How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Astrophel]

18 minutes ago, Seminole said:

The Kyiv Independent news desk

February 28, 2023

One in three Ukrainian refugees in the European Union ultimately wants to return home. At the same time, a similar proportion would like to remain in their host countries, according to a new survey released on Feb. 28 by the EU Agency for Fundamental Rights (FRA). 

 …

According to the UN Refugee Agency, since the beginning of Russia’s all-out war against Ukraine, more than 8 million Ukrainian refugees have left for another European country, and about 4.8 million have applied for temporary protection in one of the EU countries.

 

Both Russia and Ukraine were in demographic decline already, the war has only exacerbated this.  The projections remain with a steeper decline in Ukraine than Russia, and Ukraine starts from a much smaller position.  This matters to Ukraine too.

What piqued my curiosity on this subject was an age graph I saw posted that suggested the population of 20-somethings has cratered in Ukraine. That seems militarily significant, especially when the Russians appear bent on attrition as their only hope.  
 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-ukraine-war-bakhmut-deaths-demographic-populations-9db5hg7sq

Researchers say the grinding battle and those ahead will make both Ukraine and Russia unrecognisable for generations to come. “It really is awful if you look at Ukraine’s demographic tree. There was already a really tiny proportion of the population in their twenties. Russia has a similar problem,” said Tymofiy Mylovanov, president of the Kyiv School of Economics and an adviser to Zelensky’s administration.

“Twenty years ago it was the end of the 1990s, the collapse of the Soviet Union, really tough times, particularly in Ukraine. People just put off having children. So we were looking at losing 33 per cent of the population even without talking about the war.”

The graph I was mentioning doesn’t show online anymore, but it was screen capped:

This Russian ‘journalist’s’ tweet has it:

https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1642413293896716289?s=20

Yes, the population of Ukraine is declining for many years, mostly thanks to emigration.  In the last 12 months the exodus has been dramatic thanks to the war.  Your taking UN statistics out of context to extrapolate a demographic catastrophe is intellectually dishonest at the very least.

There were roughly four million Ukrainians at the end of the 17th century.  Today there are 10 times that even by your estimation.  Ukraine will manage.

Given the beauty of the country and the natural resources and the energy of the people, my expectation is the population will grow once the russian threat is removed.  Ukraine has all the potential to be a hugely prosperous and inspiring place to live - but first the russians have to go.

[Haiduk]

Yuriy Ihnat, press-officer of Air Forces told now Ukraine has total five aviation brigades of fighter jets - 3 on MiG-29 and 2 on Su-27. He didn't say about number of jets, but this blogger pointed out that 72 total (I don't know where was taken this number).

Before the war each fighter jet brigade consisted of two squadrons per three flights. This gives 120 planes total, but likely brigades have combat trainers L-39 and not full squadrons due to losses. 

Since March we have received 14 MiG-29 (10 from Slovakia and 4 from Poland) and some will come in nearest weeks. 

Since 24th Feb we lost 18 MiG-29 (among them 4 on the ground) and 9 Su-27 (2 on the ground). Last Su-27 was lost week ago during interception of "Shakhed" - pilot lost. Total we lost 16 fighter-pilots - most of them were experienced pilots with ranks from major to colonel.  

During 2014-2022 we also lost 4 fighters: 2 MiG-29 (combat losses) and 2 Su-27 (accidents). Were lost two UKR pilots and one US (during crash of Su-27UB in 2018 on international maneuvers "Clear Sky-2018")

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

It makes one wonder if there if there are other discussions forums out there that do a better job at sticking to the war.

I found these other forums:

https://defencehub.live/threads/ukraine-russia-war.3279/
https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/119wltg/war_in_ukraine_megathread_lii/
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/

Do people know of others?

 

Just to say that I checked out these links.  Always good to see what's out there.  In the few pages of the first link I saw good stuff that we've also covered here, but I also saw several pro-Russian/anti-US diatribes and a discussion of demographics   Second one looks a lot like here, but definitely narrower.  Third one is a typical social media "page" where the top level posts are carefully controlled and are quite good, but usual social media commentary once you click on something.

All in all, the conversation here is high quality and on topic.  Even our off-topic stuff tends to be interesting IMHO.

Steve

 

[Lethaface]

The art of destabilization through 'alternative news' and useful idiots (including (subtle) kompromat) is one which Russia did master quite aptly (on this subject they did successfully pull of concentrated/coordinated multi domain operations, unlike in their military 'special' operation), but like Steve and others mentioned the invasion in Ukraine undid a lot of their achievements. 

