How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[masc]

From an interview with former Wagner apparently.  Detailing the massacre and execution of civilians, wounded PoWs, and Russians who refused to fight.

The full video is here but untranslated:

 

[akd]

House of Culture in Bakhmut demoed, hopefully with Russians inside:

 

[Haiduk]

28 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Really sounds like the Ivan is going all in.  They smell victory. 

That's ok,  because they're now burning through the VDV-alt troops. 

They are burning mostly mobiks, which now attaching to Wagners

[dan/california]

 

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

An article in FP Magazine that reminds me I should think about renewing my subscription.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/17/the-west-is-preparing-for-russias-disintegration/

If someone here has a paid account it would be great to have your take on what the article is about.  I'm curious to know if particular trigger points are discussed and other things like that.

Steve

Quote

 

“He was seen [in Russia] as a leader who could defeat anyone, and Ukraine was seen as so weak that it would be defeated without any effort,” Sumlenny told Foreign Policy over the phone from Berlin. “But now, everyone, including the ruling elite in republics and regions, can see that Moscow neither has the money nor a strong army.

“If you are a mafia boss the worst thing that can happen to you is that your subordinates suddenly realize that you are not as strong as you claimed to be.” 

 

I got it on the monthly freebie, or something. Rest of the article is in the same vein. It is definitely on the Russia really can come unglued side of the debate. Very few , if any, specifics we haven't discussed here.

Edit: Just realized The_Capt had already done a summary.

Edited April 18, 2023 by dan/california

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://warontherocks.com/episode/therussiacontingency/28604/expectations-for-ukraines-counteroffensive-and-listener-questions/

 

Notes on this paywalled episode:

• Last week(s) was relatively quiet as the Russians shifted to a defensive posture, preparing for the Ukrainian offensive. The offensive is expected to begin by the end of this month or early next month.
• The only exception is the Battle of Bachmut, where Russia seeks a symbolic victory. The long-term effects of this battle will be the downstream consequences of the material(and human) cost of the battle.
• Mike refrains from commenting on leaks, stating that there is nothing new to the reports.
• It is anticipated that a series of Ukrainian offensive operations will occur on multiple fronts over several months. These operations are expected to be bloody, even if they go according to plan.
• The spring offensive is likely to resemble the battle in Kherson rather than Harkiv, but still with significant differences. Untested forces will be attacking untested forces, using untested equipment. Predicting the outcome of such encounters, where the unknown meets the unknown, is futile.
• In the past month, Kofman's opinion on the likelihood of Ukrainian success has increased.
• Mike does not see a major disconnect in the situation picture between the battalion level and strategic leadership of Ukraine.

         In the Q&A segment:

• Wagner primarily operates locally, working within the Russian military, and is subordinate to and enabled by the military.
• The state of the Ukrainian air defense is a top priority. They are eventually going to have to transition to Western systems
• The latest possible start for the Ukrainian counter-offensive has not been determined, but initiating it too soon would be unwise.
• Long-range missiles (ATACMS, Storm Shadow) are not considered critical, as their importance is often overstated in the silver bullet thinking, similar to the HIMARS myth.
• Russia's main issue with armor is attrition compared to the replacement rate, leading to the use of outdated equipment in new formations.
• Let's think of the counterfactual what if Ukraine's offensive liberates all possible areas? What next?
  • Even in the best-case scenario, a protracted attritional phase is expected to follow the offensive.
  • A successful offensive could lead to a better position for negotiations, but there's no guarantee that Russia will want to negotiate as long as Putin remains in power.
  • In any case, a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive is a good problem to have.
• Historical comparisons for this war include the Winter War of 1939(this comparison breaks when the West entered the side of Ukraine), conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and India and Pakistan. The Korean War is considered a less likely "happy" scenario.
• The US has three main goals in this war:
  • achieving a strategic defeat for Russia,
  • securing victory for Ukraine
  • managing escalation.
    • If escalation was not a concern, the US could have intervened more directly to accomplish the first two goals a year ago.

