How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Eddy said:

hefttruck

Heft means to lift I think a hefttruck is what we call a Hiab

[Lethaface]

2 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Ok they bought the tanks from the Czech and give them to the Ukraine. It makes sense, or does it? Could give the money to the Ukraine and then they buy the tanks from the Czech. They could suspect some corruption and make sure the Ukraine army receives their MBTs.

 

Or it might just be efficient, Ukraine has enough on their hands. 

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Lethaface said:

Or it might just be efficient,

A bank draft to the seller and do the delivery to the Ukrainian recipient. Ok I am not in charge.  

[Cogust]

I would be surprised if there were burn bags, that sounds like a bad solution, I would expect that hard copies are shredded instead to destroy them instantly when they are no longer needed.

That is how we do it from where I am from, we also have to register all S and TS hard copies and sign for them to be able to take them away. I thought that was common sense, but apparently not.

Edited April 14, 2023 by Cogust

[Lethaface]

Well it's all speculation until we know more. A network infrastructure / encryption admin doesn't necessarily need access to classified stuff, but often needs elevated technical permissions which can mean that he inadvertently had access to stuff on systems which was meant to have an extra layer of protection/encryption. 
Or he was able to reprint stuff from the printers logbook, or just made some extra copies of documents he needed to copy for someone else.
But for the moment we just don't know how he got these docs.

We do know that he had some tech level function but was too stupid to realize that sharing (very) sensitive files with 'friends' is very dumb and sharing something on discord/online is even dumber. I mean he didn't even have the intention to leak it beyond his discord friends, or so they say. 
Something doesn't add up somewhere, I'll guess some of the specifics will soon be made public.

Edited April 14, 2023 by Lethaface

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, Ultradave said:

Rules for thee and not for me.

I can't imagine the kid not singing like a bird and all those inside the beltway types eating crow before Congress. They will make an example of the airmen, then go there merry way and nothing will change. Imagine what a determined enemy is planting in America's hallowed halls. This kid was bush. 

[Beleg85]

Just a curiosity about models used to simulate weather conditions for incoming mechanized offensives- since of course soil does not get dry everywhere at once, it's rather complicated engineering issue, involving quite a lot of physics of earth and liquids (PL, autotranslated to ENG):

https://edwardweinert-com.translate.goog/kiedy-zniknie-bloto-i-rusza-czolgi/?_x_tr_sl=pl&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Edited April 14, 2023 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

Situation in Bakhmut according to Bakhmut Demon

Apr 13 day

There are heavy clashes for railway station and territory around. Russians hammered all around with heavy arty and airstrikes, so UKR troops couln't be keep positions. There are many local clashes with variable success. Everything is changing continuously. Some good news from central part of the city - we have successful counter-attack, but details shouldn't be issued.

Southern part of city - we have success along Korsuns'koho str. - clashes are continuing, guys are holding, we even slightly push forward, but not so much, just retaken several previously lost positions.

Northern part of city - situation is more tense, but controlled. 

Orcs are throwing to Bakhmut more and more own meat. 

Apr. 13 night

Nothing good.... Russians are crossing railway, alas.

Apr. 14 (late mornig- noun)

Russian artilery is working very tough. We still hold corridor to Kostiantynivka, do not allow motherf...rs to cross railways, their assaults of Ivanivske and Khromove failed again. We have won one more day, but what will be further, I'not predicting

Apr 14 (mid of the day)

We are advancing along several streets simultainously in northern and southern parts of the city. But this is tactical offensives we didn't break nothing yet. Just our artillery succesfully worked out at orcs, depriving them of support. Railway hasn't been retaken yet [unclear what he meant] 

 Apr 14 (two hours ago)

The road through Ivanivske still holds by 5th assault brigade. Motherf...rs are trying to breakthrough, but proper approach to defense organization of this extra-important "way of life" doesn't allow to do it for them. More even, our guys are fighting them back in small forest southward from Ivanivske. Also we are attacking the enemy on the north of the city in garages area near railways.

