How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Seedorf81]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

(..)

Again, this is speaking from my own personal experiences with actual Human beings that I interact with. 

Steve

In a usually grim and sometimes horrible thread, a very funny line, I think.

Don't know if this was intended, but it sure confirms that Steve is at least a little bit of an alien .  

[Seedorf81]

According to Der Spiegel 18 Leopard 2s, 40 Marder(s) and 2 Bergepanzer have arrived in Ukraine.

Maybe the Ukrainians were waiting for those for the start of a new offensive?

(O, also three Leopards from Portugal arrived.)

Edited March 27, 2023 by Seedorf81
addition

[danfrodo]

7 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

According to Der Spiegel 18 Leopard 2s, 40 Marder(s) and 2 Bergepanzer have arrived in Ukraine.

Maybe the Ukrainians were waiting for those for the start of a new offensive?

(O, also three Leopards from Portugal arrived.)

I think right now waiting for mud to end, but maybe also waiting for the new units to be ready

 

[Tux]

Everyone seems very focused on where western armour will make its first appearance, perhaps even the Russians (it’s been suggested here that they might even be reserving their major stocks of AT weapons for when such units show themselves, keen to publish videos of burning Leopards and Challengers to boost Russian morale).  In this environment I wonder what games the UA might play:  could western armour be massed in a diversionary location for instance, before the main offensive is launched with old (but still clearly dangerous) Ukrainian kit somewhere where the AT-weapon-density remains low?  Perhaps the main offensive gets launched suddenly when the western-equipped units are still only ‘just starting to arrive’?

The next 2-3 months are going to be interesting.

Edited March 27, 2023 by Tux
Too many instances.

[chrisl]

8 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Drone Drop Of The Day.

 

 

Was that a drone crew they were dropping on?  The lower rightmost guy looked like he had a blackout visor on for being able to watch a display.

[chrisl]

18 minutes ago, Tux said:

Everyone seems very focused on where western armour will make its first appearance, perhaps even the Russians (it’s been suggested here that they might even be reserving their major stocks of AT weapons for when such units show themselves, keen to publish videos of burning Leopards and Challengers to boost Russian morale).  In this environment I wonder what games the UA might play:  could western armour be massed in a diversionary location for instance, before the main offensive is launched with old (but still clearly dangerous) Ukrainian kit somewhere where the AT-weapon-density remains low?  Perhaps the main offensive gets launched suddenly when the western-equipped units are still only ‘just starting to arrive’?

The next 2-3 months are going to be interesting.

I think the western armor remains a distraction.  The shaping is already going on with the destruction of RA high value targets, particularly things like AD/CB radar and EW equipment.  They're slowly blinding the RA further and making sure that UA remote operators will have free operating areas.

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, chrisl said:

I think the western armor remains a distraction.  The shaping is already going on with the destruction of RA high value targets, particularly things like AD/CB radar and EW equipment.  They're slowly blinding the RA further and making sure that UA remote operators will have free operating areas.

Agreed it is a very carefully managed distraction.  Get the attention and focus on something bright and shiny instead of what really matters.  The damage Ukraine and the West has done to Russia is already significant in that respect.  Having the equipment show up in battle is just icing on the cake.

Steve

[danfrodo]

12 minutes ago, chrisl said:

I think the western armor remains a distraction.  The shaping is already going on with the destruction of RA high value targets, particularly things like AD/CB radar and EW equipment.  They're slowly blinding the RA further and making sure that UA remote operators will have free operating areas.

Yeah, I concur.  I am picturing UKR 'unintentionally' having leaks about locations of units w western MBTs & AFVs.  This would signal to RU where the new offensive is coming while it's all just a show.  Hopefully RU would bite on this trick and move their reserves away from the real offensive.

And some talk of logistics here today, detailing why we won't see abrams in combat anytime soon.   

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/27/2160465/-Ukraine-Update-Why-sending-31-M1-Abrams-tanks-is-harder-than-just-sending-31-tanks

It seems we might see some western IFVs in May/June, but it sounds like that MBTs are probably later in summer or autumn.  While logistics will decide the outcome, the quality of soldiers & weapons will decide how far & how fast UKR can push and at what cost.  Still gotta dig folks outta trenches.  Still gotta take villages and overrun roadblocks.

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Seedorf81 said:

According to Der Spiegel 18 Leopard 2s, 40 Marder(s) and 2 Bergepanzer have arrived in Ukraine.

...

I have to say that I'm a bit disappointed by this thread, and by thread I mean YOU.

I learned about this on a main media website first, then on the fricking TV and only after that, here. In the days of yore, I would have read about the delivery date here a week ago.

Edited March 27, 2023 by poesel

[NamEndedAllen]

4 hours ago, billbindc said:

Make no mistake...Trump will end support for Ukraine and NATO the minute returns to the White House...God forbid.

This what Putin is counting on. Really, his only hope for redemption is being re-embraced by a newly elected president Trump: Sanctions lifted immediately, resumed threats to leave NATO, verbal attacks on all USA allies as before, and leaning towards foreign dictators (again). With a Republican House of Representatives bent on spending cuts, a return to threatening to withhold Ukraine military support unless it agrees to various demands is probable. Demands many here would find appalling. At which point Putin and Xi announce their “Peace Plan”, with loud Trump endorsement. Europe in disarray not just over the war, but much more fundamental, over what they feared four years earlier. USA no longer a reliable partner, perhaps in anything. Not trustworthy. The end of the Atlantic Alliance.

