How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

This isn't good:

Ukraine War Plans Leak Prompts Pentagon Investigation

Classified documents detailing secret American and NATO plans have appeared on Twitter and Telegram.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/us/politics/ukraine-war-plan-russia.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20230406&instance_id=89600&nl=from-the-times&regi_id=77867169&segment_id=129786&te=1&user_id=06eb42ecc9056dd32ea63af0c30707b6

News is fast breaking and no other major online news source has came up in my search, so apologies for the paywall.

The publication of this information isn't really that much of a problem for Ukraine because the source was probably the Kremlin.  In other words, they already had the information in hand.  And given how many agents Russia has operating with Ukraine, I'd be surprised if they didn't have a pretty good idea what was going on even without these documents.

So it seems the main purpose here is to wage a disinformation campaign to help motivate Russians to fight.

Steve

Russian journalist Sasha Kots calls out this Telegram channel:
 

[Chibot Mk IX]

40 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup!  And for sure that thought crossed my mind.  It certainly is possible, but I dunno... this has the feeling of a Russian op.  There's potentially damaging stuff in there, even if it's false.

Steve

Yes,

IMHO, those potentially damaging stuff may not be so easily secured from the beginning. It will be leaked one way or another. So from a military deception perspective, these information can be used as ingredients for a poison.

As people says, the best way to deceive is to mix the truth with the lies (at 70:30 level). So you have the potential damage stuff sent out as the "truth", to convince Russia the authenticity of the leak, and cover the "lies" to be successfully transferred to Russian. 

Russia, if takes the bait, is unlikely to publish information contains "lies" to the public as they could consider these are critical information. 

Anyway, we will see if this is a brilliant deception operation or a stupid leak. Time will tell.

[JonS]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

F-16s

Once again: kit porn

The aircraft (or tanks) in themselves aren't especially important. The system they operate within is everything.^ The USAF could be flying Phantoms and it would be almost as effective as it is with F-35s and F/A-18s.

In some ways it's not surprising this pilot doesn't perceive the wider system, in the same way a fish doesn't perceive the water it swims in. But, you know. Pilots are supposed to be smart.

 

^ the canonical example here is the Germans using PzIIs to defeat French CharBs in 1940. The Germans didn't win that stoush because the PzII is an objectively better tank than the CharB.

Edited April 7, 2023 by JonS

[Kinophile]

Interesting 

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Yes,

IMHO, those potentially damaging stuff may not be so easily secured from the beginning. It will be leaked one way or another. So from a military deception perspective, these information can be used as ingredients for a poison.

As people says, the best way to deceive is to mix the truth with the lies (at 70:30 level). So you have the potential damage stuff sent out as the "truth", to convince Russia the authenticity of the leak, and cover the "lies" to be successfully transferred to Russian. 

Russia, if takes the bait, is unlikely to publish information contains "lies" to the public as they could consider these are critical information. 

Anyway, we will see if this is a brilliant deception operation or a stupid leak. Time will tell.

That's what I was thinking also.  Whether this is an actual leak, meaning stolen intel, or a feint, it can still be used to confuse Herr Putler about the Pas de Calais attack if you get my meaning.  I mentioned a recently that by the time UKR attacks there will be so much information that RU will be confused even though it actually has the correct info because it won't know what is real & what is fake.  In a situation where leaks could be devastating, maybe the best thing to do is to pre-empt w lots of true  & false data. 

Either way, I think UKR will have multiple plans which can be triggered based on what bait RU bites.

[sburke]

42 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Either way, I think UKR will have multiple plans which can be triggered based on what bait RU bites.

the info in the leak isn't an attack plan, it is more the outfitting/supply resource plan. This could give Russia some perspective on the possible scale of an offensive.  If it is an intentional leak, it could be an attempt to provoke Putin to go full bore on mobilization with all that potential risk for Russia.

Edited April 7, 2023 by sburke

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Interesting 

I want to see the wrench. I am also pretty impressed by who ever is doing that with that equipment beside a barn somewhere.

[danfrodo]

18 minutes ago, sburke said:

the info in the leak isn't an attack plan, it is more the outfitting/supply resource plan. This could give Russia some perspective on the possible scale of an offensive.  If it is an intentional leak, it could be an attempt to provoke Putin to go full bore on mobilization with all that potential risk for Russia.

Good point, I didn't look closely at what had been shared until after I posted.  But going forward if you, Beleg, TheCapt & others could please restrict your comments to things that I want to hear instead of things that make sense it would be greatly appreciated.

[The_Capt]

17 hours ago, sburke said:

this is getting really old and is a complete derailment of the thread.  Unless you think Ukraine has no right to decide its own future what the heck are you going on about?

If you do feel that Ukraine has no right to make any decision on its future that Russia does not approve of then go somewhere else.

