How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

14 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Being put into mixed brigades it looks like.  One unit pairing bradleys w the upgraded T55S tanks.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/28/2166439/-Quick-Explainer-Ukraine-s-strategy-of-mixed-force-tank-brigades

what does it all mean? 

What surpised you? Each UKR brigade is "mixed" - 1 (3) tank battalion(s) + 3 (1) mech + 1 mot.inf

[DesertFox]

Hope it is not a typo. More Leo2 for Ukraine.

 

 

Edited May 14, 2023 by DesertFox

[billbindc]

15 minutes ago, Probus said:

Might be time for a "How Hot is Belarus Gonna get?" thread...

I would be pretty surprised if there Putin was really trying to get Lukashenko out of the way. The bottom line is that direct Russian control of Belarus doesn't help Russia to win Ukraine and has every prospect of hurting. The RA doesn't have the forces to create a new front and the Belarus military is likelier to switch sides, refuse, desert as it is to fight. Maintaining order without Lukashenko would also require extending already overtaxed Russian security forces to keep things quiescent. In addition, Belarussians have shown nothing like Ukrainian's willingness to go the mat to drive out the siloviks. Without a general revulsion against a Russian regime, activists aren't enough to engineer an overthrow. Killing Lukashenko and sending in ramshackle Rosgvardia might just create that revulsion. The FSB is internally wired into Belarussia and knows this...so Putin does too.

[The_MonkeyKing]

3 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Hope it is not a typo. More Leo2 for Ukraine.

 

 

The German language one stated "Leopard 1"

[DesertFox]

Just now, The_MonkeyKing said:

The German language one stated "Leopard 1"

Yeah I saw that, but maybe it is  little surprise in the waiting. Time will tell.

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yeah I saw that, but maybe it is  little surprise in the waiting. Time will tell.

When the first Leo2 announcement came from Germany, they stated they were giving one company immediately and a second one later on. Same as with the 40 Marder 1 they stated a further 40 were coming we now saw 20 of that 40 announced.

[Der Zeitgeist]

President Zelensky at the award ceremony for the Charlemagne Price in Aachen.

The entire dilemma of German/European policy on the war in one picture.

[Haiduk]

Summary of Bakhmut and around from UKR TGs

Russians have recovered from sudden UKR strikes and moved additional reservers - both army and Wagner to recapture lost ground. They fiercely counter-attacking, especially on southern flank, but even despite this UKR troops managed to advance some further toward Klishchiivka and in Ivanivskyi forest. Reportedly for now UKR troops advanced on 1,7 km in forest and attached to it treeplant. Units of 5th assault brigade entered to battle (but maybe they were involved recently) on this flank.

Northern flank: UKR troops attacking toward Berkhivka between eastern part of resevoir and railroad in narrow space, trying to capture tree-plants at the "bottle neck" entrance and along railroad. Also Russian strongpoint was captured on other section on northern flank, survived Russian soldiers surrendered. 

Bakhmut city. Situation still hard, Wagners continue assault actions and could achieve some gains in area near crossroads of Levanevskoho and Donbas Liberators streets. 

UKR artillery and sometime HIMARS reportedly caused some strikes on enemy arty.

45th arty brigade strikes at firing positions of D-30 near Bakhmut, destroying field ammo dumps

 

Edited May 14, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

I would be pretty surprised if there Putin was really trying to get Lukashenko out of the way. The bottom line is that direct Russian control of Belarus doesn't help Russia to win Ukraine and has every prospect of hurting. The RA doesn't have the forces to create a new front and the Belarus military is likelier to switch sides, refuse, desert as it is to fight. Maintaining order without Lukashenko would also require extending already overtaxed Russian security forces to keep things quiescent. In addition, Belarussians have shown nothing like Ukrainian's willingness to go the mat to drive out the siloviks. Without a general revulsion against a Russian regime, activists aren't enough to engineer an overthrow. Killing Lukashenko and sending in ramshackle Rosgvardia might just create that revulsion. The FSB is internally wired into Belarussia and knows this...so Putin does too.

Yup, the only reason Putin would have gone after Luka is because he assessed it was the only way to keep Belarus under thumb.  That would require a whole lot of other things being in place that probably aren't, so I don't think it is very likely Luka's bad health has anything to do with Putin.

