How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

Back to Putin's serial mass murder escapade in UKR.  Here's a summary for today.  Not a lot new but collects Prig's recent string of hit songs in one place while also bringing in a little context for how messed up kremlin politics must be for this to be happening.  Also has today's wagner map that claims the southern bakhmut horn is completely sheared off.  Hopefully tomorrow this will be confirmed. 

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/18/2170032/-Ukraine-Update-Russia-appears-as-fragile-as-a-Faberge-Egg

 

[Centurian52]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

There is no nuance. "Within" and "between" matter zero for THE ONE human population on Earth reproducing over generations with respect to passing on genes that might (and don't) affect individual behavior. Given the time scales, there is only one human population and it is not defined within or between with respect to behavior. If pay for a test that says you are 95% Irish and 4% English and remainder Russian are you a better chess player than your opponent that is 100% Native American? That is, without knowing the training history of your opponent?  And BTW both of those players grew up in Chicago. So within and without are not relevant when it comes to human behavior. 

You continue to demonstrate that you have absolutely no understanding of what I said. Do you even realize that you are attempting to counter me with arguments that are in complete agreement with everything I said?

[Offshoot]

As a flip side to the discussion on the rebuilding of Ukraine, this is an interesting article on the current situation in Mariupol:

‘It’s like the USSR’: residents on life in Mariupol a year since Russian occupation - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/18/its-like-the-ussr-residents-on-life-in-mariupol-a-year-since-russian-occupation

And some before and after aerial photos of Bakhmut:

https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2023/may/18/stark-before-and-after-images-reveal-the-obliteration-of-bakhmut

Edited May 19, 2023 by Offshoot

[G.I. Joe]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

So since Europe seems to finally understand that the way to make it stop is to win the bleeping war, can we go one more step and stand up the Flying Tigers part 2? F-16s flying CAS over Southern Ukraine by August would just the thing to finish off Russian morale once and for all.

"Holy sh**, it's Vipers!"

(Couldn't resist the reference...)

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Fenris said:

A lot of crowing going on over the fence about how much of Bakhmut is under RU control - 98% is their current statistic.

Like we were talking about the other day, the 'mighty' russian army reduced to a war of inches.

 

By contrast, ISW's May 18th assessment has Ukraine's two counter attacks gaining 1500m+ between the two of them:

Quote

Ukrainian forces have seized the tactical initiative and made tactically significant gains around Bakhmut in counter-attack operations on May 18. These operations are a continuation of the localized counter-attacks Ukrainian forces have been conducting for some days and do not reflect the start of a major new operation. Multiple Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces drove through the Russian defensive lines south and southwest of Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut) and northwest of Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut) from the northwest.[1] The milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces retreated from positions north of Sakko i Vantsetti (15km north of Bakhmut) to positions south of the settlement, but that Ukrainian forces have not yet entered the settlement. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Russian forces yielded 570 meters of territory north of Bakhmut, which is consistent with Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar’s statement that Ukrainian forces had advanced 500 meters north of Bakhmut and 1,000 meters south of Bakhmut.[2] Ukrainian Eastern Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Ukrainian forces advanced up to 1,700 meters in the past day, and the Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade stated that the brigade’s counterattacks expanded the Ukrainian salient in the Bakhmut area to 2,000 meters wide by 700 meters deep.[3]

Ukrainian officials indicated that Ukrainian forces have seized the battlefield initiative in the Bakhmut area. Cherevaty stated on May 18 that Ukrainian forces regained the battlefield initiative and are forcing Russian forces to respond to Ukrainian actions, including by transferring Russian Airborne (VDV) elements to Bakhmut’s flanks to defend against the Ukrainian advances.[4] Malyar stated that Russian forces have deployed most of their reserves to the Bakhmut area, very likely to the detriment of other areas of the frontline.[5] ISW recently assessed that the Russian military command is reallocating military assets to the Bakhmut area in order to augment Wagner’s offensive capabilities and to gain a tactical victory ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.[6] The limited nature of Wagner’s offensive operations in Bakhmut compared to the localized Ukrainian counterattacks underscores the loss of Russian initiative in the area. Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner forces began assaulting one of the final Ukrainian fortified areas in western Bakhmut.[7] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official and prominent Russian information space voice Vladimir Rogov claimed that Wagner forces cut the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar road in western Bakhmut on May 17, although ISW is unable to confirm this claim.[8] Prigozhin claimed that Wagner forces advanced 260 meters in Bakhmut and that Ukrainian forces only control 1.28 square kilometers of the city.[9] One milblogger optimistically claimed that Wagner forces increased their pace of advance following Russian ammunition deliveries to Wagner, though Prigozhin’s claimed daily rate of advance has remained largely consistent.[10]

Steve

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

By contrast, ISW's May 18th assessment has Ukraine's two counter attacks gaining 1500m+ between the two of them

Just when I was hoping for some confirmation bias on UKR gains.  Nice .  This is shaping up very nicely so far.  UKR making advances and causing panic w/o even engaging it's reserve-offensive forces. 

