How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Bakhmut area. TERRA aerial recon unit targets enemy positions before UKR infantry assault. (ENG subs can be turned on)

Part1. KRAB strikes at two enemy bunkers and observation position. Then two tanks rolled on direct fire. Infantry awaits. 

 

Edited April 2, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

18 hours ago, dan/california said:

3) They seem to be absorbing many of the lessons the board has discussed at length. Don't bleep up your supply lines, do have enough infantry, no such thing as too many drones, and so on.

I am still on the fence on the infantry note.  We have definitely seen a re-emergence (or perhaps just a re confirmation) of the role and value of light fast moving infantry on the UA side, particularly in the defence.  However for the RA we were thinking that “if only the BTGs had more infantry…silly Russians”.  However, in this last phase (phase IV) Russia definitely had the infantry advantage in the areas of its assaults, and it did not lead them to success.

In that (and I am sure it will be famous after the war) “battle for the T” the RA had significant infantry advantage and were still at a loss.  The infantry could not do its primary job of “taking and holding ground via closing with and destroying the enemy” despite numerical advantages.  This leads to an immediate question - if the amount of infantry the Russians threw at Bakhmut was not enough, how much infantry do you really need now?

While the UA with smaller forces have continually been successful despite having less infantry.  Back to Phase I and II, based on what we have seen in Bakhmut I am not convinced that more infantry or that even better combined arms coordination would have made that much of a difference when the main enemy of mass - artillery- still has information dominance.

From what we have seen, more empowered infantry is definitely a lesson learned; however, it is the nature of that empowerment that has been deterministic in this war.

Edited April 2, 2023 by The_Capt

[The_Capt]

We aren’t the only ones wondering “whither goest Crimea”

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ukrainian-official-offers-plan-for-a-crimea-without-russia-1.6339284

[mosuri]

15 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Btw. this odd lack of care about Finlad/Sweden is showing perfectly how hollow are some "realistic" arguments about NATO supposedly expanding and creating danger for Russia.  Several angry Baltic fishermen can now effectively cut out Kaliningrad and Petersburg from ocean. Russian reaction-  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ .

Regarding that, I hope there is a clear plan -- and very soon the means-- in the works for placing Petrograd under naval blockade from both shores of Gulf of Finland. You know, just in case.

[Haiduk]

Russian propagandist and blogger Sladkov, answering on own followers question "How much of ammo we need to ground Maryinka completely to capture it at last?" told some interestimng facts.

He said that only for capturing of fur farm (likley near small village Pobeda south from Maryinka) we wasted 1480 artillery shells and 6 loitering munitions. And what? We have taken it by assault [according to Russian sources it were battalion "Akhmat-West" of Kadyrov's army attached to Southern military district and volunteer battalion BARS-11), but only to give it back since some time, because we can't satnd against UKR artillery. It more accurate and we lose them in counter-battery fire. We slowly avdance in Maryinka, slowly because of when we seize some enemy strongpoint we can't hold it long time, lose it and all starts again. 

 

Edited April 2, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

Unfortunatelly, another Krab is down. Given snow, video may be recent. Of course Lancet again.

Unofficially casualties among these vehicles (though not necessarly crews) are pretty high, given how much they work on frontilnes- one analysts with good connections assessed that even 30% or more of original batch may be already out of the line.

 

[kevinkin]

A long feel good story that confirms a lot:

https://coffeeordie.com/lessons-russia-ukraine/

Good mix of human interest the military themes. 

 

[Haiduk]

Bakhmut now

It's fuc...g hell now! Grads, Uragans, arty, they fire with all what they have. There are attempts of moth...rs aviation working.

Well, we pill up them too, pill up [means "heavy return fire"].   

Edited April 2, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

This Krab must send its regards from afterlife.... Vladem Tatarsky reportedly down.

 

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Fernando said:

Most of that people (in fact most of human beigns) suffers "cognitive dissonance".

It happens everywhere everytime. Here in Catalonia I have experienced it in an extraordinary way with the Catalan independence movement, which has seemed to live continuously in cognitive dissonance. It is not a rare phenomenon but a very common one.

For sure it is a widespread problem.  Very often it is seen in individuals about things that are specific to them, but of course it scales up to shared delusions.  Sometimes very large movements are created based on cognitive dissonance reasoning. 

Supporters of Brexit are very similar to the Catalan independence movement in many ways.  Emotionally driven, hostile to rationale discussion, and enhanced by Russian manipulation to further Russian interests.  We have similar separatist movements like this in the United States, including a long running one in California and a new one in Oregon.  I live next to Quebec and that has quieted down for now.  All of these movements present themselves as the perfect solution to all problems and absolutely refuse to rationally discuss the downsides because it conflicts with the simplistic arguments in favor of separating.

There's tons of examples we can point to, however it seems Russia has their entire national identity tied up in a belief structure that is completely at odds with reality.  The nationwide scale and uniformity of the psychosis makes it different than the Catalan or Brexit independence movements, for example.  It makes it different than fascist minded movements in democratic countries.  In fact, I am not sure there is any other nation on Earth right now that has this problem to the same degree as Russia.  Probably North Korea.  The people in other autocratic nations, like Cuba and China, seem to be less convinced of their greatness.