The road to Bakhmut (probably from Kostiantynivka)

 

Edited April 14, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Lethaface said:

This was publicided yesterday, first time Dutch MoD has created a official list of the depth and breadth of the support send to Ukraine (although it's not exhaustive, opsec remains leading principe):

https://www.defensie.nl/onderwerpen/oostflank-navo-gebied/militaire-steun-aan-oekraine 

Not much stuff there that wasn't known here, but some numbers are new I think:

T-72s were a surprise to me.  So either purchased or traded.  I see the speculation they came from our Czech friends.  That would make sense.

So nearly 200 YPR.  That's quite a bit more than I thought and it explains why we have seen so many videos of them in action

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, AlexUK said:

If… and this is a huge if, western countries had not supported Ukraine with ammunition, arms and training, I can’t see how Ukraine could have got to now without capitulating. I assume they would have run out of heavy munitions long ago, based on latest US leak, and they wouldn’t have been able to disable anywhere near the Russian equipment/forces that they actually have. 
 

They wouldn’t necessarily have been able to conquer all of Ukraine militarily but the damage inflicted would have led to Ukraine’s surrender. 
 

Am I wrong?

You are correct.  This would have devolved into a long term insurgency absent Western aid.  Ukraine would eventually win, but the ending would look very different than whatever comes out of this war.  Ironically there would be a lot less destruction of Ukrainian towns and cities if this had gone into insurgent mode, but the suffering would be worse.  The impact on Ukraine as a nation state would be catastrophic.  We've seen now, for sure, that Russia is operating with a genocidal mindset.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Ultradave said:

"just wanted to inform some of his friends about what’s going on"

 I've seen this a couple times and it seems to be put forward as almost an excuse. What a crock.

It's been 2 years, but I'd say this is not just on him. There is something in the overall classified info handling of the organization that is not working, and lax. Where I was there were so many controls:

a. The entire floor I worked on was a classified repository. No phones, no cameras, no recording devices, no smartwatches, no iPods - nothing with ANY memory of any kind allowed past the combo lock door. There were small lockers outside in the elevator lobby. Everyone had their own assigned to lock up their stuff and there were a bunch for visitors - drop your stuff, take the key. 

b. Inside that Closed Area (that's what it's called), classified computers are in a separate room you have to have access to.

    1.  It's physically impossible to write anything to CD/DVD or USB.

    2. There is a printer, and you can print out things, and you have to log into the printer and it logs the files that are printed, which is routinely audited.

    3. The computer system is routinely (like weekly) audited and if you had tried to access something that you don't have access to, questions will be asked. Most of the time it's innocent. You actually did need to look up something but don't have access to something that you really did need. So you have to put in a request. Your department manager has sign off on it certifying you have a need to know.

    4. If you for some reason DO need something written to CD/DVD there is a group of about 5 people in the company who will do that and provide it, again, requested and management approval. No one else can even physically do it, let alone by rules.

All of the above is for up to Confidential-Restricted Data (Restricted Data is nuclear information, whether propulsion or weapons).

For Secret and Top Secret, there is a separate Closed Area INSIDE the Closed Area. There is a two man rule. Again, NOTHING with any memory allowed inside. Nothing can leave. If you take something out of a file, it either has to be returned and logged back in, or destroyed. You cannot take anything inside to make notes with. There is marked papers inside to make notes and it stays inside.

For disposal, there are burn bags for media, and bins for shredding. The shredding is by an outside contractor, but the locked bins (Like curbside trash bins) are brought to the back door and security watches as they are loaded into the truck sized shredder.

At the door/gate, you can bring in a lunchbox and on the way home it will be checked (randomly). 

I'll stop here, but as you can see, there has to be a significant breakdown in the implementation of procedures for someone to create a security breach like this.  I thought a little context on how it's SUPPOSED to be done might be useful.  Everyone where I worked took security very seriously.  