I wonder if, many months ago, Putin promised Prig a big cash prize or some other lucrative deal if he captured Bakhmut.  And so Prig needs those last few buildings to get his payout.  Of course, his real payout might be something more permanent than cash.  But we'll see. 

[Fenris]

Indeed.  I very much hope this is true, especially the bolded section.

Cherevaty stated on May 18 that Ukrainian forces regained the battlefield initiative and are forcing Russian forces to respond to Ukrainian actions, including by transferring Russian Airborne (VDV) elements to Bakhmut’s flanks to defend against the Ukrainian advances.[4] Malyar stated that Russian forces have deployed most of their reserves to the Bakhmut area, very likely to the detriment of other areas of the frontline.[5] ISW recently assessed that the Russian military command is reallocating military assets to the Bakhmut area in order to augment Wagner’s offensive capabilities and to gain a tactical victory ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Bakhmut is, of course, THE thing to watch right now.  Not because it's Ukraine's big counter offensive, but precisely because it isn't.  What we're watching is a local counter attack smashing into what has been Russia's primary battlefield of choice for 9 months.  Ukraine's forces have received minimal reinforcements, Russia's side is apparently drawing in significant additional resources.  And yet Ukraine's gains continue to be an order of magnitude larger and faster with less casualties than anything Russia has managed to do for the entire period of this battle.

The obvious thing to wonder is... if this is what a local counter attack against some of the densest Russian positions in some of the most difficult terrain in the theater... what will the main point/s of the counter offensive achieve?

For sure Ukraine is not only smacking the Russians back from Bakhmut for sound military and political reasons (Bakhmut is a symbol for Ukraine as well), but also as a major psychological distraction.  Russia can't afford to lose Bakhmut, yet it doesn't seem able to stop the backwards sliding even with additional forces.  How much more does it have to commit even at the expense of other sectors?

I can easily imagine that Ukraine is allowing Wagner to slowly advance in Bakhmut while the flanks are compromised.  I don't think Ukraine really thinks it can do an encirclement (Russians prefer to run away), it can force Wagner to voluntarily abandon Bakhmut.  I think it might even be worse for Russia to have to leave the city instead of die within it.  Humiliation only, no claim of a brave last stand.

This is looking quite good so far!

Steve

[kevinkin]

30 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

You continue to demonstrate that you have absolutely no understanding of what I said. Do you even realize that you are attempting to counter me with arguments that are in complete agreement with everything I said?

I don't even think you understand what you said yourself. If I am confused by your nonsense, how about are good friends who don't know English well? They must think: "what are these two idiots arguing over." 

[Peregrine]

And in the ISW takeaways:

• The Russian Supreme Court ruled on May 18 that Russian military personnel who voluntarily surrender on the battlefield will be prosecuted under treason charges

Got to love civilian courts feeling the need to inspire military discipline.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

I don't even think you understand what you said yourself. If I am confused by your nonsense, how about are good friends who don't know English well? They must think: "what are these two idiots arguing over." 

I know English perfectly well and I don't know what you two idiots are arguing over.  Knock it off.

Steve

[kevinkin]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is looking quite good so far!

I do have to say the RA is tactically withdrawing. They will say this is just another maneuver to win the war. But when will all this start failing the smell test with any "friend of Russia". (I am really ticked off at Brazil). ISW is now thinking the the RA could be defeated IN PLACE in Ukraine. If the RA takes that seriously, tactical withdrawals might be what we see across the front. Now is the time for the west to pile on with systems Russia can't counter. The only thing is, destroying the RA in place would be oh so nice.  

[danfrodo]

8 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Indeed.  I very much hope this is true, especially the bolded section.