Enough already.  Calling the Ukrainian fight to defend its right to self-determination from a barbaric aggressor state "choosing to become a party to various and sundry conflicts" is insulting to all our Ukrainian members of this forum who are currently part of a fight to defend their country's right to exist.

Now, now this gentleman has presented a very coherent strategy on how to decisively lose the next Cold War/strategic competition.  This will guarantee a US hard power contraction, which means soft power will be right behind it - I mean why invest in the US on many levels if they refuse to actually “get involved”? What value is US diplomacy if security means America only?  This is right up the alley of a certain political figure that it could be ripped from one of his speeches. 

And into these vacuums other powers are going to quickly pivot - they already have.  With their increased influence investment in the US will start to dry up - deals will be cut to ensure it, as will supply chains and consumption.  In a few years the US dollar will no longer be the global reserve currency.  This will pretty much set up the West for fracture as Europe will figure out pretty quick that it has been largely abandoned to its own devices.  A whole lotta nations in the Indo-Pac are going to also bail.

I mean the logical extension of Step 1 is China can invade Taiwan, North Korea into South Korea, India and Pakistan can totally blow up.  Screw Ukraine. Russia can pretty much do whatever it wants. US out of NATO - because that entire thing rides on allied intervention, so Europe is on its own. 5 EYES is gone.  Forget global cooperation on trans-regional crime and terrorism because unless it happens in the US - “not our problem”.

In fact this is so monumentally stupid that of course people who are looking for easy answers in a very complex and frightening world are gravitating towards it.  I mean the entire deal that keeps the US on top  is built in global stability backed not only by the US dollar but also carrier groups - so it is entirely logical that if you pull those groups back and let them float only 200 miles off the US coastline that US global influence will remain extant.  The US can probably drastically reduce defence spending and focus on building walls though.

Here is a crazy idea: if the US does not step up and in to keep some sort of order on this planet, someone else will. The US does not get to withdraw into fortress North America (while choking out immigration with a declining birth rate) and remain a global economic superpower.  Hard power backs soft- that US dollar as much as whatever the US is selling (or more importantly, buying).  At least 3 generations of Americans had that one figured out, but now for some reason people have totally forgotten.  

Regardless, thankfully these complete amateurs are not running the show, yet.

 

Edited April 7, 2023 by The_Capt

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/this-means-war/id1629454648?i=1000607661928

 

U.S. and allied countries are having recruitment issues.

Edited April 7, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

37 minutes ago, sburke said:

the info in the leak isn't an attack plan, it is more the outfitting/supply resource plan. This could give Russia some perspective on the possible scale of an offensive.  If it is an intentional leak, it could be an attempt to provoke Putin to go full bore on mobilization with all that potential risk for Russia.

I would argue we don't want Putin to panic just yet. The ideal scenario is panicked mobilization after the land bridge is broken and Kerch bridge is in the water. Let the security forces try to round up another three or four hundred thousand people when not even the Putin regime's propaganda can spin the SMO as anything but a feckless failure

[kluge]

24 minutes ago, sburke said:

the info in the leak isn't an attack plan, it is more the outfitting/supply resource plan. This could give Russia some perspective on the possible scale of an offensive.  If it is an intentional leak, it could be an attempt to provoke Putin to go full bore on mobilization with all that potential risk for Russia.

Intentional or not, there's now an opportunity to mislead Russia about Ukraine's order of battle and the distribution of resources.

That being said, it's pretty clear that Russia wants to use the leak to signal that it has well placed eyes and ears. That's hardly news.

[Battlefront.com]

10 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Organization and equipment of Russian "Storm Units".

 

I'd like to talk about this as it is right up our alley.

Here's what the TO&E looks like in comprehensive text form:

Storm Z Company - 100 men
Company HQ - 2 men
    1x Company Commander
    1x Company Commander Ast

    1x Recon Group - 8 men
        1x Squad Leader
        1x Senior Scout
        1x Radioman
        1x Grenadier (RPG-7)
        1x LMG Gunner
        1x Sniper
        1x Sniper Ast
        1x Driver (Medium Truck)

     1x UAV Group -2 men
       1x Leader
       1x UAV Operator

    1x Combat Engineer Group - 5 men
        1x Squad Leader
        1x Senior Sapper
        1x Sapper
        1x Sapper
        1x Driver (Light Truck)

    1x Medevac Group - 3 men
        1x Squad Leader
        1x Medical Instructor
        1x Driver (Medium Truck)

    4x Capture Squad - 10 men each
        1x Group Leader
        1x Squad Leader / UAV Operator
        1x Radioman
        1x Grenadier (RPG-7)
        1x Grenadier Ast
        1x LMG Gunner
        1x LMG Ast
        1x Medic
        1x Sapper
        1x Driver (Medium Truck)

    4x Fire Support Squad - 10 men each
        1x Squad Leader / AGS Gunner
        1x AGS Gunner
        1x AGS Ast
        1x AGS Ast
        1x LMG Gunner
        1x LMG Gunner
        1x Rifleman (no specified role)
        1x Sniper
        1x Sniper
        1x Driver (Medium Truck)

Total personnel 100 men

 

In theory this is a very well armed and flexible group.  The structure indicates that there can be four platoon sized maneuver elements with an independent recon squad being a fifth.  The only other sizeable unit, Combat Engineer Group, lacks a radio and therefore is probably assumed subordinate to one of the other elements.

