How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[JonS]

The edit is mightier than the pen

Edited May 18, 2023 by JonS

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, akd said:

Looks like the four Russian aircraft falling from the sky over Russia in the course of a few minutes was a Patriot ambush:

 

So since Patriot, Iris-T, and NASSAMS, are all living up to their billing with bells on, does crossing the Dnipro start to look doable? or at least doable enough to make the Russians put a lot more men and equipment on their side of the river?

Edited May 18, 2023 by dan/california

[danfrodo]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

In the US if you don't want to watch a Marvel film you are not imprisoned, degraded, silenced, or murdered if you don't shut up or leave.

No, but I've had to watch some of this ****e and was kinda wishing I'd be murdered instead.  (ye olde 'let the wrong person choose the movie' night).  Then some idiot I used to work w would want to explain the plot to me, as if I would then see the light.  

Steve's making a point of a society self selecting people who are prone to certain personality traits.  We know this has worked w dogs over time, and the famous fox study (ironically, conducted in RU).  And as stated above, we've seen brutal, repressive societies suddenly change dramatically with not just the same genes but the same people!   So kinda hard to figure this one out.

Meanwhile, I am seeing reports that more territory being taken by UKR around Bakhmut while RU desperately trying to drive UKR out of the worthless ruins of the city.

[dan/california]

 

[Huba]

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

So since Europe seems to finally understand that the way to make it stop is to win the bleeping war, can we go one more step and stand up the Flying Tigers part 2? F-16s flying CAS over Southern Ukraine by August would just the thing to finish off Russian morale once and for all.

Has to happen, there surely are people in the West just waiting for an opportunity to fly an F-16 against the Russians, some declared it openly on social media. Should be even easier for the ground crews, for whom the risk od rather minimal, given RU indolence at striking Ukrainan air bases.

Tongue in cheek, I wonder what will be the next fad after F-16s are sent? Some older E-2s could make a difference, what else? Submarines? AAVPs? 

 

[DesertFox]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

So since Patriot, Iris-T, and NASSAMS, are all living up to their billing with bells on, does crossing the Dnipro start to look doable? or at least doable enough to make the Russians put a lot more men and equipment on their side of the river?

It sure does, but I guess before UKR makes that move they will take out a bloody lot of command posts, ammo dumps, logistic hubs, EW Installations and other valuable orc assets including starting some diversionary attacks. I would assume we will see a lot of action in june. I feel we are getting close.

“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

Winston Churchill, The Lord Mayor’s Luncheon, Mansion House, November 10, 1942

[Centurian52]

23 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

So there is a gene for kindness, and no so kindness?

That's not how genes work. It is very rare for a gene to be "for" something specific like that. Most traits are an emergent property of many many genes.

24 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Even if they were, it would take hundreds of generations to effect a population. This timeframe is outside how long societies and their politics even exist. We have to separate physical and behavioral traits. Behaviors of are learned and not inherited. Russians are not genetic misfits. They are not Home sapiens sapiens authoritative. The Russian culture has evolved, but, not locked into a child at birth. You would be hard pressed to differentiate the genomes of Germans and Japanese pre and post war. But their cultures and societies have changed a lot. This can't be natural selection given the timeframe. 

I feel like most of your comment is directed at Steve, not me. In fact I get the distinct impression that you didn't even read the rest of my comment, let alone any of my other comments in this discussion.

As a reminder, I am firmly in that camp that is saying that biology can't account for how Russian behavior differs from the behavior of people from other countries.

[Bil Hardenberger]

As we sit and wait for the Ukrainians to kick off their offensive, I am reminded of how Miyomoto Musashi handled a couple duels... he would arrive very late, letting his opponent stew and really mess with their heads.  Could this be what is happening here? I don't think you can discount it, the Russians have to be pissing themselves with anticipation right now.

Bil

[kevinkin]

 

10 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

I feel like most of your comment is directed at Steve, not me. In fact I get the distinct impression that you didn't even read the rest of my comment, let alone any of my other comments in this discussion.

I read all your comments and my recent one was directed toward your latest. The discussion was over whether Russian behavior at the individual and state level can somehow be assigned to genetics passed down through generations since the establishment of the nation. I think now we can agree that is impossible.  

PS: As a rule I read the comments I reply too. Why not? 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, MikeyD said:

I'm reminded of how certain segments of the American ultra-wealthy like to consider themselves 'genetically superior' to the common rabble. Never mind how great-grandpa had been a prohibition rum-runner and mom is dad's second wife who used to work as a hotel masseuse. But they're definitely 'genetically superior'. Genetics doesn't work like that. 

saw a post of a woman who got nose surgery because she wants her children to have smaller noses.

