How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Looks like Russian offensive on Avdiivka by level of disastreous losses can ovecome Vuhledar

I will not post all these Russian milbloggers TG screens, just some takes:

- about 40 minutes 5 UKR tanks were calmly disassembling RUS positions from 800 m and almost didn't change positions. No Mavics lefts with dropping systems to hit them. Artillery is unable to hit even stationary target. ATGM crews on positions pissed off to leave blindages and stand to launchers under tanks fire

20th of March

22nd of March

....I had very hard moment in my conversation - 1st Slaviansk brigade (DPR), which is working now on Avdiivka direction. Losses. Heavy fights. Heaviest. They assault without artillery support. There are many controversal and even unlawful acts against their own [means that DPR commanders keep remains of "domestic" DPR veterans and sent to one-way assaults Russian mobiks under threaten of punishment] 

... Tragical news - large losses in 1st Slaviansk brigade. Alas, I have no rights to say anymore. 

23rd of March

Avdiika area, DPR

Sitauation on direction - "pizdyets" /rus. filthy lang. means "total ****...g sh...t and complete fail"

/if somebody else thinks, that we have learned something in a year/

Thanks Haiduk for that truly heartwarming post.  

I was worried that maybe Andiivka could be another Bakhmut, but so far sounds like another attempt by RU to destroy it's own army.

[Haiduk]

14 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Thanks Haiduk for that truly heartwarming post.  

I was worried that maybe Andiivka could be another Bakhmut, but so far sounds like another attempt by RU to destroy it's own army.

It can be. Despite losses they slowly, but advance. As I can recall in attacks on 22nd of March they lost three comapnies. They can allow themselves. 

One of failed attacks in Vodiane area, SW from Avdiivka. Minefield again. 

 

[dan/california]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If there was any doubt at all, this right here shows why defending against drones needs to be the #1, #2, and probably #3 priorities for any nation interested in winning wars.  That is an entire tank company wiped out by inexpensive and easily replaceable drones.

The manufacturer boasts:

Well, they might have underestimated their value.

Steve

This really can't be over emphasized. You simply cannot maintain a mechanized force in the field without the ability to defend against these kinds of drones. Furthermore these drones are going to improve rapidly, to include autonomous operation and true swarming behavior. U.S. may be worried about the legal/moral issues involved, it is laughable to think the Chinese will pause over it for a second. We have talked a lot of different drone defense regimes, all of them, and combinations of all of them, need to be rigorously tested until we find something that works, and that something has to be produced at scale. By scale I mean the ability to protect your side of the entire FEBA for at least tens of kilometers in depth. Yes this will be heart stompingly expensive, but the alternative is losing the next war.

17 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Thanks Haiduk for that truly heartwarming post.  

I was worried that maybe Andiivka could be another Bakhmut, but so far sounds like another attempt by RU to destroy it's own army.

We seem to have decent confirmation their are at least two fully trained up Bradley battalions in Ukraine. If they have not been committed it is pretty close to proof that the AFU staff don't see anything to really panic about yet. And if I were the Russians I would be seriously considering a bit of panic, if at least 50,000 casualties worth of winter offensive cant even make the Ukrainians commit their better reserves, It is worth pointing out that several recent deliveries/announcements include breaching equipment

Last but not least the new Italian Prime minister is not without flaws, but she is extraordinarily solid on Ukraine. 

 

[MSBoxer]

The latest sea-borne attack in Crimea reminded me of the attack on the airfield months ago and has me wondering why we have not seen any of those awesome satellite images that we had back then.  Not just concerning this attack, but the drone attack on the railyard a few days ago along with others.

[chrisl]

34 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This really can't be over emphasized. You simply cannot maintain a mechanized force in the field without the ability to defend against these kinds of drones. Furthermore these drones are going to improve rapidly, to include autonomous operation and true swarming behavior. U.S. may be worried about the legal/moral issues involved, it is laughable to think the Chinese will pause over it for a second. We have talked a lot of different drone defense regimes, all of them, and combinations of all of them, need to be rigorously tested until we find something that works, and that something has to be produced at scale. By scale I mean the ability to protect your side of the entire FEBA for at least tens of kilometers in depth. Yes this will be heart stompingly expensive, but the alternative is losing the next war.

From watching some of these videos, a Mk I Golf Umbrella would be a major improvement over the current nothing-at-all the Russians are using.  Even better if it came in camo instead of beach ball colors.

[Fenris]

Long interview with UKR infantry callsign Predator (the guy with the trench squire).  Tweet has drone pics of the aftermath.  Auto translate does an ok job on youtube

 

 

Edited March 23, 2023 by Fenris

[MeatEtr]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

Long interview with UKR infantry callsign Predator (the guy with the trench squire).  Tweet has drone pics of the aftermath.  Auto translate does an ok job on youtube

 

 

Wow that guy lived through that. What a beast! Really need this interview with subtitles.

[Fenris]

3 hours ago, chrisl said:

From watching some of these videos, a Mk I Golf Umbrella would be a major improvement over the current nothing-at-all the Russians are using.  Even better if it came in camo instead of beach ball colors.

Each man should also carry extras so that he can cover his hole and have a few decoys.  Probably need to block heat too.