The most likely scenario is that Putin has long since had a successor in mind from a pool of candidates.  The actual pick to be made at the last minute, so as to keep options open.  Ideally Luka's rubber stamp political apparatus and the military will be "convinced" to support Putin's pick and life will continue on in Belarus as it did before.  Which is to say openly supporting Russia's war on Ukraine and confrontation with the West, but not to the point of direct hostilities over the border.  If the transition goes smoothly, my gut says that there will be no revolution.  However, there are some details that could tip things into at least unrest.  For example if Putin's pick is particularly unpopular, he's appointed with a full term of office instead of serving out the remaining portion of Luka's (~2 years), etc.  Again, I do not know the details of internal Belarus politics work so these are just guesses based on how things often work for power transitions.

What can be sure of is that the opposition in exile will make a lot of noise about whatever happens.  They will agitate for various things that the Belarusian establishment will not grant.  This could spiral out of control similar to 2020.  A misstep by either Belarus or Russia could make things much worse for them, including chain of events that lead to a full on revolution.  At which point the army will likely determine the outcome.  If they sit on the sidelines, the regime falls.  If they join the revolutionaries, the regime falls.  If they actively go out and crush opposition things are uncertain, but I suspect the regime falls.

When Luka dies or becomes incapacitated, things will be on a knife's edge.  One event, and I really do mean ONE event, could mean the regime falls.  Given how stupidly repressive regimes act when backed into a corner, the chances of them doing something that leads to collapse is significant.  Especially because Putin could push the regime into something that they themselves don't think is a good idea.

I put the odds of a revolution in Belarus when Luka is out at minimum 50/50.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Summary of Bakhmut and around from UKR TGs

Russians have recovered from sudden UKR strikes and moved additional reservers - both army and Wagner to recapture lost ground. They fiercely counter-attacking, especially on southern flank, but even despite this UKR troops managed to advance some further toward Klishchiivka and in Ivanivskyi forest. Reportedly for now UKR troops advanced on 1,7 km in forest and attached to it treeplant. Units of 5th assault brigade entered to battle (but maybe they were involved recently) on this flank.

Northern flank: UKR troops attacking toward Berkhivka between eastern part of resevoir and railroad in narrow space, trying to capture tree-plants at the "bottle neck" entrance and along railroad. Also Russian strongpoint was captured on other section on northern flank, survived Russian soldiers surrendered. 

Bakhmut city. Situation still hard, Wagners continue assault actions and could achieve some gains in area near crossroads of Levanevskoho and Donbas Liberators streets. 

UKR artillery and sometime HIMARS reportedly caused some strikes on enemy arty.

45th arty brigade strikes at firing positions of D-30 near Bakhmut, destroying field ammo dumps

 

This is all good news.  The battles for the flanks continue to be favorable for Ukraine in terms of territory and drawing Russian reinforcements to the area.  Since this is the most likely what these attacks were designed to do, all good so far!

Steve

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

What surpised you? Each UKR brigade is "mixed" - 1 (3) tank battalion(s) + 3 (1) mech + 1 mot.inf

Was surprised to see the mix of nato IFVs w T55s, that's all.

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

I would be pretty surprised if there Putin was really trying to get Lukashenko out of the way. The bottom line is that direct Russian control of Belarus doesn't help Russia to win Ukraine and has every prospect of hurting. The RA doesn't have the forces to create a new front and the Belarus military is likelier to switch sides, refuse, desert as it is to fight. Maintaining order without Lukashenko would also require extending already overtaxed Russian security forces to keep things quiescent. In addition, Belarussians have shown nothing like Ukrainian's willingness to go the mat to drive out the siloviks. Without a general revulsion against a Russian regime, activists aren't enough to engineer an overthrow. Killing Lukashenko and sending in ramshackle Rosgvardia might just create that revulsion. The FSB is internally wired into Belarussia and knows this...so Putin does too.

Additional factor is Belarus is still used by Kremlin as "external" ally in various international organizations and for internal use. Artificial crowd to be sure, but quite important from formalistic standpoint typical for autocratic regimes.

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

When Luka dies or becomes incapacitated, things will be on a knife's edge.  One event, and I really do mean ONE event, could mean the regime falls.  Given how stupidly repressive regimes act when backed into a corner, the chances of them doing something that leads to collapse is significant.  Especially because Putin could push the regime into something that they themselves don't think is a good idea.

Btw. in case of death of president, formally power is ceded to Speaker of Council of Republic of Belarus- a post currently held by N.Kaczanava. It was this pro-Russian lady (now under EU sanctions) that reportedly convinced Luka to falsify last elections instead of stepping down, which resulted in massive protests and placed country among most visibly oppressive regimes in the world. She did that more to cover a...s of cleptocratic nomenclature rather than from love for Russia in itself, but worth to note nonetheless.

