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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russians continue to try and counter the narrative that they are the Nazis by, uhm, acting like Nazis :)  Faked video supposedly showing Ukrainian soldiers terrorizing a mother and small child.  Plenty of red flags caused OSINT folks to dig deeper and they managed to geolocate the video to 30km behind the lines in Russian held Donbas:

 

 

Someone is going to claim it was UA SOF because they could operate that deep.  No western trained SOF is going to blow cover 30 km behind enemy lines to scare a couple civilians.

”The Statue of Liberty is kaput!”

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5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

It was a trick the Taliban taught us back in the day.

Seem to recall reading about German 1st parachute division in Ortona teaching us that trick back in the day.

the victims of that tactic usually complained how boobytrapping buildings were an outrageous act, as if the tactic wasn’t considered fighting fair or some such. But it seems like a relatively common tactic. 

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4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Both are under a lot of stress/strain to get HE rounds to the front where they are needed.  Every smoke shell that is speculatively moved to a location and stored in case there's a good use for it is taking the place of an HE round that will be used.

Reminds me of a recent video where the guys unloading the mortar shells don't know what the smoke rounds are and/or aren't happy to see them. In the video there seems to be quite a pile of them (I assume the ones with the red stripe; the video should start at the right timestamp)

It is more long form and it has very few explosions, but I found the whole video interesting as a portrait of the nitty-gritty of the day-to-day business of the war in Ukraine.

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3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Someone is going to claim it was UA SOF because they could operate that deep.

Maybe, but even the Russian channels are acknowledging it's a fake.  As multiple people pointed out, the Russian reaction to this is not "what does it say about us if we have to lie about why we're fighting this war?" but instead is "we need to fake things better".  Kinda like the mobilized guys complaining about not being trained instead of complaining that their lives are being deliberately thrown away by their own government.

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

No western trained SOF is going to blow cover 30 km behind enemy lines to scare a couple civilians.

”The Statue of Liberty is kaput!”

The funny thing is I don't speak either Ukrainian or Russian and I could tell the "soldier" speaking to the woman was putting on an act.  I've seen enough Nicholas Cage and Kevin Costner films to know bad acting when I hear it :)

Steve

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4 hours ago, ftukfgufyrdy said:

Yeah I just chatted with my friend about this and told him about using breaching teams in CMBS. He's a royal engineer commando and told me that his unit had just finished a recent training where they rigged a building to blow when the enemy comes in to occupy it. 

Opposite but similar from Australian engineers. One of my brothers friends said he lost count of how many times he "died" practicing disarming buildings rigged in various way. He said it was a little dispiriting.

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It's been asked that we don't link the Ukrainian Volunteer blog until He/they are better verified. 

So no direct link.

Buuut.....

This is more a curiousity post about something they spoke of. It isn't about weather they themselves are who they say they are,  but about whether what they note is accurate and/or realistic. 

To quote:

Quote

We got closer to —- than ever, mainly just watching for movements through some large clearings and a few roads. It was really a follow-up to a long-term aerial surveillance effort to create a database of movements and positions, and try to predict future plans. 

A lot of it is vehicle tracks and forward supply caches. The drones with —- band radars in a depressed angle can see objects several km away, and tracks are obvious to visual surveillance drones (manmade patterns are very visible and distinguishable from above). Put all of it together, and you can create a database that can be used to make future predictions. The drones can also GPS pin stuff, which can be acted on immediately, or added to the database to await additional info. Kinetic actions there being to lay down mines, booby traps, and position assault forces in flanking positions.

During periods where leaf coverage is reduced, this works very well. During lush periods, the time-lapse can show if anything moved out of trees by their tracks, even if they try to exit over their entry tracks. The track geometry difference is obvious. Of course, —- band with proper signal processing and backscatter energy analysis can detect large object under a tree canopy, but I am not up-to-speed on the level of tech used here.

Theoretically, with some “machine learning” a (or other) drones can initiate a home-base signal upon pattern recognition. I don’t know if that is in use or in development here. None of my business. 

Thoughts? What band radar are they talking about? 

Edited by Kinophile
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35 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

It's been asked that we don't link the Ukrainian Volunteer blog until He/they are better verified. 

So no direct link.

Buuut.....

This is more a curiousity post about something they spoke of. It isn't about weather they themselves are who they say they are,  but about whether what they note is accurate and/or realistic. 

To quote:

Thoughts? What band radar are they talking about? 

