How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

I've vacillitated between  weather UKR can/should take Crimea. 

Generally  I've been of the mind that Ukraine must take it,  but the operation,  now or in a year, could break the back of the war effort. But the longer it's left there untouched the tougher it gets to crack. 

So UKR should take Crimea, but I'm doubtful it can.

The lack of even air parity is a critical failing and until the PSU can give the Ivan a rough handling over and on Crimea then a land assault is just suicidal. 

There's an issue with a corrosion campaign, that being the sheer,  open flat distance from Perekop to Sevastopol. You could degrade the city and port to rubble,  take out the local AA/AD but you still need to cross that gigantic firing range. 

The ultimate prerequisite to Crimea is destroying the Kerch bridge,  then achieving air dominance. 

It will take a minimum of a year for the PSU to get to parity of local effects. 

Do Crimea,  for all the talk,  is about two years away,  barring a full on RUS  land forces collapse. Pushing to Crimea won't do much,  strategically. Better to cut the land corridor between Crimea and Donbass, in a place far enough that Crimea won't suck attention and resources. 

This suggests Melitopol is the furthest West the ZSU should go. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

If you are any good, why the hell would you join the military to be an IT guy? If you wanna be a soldier sure, but IT... what's the point?

If you are even halfway decent, there are thousands of tech companies, many in military adjacent areas that pay well enough to afford an apartment in a tier1 US or Candian city without roomates (or in SpaceX's case, half of a FAANG with longer hours). You don't have to be a stanford grad or anything like that either; it's purely ability to pass coding and design interviews at the entry level, which I've seen average but motivated people do easily.

Now THERE's an angle I forgot to explore...  there is absolutely no need for a 19 year old to be doing this sort of work.  We have civilians for that who are already knowledgeable about IT and what will happen to his or her kids' family life if mommy or daddy decide to share government secrets with the wrong people.  Sure, those contractors cost more money than Airman Affordable, but in life you get usually get what you pay for.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

OK, I think we've ridden this intel leak thing as hard as we can with the information we have.  As often happens, we've taken a very interesting off topic path that we should now get off of.  To summarize:

1.  Someone screwed up with this screwup kid.  Lots of possible things there, but the details are not available to us now or perhaps ever.

2.  It is possible, maybe even probable, that some of the materials that the kid released were doctored ahead of time after they found out his hobbies were gaming and treason.

3.  The information that we've seen wasn't very interesting.  Most of it was time sensitive and long since past its prime, the bulk of it not a surprise to anybody that follows world events closer than what cable TV and shock jock radio put out.

4.  Given that we have reason to suspect SOME of the information is distorted in some way, it's not really possible to know what's for sure real.  And even then, that doesn't mean it's accurate.  The warnings of "stalemate" in Ukraine, for example, have been coming out of the Pentagon for over a year now.

In conclusion... this has been a very interesting discussion about a very interesting event.  However, it's not really all that important.  Me personally?  I think it's best to ignore all of it and go on the assumption that none of it is reliable.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Now THERE's an angle I forgot to explore...  there is absolutely no need for a 19 year old to be doing this sort of work.  We have civilians for that who are already knowledgeable about IT and what will happy to his or her kids' family life if mommy or daddy decide to share government secrets with the wrong people.  Sure, those contractors cost more money than Airman Affordable, but in life you get usually get what you pay for.

Steve

This came out a bit garbled, almost like I wrote it, but not quite as bad. 

[chuckdyke]

National Resistance center - Центр національного спротиву (mod.gov.ua)   

 

[Battlefront.com]

Here's an interesting take on the Ukrainian POWs that were just returned.  This from ISW's April 16th report:

Quote

The Wagner Group returned 130 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) on April 16, suggesting that Wagner may have engaged in the exchange independent of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).[22] Ukrainian sources confirmed that 130 Ukrainian POWs returned to Ukraine but did not specify how many Russian POWs were exchanged in turn.[23]  The Russian MoD deviated from its normal routine and did not confirm the prisoner exchange at all. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin posted a video showing Wagner forces preparing Ukrainian POWs for the exchange.[24]  The lack of Russian MoD confirmation contrasted with Prigozhin’s engagement with the exchange may suggest that the Wagner Group maintains a level of autonomy from the Russian MoD and was able to negotiate the exchange with the Ukrainian government independent from the Russian MoD. In the posted video, Prigozhin claimed that he ordered Wagner forces to provide Ukrainian POWs with food and water before their release and personally wished them good luck and health. A Wagner-affiliated milblogger noted that Wagner’s kindness to Ukrainian prisoners is particularly uncharacteristic for a unilateral prisoner exchange that was purportedly not coordinated with the Russian MoD or another entity.[25] Wagner is notorious for the mistreatment of POWs, engaging in several high-profile and widely circulated executions of both returned Wagner POWs and Ukrainian POWs under Wagner’s control.[26] The milblogger also criticized Prigozhin‘s decision to release such a large number of Ukrainian servicemen ahead of the anticipated large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive.[27] Prigozhin’s decision to release so many Ukrainian POWs at such a time likely suggests that the exchange returned high-value Wagner members whom he intends to redeploy on the battlefield. Prigozhin has previously accused Wagner POWs of being traitors and supported their execution, but the conditions of the April 16 prisoner exchange likely imply that he is prioritizing replenishing diminished Wagner units over his continued effort to project Soviet brutalist strength and appeal to Russian ultranationalists.[28]

