How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting.  Any insights about why he was targeted?  In Russia there's always the possibility of simple criminal activity as well as political enemies.

Steve

Vladlen Tatarskiy is not his real name. He is Maxim Fomin, citizen of Ukraine, lived in Makiivka. His family had strong pro-Russian moods, and Fomin wrote "My father in 1991 told me: Remember, we will still fight with banderovites in future". Nor surprising, if father has choosen such name for own son - Vladlen is a Soviet name from 20th years, acronim from VLADimir LENin. In 2011 Fomin was jailed for armed robbery. He was in correctional facility in Horlivka in 2014, when it was shelled during warfare around the city. He escaped and joined to local detachment of Bezler. Thoough later he moved to "LPR". During the war he developed himself as talented propagandist and soldier-blogger, so quickly gained large popularity. Since 2020 he moved to Moscow. When the war began he enlisted to 11th "Vostok" brigade (Khodakovskiy). 

As told Beleg85, Tatarskiy was active propagandist of volunteer movement, in everyway tried to improve militarty equipment, especially in part of drones and protected radios. He tough criticized MoD and it full incompetence in modern warfare. Also he stood for complete elimination of Ukrainan state as a goal of "SVO". 

Also interesting fact. Today three other odious persons - Girkin, Gubarev (first "peoples governor of Donbas") and Kalashnikov (propagandist) declared about establishing of movement "Club of angry patriotes". Their claimed goal - to withstand to possible coup attempt from the side of pro-western oligarchs, when Russia will be on the edge of military defeat. 

As we know, Girkin and his followers are in the very bad relations with fraction of Kadyrov/Prigozhyn and also with Khodakovskiy. So maybe GUR attempt, but maybe inner showdown. 

Edited April 2, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

24 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

perhaps even Dugina

Action of "Russian Volunteer Corps" (maybe as a task of GUR) - those guys, who some time ago crossed the border and demonstratively seized Russian village. 

Edited April 2, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I am still on the fence on the infantry note.  We have definitely seen a re-emergence (or perhaps just a re confirmation) of the role and value of light fast moving infantry on the UA side, particularly in the defence.  However for the RA we were thinking that “if only the BTGs had more infantry…silly Russians”.  However, in this last phase (phase IV) Russia definitely had the infantry advantage in the areas of its assaults, and it did not lead them to success.

In that (and I am sure it will be famous after the war) “battle for the T” the RA had significant infantry advantage and were still at a loss.  The infantry could not do its primary job of “taking and holding ground via closing with and destroying the enemy” despite numerical advantages.  This leads to an immediate question - if the amount of infantry the Russians threw at Bakhmut was not enough, how much infantry do you really need now?

While the UA with smaller forces have continually been successful despite having less infantry.  Back to Phase I and II, based on what we have seen in Bakhmut I am not convinced that more infantry or that even better combined arms coordination would have made that much of a difference when the main enemy of mass - artillery- still has information dominance.

From what we have seen, more empowered infantry is definitely a lesson learned; however, it is the nature of that empowerment that has been deterministic in this war.

I would argue the critical moment for the infantry shortage was the first ten days of the war. At the very beginning Russian supply trucks were being killed by any and everything down to molotov cocktails and shotguns, wielded by civilians who just refused to give up. As the war got more organized on both sides it has steadily moved towards a point where drone directed precision fire and loitering munitions rule the battlefield.

 

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Bakhmut area. TERRA aerial recon unit targets enemy positions before UKR infantry assault. (ENG subs can be turned on)

Part1. KRAB strikes at two enemy bunkers and observation position. Then two tanks rolled on direct fire. Infantry awaits. 

 

This video being exhibit A. This morning the Ukrainians had drones up, good coms, and artillery batteries with ammo. All the Russians could do was die.

 

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Unfortunatelly, another Krab is down. Given snow, video may be recent. Of course Lancet again.

Unofficially casualties among these vehicles (though not necessarly crews) are pretty high, given how much they work on frontilnes- one analysts with good connections assessed that even 30% or more of original batch may be already out of the line.