The Company Commander can mix and match a variety of capabilities around between the maneuver elements and/or hold assets in reserve under his direct command.  The medivac group is dedicated to removing wounded from the battlefield so none of the other assets are lost after casualties are taken.

The source notes that these units are being raised outside of the normal systems and appear to be Brigade/Regimental controlled formations.  Training is between 10-15 days.

 

Here's my take on this from a guy who has spent thousands of hours working with TO&E and watching how it works within simulated tactical battles:

1. The way it is set up is incredibly brittle.  It should either have half as many weapons or twice as many men.  Pretty much every single casualty eliminates a weapon or role as there are no multipurpose riflemen except for (possibly) one in the Fire Support Group.
2. The lack of redundant manpower means when a unit suffers casualties it not only means losing that particular capability, but it also means having to leave equipment and/or ammo on the battlefield because there's simply nobody to carry it forward or backward.
3. Leadership headcount is fairly standard for Russian units, which is inherently weak.  It's worse, though as the diversity of weaponry makes it unlikely the leaders will employ their weapons effectively.  Especially if a Capture Group is bulked up with more than just a Fire Support Group's units.
4. There is just barely enough organic transport to move the whole unit without assistance, but since they are soft skinned vehicles this means the units will have to hump all that equipment and ammo relatively long distances because the trucks won't be able to get close enough.  Either that or they will lose trucks, which then makes the unit slow to move for other reasons.  In other words, the vehicles provide the unit with operational mobility, not tactical.
5. There is absolutely no sustainment elements at all, which means they are 100% reliant upon coordination with higher level units for everything other than pulling triggers.  Given Russia's casualties and poor communications capabilities, this increases the chances that the unit finds itself unable to be resupplied at a critical point in time.  Waiting around for someone else to do something for them will further limit how quickly they can respond.
6. The ad-hoc nature of the Company as a whole, coupled with the paltry training, likely means high levels of casualties without much to show for it.

My bottom line conclusion is this formation is weak and poorly conceived.  When I was typing out the structure I kept feeling like I was documenting a late WW2 German experimental formation except with a bad idea as the starting point.

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

52 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And into these vacuums other powers are going to quickly pivot - they already have.

I'm OK with that because if there's a power vacuum where I live we'll be taken over by Canada.  More specifically, Quebec and New Brunswick.  I welcome their poutine and colorful money   20 years ago I'd also have welcomed their superior beer, but thankfully we fixed that problem on our own.  Though maple whiskey is still something we don't make enough of around here.

Anyway...

52 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Regardless, thankfully these complete amateurs are not running the show, yet.

A healthy system has extremes on both sides of an issue pushing ideas that are completely unworkable, often even counter productive, to solve a particular problem.  If either extreme gets too much say, their ideas get tried out too much, they fail, and most people wind up worse off (someone always manages to profit from even the dumbest and most incompetent concepts).  Which is why the middle exists.  It is there to take good ideals and find some way to make at least some of it work in the real world.

As a friend of mine out in the middle of the forest once said to me, "I think environmentalists are horrible, but I am glad they are around to balance out the companies that own the forests because if they didn't have environmentalists nipping at their heels they'd screw things up even worse".

The problem we have in society isn't the ideas of the left and the right, it's there's not enough good people in the middle to make sure neither of them screw things up too badly.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

U.S. and allied countries are having recruitment issues.

Yeah, this has been the case for some time now.  Pretty much any profession you can think of is having recruiting problems.  Doesn't matter if you're talking soldier, welder, cop, truck driver, commercial pilot, teacher, nurse, whatever... all are coming up short. 

Militaries are, like everybody else, having to increase incentives and decrease expectations in order to get people in the door.  The US Air Force, for example, just 4 days ago announced they have lowered their physical fitness standards for new recruits:

https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2023/04/03/fatter-recruits-now-welcome-as-air-force-revises-its-rules/

This is part of a larger trend of younger generations putting off career decisions or basing their decisions on things which many careers do not offer.  Horizontal organizations with rapid promotions, flex time, pot smoking, nobody yelling at you, and the ability to sleep until 10 certainly isn't really a thing in the military

Steve

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, this has been the case for some time now.  Pretty much any profession you can think of is having recruiting problems.  Doesn't matter if you're talking soldier, welder, cop, truck driver, commercial pilot, teacher, nurse, whatever... all are coming up short. 