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov also commented on the prisoner exchange on April 16. Kadyrov reported that five Chechens returned as part of the prisoner exchange but that he refused to meet them upon their arrival in Grozny.[29] Kadyrov claimed that the five Chechen fighters should prove their honor by returning to the frontlines, stating that Chechens do not interpret capture as an excuse to lay down arms but instead as an action forced upon them.[30] Kadyrov is likely using the POW exchange to fortify his own reputation as a capable and brutal silovik.

So Prig is maybe trying to show he can do what he wants without MoD permission?  Maybe he thought he could soften the backlash over the recent videos of how Wagner treats Ukrainian POWs?

Whatever is going on, it's an indication of Prig pursuing his own agenda his own way.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

This came out a bit garbled, almost like I wrote it, but not quite as bad. 

Heh.  Auto corrected from "happen" to "happy".  Now manually corrected to "happen"

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's report from the 16th gives me the impression that previous accounts of Russians going on the defensive in the Kreminna-Svatove may be true.  There seems to have been some sort of local counter attack by Ukraine that obligated Russians to retreat a little bit.  And in the south, there's reports that Russian artillery has started becoming more active, probably in hopes of disrupting whatever Ukraine is preparing for them.

Then there's this:

Quote

The Wagner Group likely continues to suffer heavy casualties in attritional offensive operations in Ukraine. Russian sources reported on April 16 that the Wagner Group’s cemetery in Bakinskaya, Krasnodar Krai grew by 60 graves since April 1.[61] A Russian milblogger amplified footage on April 15 of Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin unveiling a new section of a cemetery for Wagner fighters near Nikolaevka, Samara Oblast.[62]

This sort of thing might be used by some to try and peg how many men the Russians are losing at Bakhmut, but Prig's graveyard at best shows the minimum killed.  Why?  First, I don't think Prig is burying the hapless mobik cannon fodder he's apparently gained access to.  As they are the most likely to die, there's likely a whole swath of KIA that aren't represented in the graveyard.  Second, the VDV units are now a significant part of the effort to take Bakhmut, and they are also using mobiks and even prisoners, so there's more casualties that aren't going to be counted in Prig's graveyard.  Third, there's probably a lot of bodies that the Russians have not recovered for various reasons. Especially because their poorly trained infantry seem to be prone to dying en mas.

Just pointing out that when examining statements and assessments, even from really great sources like ISW, one has to keep in mind context.

Steve

[Yet]

3 hours ago, Fenris said:

Unfortunate but understandable I suppose

 

has it already been geolocated? 

[Haiduk]

Situation in Bakhmut. 

Yesterday UKR troops could retake railway station and push off Russians from bus station nearby, though couldn't take positions there, so bus station in grey zone. During the night Russians coducted several counter attacks and could regain some positions, but railway station still under UKrainian control. Fighter of 93rd mech.brigade in own video points out Russian artillery doesn't stop itself, when Ukrainian arty isn't heard

[Haiduk]

UKR UAV has struck power subsration in Belgorod this night

Btw, Prigozhyn is alarming UKR offensive can be targeted to Belgorod, Kursk or Briansk.

2023 year is 405th anniversary of PLC campaign on Moscow, where cossacks of hetman Sahaidachnyi were significant force of PLC army ))) Then PLC couldn't take Moscow, but forced Moscovites to sign a peace on profitable terms for PLC. 

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Bradley in UKR pixel )

[Haiduk]

Drone recon unit "Signum" adjusts with drone thermal camera 60 mm mortar fire of 93rd mech.brigade unit on Wagner group in Bakhmut.

 

[kevinkin]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-critic-jailed-for-25-years-in-harshest-anti-war-ruling-yet/ar-AA19X8Ko

His treason conviction comes as Russia has expanded the legal definition of that crime to cover disclosures of public information that the Kremlin deems harmful to its interests.

“This is a warning to all anti-Putin activists - don’t come back or we’ll lock you up, de facto for life,”  Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the R.Politik political consultancy, wrote in Telegram.

[kevinkin]

https://www.businessinsider.com/american-scientists-turning-dead-birds-into-drones-study-flight-techniques-2023-4

A perfect send off for a flock of mobiks?

[Bearstronaut]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Now THERE's an angle I forgot to explore...  there is absolutely no need for a 19 year old to be doing this sort of work.  We have civilians for that who are already knowledgeable about IT and what will happen to his or her kids' family life if mommy or daddy decide to share government secrets with the wrong people.  Sure, those contractors cost more money than Airman Affordable, but in life you get usually get what you pay for.