 

As crushing as the expense is going to be, some sort point defense for the entire mechanized force just seems to necessary going forward.

[dan/california]

17 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Vladlen Tatarskiy is not his real name. He is Maxim Fomin, citizen of Ukriane, lived in Makiivka. His family had strong pro-Russian moods, and Fomin wrote "My father in 1991 told me: Remember, we will still fight with banderovites in future". Nor surprising, if father has choosen such name for own son - Vladlen is a Soviet name from 20th years, acronim from VLADimir LENin. In 2011 Fomin was jailed for armed robbery. He was in correctional facility in Horlivka in 2014, when it was shelled during warfare around the city. He escaped and joined to local detachment of Bezler. Thoough later he moved to "LPR". During the war he developed himself as talented propagandist and soldier-blogger, so quickly gained large popularity. Since 2020 he moved to Moscow. When the war began he enlisted to 11th "Vostok" brigade (Khodakovskiy). 

As told Beleg85, Tatarskiy was active propagandist of volunteer movement, in everyway tried to improve militarty equipment, especially in part of drones and protected radios. He tough criticized MoD and it full incompetence in modern warfare. Also he stood for complete elimination of Ukrainan state as a goal of "SVO". 

Also interesting fact. Today three other odious persons - Girkin, Gubarev (first "peoples governor of Donbas") and Kalashnikov (propagandist) declared about establishing of movement "Club of angry patriotes". Their claimed goal - to withstand to possible coup attempt from the side of pro-western oligarchs, when Russia will be on the edge of military defeat. 

As we know, Girkin and his followers are in the very bad relations with fraction of Kadyrov/Prigozhyn and also with Khodakovskiy. So maybe GUR attempt, but maybe inner showdown. 

Very helpful background!

[Degsy]

 

A short video of Tatarskii at a Kremlin reception last year.

Here's the approximate translation of what he says, "Hi to everyone from Georges Hall. Here are the names of our regiments that fought and beat different bitches. In short, 200 years ago we took all of Europe and bent them over, and this time it will be the same again, we’ve got everything going for us - not just some abstract allied forces but a Russia with nuclear weapons, with an army, with the mobilisation, that’s going to happen so that we can arm ourselves.  Anyway we're going to give it a go, because we won't  get a second chance. I congratulate everyone who’s made it this far.  
 
We will conquer  everyone,  we will kill everyone, we will steal everything we need and everything will be the way we like it.   Go with God."

 

 

[Beleg85]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Also interesting fact. Today three other odious persons - Girkin, Gubarev (first "peoples governor of Donbas") and Kalashnikov (propagandist) declared about establishing of movement "Club of angry patriotes". Their claimed goal - to withstand to possible coup attempt from the side of pro-western oligarchs, when Russia will be on the edge of military defeat. 

As we know, Girkin and his followers are in the very bad relations with fraction of Kadyrov/Prigozhyn and also with Khodakovskiy. So maybe GUR attempt, but maybe inner showdown. 

Yes, quite important development on itself that we didn't discussed here previously. After second thought, it may be connected to Tatarsky's death- as always, roshades on nationalistic spectrum in Russia are accompanied by violence and threats. So this could as well be Kremlin speaking; would much more sense now than in case of Dugina.

 

16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Action of "Russian Volunteer Corps" (maybe as a task of GUR) - those guys, who some time ago crossed the border and demonstratively seized Russian village. 

Still a guess (albeit possible ofc.), unless some really solid proofs in Ukrainian media came out about it. There was also this hithero unknown body called National Republican Army supposedly involved.

Btw. RVC lately started new project, training something called "Polish Volunteer Corps" that unlike other volunteer formations, which have silent governmental support, gave authorities here some very uneasy itchy vibes. Generally everything sorrounding this Russian formation has some fishy stink around, including clearly white suprematists views of its core members.

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Degsy said:

 

A short video of Tatarskii at a Kremlin reception last year.

