How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

Hope it passes.. 

 

 

[Centurian52]

On 4/21/2023 at 11:34 AM, Seminole said:

That's why I linked to the census info in the Wikipedia article.  It shows various census going over a century.  Stalin's deportation of the Tartars is evident, but the place has never registered above 26.5% Ukrainian (self-identified).  The census conducted in 2001 by Ukraine pegged the demographics at 60% Russian, 24% Ukrainian.

The idea that there is such a thing as a "nation", in the sense of a culturally (or worse, racially) homogeneous group with a well defined territory, needs to just die already. What proportion of a population in a given region identifies as what particular nationality is completely irrelevant. You will never have borders that closely align to regional national identities, because people move around and mix together. Even if you do get the borders just right, so that people with one nationality are all inside one country, and the people who identify as other nationalities are all in other countries, the borders will be obsolete within a century. People will migrate and bleed over the borders, so a century later the people in the border regions will no longer have a nationality that matches their country. And because people have this completely fallacious idea that countries should govern particular nationalities, and the only way to forcibly change the borders is by going to war, you get endless wars over territorial disputes.

The only solution is to recognize that nationality does not matter. The idea that nationality matters is a stupid and archaic idea that has no place in the 21st century. Countries do not exist to govern one and only one nationality, and there is absolutely no reason for their borders to match national settlement patterns (for that matter, I don't believe that any country has any right to insist that every member of its population conforms to the culture of the majority nationality). Ukraine has a right to retake Crimea because Russia took it from Ukraine by force, and that cannot be allowed to stand. Russia had absolutely no right to take Crimea in 2014, and that injustice will be reversed.

Edit: Another reason why Ukraine really needs to retake Crimea is that it is essential for Ukraine's future security. The opening months of the war demonstrated just how vulnerable that southern flank is, and closing it off would drastically reduce Russia's future offensive options.

Edited April 25, 2023 by Centurian52

[chuckdyke]

42 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

archaic idea that has no place in the 21st century.

Watch the debate in British Parliament regarding the WHO. The UN Authorities become the dictatorships of tomorrow. We move off topic here. But countries like Russia ruling like tyrants have the seat on the security council. Can invade anybody an veto any resolution they don't like. Nationalities still matter now more than ever.

[Centurian52]

33 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Watch the debate in British Parliament regarding the WHO. The UN Authorities become the dictatorships of tomorrow. We move off topic here. But countries like Russia ruling like tyrants have the seat on the security council. Can invade anybody an veto any resolution they don't like. Nationalities still matter now more than ever.

Granted, but we're using two different senses of "matter".

[JonS]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

At some point we are going to have to have a conversation with the lawyers

Reminder: the lawyers don't set the rules. Their role is to ensure that the rules are followed.

[Kinophile]

@Battlefront.com you saw that note on the Hrim-2 on the ISW report today? 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Reminder: the lawyers don't set the rules. Their role is to ensure that the rules are followed.

And I have a sneaking suspicion those rules would change after about a week of the casualties the Ukrainians are taking...

[Battlefront.com]

On 4/23/2023 at 10:26 AM, Harmon Rabb said:

My favorite Polish Youtube geopolitical analyst, has released a trilogy of videos dealing with the potential collapse of the Russian Federation. Nothing that has not been discussed here over the last 2000+ pages, but I'm a visual learner and I enjoy his presentation style.

By GTBT's own admission he got a lot of his information for these videos from a book written by a British political scientist named Janusz Bugajski, who wrote the book Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture. A book you can download for free here.

 

I just watched all three videos.  Thanks for posting them, they were well worth watching.

For those with limited time, I suggest watching the first part of the second video.  It outlines the conditions that pretty much assure that Russia is headed towards a major change of Russia's power structures.  The video outlines what the factors are and why it is highly unlikely Putin can do anything to stop their progression to collapsing the Russian economy which, as Ive long argued, pretty much assures either a breakup (several scenarios), a renegotiated power sharing with regional elites, or some combination.