[NamEndedAllen]

No better news about sanctions choking off weapon components. Better than nothing, but still too many leakers getting through.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/18/business/economy/us-russia-chips-sanctions.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Russia Is Importing Western Weapons Technology, Bypassing Sanctions
—- Senior tax and trade officials noted a surge in chips and other electronic components being sold to Russia through Armenia, Kazakhstan and other countries, according to slides from the March 24 meeting obtained by The New York Times. And they shared information on the flow of eight particularly sensitive categories of chips and other electronic devices that they have deemed as critical to the development of weapons, including Russian cruise missiles that have been used to strike Ukraine.

[Beleg85]

About latest crash official announcemnt was issued:

On April 14, at the training ground in Świętoszów, during classes at the Leopard Training Center in the 10th Armored Cavalry Brigade, two Leopard 2A4 tanks collided. As a result of the accident, no soldier was injured, while one of the tanks was damaged and is currently in the repair hall, where it will be subjected to inspection, verification and assessment of the effects of the collision. The training was attended by soldiers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said the spokesman for the General Commander of the Branches of the Armed Forces, Lieutenant Colonel Marek Pawlak

So nothing serious, but Ukraine is probably minus one tank.

Meanwhile, videos of other Lancet victims are being published:

 

 

Edited April 18, 2023 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

About latest crash official announcemnt was issued:

On April 14, at the training ground in Świętoszów, during classes at the Leopard Training Center in the 10th Armored Cavalry Brigade, two Leopard 2A4 tanks collided. As a result of the accident, no soldier was injured, while one of the tanks was damaged and is currently in the repair hall, where it will be subjected to inspection, verification and assessment of the effects of the collision. The training was attended by soldiers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said the spokesman for the General Commander of the Branches of the Armed Forces, Lieutenant Colonel Marek Pawlak

So nothing serious, but Ukraine is probably minus one tank.

Meanwhile, videos of other Lancet victims are being published:

 

 

 

Quote

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/12/07/us-army-laser-stryker/

 

Quote

 

During a live-fire test in May, the Stryker-mounted laser weapon successfully acquired, tracked, targeted, and defeated multiple mortars.

Its directed energy also neutralizes small, medium, and large drones.

 

These should be rolling straight to Ukraine. If they work as advertised they could just eliminate Orlans from high priority areas. It would probably help as much as F-16s would, and the logistical and training tail is a tiny fraction.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://warontherocks.com/episode/therussiacontingency/28604/expectations-for-ukraines-counteroffensive-and-listener-questions/

 

Notes on this paywalled episode:

• Last week(s) was relatively quiet as the Russians shifted to a defensive posture, preparing for the Ukrainian offensive. The offensive is expected to begin by the end of this month or early next month.
• The only exception is the Battle of Bachmut, where Russia seeks a symbolic victory. The long-term effects of this battle will be the downstream consequences of the material(and human) cost of the battle.
• Mike refrains from commenting on leaks, stating that there is nothing new to the reports.
• It is anticipated that a series of Ukrainian offensive operations will occur on multiple fronts over several months. These operations are expected to be bloody, even if they go according to plan.
• The spring offensive is likely to resemble the battle in Kherson rather than Harkiv, but still with significant differences. Untested forces will be attacking untested forces, using untested equipment. Predicting the outcome of such encounters, where the unknown meets the unknown, is futile.
• In the past month, Kofman's opinion on the likelihood of Ukrainian success has increased.
• Mike does not see a major disconnect in the situation picture between the battalion level and strategic leadership of Ukraine.