Cherevaty stated on May 18 that Ukrainian forces regained the battlefield initiative and are forcing Russian forces to respond to Ukrainian actions, including by transferring Russian Airborne (VDV) elements to Bakhmut’s flanks to defend against the Ukrainian advances.[4] Malyar stated that Russian forces have deployed most of their reserves to the Bakhmut area, very likely to the detriment of other areas of the frontline.[5] ISW recently assessed that the Russian military command is reallocating military assets to the Bakhmut area in order to augment Wagner’s offensive capabilities and to gain a tactical victory ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

 

 

If things shake out the way we think things are going, this could go down in military history as the single stupidest-while-totally-predictable defeats in the history of warfare.  We're all watching for months saying "how can Putin be so stupid as to burn up so much men & material over nothing when he needs to man hundreds of kms of trench when the ground dries?".  Yet even now, knowing UKR has at least 9 fresh & well equipped brigages ready, he still is doing the stupidest thing he possibly could?  It is just mind boggling.

All winter I've been wondering about RU mobiks and the state they'll be in after months in the line.  Demoralized, terrified, poorly fed, cold, sick, no rotations, uncaring system.  These are supposed to stop what's coming?  Yeah, there's lots of good RU units, but why attack those when there's so many bad ones to choose from.

[kevinkin]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I know English perfectly well and I don't know what you two idiots are arguing over.  Knock it off.

Well if you add another idiot, there is slapstick joke somewhere. The recommendation is sound.  

[Battlefront.com]

31 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Indeed.  I very much hope this is true, especially the bolded section.

Cherevaty stated on May 18 that Ukrainian forces regained the battlefield initiative and are forcing Russian forces to respond to Ukrainian actions, including by transferring Russian Airborne (VDV) elements to Bakhmut’s flanks to defend against the Ukrainian advances.[4] Malyar stated that Russian forces have deployed most of their reserves to the Bakhmut area, very likely to the detriment of other areas of the frontline.[5] ISW recently assessed that the Russian military command is reallocating military assets to the Bakhmut area in order to augment Wagner’s offensive capabilities and to gain a tactical victory ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

 

 

And from two other sections:

Quote

The Ukrainian National Guard’s Main Administration Department of Application Planning Deputy Director Colonel Mykola Urshalovych reported that Russian forces are recruiting additional BARS (Russian Army Combat Reserve) and “Storm-Z” formations composed of criminals to operate in the Lyman direction and that this recruitment signals that Russian forces are critically exhausted.

...

Russia reportedly continues to suffer shortages of combat-ready military personnel and is attempting to exploit all sources of recruitment to sustain the war effort in Ukraine. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Russians are committing remaining Wagner personnel, criminals, BARS (combat army reserve), territorial troops, and conventional units mostly staffed with mobilized servicemen to unspecified frontlines in Ukraine.[53] The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian forces are coercing Russian veterans of the Afghanistan war to undergo military training in occupied Kerch Raion, Crimea.[54] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger published footage showing a Russian veteran who served in Afghanistan in the Avdiivka area.[55] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Russian forces are coercing Ukrainian men into military service and noted that Russians are training Russian prisoners in training camps in Rohove and Mozhnikivka, Luhansk Oblast.[56] Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that personnel of Rosgvardia’s 96th Operational Regiment deployed to Ukraine.[57]

It seems the Russians are reaching the very bottom of their non-mobilization pool of manpower.  This is likely true as we've been following this downward spiral since last year's mobilization was committed to the front earlier this year.  This means that if Russia starts to take serious losses from the coming counter offensive, they will have no choice but to repeat last year's hasty mobilization and chuck meat at the advancing Ukrainians.

Once the counter offensive gets rolling, things could (should!) go downhill very fast on the Russian side.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Various bits:

1.  Two more attacks on Russian rail infrastructure.  First is of switching stations in Kazan, second was a derailment in Krasnoyarsk:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13l4t1u/stop_the_wagons_another_arson_of_relay_cabinets/

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13l4wlq/rospartizan_a_new_wreck_of_a_freight_train_on_the/

2.  UK officially confirms Ukraine has successfully used Storm Shadow already:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/uk-confirms-ukraine-starting-to-use-storm-shadow-missiles/ar-AA1bn9Iq

3.  Russia's top university for training civil servants is undergoing a symbolic purge.  All members who left Russia since the operation are being fired.  I dunno why someone who doesn't show up for work isn't already fired, but I'm just reporting what I see   The article couples this action with the recently announced law that makes it illegal for civil servants to quit their jobs:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/kremlin-purges-russian-presidential-academy-after-major-crackdowns-on-dissent?ref=home?ref=home