Here's the approximate translation of what he says, "Hi to everyone from Georges Hall. Here are the names of our regiments that fought and beat different bitches. In short, 200 years ago we took all of Europe and bent them over, and this time it will be the same again, we’ve got everything going for us - not just some abstract allied forces but a Russia with nuclear weapons, with an army, with the mobilisation, that’s going to happen so that we can arm ourselves.  Anyway we're going to give it a go, because we won't  get a second chance. I congratulate everyone who’s made it this far.  
 
We will conquer  everyone,  we will kill everyone, we will steal everything we need and everything will be the way we like it.   Go with God."

 

 

Flippin' psychopath.  A country where all the sane people fled or are afraid to speak out and all that's left are the lunatics doing the talking.

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

Yes, quite important development on itself that we didn't discussed here previously. After second thought, it may be connected to Tatarsky's death- as always, roshades on nationalistic spectrum in Russia are accompanied by violence and threats. So this could as well be Kremlin speaking; would much more sense now than in case of Dugina.

 

Still a guess (albeit possible ofc.), unless some really solid proofs in Ukrainian media came out about it. There was also this hithero unknown body called National Republican Army supposedly involved.

Btw. RVC lately started new project, training something called "Polish Volunteer Corps" that unlike other volunteer formations, which have silent governmental support, gave authorities here some very uneasy itchy vibes. Generally everything sorrounding this Russian formation has some fishy stink around, including clearly white suprematists views of its core members.

I saw this last night on Denys Davydov daily YT video.  I kept thinking that they are playing a very dangerous game.  And for Putin it's probably also a good look at what he might face internally if he did choose to end the war.  Well, sow the wind.....

[Kinophile]

https://kyivindependent.com/i-work-then-i-cry-exhausted-medics-near-bakhmut-fight-for-every-life/

Within it notes -  

Quote

30-45 wounded each day

(This was mid-late March). 

This seems to be a brigade level triage center. With the forces left within the city at the time the 30-45 figure matches up with OS estimates for the same time period of c100-150 wounded a day. 

Using our unreliable old friend,  3:1, WIA:KIA,  UKR permanent losses were possibly about 30-50 (on the high end).

For 1 week mid March,  that suggests 420-210-350.

Average that across 4 weeks of March gives possible estimate 840- 1400 permanent UKR losses.

Even if we grossly round up to highest values (1000-2000)  that still implies a very favourable ratio for Ukraine. 

Of course,  these are not numbers, but real people with families and now-destroyed dreams, memories and hopes.  My heart goes out to them all. 

Please take apart my numbers, I welcome it. 

Edited April 2, 2023 by Kinophile

[Beleg85]

7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I saw this last night on Denys Davydov daily YT video.  I kept thinking that they are playing a very dangerous game.  And for Putin it's probably also a good look at what he might face internally if he did choose to end the war.  Well, sow the wind.....

It's highly doubtful if they indeed play this dangerous game, they officially announce it on YT. Perhaps @Grigb will have more info, but from what can be read it looks like girkinoids may try to rally other nationalists under banners that Kremlin can somewhat controll. Let's not forget- he is most probably somebody's asset in these circles. Neutralizing or controlling negative sentiments there beforehand is in vital interest of FSB.

[Haiduk]

Snow is melting, dirt and mud everywhere in the trench. The medic arrived to evacuate heavy wounded soldier, but knew that unit have two heavy wounded.

 

[Haiduk]

32 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

https://kyivindependent.com/i-work-then-i-cry-exhausted-medics-near-bakhmut-fight-for-every-life/

Within it notes -  

 

It's more interesting local bigade's  statistic:

About 90 percent of all casualties come from shrapnel injuries, according to 42-year-old combat medic Dmytro. He estimated that another four to five percent are from bullet wounds, and there are “a lot” of concussion cases as well.

The war of artillery... 