Steve

35Ts are immensely useful to the Army. Sure, a lot of their garrison duties could be done by civilians, but almost every single one of those civilians is a former 35T. In the field, forget about it. You aren't going to have middle aged civilian contractors out working on classified systems with a maneuver brigade during combat operations. As someone who used the systems the 35Ts maintained, they were some of the most important people out there. Also, not everyone joins the military to kick in doors and shoot people in the face. I did nerd stuff too but I was no less a soldier than any 11B. I had to meet the same standards of behavior and physical ability that they did.

[Haiduk]

Russian tank, driving across Maryinka was struck by FPV drone, armed with PG-7 HEAT projectile, but likely the hit was in ERA block - tank has survived and continued own mission.

 

 

[Kinophile]

"Do You not believe in the existence of Paint?" 

 

[Battlefront.com]

52 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

35Ts are immensely useful to the Army. Sure, a lot of their garrison duties could be done by civilians, but almost every single one of those civilians is a former 35T. In the field, forget about it. You aren't going to have middle aged civilian contractors out working on classified systems with a maneuver brigade during combat operations. As someone who used the systems the 35Ts maintained, they were some of the most important people out there. Also, not everyone joins the military to kick in doors and shoot people in the face. I did nerd stuff too but I was no less a soldier than any 11B. I had to meet the same standards of behavior and physical ability that they did.

Not to keep the off topic conversation going, just wanted to say I agree with all of this.  There is a need for uniformed tech personnel because civilians tend to like regular work hours, personal days off, and can quit any day of the week.  However, if the keys to the kingdom need to be handed out, better they go to senior uniformed or civilian techies and let the 35Ts come along for a supervised ride.

Steve

[Haiduk]

38 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

"Do You not believe in the existence of Paint?" 

 

It reminds me some conspiracy sh...t, when somebody of Trump-followers, showing the photos of building in Kyiv struck by missile and being rebuilt since year, claimed "there is no war really in Ukraine, it's all TV fake, because 1) it's impossibe to rebuild tall building in term of warfare, 2) it's doesn't seem any sense because it can be hit again, so it's wasting of money, 3) there is building materials crisis in the world, where collapsing Ukraine could get so much materials?" 

[Harmon Rabb]

42 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

It reminds me some conspiracy sh...t, when somebody of Trump-followers, showing the photos of building in Kyiv struck by missile and being rebuilt since year, claimed "there is no war really in Ukraine, it's all TV fake, because 1) it's impossibe to rebuild tall building in term of warfare, 2) it's doesn't seem any sense because it can be hit again, so it's wasting of money, 3) there is building materials crisis in the world, where collapsing Ukraine could get so much materials?" 

Guess we were all fooled all along. The biggest war in Europe since WW2 and arguably the most visually documented war in human history, was just a Hollywood production right out of Wag the Dog.

But Seriously, I remember some of this nonsense on Twitter, did not even want to pollute this forum by posting it here. Figured thoroughly mocking poorly informed individuals on a forum like this would be low hanging fruit.

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Guess we were all fooled all along. The biggest war in Europe since WW2 and arguably the most visually documented war in human history, was just a Hollywood production right out of Wag the Dog.

But Seriously, I remember some of this nonsense on Twitter, did not even want to pollute this forum by posting it here. Figured thoroughly mocking poorly informed individuals on a forum like this would be low hanging fruit.

The most common one I saw was people saying the destroyed cities we were seeing were either the same place or the destruction was caused by Ukraine to increase sympathy for it.  Similar accusations about the losses documented by groups like Oryx.  The fact that Oryx documents each vehicle destroyed in detail and makes it available to the public doent impress such people at all.  They just wave their hand and say "yeah, but PhotoShop does all kinds of things" without knowing anything about photo manipulation.

This is all part of the extreme mindset's cognitive dissonance.  Have a point of view and make the facts fit it, no matter what.

Steve

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The most common one I saw was people saying the destroyed cities we were seeing were either the same place or the destruction was caused by Ukraine to increase sympathy for it.  Similar accusations about the losses documented by groups like Oryx.  The fact that Oryx documents each vehicle destroyed in detail and makes it available to the public doent impress such people at all.  They just wave their hand and say "yeah, but PhotoShop does all kinds of things" without knowing anything about photo manipulation.

This is all part of the extreme mindset's cognitive dissonance.  Have a point of view and make the facts fit it, no matter what.

Steve

I like to think this is a result of the Digital Refugee generation - a lot of over 50s who have very high voting turnout and political opinions and almost zero modern information assessment skills. 

People like my mother who was convinced that the Rust shooting-tragedy was a Trump supporter-staged conspiracy to discredit Alec Baldwin for all his unflattering impersonations of the former president.  My mother has a PHD in English literature and is a retired college professor, demonstrating that higher education is not really an counter to just plain old online stupid rumors.

My hope as we all die out the generations coming up are so much more savvy...because I am not sure they could surpass our current nadir.  

[sburke]

14 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

My hope as we all die out the generations coming up are so much more savvy...because I am not sure they could surpass our current nadir.  

I think history has shown you are destined for disappointment.