         In the Q&A segment:

• Wagner primarily operates locally, working within the Russian military, and is subordinate to and enabled by the military.
• The state of the Ukrainian air defense is a top priority. They are eventually going to have to transition to Western systems
• The latest possible start for the Ukrainian counter-offensive has not been determined, but initiating it too soon would be unwise.
• Long-range missiles (ATACMS, Storm Shadow) are not considered critical, as their importance is often overstated in the silver bullet thinking, similar to the HIMARS myth.
• Russia's main issue with armor is attrition compared to the replacement rate, leading to the use of outdated equipment in new formations.
• Let's think of the counterfactual what if Ukraine's offensive liberates all possible areas? What next?
  • Even in the best-case scenario, a protracted attritional phase is expected to follow the offensive.
  • A successful offensive could lead to a better position for negotiations, but there's no guarantee that Russia will want to negotiate as long as Putin remains in power.
  • In any case, a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive is a good problem to have.
• Historical comparisons for this war include the Winter War of 1939(this comparison breaks when the West entered the side of Ukraine), conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and India and Pakistan. The Korean War is considered a less likely "happy" scenario.
• The US has three main goals in this war:
  • achieving a strategic defeat for Russia,
  • securing victory for Ukraine
  • managing escalation.
    • If escalation was not a concern, the US could have intervened more directly to accomplish the first two goals a year ago.

The quality of your summaries is continually amazing.

[The_MonkeyKing]

9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The quality of your summaries is continually amazing.

Thanks! This time the summery was polished by chatGPT4.0 from my initial quick notes.

[dan/california]

Just now, The_MonkeyKing said:

Thanks! This time the summery was polished by chatGPT4.0 from my initial quick notes.

. It would be a fascinating exercise to let it loose on the whole thread, and see what it came up with. 

[Haiduk]

Some number of UKR losses was announced by Oleh Kotenko - the commisioner for issues of persons, missed under specific circumstances

According to his words slightly more 7000 of sevicemen considered now as MIA. He hopes about 60-65% of them can be alive and in captivity. 

Recently 130 UKR soldiers were exchenged - 48 of them were considered as MIA. 

Total from captivity were liberated 2235 persons (including civilians)

 

Edited April 18, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Episode of Bakhmut fighting (in three parts), likely week or more ago

On first video UKR soldiers evacuated wounded Russian mobik, further severeal corpses of mobiks with red tapes are visible.

 

[Kinophile]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

They are burning mostly mobiks, which now attaching to Wagners

Kinda what I mean.  There's "vdv"  units in the flanks,  I believe, but they are no longer the sorta elite units they were and are much more Mobiks than vdv. 

[Kinophile]

https://kyivindependent.com/germany-delivers-patriot-air-defense-system-to-ukraine/

That's one. There's another to come,  correct? 

[Kinophile]

More Men of Gondor, training to break the Black Gates. 

 

[Greup]

On 4/17/2023 at 10:23 PM, Holien said:

Talk about yourself!!! We were reading and playing complicated RPG's such as Aftermath and worrying about where to build a post apocalyptic community.

Acronyms such as BDG are forever written into my brain since those days.

[Beleg85]

Another political figure in Ukrainie died- Oleh Barna, former MP to Ukrainian Parliament, political activist (was already at Kuchma's times) and Maidan participant. He became famous for grabing and taking Prime Minister Yatseniuk off from speaker pulipt in 2015- hardly a civilized behaviour, but on other side we rarely in modern times see members of parliament serving in the army as common soldiers. He was reportedly in uniform from II.2022, commanding mortar section.

 

[Lethaface]

 

On 4/15/2023 at 6:52 PM, The_Capt said:

Even if we could develop APS umbrellas, they are going to be making a lot of noise in protecting our mass, which is hot and highly visible. We manage to create a great ATGM wall - which is a tall freakin ask when one considers sub-munitions, stand-off and decoys.  But let’s say for a second we could do it.  Well it will feel great for about 5 mins before the long range fires come lobbing in.  A combination of unmanned loitering, artillery and high trajectory missiles…we don’t have an answer for that.  And this is before we start talking UGVs, freakin EFPs with legs and a brain.

So in a fight against a comparably UA empowered force we are talking adversaries ISR outside the theatre so “no touchy” or we run escalation.  So we create a force protection dome to protect our combined arms mass. Surprise is dead at that point.  And we would need to load up the FP to the point it starts to get uneconomical to try and protect those same formations.  Logistics and technical support, sustainment etc all stack up really fast to try and build a mobile Iron Dome.  There will come a point that trying to defend our current formations stops making sense.  We are not there yet but I can definitely see it from here.