In the UK Nigel Farage is a good example. The man had quite some vocabulary gifts and at times I liked to listen to him trashing other politicians for a good laugh, but in my court he'd been tried for treason / given a public speaking ban for being a liability to national security. 

The difficulty on this subject is the fact we (West) are democracies and unfortunately in most of our democracies there are no hard laws or countermeasures against lobbying for funding from non-disclosed (or consciously vague) sources. Be they an industrial consortium/kartel or another nation state. The same goes for misinformation through 'news' websites/media.

Russia isn't alone in that regard. China is very active as well, as is Israel; although each with their own interests in mind, not necessarily destabilization. At the same time 'we' are also lobbying inside other countries for our interests (or what we think is good for others), through NGO's and other mediums. 

Nation states with less democratic tendencies tend to have more strict controls to do something about those efforts, while in our democracies it's usually protected free speech / freedom of mind unless it can be proven with a smoking gun that someone is being paid by an external source to provide misinformation to the public. 

In our country we had an example of this problem during the covid pandemic. Some samba dance teacher turned into a 'virus expert' and his misinformed ideas (or cognitive dissonance) gained massive traction because he said what some people wanted to hear. I was all for locking the man up until after the pandemic, but our own checks and balances made that difficult. Probably for the better, when looked at what happened in the '30s of the previous century not that far from here.

This (our 'freedom' being used against us by less free nation states) is a weakness of all democratic countries and probably needs to be addressed in this century if we hold democracy dear.

Edited April 3, 2023 by Lethaface

[kevinkin]

53 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

In short, Ukraine has some serious demographic issues.  In fact, most of the "industrialized" world does.

But there is a big difference in that Ukraine is in a war where they are losing their youth at an alarming rate when you combine that with the ongoing population issues they faced before the war. Japan just announced incentives to raise families and they are not at war. I do believe that Ukrainians will return and perhaps given incentives too. But how many will be young men of child bearing age? If a large number, how will will they return and assimilate into a warrior class that stayed and fought the war? I am positive on Ukraine's future, but the road is a lot more than rocky. 

[Lethaface]

3 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

But how many will be young men of child bearing age?

 NOOOOOOOOOOoooooooo

 

[quakerparrot67]

16 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

But there is a big difference in that Ukraine is in a war where they are losing their youth at an alarming rate when you combine that with the ongoing population issues they faced before the war. Japan just announced incentives to raise families and they are not at war. I do believe that Ukrainians will return and perhaps given incentives too. But how many will be young men of child bearing age? If a large number, how will will they return and assimilate into a warrior class that stayed and fought the war? I am positive on Ukraine's future, but the road is a lot more than rocky. 

 you might have gotten away with 'child rearing' age.

 

cheers,

rob

[cesmonkey]

Another Kofman podast:

https://warontherocks.com/2023/04/russia-will-soon-be-on-the-defense-but-then-what/
RUSSIA WILL SOON BE ON THE DEFENSE, BUT THEN WHAT?
MICHAEL KOFMAN AND RYAN EVANSAPRIL 3, 2023

Quote

Mike Kofman joins the show yet again. This time, he explains why the debate over the wisdom of the Battle for Bahkmut is so important while still overshadowing other important debates. As Ukrainian forces are being pressed out of the city of Bahkmut, they preparing to go back on the offensive, which will put Russia on the defense. The critical issue in Mike’s view is what happens after the Ukrainian offensive.

 

[DesertFox]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Interesting, as it seems to show a position completely neutralized by drones and artillery alone.

Highly efficient. If they would be equipped with thermal night-vision drones, that would be an additional step to clean out the orcs.

[Haiduk]

UKROboronProm started to produce light FRAG bombs for drones

Bigger one is OBP 23.1 - 1 kg of weight, 11 m of hit radius, smaller one - OBP 23.05 - 0,5 kg, hit radius - 4,5 m

Edited April 3, 2023 by Haiduk

[kevinkin]

38 minutes ago, quakerparrot67 said:

 you might have gotten away with 'child rearing' age.

Well the point is the same  My one laptop doesn't type the r. It's on the shelf now. 