I'd wager there is more to come after a thorough review of the organization's security procedures. We may or may not hear much about that, unless it's discovered he had active accomplices.

One caveat - this is all where I worked or visited (national labs). The problems at the White House are different. It's obvious from what has happened these last several years that security procedures are "different" there. Rules for thee and not for me.

Dave

Thanks for all that Dave.  This is the standard I think we all imagine being adhered to universally.  Unfortunately, a chain is only as strong as its weakest link.  I think we'll find out three things from what went wrong where:

1.  the post 9/11 efforts to "un-stovepipe" intel sharing has some serious and unnecessary flaws.  The sorts of products this intel unit had access to appears to have been unnecessary.  If it was necessary, it seems there needs to be an overhaul of how it is dealt with.

2.  there was some serious systemic problems with following process within the unit.  Multiple ones most likely as the overlapping layers of process are supposed to correct for specific mistakes or nefarious acts.

3.  screening personnel is just not what it needs to be.  If there is still a need for a glorified admin assistant, then it should go to someone with at least 4-5 years in service.  Yeah, it will cost more money, but drop in the bucket compared to what some numbnuts out of highschool with the mentality of a highschooler can do.

Steve

[billbindc]

17 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

This MA ANG squadron really needed *all* of THIS Intel? And that is happening with ALL of this trove of highest level stuff, and all available at every ANG in the USA, and therefore all the other bases everywhere? Every installation of every branch accesses essentially all facets and levels of military and related diplomatic classifications? With this same unsupervised point of failure - a guy like this? If so, as I said before, forget the illusion that *any* military secrets are…secret. They already flew the coop. Just weren’t all openly published by a nutjob.

It’s a NORAD station. 

[Lethaface]

38 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

T-72s were a surprise to me.  So either purchased or traded.  I see the speculation they came from our Czech friends.  That would make sense.

So nearly 200 YPR.  That's quite a bit more than I thought and it explains why we have seen so many videos of them in action

Steve

It does indeed explain (there have also been lost quite a couple of YPR according to Oryx, but this puts that in perspective a bit).

The T-72 story how I understood is that US&NL together bought 90 from CZ and paid to have them refurbished/upgraded. I also read they were to become the T-72EA standard. How much of that is truth I don't know.

Our MoD posted this picture with the infographic but I'm not sure whether that's accurate or just some picture they found fitting for the publication:

 

At the same time most of the picture seem accurate enough. For anyone wondering what type of 'shovel' was send :

 

Edited April 14, 2023 by Lethaface

[Seminole]

6 hours ago, Yskonyn said:

So with the way things have been revealed over the last two days concerning the ANG leaker; are we positive this was NOT a psyop afterall now?

Or is there still a thinkable scenario that this whole ordeal has been set up deliberately?

 

 

 

[A Canadian Cat]

19 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Journalists are the only ones I can think of that make a point of saying they remain absolutely exempt and courts are not necessarily in agreement on that.

Priests and ministers come to mind. And they cannot even be jailed.

[Lethaface]

One thing I was wondering about is the perceived lack of Russian ATGM / AT assets among the infantry in relation to the anticipated Ukrainian spring/summer offensive. 
If Ukraine will indeed be able to have built up a decent number of mechanized/armored brigades trained good enough for large operations, combined with the proper support assets we have already seen in use, one can wonder if some of the more 'enthusiastic' members here which spoke of armored trusts towards the Azov sea might see some truth to their predictions in the end. 

Of course it depends on a lot more than just the Russian infantry AT capabilities, but as all CM'ers know infantry without AT weaponry (or other forms of AT capable support including artillery), suck defending against mechanized/armored forces.

At the same time I don't know whether the Russian forces do indeed lack good numbers of AT assets among their infantry destined to be defending against wherever the Ukraine attacks will take place.

 

[Lethaface]

5 minutes ago, IanL said:

Priests and ministers come to mind. And they cannot even be jailed.

