot to ask for but a boy can dream…

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Huh?  Didn’t we just hear that the UA was pushing back at Bakhmut by kms?  Now it has fallen?

This was about southern flank of Bakhmut, not about the city itself. UKR troops repelled huge assault on 19th May, but this night Wagners after next push completely seized western part of city and came on easterm outskirts of Khromove village.

UKR troops still hold small piece of Bakhmut in area were was the monument of MiG-17

Russians has thrown in the battle on southern flank part of Wagners and 10th tank regiment of 3rd Army Corps, which was transferred from Avdiivka area and fiercely attack trying to push our trops back. Despite this UKR troops captured enemy strongpoint SW from Klishchiivka - last one before main obstacle - fortified strongpoint in the hill west of Klishchhivka.

  

Edited May 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

[Haiduk]

Despite Russian troops were pushed back from Chasiv Yar - Ivanivske - Bakhmut road it still under shelling and anyway dangerous. Data of video is unknown, but obviously this is May - two burning BTR-4

Author of this post - one of westernres, who suports Russia (or probably Russian, who lives n Germany) %)

 

Edited May 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

This night I could see interception of "Shakhed" over neighbour quarter - projector beams in the sky, machinegun traces, zzzzzzz - "Shakhed's" sound in the air, then flash (likely missile hit), light boom and debrices in flame, falling onto someone's yard. 

18 "Shakheds"were destroyed over Kyiv this night.  

Edited May 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[chuckdyke]

Sign of things to come.