 

Edited April 3, 2023 by kevinkin

[cesmonkey]

The interview DefenseOne did with General Milley last week which they dribbled out in several news stories, is now available in full with audio:

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2023/04/defense-one-radio-ep-122-joint-chiefs-chairman-army-gen-mark-milley/384739/

[NamEndedAllen]

13 hours ago, Holien said:

It will happen.

I am watching a TV series on BBC about key military tech advances and yesterday detailed the advent of handguns and the use in political assassination. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b087xksp

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assassinations_by_firearm

 

Drones will be used, just humans being humans.

My Bet it will be in 2023 and then we will end up with a Wiki page like the one above....

 

 

 

 

Remember this?

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/hellfire-r9x-drone-strike-al-zawahiri/

[kevinkin]

https://mwi.usma.edu/what-is-russias-theory-of-victory-in-ukraine/

The Russian regime’s narrative surrounding victory in Ukraine is flexible, opportunistic, and subjective, focusing primarily on the perception of the Russian people that the achieved victory justifies the costs of the war. It is not aimed at the West.

An ultimate manifestation of a Russian victory would lie in a deal agreed upon with the United States that seals Ukraine’s future and secures Russian security interests for the long term. This would give the Russians their desired recognition as a world power, create additional strategic depth, and demonstrate successful resistance to Western economic and military power, ultimately bringing the desired multipolar world closer. The Russian geopolitical narrative, catalyzed by the classic security paradox with the West, will thus prove to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. It will be the dreamed-of situation, whereby Russia can declare victory in Ukraine, but not concerning the “radical” military-political objectives in the confrontation with the West. That struggle is perpetual, continuous, existential, and an integral part of Russian strategic culture.

[Lethaface]

8 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Remember this?

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/hellfire-r9x-drone-strike-al-zawahiri/

Or Soleimani. The west has been assassinating people using drones for quite a while lol.  

Edited April 3, 2023 by Lethaface

[Peregrine]

3 hours ago, Seminole said:

 How is it ‘misinformation’ to cite this analysis?

They are a graphs with numbers. Analysis would be explaining why at different times the population increased and decreased.

At no point on any of those graphs was Ukraine a country not at war with a democratic government with corruption trending downwards.

And if that is analysis it basically saying a median estimate is the Ukrainian population is heading towards 20 million. Great news for the taxpayer as you can basically start dismantling schools, hospitals and infrastructure now.

[NamEndedAllen]

1 minute ago, Lethaface said:

Or Soleimani. The west has been assassinating people using drones for quite a while lol.  

 

1 minute ago, Lethaface said:

Or Soleimani. The west has been assassinating people using drones for quite a while lol.  

Yeah. And earlier, the OP of previous OP, or was it the OP before that  was asking how long before every day non-state terrorists or heck: disgruntled domestic extremists pick up on proven techniques for the repurposed small commercial drones in Ukraine, and try them out instead of AR-15s and trucks driven into crowds? It’s off topic, but I have a bad feeling…

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

 

Yeah. And earlier, the OP of previous OP, or was it the OP before that  was asking how long before every day non-state terrorists or heck: disgruntled domestic extremists pick up on proven techniques for the repurposed small commercial drones in Ukraine, and try them out instead of AR-15s and trucks driven into crowds? It’s off topic, but I have a bad feeling…

Three 3D printed gun with three barrels and one bullet each attached to a quadcopter.  Follow target in car, wait for it to stop at a red light, lower drone, fire point blank, likely hit target in one shot, fly away with the all the evidence.  Can do this while target is standing in front of a window or any other situation where hearing the drone is unlikely.  Do it at night and seeing the drone is also avoided.  Target likes to go swimming?  Wait until in the water, drop drone down behind, and that's that.

Unfortunately, this is all a very real threat.  Not to mention what can be done with a drone to public infrastructure.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Three 3D printed gun with three barrels and one bullet each attached to a quadcopter.

You don't need a gun at all. Just go Phantasm style and put a drill with an electric motor on the front of the drone and fly straight into the target's forehead and drill baby drill. You can cobble together incredibly good face/head tracking software that will run on minimal hardware.