I think every country has their own rules. Over here various types of employment have some form of 'job secrecy', implications differ between the jobs. Journalists have the right to protect their sources but the court can take them hostage as a witness. Doctors/psychologists etc usually also have protection, with certain limitations. For example if a patient/client tells them about a planned terror attack, she/he has to inform the proper authorities. 

[sburke]

Steve did you get a deal on a used Russian tank?

Russian tank captured by Ukrainian forces turns up at Louisiana truck stop (yahoo.com)

A Russian tank used in the assault on Ukraine has mysteriously appeared at a truck stop in the US.

The T-90 tank is thought to have been captured last September by Ukraine’s 92nd Separate Mechanised Brigade, after being used in fighting in the Kharkiv region of north west Ukraine.

The combat vehicle was left on a low loader in the parking lot of a restaurant in the state of Louisiana.

Local reports suggest that after the truck towing the tank broke down, the vehicle was left at Peto’s Travel Center and Casino in Roanoke, Louisiana, next to US Interstate 10.

[Battlefront.com]

56 minutes ago, IanL said:

Priests and ministers come to mind. And they cannot even be jailed.

 Not exactly true in the US, at least.  As with other professions there appears to be a legal duty to inform law enforcement of ongoing crimes.  Just saw this from a couple of days go where some US states are explicitly stripping "confessional privilege" from child abuse situations:

https://www.americamagazine.org/faith/2023/03/08/delaware-bill-break-seal-confession-priest-report-244862

Anyway, a bit off topic especially since law enforcement did not need the journalists.

Steve

[sburke]

More infighting in Russia?

Blogger who called Vladimir Putin ‘soft on Ukraine’ sought by Russian authorities (yahoo.com)

A prominent Russian blogger who has accused Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, of losing the war by being too soft on Ukraine may be facing criminal charges for “discrediting” the army.

...

Now he appears to have been accused of “discrediting the Russian armed forces”, a criminal offence usually levelled at anti-war activists that can lead to a fine or a prison sentence if committed twice.

On Friday, the authorities reportedly launched a preliminary investigation into Girkin after a private citizen from Moscow filed a complaint, according to several Russian media outlets quoting unnamed police officials.

Police in St Petersburg earlier this week were approached by a woman identified as Tatyana who claims she watched Girkin’s online show on March 20 and found his remarks to be offensive to the Russian army, the media outlet Mash reported.

The hour-long show that day saw Girkin accuse Putin of “behaving like a doormat, not the president of a country with a millenia-long history” and suggesting he blew the chance to capture Kharkhiv and Odessa in 2014 “practically without a single shot”.

He also blasted the Russian leadership for dragging their feet on the offensive in eastern Ukraine.

[Ultradave]

32 minutes ago, sburke said:

Steve did you get a deal on a used Russian tank?

Probably an effort to make sure that frontal armor bug is truly quashed. Research on the actual thing 

[Seminole]

It's been no secret that US and Poland ties, particularly on the level of military coordination, have greatly accelerated in recent years. This has been especially on display since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Poland's prime minister on Thursday lashed out at French President Emmanuel Macron's controversial China comments which came just after his visit with Xi Jinping. Mateusz Morawiecki openly mocked the French leader's call for European 'strategic autonomy', which included follow-up comments about not being Washington's "vassals". 

"European autonomy sounds fancy, doesn't it? But it means shifting the center of European gravity towards China and severing the ties with the US," Morawiecki said in response.

"Short-sightedly they look to China to be able to sell more EU products there at huge geopolitical costs, making us more dependent on China and not less," the Polish prime minister continued while on a visit to Washington.

"Some European countries are trying to make with China the same mistake which was made with Russia -- this dramatic mistake," he added. His scathing critique of Macron's words, which we reviewed previously, were given before the NATO-linked Atlantic Council think tank in D.C.

According to more from Morawiecki's speech:

Paraphrasing Macron's remarks without naming him, Morawiecki said, "You cannot protect Ukraine today and tomorrow by saying Taiwan is not your business."