I've been harping on this since before the war began.  Collapse is inevitable even if we can't predict how it will play out.  This ties in directly to the conversation we are having about the recent discussions about the US' attempts to somehow defeat Russia without collapsing it.  Given the potential horrors of a messy Russian breakup, it's a noble goal.  Unfortunately, I don't see it as likely.  The third video discusses why messy breakup of Russia is not in anybody's best interests. Probably not even Ukraine's.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

46 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

@Battlefront.com you saw that note on the Hrim-2 on the ISW report today? 

Just getting into today's report, but there was also a mention on the 22nd report that I didn't pay much attention to.  The original report stated that Ukraine launched a Hrim-2 at the Kerch bridge and Russia shot it down.  Given Russia's long established track record of not shooting down ballistic missiles and even longer record of lying about damned near everything, I'm not putting much stock in it.  It is probable that Russians are just doing what they do with everything they fear... make false claims about how meaningless X id because the Russian mighty military can easily defeat X.

Here's what was in today's report:

Quote

A Russian occupation official claimed that Ukrainian forces are operating a Hrim-2 short-range ballistic missile system in Zaporizhia Oblast. Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed on April 25 that Ukrainian forces deployed a new Hrim-2 missile system to Zaporizhzhia City.[41] The Hrim-2 reportedly has a maximum range of 400-500 kilometers.[42] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces targeted the Kerch Strait Bridge with a Hrim-2 missile on April 22.[43]

Although I don't believe this information for now, at least, I am expecting that we'll see another Saky type strike as part of the early phase of the counter offensive.  if our previous speculation about Hrim-2 is correct, and Ukraine hasn't used any since the Saky attack, then they should have at least that many available now.

Steve

[danfrodo]

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

New-formed 37th marines brigade got M-ATV Oshkosh and AMX-10RC

https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/morski-pihotyntsi-opanovuyut-bronemashyny-amx-10rc-ta-oshkosh-m-atv/

Interesting weapons.  Fast, some punch, but very lightly armored.  Would be great for a lot of things, not so good for some others .  Could easily move a long way overnight.  Showing RU the unit is poised to attack on some sector the next morning.  When the sun goes down it races off to some other spot.  By dawn it's easily 50 or more km away and launching an attack there. 

[danfrodo]

17 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Just to add finnishing touch to this discussions- I really don't get where people have this idea that Stalin was not a commie. He was penultimate communist, writing a dozen or so works on the topic*, by all evidence till the end of his life considering himself a theoretical and practical embodiment of communist world.

I don't like disagreeing w Beleg because I know I will lose , but I just want to clarify my point.

Yes, he was a commie. And hitler a fascist.  But I am saying what they really were were sociopathic narcissistic megalomaniacs that happened to be commie or fascist.  Doesn't mean they couldn't also believe in commie or fascist ideology.  I am saying the commie/fascist thing didn't matter so much.  Especially considering they both were the same murderous monsters despite having 'opposite' views.  Is Putin a fascist?   A mob boss?  A nuevo-soviet commie?  Does it matter? -- what matters is that he's a murderous megalomaniac.

[Fenris]

More Bradley pics

 

[Vic4]

On 4/24/2023 at 11:42 AM, Kinophile said:

I meant it more in that international affairs framing, rather than USA domestic. 

Never has a cancelled agent been welcomed home with such open arms. 

Tucker Carlson is out at Fox News but welcome on Russian TV

https://apple.news/AmuE4mC7HSbCubQOjGWYy7A

Edited April 26, 2023 by Vic4

[NamEndedAllen]

46 minutes ago, Vic4 said:

Tucker Carlson is out at Fox News but welcome on Russian TV

Shocked…SHOCKED!

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, JonS said:

Reminder: the lawyers don't set the rules. Their role is to ensure that the rules are followed.