[Lethaface]

40 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

 

Yeah. And earlier, the OP of previous OP, or was it the OP before that  was asking how long before every day non-state terrorists or heck: disgruntled domestic extremists pick up on proven techniques for the repurposed small commercial drones in Ukraine, and try them out instead of AR-15s and trucks driven into crowds? It’s off topic, but I have a bad feeling…

Yeah I decided not to reply to that one but now we are here lol. 
I wouldn't be too worried, but then we don't have much AR-15 shootings here. I guess it doesn't really matter whether you go by AR-15 or a kamikaze drone. Such things (drone attacks) will surely happen one day.
But given that each year much more killings are done by and among ordinary citizens, instead of terrorist / extremist attacks, I wouldn't worry much more than one does now.
Unless you work in security for infrastructure or similar; a gate with a guard and camera isn't of much help against a drone flying over the fence somewhere out of sight.

Good business opportunity I guess: 'drone hunters' which you can hire as a service on a subscription plan. 

Edited April 3, 2023 by Lethaface

[NamEndedAllen]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

As Cpl Steiner has been around on this forum for 20+ years, I feel the need to respond directly:

I live in a country that is founded on rejecting external authority (in particular, the authority of your predecessors as it happens).  I also live in a part of the country that started the revolution and still idolizes it.  This same part of the country also goes through bouts of "the rest of the country is dragging us down, let them go".  Our country CONSTANTLY debates about the balance of powers between local, state, and national levels of governance.  I think it is both understandable and healthy to have these sorts of beliefs and debates.  Therefore, I don't think you were stupid or irrational for exploring Brexit.

Pro-Brexit voters are not necessarily stupid, irrational, or influenced by Russian propaganda.  Not all pro-Brexit voters are racist either.  However, it is highly probable that 1.9% of Britons who voted for Brexit fit into one or more of those categories.  Russia just had to help convince them to show up and vote for Brexit for whatever reason.  As I said, there is no way to know how much Russia helped make it happen, but they clearly put in the effort and reaped the reward.

Steve

 

This is so well expressed. I’d like to add one more thing implied but often left unsaid. Russia clearly did not have either Britain’s, the EU’s, or the USA’s best interests in mind. In politics *these* days this is a hard fact for sone to swallow, despite how obvious it is. But debates like Brexit, or the vexing cultural debates in the USA are quite complex. They contain numerous separate issues and questions. When we uncover, or refuse to see, or discover later that a hostile foreign power is striving to push the decision in one direction, to cast doubt on the entire process…that too needs to be included when weighing the pros and cons. 

[sross112]

2 hours ago, Lethaface said:

In our country we had an example of this problem during the covid pandemic. Some samba dance teacher turned into a 'virus expert' and his misinformed ideas (or cognitive dissonance) gained massive traction because he said what some people wanted to hear. I was all for locking the man up until after the pandemic, but our own checks and balances made that difficult. Probably for the better, when looked at what happened in the '30s of the previous century not that far from here.

This (our 'freedom' being used against us by less free nation states) is a weakness of all democratic countries and probably needs to be addressed in this century if we hold democracy dear.

Benjamin Franklin once said: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."

It is also a good thing that most western nations are not true democracies. They are republics that guarantee the rights of their citizens.

"A democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what's for dinner. Liberty is a well armed lamb contesting the vote."

Edited April 3, 2023 by sross112

[Cobetco]

I think you might want to look up the definition of Republic. western nations are democracies.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

https://mwi.usma.edu/what-is-russias-theory-of-victory-in-ukraine/

The Russian regime’s narrative surrounding victory in Ukraine is flexible, opportunistic, and subjective, focusing primarily on the perception of the Russian people that the achieved victory justifies the costs of the war. It is not aimed at the West.

An ultimate manifestation of a Russian victory would lie in a deal agreed upon with the United States that seals Ukraine’s future and secures Russian security interests for the long term. This would give the Russians their desired recognition as a world power, create additional strategic depth, and demonstrate successful resistance to Western economic and military power, ultimately bringing the desired multipolar world closer. The Russian geopolitical narrative, catalyzed by the classic security paradox with the West, will thus prove to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. It will be the dreamed-of situation, whereby Russia can declare victory in Ukraine, but not concerning the “radical” military-political objectives in the confrontation with the West. That struggle is perpetual, continuous, existential, and an integral part of Russian strategic culture.

This seems to greatly overestimate Russia's ability to just keep this war going forever. The Russian economy is slowly melting down. Putin seems to be unwilling to call another round mobilization, not least because it would make the economic meltdown even worse. Putin might be willing to fight this war forever rather than admit error. How many more hundreds of thousands of Russians want to get killed or maimed in the endeavor remains an unanswered question?

[dan/california]

No such thing as enough grenades,