Whatever the case is, the problem we have right now is that Russians are largely following a psychotic vision instead of reason.  Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan suffered the same disease and the cure was to militarily occupy them until the psychosis was broken.  There won't be such an opportunity after this war ends.  Russia will have the same chance at becoming a better nation as Germany did after WW1.  We know how that ended.

Steve

[akd]

 

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting.  Any insights about why he was targeted?  In Russia there's always the possibility of simple criminal activity as well as political enemies.

Steve

[Beleg85]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting.  Any insights about why he was targeted?  In Russia there's always the possibility of simple criminal activity as well as political enemies.

Steve

Rumours are that cafe could be connected to Prigozhin, who has businessess in St.Peterburg- but it also could be coincidence, he could simply host him. Early hypothesis: some statuette was given to blogger with explosive material inside.

Very interesting development, Tatarsky was hardcore separatists, not necessarly favourable from Kremlin perspective.

[akd]

RIA Novosti confirms Tatarsky’s death:

 

[Holien]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Supporters of Brexit are very similar to the Catalan independence movement in many ways.  Emotionally driven, hostile to rationale discussion, and enhanced by Russian manipulation to further Russian interests.

Funny I had the same thoughts but wasn't going to mention it and also a "stolen" election crossed my mind too... 

Only way folk can deal with it come up with a reason to keep their beliefs intact.

We had the travesty of our current home secretary blaming everything bar Brexit for the delays at Dover due to passport checks that are now required because we have taken back control...

Imagine not having a free press to try and break the lies and you can understand why Russians just don't get it....

[Beleg85]

Reportedly picture from just before the explosion. A pitty, looks like nice hipster venue. If one omits guns, bazookas and skulls, I mean...

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1642560218604228610/photo/1

Oh and this drone looks like aureola. How appropriate.

Edited April 2, 2023 by Beleg85

[Holien]

6 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

some statuette

Seemed rather a large explosion for a small hand held statue? Live by the sword....

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Holien said:

Seemed rather a large explosion for a small hand held statue? Live by the sword....

Mom always told me to not play with C4 in an enclosed space, probably for this very reason

The graphic video of the interior doesn't show a lot of damage even where the blast originated.  Some marks on the wall seem to indicate the device was built to fragment.  I am no explosives expert, but I'm pretty sure a couple pounds of explosives in a good container would blow out the windows and cause this sort of destruction.

Steve

[Beleg85]

6 minutes ago, Holien said:

Seemed rather a large explosion for a small hand held statue? Live by the sword....

There is uncensored video below by Necromancer, people were wounded but it doesn't look like a lot of blood. Charge must have been relatively small. Attendants posted it directly after exposion.

Literally streaming one's own death. Strange times.

Edited April 2, 2023 by Beleg85

[danfrodo]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

e have similar separatist movements like this in the United States, including a long running one in California and a new one in Oregon.

Yeah, dimwits from very rural Oregon counties want to leave evil liberal Oregon and go to Idaho.  YES PLEASE!  Your counties take in WAY more state money than you pay in taxes.  So take your stupid a--es to Idaho and let them pay to keep your roads open & maintained & your power on & all your medicaid expenses and law enforcement.  The evil liberals thank you for reducing their tax burden .  I just did my taxes and owe the state an extra $2800, which I suppose would be less if I wasn't subsidizing these folks.

Beleg85 video above was great.  I read what it was first and don't understand ukrainian and still burst out laughing when he was stuffing his mouth w sushi.  Great one.

Meanwhile, more mud.  Maybe this is OK for now.  I bet UKR would like more time to prepare for the spring offensives and this mud will make RU attacks that much more difficult. 

[Beleg85]

And possible explosive statue given to him:

Killed by something resembling garden gnome. That almost beats Motorola's fate.

[Holien]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Mom always told me to not play with C4 in an enclosed space

Well that explains a lot, about your family life and formative years....

 

[Halmbarte]

40 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting.  Any insights about why he was targeted?  In Russia there's always the possibility of simple criminal activity as well as political enemies.

Steve

When you're running a criminal government crime & politics become inextricable. 

H

[billbindc]

22 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

There is uncensored video below by Necromancer, people were wounded but it doesn't look like a lot of blood. Charge must have been relatively small. Attendants posted it directly after exposion.

Literally streaming one's own death. Strange times.

Pretty clearly a blunt message from somebody to the mail bloggers. There’s virtually zero reasons Ukraine would bother with someone like this.

[Beleg85]

9 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Pretty clearly a blunt message from somebody to the mail bloggers. There’s virtually zero reasons Ukraine would bother with someone like this.

I am not so sure about this one. UA services demonstrated previously they can have surprisingly long hands (Crimean Bridge, various sabotages, perhaps even Dugina), and this guy was clearly one of smarter assets on separatists side- in a way, far more valuable than for example Girkin. He organized drones, combat software and fundraised other projects. Rare character on muscovite side of this war.

Of course could have been some Russian job as well, too many unknowns so difficult to say for now. After Stemousov death I am pretty sure Kremlin did not stop its pre-invasion practice of removing "difficult" actors when they stop being useful.

Edited April 2, 2023 by Beleg85