It's realistic and there's plenty of research out there you can find on the intertoobs. It's stretching the limits of absurdity to be reading a technical discussion about it from some Vietnam era Sgt Slaughter idly talking about it from a muddy trench behind Bakhmut though.

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2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

It's realistic and there's plenty of research out there you can find on the intertoobs. It's stretching the limits of absurdity to be reading a technical discussion about it from some Vietnam era Sgt Slaughter idly talking about it from a muddy trench behind Bakhmut though.

I was always a Sgt Rock man, myself.  But they have a lot in common.  They both seem to be fiction, on the level of comic book fiction.

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Probably UHF, aka ground penetrating radar (which also penetrates foliage). You'd probably want a second source to confirm the target, since GPR will only tell you "there's something there". The wavelength is too long to figure out what 'it' is just from the radar return.

Edited by JonS
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1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

It's been asked that we don't link the Ukrainian Volunteer blog until He/they are better verified. 

So no direct link.

Buuut.....

This is more a curiousity post about something they spoke of. It isn't about weather they themselves are who they say they are,  but about whether what they note is accurate and/or realistic. 

To quote:

Thoughts? What band radar are they talking about? 

Any number of military FLIR and SAR type systems.  What is weird about this thing is that is sounds a lot like it was written by ChatGPT or somesuch.  A lot of technical terms and buzzwords (Kinetic Action) being used out of context or in an odd context.

 

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19 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

What is weird about this thing is that is sounds a lot like it was written by ChatGPT or somesuch.  A lot of technical terms and buzzwords (Kinetic Action) being used out of context or in an odd context.

 

I was amused by the couple of instances of [technical discussion] immediately followed by [but aw shucks, I'm just a grunt. What would I know.]

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4 minutes ago, JonS said:

I was amused by the couple of instances of [technical discussion] immediately followed by [but aw shucks, I'm just a grunt. What would I know.]

"There I was, in the Congo....working out the declination, signal processing and backscatter energy analysis required for the band radar UAV op....as I considered what would be the best movies to have on hand for a winter deployment. Btw, these boots might work for you but they're hell on this old Nam Marine recon sniper's feet." 

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1 hour ago, billbindc said:

"There I was, in the Congo....working out the declination, signal processing and backscatter energy analysis required for the band radar UAV op....as I considered what would be the best movies to have on hand for a winter deployment. Btw, these boots might work for you but they're hell on this old Nam Marine recon sniper's feet." 

Deserves a like and a shout out.  Nicely played 😆

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18 hours ago, Ales Dvorak said:

Tanks sent in Ukraine won't change anything said croatian admiral Davor Domazet -Lošo in his 2 hours interview.  ( Problem - number of tanks and different systems )

( I can send link, but interview is in Croatian language.)

Please send a link.

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4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

It's been asked that we don't link the Ukrainian Volunteer blog until He/they are better verified. 

So no direct link.

Buuut.....

This is more a curiousity post about something they spoke of. It isn't about weather they themselves are who they say they are,  but about whether what they note is accurate and/or realistic. 

To quote:

Thoughts? What band radar are they talking about? 

FYI. The guy that maintains that blog and says he his has corresponded with the Ukrainian Volunteer for a few years - according to the blog - is this writer on defense topics:

https://news.usni.org/author/kmizokami
https://www.popularmechanics.com/author/14085/kyle-mizokami/
@KyleMizokami


 

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3 hours ago, billbindc said:

It's realistic and there's plenty of research out there you can find on the intertoobs. It's stretching the limits of absurdity to be reading a technical discussion about it from some Vietnam era Sgt Slaughter idly talking about it from a muddy trench behind Bakhmut though.

For sure it is technically possible as there are some experiments underway at present.  Not sure how far along they are.  My guess is the robustness of the power supply is the limiting factor for the near term.  Like the German experiments with IR devices at the end of WW2.  Sure, it worked, but how practical was it to have a 35 pound device that only had a couple of minutes of usage?

As for the source of this information, I'm with Billbindc all the way here.  Just not credible.

Steve

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3 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Interested in hearing more details about this event.

As @Beleg85, advised me many times we should use our discretion when reading Visegrád 24. 🙂

This is probably another example of something unrelated to the war.  Criminal Gang A coming into conflict with Criminal Gang B.  Without context it doesn't mean much other than Chechnya is not a happy, peaceful, stable place.  Nothing new.  If it is something new, that would be interesting indeed ;)

Steve

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