Edited May 14, 2023 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Was surprised to see the mix of nato IFVs w T55s, that's all.

Stricktly speaking, M-55S is complete NATO-standart vehicle, having except that a hull in common with T-55. And "55" in number )

[DesertFox]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Stricktly speaking, M-55S is complete NATO-standart vehicle, having except that a hull in common with T-55. And "55" in number )

Correct! The main gun is the NATO 105-L7 as in the Leopard 1s or M60s. More details here:

M-55S - The Upgraded T-55 Sent to Ukraine - Tank Historia

[danfrodo]

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

On the other hand, if Vova get crazy, he could try to sweeten his gruelling Ukrainian defeat wirh Belarus incorporation...war is going bad, probably even he understand that, so he may be tempted to show he is still able to shake things up. No logic in it, but there are undoubtedly behind-the-curtain factors we don't know yet.

I could picture Putin thinking "I need a victory... ah, I know!  I'll annex Belarus!  What could go wrong?"  Seriously, is that out of the question for Putin given his history of recent incredibly bad choices and his desperation?  Steve was mentioning how this makes no sense.  Sure, it makes no sense -- which is why it makes sense, you see?  This is why you in the west are always three steps behind Putin's cunning mind! 

Meanwhile, RU moving 'reserves' to stop UKR advances N & S of bakhmut.  That's a bunch more troops that won't be easily moved later when reserves are really, really needed.

[kimbosbread]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think you are missing an important point... I'm talking exclusively of the Belarusian volunteers in military units in Ukraine fighting Russians, not civilian diaspora.

Steve

I assume many of the young who left are city dwellers- there have to be numerous “rural youth” who didn’t have the good fortune to be able to leave, and might fight.

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I could picture Putin thinking "I need a victory... ah, I know!  I'll annex Belarus!  What could go wrong?"  Seriously, is that out of the question for Putin given his history of recent incredibly bad choices and his desperation?  Steve was mentioning how this makes no sense.  Sure, it makes no sense -- which is why it makes sense, you see?  This is why you in the west are always three steps behind Putin's cunning mind! 

Meanwhile, RU moving 'reserves' to stop UKR advances N & S of bakhmut.  That's a bunch more troops that won't be easily moved later when reserves are really, really needed.

I am not so sure Russia could annex a small suburb right now let alone a country of 9 million people.  A second SMO could just as likely shatter the Russian Federation…which means of course it must be on the table as an option given their strategic track record.

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Btw. in case of death of president, formally power is ceded to Speaker of Council of Republic of Belarus- a post currently held by N.Kaczanava. It was this pro-Russian lady that reportedly convinced Luka to falsify last elections instead of stepping down, which resulted in massive protests and placed country among most visibly oppressive regimes in the world. She did that more to cover a...s of cleptocratic nomenclature rather than from love for Russia in itself, but worth to note nonetheless.

My thinking is that whatever the constitutional succession process is, and whether or not it is followed, it won't go unchallenged.  If Putin isn't happy with Kaczanava, he might interfere in some way to push someone else into the office and that will likely start the ball rolling to revolution.  So Putin is likely to not interfere to that degree (yet) even if he's not happy about it. 

Presuming Kaczanava takes office, it is highly probable the opposition will say the move is illegitimate because Luka was illegitimate and call for immediate elections or something similar.  How much opposition?  I haven't a clue because I don't know Belarus well enough to guess (2020 should be an indicator).  But I'm sure it will be greater than zero.  How Kaczanava and Putin react to this is what will likely tip the balance in favor or away from revolution.

It really comes down to how much the new regime is willing to risk looking reasonable in the face of opposition, but still maintaining real control.  The new regime's challenge is to appear reasonable enough that the energy building up for revolution is limited and/or diffused, yet still holding enough real power to keep the regime more-or-less intact short term while a longer term solution can be worked on. 