[Grossman]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Vladlen Tatarskiy is not his real name. He is Maxim Fomin, citizen of Ukraine, lived in Makiivka. His family had strong pro-Russian moods, and Fomin wrote "My father in 1991 told me: Remember, we will still fight with banderovites in future". Nor surprising, if father has choosen such name for own son - Vladlen is a Soviet name from 20th years, acronim from VLADimir LENin. In 2011 Fomin was jailed for armed robbery. He was in correctional facility in Horlivka in 2014, when it was shelled during warfare around the city. He escaped and joined to local detachment of Bezler. Thoough later he moved to "LPR". During the war he developed himself as talented propagandist and soldier-blogger, so quickly gained large popularity. Since 2020 he moved to Moscow. When the war began he enlisted to 11th "Vostok" brigade (Khodakovskiy). 

As told Beleg85, Tatarskiy was active propagandist of volunteer movement, in everyway tried to improve militarty equipment, especially in part of drones and protected radios. He tough criticized MoD and it full incompetence in modern warfare. Also he stood for complete elimination of Ukrainan state as a goal of "SVO". 

Also interesting fact. Today three other odious persons - Girkin, Gubarev (first "peoples governor of Donbas") and Kalashnikov (propagandist) declared about establishing of movement "Club of angry patriotes". Their claimed goal - to withstand to possible coup attempt from the side of pro-western oligarchs, when Russia will be on the edge of military defeat. 

As we know, Girkin and his followers are in the very bad relations with fraction of Kadyrov/Prigozhyn and also with Khodakovskiy. So maybe GUR attempt, but maybe inner showdown. 

"The blogger, who frequently travelled with Russian troops on the frontlines, emerged as one of the loudest critics of Russia’s defence ministry over the last year for its inability to achieve military gains in Ukraine.

In one instance he called for a tribunal for the Russian military leadership, describing Moscow’s top officers as “untrained idiots”. ( UK Guardian)

The dwarf Putin has to be the prime suspect. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

https://kyivindependent.com/i-work-then-i-cry-exhausted-medics-near-bakhmut-fight-for-every-life/

Within it notes -  

(This was mid-late March). 

This seems to be a brigade level triage center. With the forces left within the city at the time the 30-45 figure matches up with OS estimates for the same time period of c100-150 wounded a day. 

Using our unreliable old friend,  3:1, WIA:KIA,  UKR permanent losses were possibly about 30-50 (on the high end).

For 1 week mid March,  that suggests 420-210-350.

Average that across 4 weeks of March gives possible estimate 840- 1400 permanent UKR losses.

Even if we grossly round up to highest values (1000-2000)  that still implies a very favourable ratio for Ukraine. 

Of course,  these are not numbers, but real people with families and now-destroyed dreams, memories and hopes.  My heart goes out to them all. 

Please take apart my numbers, I welcome it. 

More recent reporting seems to indicate that Ukraine's ratio is more like 8:1 than it is 3:1.  Haiduk mentioned a lot of concussion injuries, so that could be enlarging the wounded statistic.

If we split the difference and say 6:1 this indicates about 500-750 KIA.  That's still a very large number.  Basically 2 whole battalions' worth of dead.

Steve

[kevinkin]

More on magnetic detection:

https://www.jpost.com/archaeology/article-736139

 

[Anonymous_Jonze]

3 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Yeah, dimwits from very rural Oregon counties want to leave evil liberal Oregon and go to Idaho.  YES PLEASE!  Your counties take in WAY more state money than you pay in taxes.  So take your stupid a--es to Idaho and let them pay to keep your roads open & maintained & your power on & all your medicaid expenses and law enforcement.  The evil liberals thank you for reducing their tax burden .  I just did my taxes and owe the state an extra $2800, which I suppose would be less if I wasn't subsidizing these folks.

Beleg85 video above was great.  I read what it was first and don't understand ukrainian and still burst out laughing when he was stuffing his mouth w sushi.  Great one.

Meanwhile, more mud.  Maybe this is OK for now.  I bet UKR would like more time to prepare for the spring offensives and this mud will make RU attacks that much more difficult. 

Ah yes, the state of "Jefferson" I always chuckle seeing the signs when I drive down the 5.

[danfrodo]

22 minutes ago, Anonymous_Jonze said:

Ah yes, the state of "Jefferson" I always chuckle seeing the signs when I drive down the 5.

sorry for forum distraction, but this is such a hoot.  Joining Idaho at least makes some sense.  Making their own state means they would have basically zero state resources, because tiny, poor population.  They'd be proclaiming how they are free and independent and self reliant and be begging the feds for handouts via other people's tax dollars-- Using their two senators, of course, in our deeply undemocratic system.