Strictly true. But recall that a great number of lawmakers are indeed lawyers. In the recent 117th Congress, 175 had law degrees. State legislators are also often lawyers. A majority of all US Presidents have been lawyers; 26 iirc.

[JonS]

Yes, but they aren't acting as lawyers when in the role of lawmakers. They don't get to set the rules because they're lawyers. They get to set them because they're lawmakers. Edit: and the lawmakers-who-trained-as-lawyers don't get to ensure the rules are followed either, because of that pesky old separation of powers thing - the executive and legislative branches aren't supposed to mess with the independent judiciary, etc.

The more important point, though, is that if you jettison your principles as soon as things get a bit tough, then you don't really have any principles. The reason 'we' get to tell ourselves that we're better than 'them' is because we at least try to hold ourselves to the rules we set. If we ditch those rules - and principles - then we're really just them wearing a fake nose and glasses.

Edited April 26, 2023 by JonS

[chuckdyke]

Follow this sound advice when you play CM.

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

On 4/25/2023 at 1:22 AM, sburke said:

Case in point Zimbabwe.  In my teens I actually helped with clothing drives for material aid.  Pretty depressed when I saw the "liberation" leadership turned out to be f'n aholes.

Jeez, mate, that whole insurgency was full of civilian targetting terrorists, maybe the least appealing  "liberation" cause since Mau Mau...

[JonS]

Lol. Only clown armies use cartoons for instructional purposes.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by JonS

[Maciej Zwolinski]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Although I don't believe this information for now, at least, I am expecting that we'll see another Saky type strike as part of the early phase of the counter offensive.  if our previous speculation about Hrim-2 is correct, and Ukraine hasn't used any since the Saky attack, then they should have at least that many available now.

Steve

From the Ukrainian side there have been many concurrent opinions, that a big item in the Russian plan how to defeat the coming offensive  is massive use of airpower. We can expect Ukrainians to shoot all available Hrims at the airports at the beginning of their attack. 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

10 hours ago, JonS said:

Reminder: the lawyers don't set the rules. Their role is to ensure that the rules are followed.

Or broken without consequences. There is a lot of work on the defence side, and pays much better than the government rates for prosecution work.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

23 hours ago, kraze said:

But an occupied Poland most definitely required it to stay put.

It did not work. I think the number of people honestly thinking of themselves as communists or socialists right now may be higher in post communist satellite countries now, than it was at any time between 1950 and 1989. Of course, they are mostly kids with their hair dyed blue and Pokemon avatars getting their Marxism lessons from Tik Tokers in the US hardly older than their audience. During the Warsaw Pact time it was sufficient to have a look around you to see that communism sucks ***, and now that kind of first hand experience is sorely missing.

The system was sustained by a large group of people who were co-opted by it and considered that their personal fortunes tied in to the communism, and by the threat of Red Army intervention CzechoHungarian style. Once the threat became unlikely, and the Militia officers realised, they will be better off by buying a second hand Western TV on a free market than by exploiting their elite privillege to get a coupon for a Rubin TV set which requires a sand bucket nearby at all times in case it explodes, communism was dead in a few months.

[Beleg85]

XI and Zhelensky spoke by phone, it's curious how things developed. China is ofc. traditionally playing both sides.

Also latest news (from yesterday) about small "disputes" between various mercenary groups. We discussed before rationale behind forming several different PMC's subordinated to various entities and how they will behave on frontlines. It turns out - not so well.

Wasn't it American s-f nightmare of various corporations arming themselves and fighting one another?  Again, Russia at the forefront of wild capitalism.

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by Beleg85

[Centurian52]

6 hours ago, Fenris said:

More Bradley pics

 

Looks good. I have a feeling that this is what the Bradley models will look like in CMSU.

[kevinkin]

Fast cars and politics are like fast cars and blondes. All well and good as long as you keep your eyes on the road and don't draw too much attention or break any laws on the way to Vegas:

 https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2023/04/26/war_threatens_ukraine_auto_empire_of_biden_megadonor_urging_greater_us_role_895319.html