How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vanir Ausf B]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Even manned by just Mobiks,  a belt this deep is no joke. Supposedly runs full length of Front (not sure on that). 

Rob Lee commented on this.

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Rob Lee commented on this.

so is he assuming the Russians will actually man all these lines? err.. with what?  I mean we have done some analysis on these pages of the requirements to man a single line.  Now we have to multiply that (or divide the person per km figures?)  Call me skeptical.

[Centurian52]

On 5/7/2023 at 6:20 AM, Battlefront.com said:

Demographics is an important factor in assessing power and capabilities, but I would posit that there's more to it than that

Oh for sure. A good looking demographic chart (thicker on the bottom than the top, balanced to the left and right) merely represents an opportunity for economic growth. But that opportunity can easily be squandered by bad policies.

[billbindc]

6 minutes ago, sburke said:

so is he assuming the Russians will actually man all these lines? err.. with what?  I mean we have done some analysis on these pages of the requirements to man a single line.  Now we have to multiply that (or divide the person per km figures?)  Call me skeptical.

Does anyone have an idea of the number of Russian troops manning the Zaporizhzhia front? Their force mix and/or mobility? I'm curious what the differences will be btw this phase and the Kherson offensive for the Russians. Front depth, supply, the ability to retreat to safety. What else?

Edited May 8, 2023 by billbindc

[quakerparrot67]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

No, it wouldn't be. He'd be removed. And that's my point...Putin's still running the show. There are certainly stresses to his ability to arbitrate conflicts but so far there's no sign at all that he's losing control. So far, he's just losing the war.

i took it to mean that the only way it would take more than a couple of hours is if russia was involved in a civil war at that point, but i could be wrong, og course...

cheers,

rob

[Centurian52]

22 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Perun made some good points in his his 'counterattack' video.  One of the big takeaways for me was that much of the pledged armor & artillery systems for 2023 haven't even arrived yet.  Which means that UKR knows it will be able to replace equipment losses w ally-provided equipment, and soon.

If the equipment that has arrived is enough for one offensive, the equipment that's still on the way may be what's needed for a follow up offensive to exploit the results of the first. We've talked about what success for one offensive might look like. But if we're talking about multiple successive offensives then we're really cooking.

[Haiduk]

This nighr Kyiv was attacked by largest number of Shakeds at a time - 30. There is also number 35 in reports, but this is probably for whole country. All 35 were shot down. I herd loud explosion approx at 2:00 (though Kinzhal interception was much more loud %) )

Fragments of several shot down drones caused small fire in one transport facility and damaged residential building in western part of the city (likely all they came from W/SW). Five civilains were injured.

Also 8 Tu-22M3 launched 8 Kh-22 missiles on Odesa oblast. They targeted probable place of personnel, ammo and vehicles concentration, but again hit several empty recreation zones and destroyed Red Cross store facility with humanitarian aid (1 civilian was killed). Some part of missiles hit the empty ground at all.

[Kinophile]

26 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Does anyone have an idea of the number of Russian troops manning the Zaporizhzhia front? Their force mix and/or mobility? I'm curious what the differences will be btw this phase and the Kherson offensive for the Russians. Front depth, supply, the ability to retreat to safety. What eralse?

Last number I saw (Feb) was 100k ish for the Melitopol - Crimea AO. Another 20k in Crimea and growing. Zaporizhzhia itself could be 20-30k at this point?

Low quality,  many broken up units,  a real mix of command lines. 

[Centurian52]

On 5/7/2023 at 7:28 AM, Beleg85 said:

Muscovite video with YPR-765 hit by Russian fire. Fortunatelly, everyone seem to bail out.

 

It's good to see that so many Ukrainians (hopefully everyone) were able to pile out of there alive (hopefully uninjured, but I'll take alive). A YPR or two isn't a major loss. But losing a YPR with its full complement of infantry would be a nasty blow.

[Kinophile]

UKR post get hit. By chance a group of guts were all at a table that happened to not get flatterend by the slabs above. 

Dug out by their comrades,  eventually evacuated and now building up a mother company in the rear. 

"The most difficult 3 months of our lives". 

"The war continues..." 

 

[Haiduk]

Situation in Bakhmut.