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

More recent reporting seems to indicate that Ukraine's ratio is more like 8:1 than it is 3:1.  Haiduk mentioned a lot of concussion injuries, so that could be enlarging the wounded statistic.

If we split the difference and say 6:1 this indicates about 500-750 KIA.  That's still a very large number.  Basically 2 whole battalions' worth of dead.

Steve

Yup, but comparison to Russian losses its an excellent trade,  if we think without emotion. 

[danfrodo]

Some interesting bits here today.  I don't think I've seen the video of T80BV getting blasted here before.  Some speculation on whether RU military or other Prigozhin haters are purposefully working to make sure his outfit gets smashed at Bakhmut.  Also it sounds like the new head of the UN Sec Council is classic bats--t crazy RU official.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/2/2161636/-Ukraine-Update-Is-the-Russian-military-using-Bakhmut-to-destroy-Wagner-mercenaries

 

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

I would argue the critical moment for the infantry shortage was the first ten days of the war. At the very beginning Russian supply trucks were being killed by any and everything down to molotov cocktails and shotguns, wielded by civilians who just refused to give up. As the war got more organized on both sides it has steadily moved towards a point where drone directed precision fire and loitering munitions rule the battlefield.

Well then like a lot of other times, those ten days were when history was hanging in the balance.  I am still not sure more infantry would have made a difference.  Unless we are talking 1-2 million but the Russian military was not setup for a campaign of those sizes even back before when it lost 10k vehicles.

They may have created security corridors for molotovs and shotguns but most reports show that artillery did  most of the killing with next-gen ATGMs likely coming in next. Then other tanks/AFVs with direct fire. The Russian Air Force was blunted a few days in by a much smaller force and hella denial effort.  So unless infantry could catch artillery, establish air superiority or turn off the UA ISR, again I am not sure how more of them would yield success.

Regardless, we are where we are and I do not see “more infantry” actually solving much for Russia at this point.  Of course at the rate they are burning through vehicles and platforms it might be all the RA has left.

[The_Capt]

15 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Yup, but comparison to Russian losses its an excellent trade,  if we think without emotion. 

From experience, it is the best way to do these things.  Plenty of time for emotion when it is all over.

[Kinophile]

Highly charged incident. 

I touched on this subject myself many pages ago,  about how/if the UOC or similar will affect the peace,  using the Catholic Church in Ireland,, after our civil war, as a parallel example. 

There does seem to be a strong social push against the Moscow backed church, but I'm not there. 

Any of our UKR friends able to elaborate? Or is it a too-tricky subject just now? 

 

 

[Gpig]

22 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Some interesting bits here today.  I don't think I've seen the video of T80BV getting blasted here before.  Some speculation on whether RU military or other Prigozhin haters are purposefully working to make sure his outfit gets smashed at Bakhmut.  Also it sounds like the new head of the UN Sec Council is classic bats--t crazy RU official.

I think you can see all three crewmembers survived that T80 getting nuked. (Javelin?)

[dan/california]

23 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Some interesting bits here today.  I don't think I've seen the video of T80BV getting blasted here before.  Some speculation on whether RU military or other Prigozhin haters are purposefully working to make sure his outfit gets smashed at Bakhmut.  Also it sounds like the new head of the UN Sec Council is classic bats--t crazy RU official.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/2/2161636/-Ukraine-Update-Is-the-Russian-military-using-Bakhmut-to-destroy-Wagner-mercenaries

 

From the Kos article

Quote

Their military is a joke. And while I bet he’s talking about nuclear weapons, because they’re obsessed with theirs as a point of national pride, at this point no one should assume they’d even hit the right continent (even if they somehow managed to clear their launch tubes). 

I swear I didn't write this. Although I think he is stealing from the thread.

[Holien]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65157555

Russia has friends in the Middle East? 

Not sure it will help them....