This is where autocratic mindset is most challenged.  The instinct of an autocracy is to avoid looking weak, and compromising in any real way does that in their view.  They tend to not yield enough to stop the energy building up for revolution and, often, can do stupid things to make things worse for themselves (shooting protestors, for example).  Romania being the example most on my mind.  We can also look to Yanukovych who dodged the bullet a few times by compromising enough, but in the end backed himself into a corner he couldn't get out of.  He had to make a choice between fulfilling the promises he made to stay in power and pleasing powerful interests (in particular Putin).  He obviously made the wrong choice.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I could picture Putin thinking "I need a victory... ah, I know!  I'll annex Belarus!  What could go wrong?"  Seriously, is that out of the question for Putin given his history of recent incredibly bad choices and his desperation?  Steve was mentioning how this makes no sense.  Sure, it makes no sense -- which is why it makes sense, you see?  This is why you in the west are always three steps behind Putin's cunning mind! 

I don't think so at all.  Russians would not view this as a victory because Belarus is not officially an enemy of Russia as Ukraine has been made out to be.  So right there your premise falls apart.  Secondly, I doubt Putin thinks his forces could pull it off.  As unrealistic and dumb as he is on the battlefield, he surely knows he doesn't have the resources to open up a brand new war in a country about the size of what he was trying to get in February 2022 with far more favorable conditions.

As I said before, the only reason Putin might try to directly intervene is if he senses Belarus is going to breakaway from Moscow control.  At that point he might decide to gamble on a military solution rather than accept a certain loss.  But even then, I'm not sure he would and he probably would not if the Belarus army was deemed unreliable to Moscow's will.  He might feel compelled to play the long game with Belarus simply because no short term solution is viable.

Steve

[danfrodo]

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am not so sure Russia could annex a small suburb right now let alone a country of 9 million people.  A second SMO could just as likely shatter the Russian Federation…which means of course it must be on the table as an option given their strategic track record.

I was thinking he'd pay off Belarus leadership enough that they'd declare country part of Russia, or they'd have some fake referendum.  This would of course be incredibly stupid.  But Putin needs a victory, and getting a swamp, errr, I mean country, as big as Belarus would be a victory. 

Edited May 14, 2023 by danfrodo
edit: cross posted w steve. yes, it's very unlikely and I was just speculating, so will drop it, not worth the space

[Battlefront.com]

Very long video that likely has interesting pieces to watch.  I've not seen any of it yet:

 

[billbindc]

30 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I could picture Putin thinking "I need a victory... ah, I know!  I'll annex Belarus!  What could go wrong?"  Seriously, is that out of the question for Putin given his history of recent incredibly bad choices and his desperation?  Steve was mentioning how this makes no sense.  Sure, it makes no sense -- which is why it makes sense, you see?  This is why you in the west are always three steps behind Putin's cunning mind! 

Meanwhile, RU moving 'reserves' to stop UKR advances N & S of bakhmut.  That's a bunch more troops that won't be easily moved later when reserves are really, really needed.

Putin has consistently made logical choices...taking into account the facts as he believed they stood. There is nobody in Moscow who thinks a Belarus takeover will augment Moscow's strength in any way except as some sort of face saving move in the event of a collapse in Ukraine. So, until the latter happens...  

[Beleg85]

28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Presuming Kaczanava takes office, it is highly probable the opposition will say the move is illegitimate because Luka was illegitimate and call for immediate elections or something similar.  How much opposition?  I haven't a clue because I don't know Belarus well enough to guess (2020 should be an indicator).  But I'm sure it will be greater than zero.  How Kaczanava and Putin react to this is what will likely tip the balance in favor or away from revolution.

She is not some ambitious, independent player though, just another boring aparatchik; she can be somewhat compareable to Valentina Matvyenenko in Russia. Person to stamp documents without political will or ambitions, with some flair of post-soviet version of protofeminism.

There are hardly any such independent persons in Lukashenka clicque; this "camp" visibly lacks any recognizeable figures like opposition ones. Not comparable to charismatic leaders like Ms. Tsichanouskaya or brave and hard-as-nail Maria Kalesnikava (currently tortured in prsion).

Edited May 14, 2023 by Beleg85

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Very long video that likely has interesting pieces to watch.  I've not seen any of it yet:

 

I just started - it's got footage of the surrender to the drone and the rest is an interview with one of the Ukrainians involved.  It's in Russian, but autosubtitle->autotranslate is sufficient to get the gist of what they're saying.

[BornGinger]

13 hours ago, dan/california said:

... and Minsk rose in a mass uprising, Putin would be in one heck of a pickle. And if he just tries too outright invade the place, we should tell the Poles they can join the party. There are about nine optimistic assumptions/lucky breaks in that scenario

Wow! Another large war in Europe possibly involving loads of countries if a few more would get involved. Just like last time. Lovely!