[JonS]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

saw a post of a woman who got nose surgery because she wants her children to have smaller noses.

https://images.app.goo.gl/KPUt1x3Z34HohZ8U7

[danfrodo]

17 minutes ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

As we sit and wait for the Ukrainians to kick off their offensive, I am reminded of how Miyomoto Musashi handled a couple duels... he would arrive very late, letting his opponent stew and really mess with their heads.  Could this be what is happening here? I don't think you can discount it, the Russians have to be pissing themselves with anticipation right now.

Bil

This is post of the day for sure.  Brilliant analogy.

8 minutes ago, sburke said:

saw a post of a woman who got nose surgery because she wants her children to have smaller noses

Meanwhile SBurke bringing some comedy gold..... except this is probably actually real.  What was that pseudo science feller that Stalin loved instead of evolution?  Lamarke?

[Centurian52]

20 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

I read all your comments and my recent one was directed toward your latest.

If you had fully read my comment you would have seen the following sentence:

2 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

Differences in behavior between populations is almost entirely environmental

You might try rereading it, and keep an eye on the nuance this time. The nuance is pretty important.

[G.I. Joe]

30 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

What was that pseudo science feller that Stalin loved instead of evolution?  Lamarke?

Trofim Lysenko? (Who drew on Lamarck's theories, which were pre-Darwinian).

[Offshoot]

40 minutes ago, sburke said:

saw a post of a woman who got nose surgery because she wants her children to have smaller noses.

Lysenko would be proud - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lysenkoism

And to stir the pot a bit, don't forget about epigenetics and the genetic transmission of trauma - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6127768/

If it is an actual phenomenon in humans, I would say it plays a far greater role in the outlook of Russian society than the underlying gene pool.

[Fenris]

A lot of crowing going on over the fence about how much of Bakhmut is under RU control - 98% is their current statistic.

Like we were talking about the other day, the 'mighty' russian army reduced to a war of inches.

 

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

As we sit and wait for the Ukrainians to kick off their offensive, I am reminded of how Miyomoto Musashi handled a couple duels... he would arrive very late, letting his opponent stew and really mess with their heads.  Could this be what is happening here? I don't think you can discount it, the Russians have to be pissing themselves with anticipation right now.

Bil

Like a good horror movie.  You know it's coming, but if the writing and direction are good, it still catches you by surprise.

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

saw a post of a woman who got nose surgery because she wants her children to have smaller noses.

CRISPR

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

This is post of the day for sure.  Brilliant analogy.

Meanwhile SBurke bringing some comedy gold..... except this is probably actually real.  What was that pseudo science feller that Stalin loved instead of evolution?  Lamarke?

Lamarck was the "original", and Lysenko was the Soviet proponent of it.

( @Offshoot and @G.I. Joebeat me to it but I didn't read far enough first.)

Edited May 19, 2023 by chrisl

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, Centurian52 said:

You might try rereading it, and keep an eye on the nuance this time. The nuance is pretty important.

There is no nuance. "Within" and "between" matter zero for THE ONE human population on Earth reproducing over generations with respect to passing on genes that might (and don't) affect individual behavior. Given the time scales, there is only one human population and it is not defined within or between with respect to behavior. If pay for a test that says you are 95% Irish and 4% English and remainder Russian are you a better chess player than your opponent that is 100% Native American? That is, without knowing the training history of your opponent?  And BTW both of those players grew up in Chicago. So within and without are not relevant when it comes to human behavior. 

Edited May 19, 2023 by kevinkin

[JonS]

39 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Like we were talking about the other day, the 'mighty' russian army reduced to a war of inches.

I half expected to see "grain elevator" and "tractor factory" indicated on the map

[danfrodo]

35 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Lamarck was the "original", and Lysenko was the Soviet proponent of it.

( @Offshoot and @G.I. Joebeat me to it but I didn't read far enough first.)

ah, yes, them there fellers.  Stalin liked science to meet his pre-conceived ideas.  Unlike today, where the authoritarian-minded live in an evidence-based reality.  As Steve said earlier, jewish space lasers are the only possible explanation for wildfires, for example. Yet w/o brave truth tellers we wouldn't have known this undeniable, proven scientific fact that greatly impacts our world.  And Putin denied covid's existence long before the rest of the world realized it was a hoax.  Times sure have changed!

[chrisl]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

ah, yes, them there fellers.  Stalin liked science to meet his pre-conceived ideas.  Unlike today, where the authoritarian-minded live in an evidence-based reality.  As Steve said earlier, jewish space lasers are the only possible explanation for wildfires, for example. Yet w/o brave truth tellers we wouldn't have known this undeniable, proven scientific fact that greatly impacts our world.  And Putin denied covid's existence long before the rest of the world realized it was a hoax.  Times sure have changed!

Jewish space lasers are how I get my popcorn popped.

[Peregrine]

20 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Jewish space lasers are how I get my popcorn popped.

Me too. I have a basket that I attach to my tin foil hat.

[dan/california]

31 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Jewish space lasers are how I get my popcorn popped.

They have app, and outstanding customer service.