Reportedly Russian troops now regrouped - southern flank near Bakhmut now is MoD responsibility, when the city and close northern flank (Khromove and some north) - zone of PMC Wagner

On eve of 9th of May Wagners conducted desperate night assault with heavy artillery support of small part of city , holding by UKR defendrs. But all, what they could achieve, is to seize two quarters. UKR used several HIMARS and arty, striking crossing point area through the river in the center of city. Also UKR troops widely use multiple sinepr pairs of SOF and other units. Usually elimination of two persons is enough to assault group of 10-12 men lost disire to advance for some time. 

Representative of "Terra" unit told that UKR troops have successful local attack on norhern flank, pushing the enemy on almost 1 km. NOEL claims it can be near Sako i Vancetti village. 

Edited May 8, 2023 by Haiduk

[Vanir Ausf B]

46 minutes ago, sburke said:

so is he assuming the Russians will actually man all these lines? err.. with what?  I mean we have done some analysis on these pages of the requirements to man a single line.  Now we have to multiply that (or divide the person per km figures?)  Call me skeptical.

Hey Skeptical,

I would ask him but I don't have a twitter account. I suspect most of these fortifications are unmanned or lightly manned. Many of the experts, or "experts" as the case may be, say it will come down to ISR and logistics, which is why some of them are predicting major breakthroughs. But they are guessing, like everyone else.

_______

Western partners have told him, he said, that they now need a “next example of a success because we need to show it to our people. … But I cannot tell you what the scale of this success would be. Ten kilometers, 30 kilometers, 100 kilometers, 200 kilometers?”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/06/ukraine-counteroffensive-expectations-hype-russia/

[Haiduk]

57 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Does anyone have an idea of the number of Russian troops manning the Zaporizhzhia front? Their force mix and/or mobility? I'm curious what the differences will be btw this phase and the Kherson offensive for the Russians. Front depth, supply, the ability to retreat to safety. What else?

I posted assesment of Kostianntyn Mashovets abouth month ago. Zaporizhzhia direction is defended by Troops Groupment "East". About 180 km of frontline, two-echelons of defense, about 87 000 of personnel.

Their right flank covered by Troops Groupment "Dnepr" (defense along left bank of Dnipro river) - about 70 000 and "Group of Crimea Defense" - about 10500

[Eddy]

Interesting thread on a report from independent Russian media on Russia's failing attempt to increase tank production

To paraphrase:

• Can't get the workers as wages are not attracting people
• Falsely advertising wages so new workers leave after a month once they see the actual take home pay
• 'Voluntary-compulsory contributions' reduce worker's take home pay even more
• Lack of space is a constraint. Two new plants were promised but not built for example
• Difficult to get electronic components - normally 90% are imported

Admittedly this evidence is from talking to workers at the various plants and not hard numbers but it does point to talk from Medvedev about 1500 annual tank production being complete and utter bollocks.  

The low wages is just weird. I would have thought with the war going as it is the Russian govt would be absolutely chucking money at anyone who can make any sort of tank. And the company would be absolutely chucking money at anyone who can even spell 'welding' to attract them. So either the govt. have big financial issues, don't think things are going that badly so why pay over the odds or the company's management are fleecing the workers. Whichever it is, long may it continue.

And the 'voluntary-compulsory contribution' - that's a theft in all but name. 

 

 

[Centurian52]

16 hours ago, kevinkin said:

That's the point. Those positions should never have been allowed to be in place.  

There is nothing that any army in the world has that could prevent the Russians from digging trenches on ground they still hold. If your argument is that Russia shouldn't still be holding any ground, because we should have provided Ukraine with enough material support to have kicked them off of all of it by now, then I'm with you on that. But at that point we're really not talking about trenches anymore.

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Eddy said:

Interesting thread on a report from independent Russian media on Russia's failing attempt to increase tank production

To paraphrase:

• Can't get the workers as wages are not attracting people
• Falsely advertising wages so new workers leave after a month once they see the actual take home pay
• 'Voluntary-compulsory contributions' reduce worker's take home pay even more
• Lack of space is a constraint. Two new plants were promised but not built for example
• Difficult to get electronic components - normally 90% are imported

Admittedly this evidence is from talking to workers at the various plants and not hard numbers but it does point to talk from Medvedev about 1500 annual tank production being complete and utter bollocks.  