Militaries are, like everybody else, having to increase incentives and decrease expectations in order to get people in the door.  The US Air Force, for example, just 4 days ago announced they have lowered their physical fitness standards for new recruits:

https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2023/04/03/fatter-recruits-now-welcome-as-air-force-revises-its-rules/

This is part of a larger trend of younger generations putting off career decisions or basing their decisions on things which many careers do not offer.  Horizontal organizations with rapid promotions, flex time, pot smoking, nobody yelling at you, and the ability to sleep until 10 certainly isn't really a thing in the military

Steve

Well, sometimes promotions can be quite rapid, but that is pretty much never good news.

 

[The_Capt]

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Horizontal organizations with rapid promotions, flex time, pot smoking, nobody yelling at you, and the ability to sleep until 10 certainly isn't really a thing in the military

Well pot smoking is on the menu now, at least for some of us.

[dan/california]

Just now, The_Capt said:

Well pot smoking is on the menu now, at least for some of us.

Various Ski resorts have tried to crack down on it over the years. They have uniformly changed there minds when they realized they could triple the pay or not open for the year. 

[The_Capt]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The problem we have in society isn't the ideas of the left and the right, it's there's not enough good people in the middle to make sure neither of them screw things up too badly.

The other big problem is that power hungry leaders on both extremes are creating a doctrine of absolutism.  There can be no middle ground when one’s identity is tied to uncompromising rigid belief systems that must stand even in the face of directly contradictory facts - simply choose to believe “alternative facts”.  To the players this is just a game to push support into their camps, but it is so dangerous.  Once you polarize enough and demonize the other side(s) to the point that there is no compromise…well that is how democracies die.

We see it here. We get drive bys by posters who are completely unsupported by facts and have constructed frameworks of how the world works to simply shore up the position that they are “better than them”.  Ignore an illegal war that is murdering thousands…they other guys are supporting it, it must be wrong.  And frankly the odd trolls that spin through here are pretty tame if one starts looking around.

Now I have to believe these are nothing more that vocal minorities; however, I am not entirely sure.  I am not sure where the middle went.  The moderates and compromise.  I am sure it is still there but some days it feels like it has already left the process.

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Various Ski resorts have tried to crack down on it over the years. They have uniformly changed there minds when they realized they could triple the pay or not open for the year. 

I live in the New Eden where I can buy pot in a store and smoke it behind a military mess.  Not that it is really doing that much for recruiting.

[kimbosbread]

41 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is part of a larger trend of younger generations putting off career decisions or basing their decisions on things which many careers do not offer.  Horizontal organizations with rapid promotions, flex time, pot smoking, nobody yelling at you, and the ability to sleep until 10 certainly isn't really a thing in the military

It's also pushing us towards ChatGPKill, which was gonna happen anyway, but will have to happen faster if we lose all our pilots and boat people in a war with China.

[dan/california]

23 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Well, sometimes promotions can be quite rapid, but that is pretty much never good news.

 

Apologies for quoting myself but this was worth adding.

Quote

 

Once a candidate was selected as an officer, promotion could be rapid. A. S. Smeltzer was commissioned as a second lieutenant in 1915, after serving in the Regular Army for 15 years. He rose in rank, and by the spring of 1917 had been promoted to lieutenant colonel and was commanding officer of the 6th Battalion, The Buffs (Royal East Kent Regiment).^[64]

Along with rapid promotion, the war also noticeably lowered the age of battalion commanding officers. In 1914, they were aged over 50, while the average age for a battalion commanding officer in the BEF between 1917 and 1918 was 28.^[65] By this stage, it was official policy that men over 35 were no longer eligible to command battalions.^[66] This trend was reflected amongst the junior officers. Anthony Eden was the Adjutant of a battalion when aged 18, and served as the brigade major in the 198th Brigade while still only aged 20.^[67]

 

from

Quote

^{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Army_during_the_First_World_War}

 

[Doc844]

Is it just me or is anyone else noticing an uptick in guerilla activity just recently.

[MikeyD]

Quote

It should either have half as many weapons or twice as many men. 

That was my thought too, a lot of 'specialists' and no actual infantrymen. But that was my impression going all the way back to CM:Afghanistan's Russian TO&E. Its the opposite concept to US Marines in CM which is extremely infantryman-heavy.

[Grossman]

Swedes say a state actor is the central scenario in the Nord Stream sabotage.

It took 500Kg of TNT. They have identified the explosive, but won't say what it was, whose signature is on the pipe. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/06/nord-stream-sabotage-pipeline-blasts