This isn’t a prediction! It’s a possible scenario with more than a 50/50 probability because it is based in many aspects on past behavior. So, all the more reason to underscore the critical need for providing Ukraine with *everything* it needs to win convincingly on the battlefield this year. To deliver such a major Russian battlefield defeat that the Russian military in Ukraine is finished. And no one can doubt the fact. Because the only reasonable guarantee of ending the threat of future Russian attacks is full NATO membership. And the only way all NATO members might consider this is the convincing, devastating Russian defeat. Gambling *anything* about NATO until after 2024 is gambling Ukraine’s lives and future.

[Seedorf81]

59 minutes ago, poesel said:

I have to say that I'm a bit disappointed by this thread, and by thread I mean YOU.

I learned about this on a main media website first, then on the fricking TV and only after that, here. In the days of yore, I would have read about the delivery date here a week ago.

I did not claim it to be "breaking news" or "sensational news" or anything like that, did I?

If you expect others to be the first with every bit of news, you'll be disappointed a lot more, I fear. 

[masc]

https://www.euronews.com/2023/03/27/nato-hungarian-parliament-ratifies-finlands-membership

 

With Turkey having already announced they will ratify Finland too before their May election, this means Finland should be in NATO in the next 6 weeks or so correct?

[Tux]

2 hours ago, chrisl said:

I think the western armor remains a distraction.  The shaping is already going on with the destruction of RA high value targets, particularly things like AD/CB radar and EW equipment.  They're slowly blinding the RA further and making sure that UA remote operators will have free operating areas.

Yep, exactly my point: always a good idea to look in the opposite direction to the topic that seems to shine brightest in these situations. 

Where are the Ukrainian Ardennes?

[poesel]

31 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

I did not claim it to be "breaking news" or "sensational news" or anything like that, did I?

If you expect others to be the first with every bit of news, you'll be disappointed a lot more, I fear. 

Ach - my try at irony has failed...

In other news: Germany will up its budget for foreign military aid (»Ertüchtigung von Partnerstaaten im Bereich Sicherheit, Verteidigung und Stabilisierung«) from 2,2b€ last year to 5,4b€ this year. Another 8,8b€ are earmarked for the following years. This money will be used for Ukraine and mainly to supply them with ammunition and parts for already delivered systems. That is about 10% of our military budget.

Those expenses have broad support in parliament (everyone except the extreme left & right, which together have 15% of the seats).

[Haiduk]

The beaver in the trench. Background sound will be familiar to Poles 

 

[A Canadian Cat]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

The beaver in the trench.

Oh no. They will view those trenches as a place to fill with water.

[Haiduk]

Just now, IanL said:

Oh no. They will view those trenches as a place to fill with water.

Or will be build a dam, gnawing wood of blindages covering )

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, poesel said:

Ach - my try at irony has failed...

When I first saw your post I had to read it twice to figure out that you were being ironic and fun, so it didn't totally fail

29 minutes ago, poesel said:

In other news: Germany will up its budget for foreign military aid (»Ertüchtigung von Partnerstaaten im Bereich Sicherheit, Verteidigung und Stabilisierung«) from 2,2b€ last year to 5,4b€ this year. Another 8,8b€ are earmarked for the following years. This money will be used for Ukraine and mainly to supply them with ammunition and parts for already delivered systems. That is about 10% of our military budget.

Those expenses have broad support in parliament (everyone except the extreme left & right, which together have 15% of the seats).

Excellent.  Thanks.

Steve

[Gpig]

Those beavers could be dropped from drones to gnaw through the Russian blindages. Just have to teach them how to toss a frag . . .  

Edited March 27, 2023 by Gpig

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

The beaver in the trench. Background sound will be familiar to Poles 

 

Heh.  I once had to try and corral a beaver about 50% larger than that one.  It took a while, but he finally got the hint and went back the way he came.

Steve

[Haiduk]

10 minutes ago, Gpig said:

Those beavers could be dropped from drones to gnaw through the Russian blindages. Just have to teach them how to toss a frag . . .  

A jar with termites will be more effectively ) But in Ukraine they are not common and live only in southern regions  

Edited March 27, 2023 by Haiduk

[cesmonkey]

4 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

According to Der Spiegel 18 Leopard 2s, 40 Marder(s) and 2 Bergepanzer have arrived in Ukraine.

Maybe the Ukrainians were waiting for those for the start of a new offensive?

(O, also three Leopards from Portugal arrived.)

 

[danfrodo]

14 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

 

Anyone else shedding some tears of joy right now?  Thanks for sharing this CesMonkey.  I am hoping to see a thusly equipped unit driving through Starobilsk or Tokmak soon (meaning May or June).

So how many challengers do we think have been sent?  are being sent?  Hopefully it's actually more than what is being disclosed by UK & UKR. 

Edited March 27, 2023 by danfrodo

[Haiduk]

Ukrainian cemetries unlike in CM maintain enough protection from small-arms fire because of tall granite gravestones. Though many graves except granite contour have also metal fences (not shown here) and this hinders movement of infantry and light vehicles.

The fihght in cemetry in SW outskirt of Bakhmut. Likely old video, because it already under enemy control or we don't know something.

 

[Vet 0369]

On 3/24/2023 at 1:47 AM, G.I. Joe said:

I wouldn't call myself an expert, but they look like the standard Soviet hardpoints to me. The instruction sheet PDFs for these resin modeling detail sets from the Ukrainian firm ResKit have good side view diagrams:

APU-470 & APU-73

APU-470 & APU-60

Good news either way!

Perhaps one of our DCS aces could load a MiG-29 and review the hard points to determine whether or not they are Soviet era or if they are different. DCS has extremely accurate aircraft.I’d do it, but I’m not at my PC at the moment.