4.  Some official comments about the shooting down of the 4 Russian aircraft attribute one of the downings to a Patriot missile:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/18/politics/us-allies-f-16-jets-ukraine/index.html

5.  Yet another article on Russia's nervousness about the Caucuses.  This article is about a pro-Russian Caucuses think tank is accusing the US of fomenting separatism in the region.  The interesting part is to look at the accusations with the usual "if the Russians are saying the other side is doing something, it's probably true that the Russians are doing it".  In this case that the Russians are saying they are concerned about separatism due to Moscow's screwups, so they are blaming the US for it instead:

https://www.eurasiareview.com/18052023-us-and-ukraine-promoting-separatism-in-chechen-circassian-nogay-kumyk-and-ingush-areas-oped/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Article from Meduza, one of the only pre-war Russian independent media organizations and one of the first (if not the first) to go into exile.  They sketch out 4 scenarios for the counter offensive.  While I'm sure most of us would quibble with their take on the status quo of Russian defenses, the options are pretty logical and in line with what we've been talking about here.  In fact, their first scenario is almost arrow for arrow the same as what I outlined a month ago.  Obviously I endorse that one

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/05/18/the-shape-of-things-to-come

Steve

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Yeah, there's lots of good RU units, but why attack those when there's so many bad ones to choose from.

I love this bit!

Quote

 

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/05/16/a-very-grim-portrait

That was one of the messages that we were trying to convey here, that the reality is that this war could go on forever, and you’re better off investing a lot of resources now to win the war and make Putin deal with the consequences at home and figure out how to sell what happened. And in some way, that’s favorable. But it, too, might not work well.

 

They have some pretty good stuff. Unfortunately the rest of the article was uniformly grim in the event of anything short of Russia's defeat in, and eviction from, Ukraine.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

7 hours ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

As we sit and wait for the Ukrainians to kick off their offensive, I am reminded of how Miyomoto Musashi handled a couple duels... he would arrive very late, letting his opponent stew and really mess with their heads.

Bobby Fischer used to do this as well in chess. Worked on the Russians.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I can easily imagine that Ukraine is allowing Wagner to slowly advance in Bakhmut while the flanks are compromised.

Yes, do the Cannae thing!

[Huba]

To be taken with a grain of salt, but here's what GUR thinks about RU monthly missile production is:

25 Kalibr missiles
2 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles
35 Kh-101 cruise missiles
5 ballistic missiles 9M723 Iskander-M"

Not too shabby, but at the peak of the missile campaign they were firing maybe 5 times as many and failed to achieve success.
https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1659492405488254977

Edited May 19, 2023 by Huba

[poesel]

10 hours ago, akd said:

Looks like the four Russian aircraft falling from the sky over Russia in the course of a few minutes was a Patriot ambush:

 

Question: given the range of the AA systems, why do they have to be IN Kiev to protect Kiev? And not somewhere else where attacks on the AA systems wouldn't land on civilian infrastructure?

Or is there an advantage in taking the attacking missile head on? Which would obviously work best if you are the target...

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, poesel said:

Question: given the range of the AA systems, why do they have to be IN Kiev to protect Kiev? And not somewhere else where attacks on the AA systems wouldn't land on civilian infrastructure?

Or is there an advantage in taking the attacking missile head on? Which would obviously work best if you are the target...

For anti-ballistic missile defence, PAC-3CRI has a range of only 20km or so. I'm sure you'd want the launchers to be spaced tightly enough so that they can cover one another. For comparison, there's 50km from Bucha to Boryspol Airport, that would be the diameter of the zone you are defending. The batteries have to be located in the city itself, there's no other way.

Edited May 19, 2023 by Huba

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

To be taken with a grain of salt, but here's what GUR thinks about RU missile production output:

25 Kalibr missiles
2 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles
35 Kh-101 cruise missiles
5 ballistic missiles 9M723 Iskander-M"

Not too shabby, but at the peak of the missile campaign they were firing maybe 5 times as many and failed to achieve success.
https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1659492405488254977

Not sure what to expect, really, but my gut feeling says those numbers are quite low for a country the size of Russia.

Edited May 19, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[paxromana]

18 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Not ure what to expect, really, but my gut feeling says those numbers are quite low for a country the size of Russia.

Not enough Washing Machines arriving home from the Front!