As to AirPower and “the might of NATO”, c’mon we are at risk of sucking and blowing at the same time here.  On one hand we are 20 minutes from running out of munitions and equipment to support this war, but in a comparable next-war, we now would have bottomless weight?  We would not be stumped at Bakhmut for months…because we likely would have run out of ammo in the first 6 months before we ever got to Bakhmut.

As to AirPower, good lord, Russia had the 3rd largest Air Force in the world and got stumped hard: https://www.wdmma.org/russian-air-force.php

At the higher ends of readiness (always a contentious one for Russia) they have as many fixed wing aircraft as the Gulf War:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War_air_campaign

Orxy has Russia with only 79 aircraft lost, so a pretty small fraction of their fleet.  Yet we are not seeing a lot of Russian air action beyond lobbing well back from front lines.  The reason for this, cited by many, is denial.  Air forces are like navies, extremely expensive and insanely long build times.  No one is going to throw them into a denied space because the costs just get too high.  Does anyone think that if entry costs escalate in a NATO war to the level we see in Ukraine that “national caveat” light are not going to light up like an Xmas tree?

 

At the same time fortunately NATO usually doesn't have plans of the special military op type: a major war of aggression against a well motivated and decently armed defender, who has been preparing for war for 8 years. Featuring several axis requiring at least a million men (and other stuff), which weren't available. Topping it of with a brief 'preliminary bombardment - morning' for shock and awe, not mentioning the lack of plans regarding what to do about those pesky urban centers.
I mean if we would think of starting such a war I'd hope someone would at least start worrying whether there is even the munitions / hardware etc for such a fantasy.

In any case I'm sure US/NATO would come up with a different plan to tackle 'Ukraine invasion like 2022' then the one Russia came up with, if it had to. And actually prepare for it (it would take long). But tbh it wouldn't be 'nice', imo it would include bombing from standoff distance for a loooong time.  If anything else even. When the stone age would start to kick in, boots on the ground. Although even then the task at hand would still be very different from OIF.
Probably more like CMSF2 with decent-good trained and highly motivated fighters using Kornets and RPG-29s but then much better organized and with good comms, loads of IEDs, etc, defending guerilla style from hardened positions (so urban centers in CMSF2). It would still be ugly, because that's what fighting against a people always turns out. Even after the conventional phase ends,  'mission accomplished', and blends into an indefinite insurgency on steroids.

One could mention Iran and US but the US had itself concluded 'bad idea' regarding a ground war in Iran, let alone a full scale invasion/annexation. I'm in the 'bad idea' camp as well, for various reasons, and leave it at that.

TLDR, do we really need the capabilities and matching stocks for a war playing the role Russia is playing now?
Not saying / thinking nothing should be done, it's definitely time for wakey-wakey but the goal is not to start a new arms race (or rather should not be).

 

[NamEndedAllen]

Apparently new information not hashed over already. What had been openly reported at first was only a fraction of what was leaked. I think this may have been due to various Agencies requesting the main news sources to delay releasing parts of the trove. That isn’t unusual in these cases. And Iirc, Wash Post reported having reviewed 300 docs not yet published here.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/18/china-supersonic-drone-taiwan-leaks/?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere&location=alert  A secret document from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, which has not previously been reported, shows the Chinese military is making technological advances that could help it target American warships around Taiwan and military bases in the region.

The Washington Post obtained the assessment of the WZ-8 program from a trove of images of classified files posted on Discord, a group chat service popular with gamers, allegedly by a member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard.

 

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Lethaface said:

 

At the same time fortunately NATO usually doesn't have plans of the special military op type: a major war of aggression against a well motivated and decently armed defender, who has been preparing for war for 8 years. Featuring several axis requiring at least a million men (and other stuff), which weren't available. Topping it of with a brief 'preliminary bombardment - morning' for shock and awe, not mentioning the lack of plans regarding what to do about those pesky urban centers.
I mean if we would think of starting such a war I'd hope someone would at least start worrying whether there is even the munitions / hardware etc for such a fantasy.