"I think that, God forbid, if Ukraine falls, if Ukraine gets conquered, the next day China may attack -- can attack -- Taiwan," he said.

Alluding to Macron's comments alongside President Xi Jinping about a more multipolar role, Morawiecki scoffed

"European autonomy sounds fancy, doesn't it? But it means shifting the center of European gravity towards China and severing the ties with the US," he said.

"I do not quite understand the concept of strategic autonomy if it means de facto shooting into our own knee."

During the remarks Morawiecki also took swipes at lukewarm European support to Ukraine when compared to the United States, in statements which seemed implicitly directed at Germany and France, per AFP:

Western European nations have grown accustomed to a model based on cheap energy from Russia, high-margin trade with China, low-cost labor from Eastern Europe and "security for free from the United States," Morawiecki said.

"Now their modus vivendi collapsed in ruins so what do they do? They want a quick ceasefire, armistice, in Ukraine, almost at any price," he said.

Some politicians in Western Europe are thinking, "'Ukraine, why are you fighting so bravely?'" he said.

Despite pressure from allies, Macron has made no apologies, but in fact has doubled-down. "Being an ally does not mean being a vassal … [or] mean that we don’t have the right to think for ourselves," he said in follow-up during a Wednesday visit to Amsterdam. 

As a reminder, while speaking with reporters aboard COTAM Unité (France’s Air Force One) over the weekend immediately following his time spent with Xi, the French President said that the "great risk" facing Europe right now is that it "gets caught up in crises that are not ours, which prevents it from building its strategic autonomy."

Macron's articulating a concept of strategic autonomy for Europe was 'enthusiastically endorsed' by Xi and the CCP, who have been focusing on the notion that the West is in decline while China rises, and that weakening the transatlantic relationship will accelerate this trend. "The paradox would be that, overcome with panic, we believe we are just America’s followers," said Macron. "The question Europeans need to answer … is it in our interest to accelerate [a crisis] on Taiwan? No. The worse thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and take our cue from the U.S. agenda and a Chinese overreaction."

And this: "If the tensions between the two superpowers heat up … we won’t have the time nor the resources to finance our strategic autonomy and we will become vassals," Macron said.

[Haiduk]

Sloviansk. Several S-300 were launched on the city. One hit residential building. 6 dead (including a child) and 15 wounded. At least 6 can be under ruines

This photo illustrates how deep can penetrate even HE-FRAG missile. The buildng is late "khrushchovka", assembled of concrete panels (initially its were of bricks)

 

[Seminole]

Russian T-90 Tank From Ukraine Mysteriously Appears At U.S. Truck Stop

The folks at Peto’s Travel Center and Casino in Roanoke, Louisiana see all kinds of vehicles pull up, but Tuesday night was different. What ended up in their parking lot is certainly something of a mystery, to say the least.

Someone left a Russian T-90A tank, which open source intelligence (OSINT) trackers say was captured by Ukraine last fall, on a trailer after the truck hauling it broke down and pulled into this truck stop off U.S. Interstate 10. An employee at Peto's, and the individual who first posted the images on Reddit, shared them with The War Zone.

more pics at the link

[Haiduk]

Bakhmut Demon:

For today we captured 40 Russians. Yes, this was a result of our several local assaults. Our arty worked so cool, that they were completely in fu..g shock, crawled into cracks like rats, lost communication and fell in our hands. We will not cut their heads, but would love to very much... 

Interesting, that in some cases Wagner veterans commanded by squads of Russian regulars. Did Prigozhyn made peace with Shoigu? [I think, that were not "cadre" regulars, but mobiks - this is now usual practice, when mobiks are attached to Wagner or LDPR units]

Batch of today's captured Russians in Bakhmut. Looks like guy in multicam is "core" Wagner, other in dirt-olive  uniform are mobicks or convicts

Though, Russians probably captured railway station  - their group was spotted west behind railways in station area.

Edited April 14, 2023 by Haiduk