The low wages is just weird. I would have thought with the war going as it is the Russian govt would be absolutely chucking money at anyone who can make any sort of tank. And the company would be absolutely chucking money at anyone who can even spell 'welding' to attract them. So either the govt. have big financial issues, don't think things are going that badly so why pay over the odds or the company's management are fleecing the workers. Whichever it is, long may it continue.

And the 'voluntary-compulsory contribution' - that's a theft in all but name. 

 

 

There are parallels with how Hitler waited FOREVER to put Germany's economy on a true war footing. Not saying it would have been transformative if he had don it sooner. But the war certainly ended a few months sooner because he he waited so long.

[Centurian52]

15 hours ago, CAZmaj said:

Rampant corruption is reported to have rendered Russia's ballistic missile early warning system virtually useless. Scams by contractors are said to have led to unsuitable foreign-made components being used on a wide scale.

The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that a scandal is about to break over a component substitution scam that it says has crippled Russia's early warning radars. Such scams have been widespread in Russian military procurement, often with the collusion of corrupt officials.

 

So they may just be completely missing a core capability for fighting a nuclear war. Yet another reason not to buy their nuclear saber rattling. Why am I not surprised?

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Last number I saw (Feb) was 100k ish for the Melitopol - Crimea AO. Another 20k in Crimea and growing. Zaporizhzhia itself could be 20-30k at this point?

Low quality,  many broken up units,  a real mix of command lines. 

What's an estimate an estimate for the Ukrainian forces they will face?

[Centurian52]

14 hours ago, paxromana said:

One thing I found when practising Grenade Throwing in the Army Reserve was that it was *amazing* how far you could throw the darn things even from inside a nice walled and bunkered pit ... you didn't want the darm things to land anywhere near you ... 

I can't throw far. In fact I actually failed the grenade course my first time through (thank god we were using dummy grenades (and thank god we had a concrete wall for the live grenades)). I just couldn't throw for s**t (couldn't throw far or accurately). Probably because I never played sports as a kid (gamer for life). I was a crack shot though (tied for 2nd best shot in my company (38/40)). The rest of my platoon just couldn't wrap their heads around how I could be such a good shot, yet such a terrible thrower. Considering how important grenades are in trench warfare, it's probably just as well I didn't join the International Legion when this thing broke out.

[Centurian52]

5 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

This is the thing worth getting back too. If the Russian procurement system is so utterly corrupt they completely bleeped the single most important electronic system in the entire country? Then tell me again why I am wrong about my theory that most, if not all of there nukes probably don't work either? Everybody up and down the chain could spend the money on real bombs, or their vice of choice. Remember, if someone presses the red button you are unpleasantly dead if it goes off, or if it doesn't. Furthermore these are exactly the kinds of cheating that would make a nuke not work.

In fact I would be willing to bet that a significant portion of Russia's nukes don't work anymore. I wouldn't be willing to bet that none of Russia's nukes work though.

[akd]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

UKR Striker M1296

Possibly, or they may be training with the US Stryker brigade (2nd ACR) in Europe, the first to be equipped with the 30mm Strykers.

Edited May 8, 2023 by akd

[Harmon Rabb]

Ukrainians engaging what I presume are Shahed drones over Kyiv last night.

Edited May 8, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Centurian52]

4 hours ago, MikeyD said:

One thing we need to take into account is these Russian machinations are often being done in an alcohol fog. We're hearing threats and demands, abrupt dismissals and promotions, grandiose statements and absurd threats. They don't often make sense to us because these guys are drunkards.

This makes so much sense

[keas66]

I mean the  Ukrainians would not be so silly as to head directly into the thickest nest of Russians they could find when they kick off the offensive surely  . What does it look like at the top end of the Kharkhiv Front ? - We were previously getting excited during the last Ukrainian offensive that they could  just carry onto towards the North of Luhansk and down towards Rostov on the Don - cutting off all of the Russians  to the West .

[Centurian52]

2 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Rob Lee commented on this.

Where are they going to get the reinforcements from?