In any case I'm sure US/NATO would come up with a different plan to tackle 'Ukraine invasion like 2022' then the one Russia came up with, if it had to. And actually prepare for it (it would take long). But tbh it wouldn't be 'nice', imo it would include bombing from standoff distance for a loooong time.  If anything else even. When the stone age would start to kick in, boots on the ground. Although even then the task at hand would still be very different from OIF.
Probably more like CMSF2 with decent-good trained and highly motivated fighters using Kornets and RPG-29s but then much better organized and with good comms, loads of IEDs, etc, defending guerilla style from hardened positions (so urban centers in CMSF2). It would still be ugly, because that's what fighting against a people always turns out. Even after the conventional phase ends,  'mission accomplished', and blends into an indefinite insurgency on steroids.

One could mention Iran and US but the US had itself concluded 'bad idea' regarding a ground war in Iran, let alone a full scale invasion/annexation. I'm in the 'bad idea' camp as well, for various reasons, and leave it at that.

TLDR, do we really need the capabilities and matching stocks for a war playing the role Russia is playing now?
Not saying / thinking nothing should be done, it's definitely time for wakey-wakey but the goal is not to start a new arms race (or rather should not be).

 

Unfortunately it takes two parties to dial it back in a geopolitical situation like the current one.  China's government is utterly amoral and expansionistic. The way they have crushed Hong kong, and Xinjiang is simply beyond the pale. The west can have arms race with China, or lose a war with China. I rely don't see a third choice, and a AI graded six month course in Xi Jinping thought every two years just to stay out of a labor camp sound like a lousy proposition, at least to me.

 

Quote

https://www.economist.com/china/2023/04/13/communist-party-members-must-study-xi-jinpings-thinking

And that really isn't a joke, the CCCP is just getting started with AI as an authoritarian tool.

 

Quote

https://www.economist.com/china/2023/04/18/can-xi-jinping-control-ai-without-crushing-it

So at the moment an arms race really seems like the least bad choice, unless China comes up with a whole new government system. Which seems about as likely as my old, fat, slow, and broken self winning this year's Tour de France.

 

Edited April 19, 2023 by dan/california

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Which seems about as likely as my old, fat, slow, and broken self winning this year's Tour de France.

Ahh, I think you are not alone here, oh Dan of CA! However…I ain’t as good as I once was, but I’m as good once as I ever was!

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Kinophile said:

More Men of Gondor, training to break the Black Gates. 

 

The pro-Russian comments linked to off of this post are depressing.  It is a prime example of people having opinions despite having absolutely no clue what they are talking about.  The morons over there are thinking this is some sort of march right into the Russian front lines, for example.  They also ridicule the soldiers for being on foot, as if soldiers are not supposed to march as part of their training.  They also seem to think this is not a very impressive display of power, though they don't seem willing to compare it to what the average Russian unit looks like these days.  The disheveled mobiks wearing a hodgepodge of whatever military kit they could get their hands on, just like the 1st Chechen War, certainly wouldn't look as impressive even if Russia could muster this many men in the rear at one time.

I remember many years ago (2006 IIRC) some pictures of the Estonian Defense League on parade.  These are the equivalent of peacetime Territorial Defense Units of Ukraine.  As such, the soldiers had a, well, a variety of shapes and sizes plus a pretty wide age range.  The Russian nationalists made fun of this "NATO" unit because of their physical appearance.  I saw one guy in one comments section, who claimed to be a Russian soldier, said something like "they are rear guard civilians and yet, unlike us Russian soldiers, have brand new weapons matching uniforms".  Every time I think of this I smile and think it encapsulates the mindset of Russian nationalists quite well.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

Only now can we say that the German army was capable in WW2. During the 50s and 60s we had 10 Pence War Comics. You wouldn't dare to contradict popular opinions.

[Haiduk]

Minister of Defense Reznikov introduced AMX-10RC for service in Marine units.