[akd]

Or you could just go ahead and bury yourself and save everybody a lot of trouble:

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

One of failed attacks in Vodiane area, SW from Avdiivka. Minefield again. 

Hmm.  I'm not sure those were mines for the first two destroyed.  Both suffered catastrophic damage consistent with Javelin or Stugna-P.  Usually mines don't result in turret tossing.

Whatever the cause, that is a lot of destruction in one place at one time.  Once again pointing out how futile it is to attack with such a small force.  Too easily wiped out and then nothing left to carry on with the attack.

Steve

[Kinophile]

I like Dara,  but let's review this and see how accurate they were.. It's RAND so,  yeah... But it's also Massicot, so.... 

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Fenris said:

Long interview with UKR infantry callsign Predator (the guy with the trench squire).  Tweet has drone pics of the aftermath.  Auto translate does an ok job on youtube

Thanks for posting that!  The translations were sufficient to learn a lot more about this engagement than we knew before.  Some things I took away from this interview:

1. good company command.  Confidence in what they were doing and, at one point, they were authorized to retreat if they felt it was safe to do so.
2. good support.  Their own BMPs and mortar were providing covering fire.  There were other friendly positions holding their own, but were not close assaulted like Predator's position.
3. good communications. They suffered through some jamming at the beginning, but it got sorted out and they were in touch with each other despite the obvious intensity of the fighting.
4. good intel sharing.  They had a drone in the air and information from it was passed down.  First hand observations were also passed up.
5. good result.  No serious injuries on friendly side, except very minor wounds from splinters.  On the Russian side they suffered 4x KIA out of maybe 20 soldiers, 1xBMP-2 out of two BMPs, and an unknown number wounded that were not left behind.

The most interesting thing I learned from this was the Russian withdrawal.  They popped smoke and then withdrew across an open field.  At first Predator thought they were going to use the smoke to cover an assault, but it turned out that they weren't interested in it.  As he put it, they figured if the first couple of assaults didn't work then trying again wasn't likely to work either.

Interesting what he said about the Russian advancing on the left.  No helmet and wearing hearing protection  Apparently trying to avoid getting a concussion or shell shock.

I didn't notice the Russian on the left was armed with an RPK.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Clearing out a Wagner bunker in the woods.  Two things from this.  The first is how pointless it is to have a defensive position that seems to be a single dugout.  Unlike the Predator video, where the defenders were spread out in small numbers over multiple positions, there looked to be about a half dozen Russians in one very small place and none anywhere else.  Ukrainians had full and unfettered ability to engage it at their leisure without.  The outcome was pretty much predetermined.

The second thing is how many grenades it took to knock this position out!  Despite Ukrainians accurately dropping a half dozen grenades directly into the position there was still some resistance at the end.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/11zfjco/pushing_wagnerites_off_the_road_to_bakhmut_by/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1.  If accurate, a report of why there needs to be more ICC action.  Sooner the better.  Seems at least some in the Kremlin are beginning to figure out that even if this war ends successfully for Russia, they're not going to be able to go anywhere outside of the country without fear of being arrested.  Also nice to see that they couldn't come up with a meaningful retaliatory action.

https://news.yahoo.com/private-chat-leaks-show-moscow-110938709.html

2.  This next article gives some details and background of the Wagner Group's operations in Central African Republic, including mass murders and the recent slaughter of 9 Chinese.  Just more evidence as to why Russia should be branded a State Sponsor of Terrorism.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/witnesses-accuse-russias-wagner-group-of-killing-9-chinese-miners-in-central-african-republic?via=rss&source=articles_fancylink

3.  Speaking of drone attacks, 1 US military contractor was killed and 5 service members wounded in a drone attack in Syria.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3915681-us-contractor-killed-5-service-members-wounded-during-drone-strike-in-syria/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Chris_O has an interesting thread on the costs to the Russian governmental budgets for their "Cope Defenses" of Russian territory:

What's really funny is all the Russian talk about the threat of Ukraine before this war, yet no fortifications were built on even close to this scale.  Apparently Russia really wasn't all that scared of Ukraine until after it attacked.  Yeah, shocking news!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Latest tally of reported Russian attacks.  It's trending downward again:

Steve

[G.I. Joe]

8 hours ago, Huba said:

First Slovakian MiGs are already in Ukraine, and it seems they were flown there instead of being dismantled and towed/ trucked. Another red line crossed and still not WW3. 
Also, while it's definitely not my area of expertise, the hardpoints visible at 0:28 looks rather suspicious, not very soviet at all.

 

I wouldn't call myself an expert, but they look like the standard Soviet hardpoints to me. The instruction sheet PDFs for these resin modeling detail sets from the Ukrainian firm ResKit have good side view diagrams:

APU-470 & APU-73

APU-470 & APU-60

Good news either way!

[poesel]

7 hours ago, chrisl said:

From watching some of these videos, a Mk I Golf Umbrella would be a major improvement over the current nothing-at-all the Russians are using.  Even better if it came in camo instead of beach ball colors.

I was also wondering what happened to this anti-javelin cooking grates they had on their tanks a year ago. Didn't do much against the javelin, but would probably work against a free-falling grenade.

 

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

1.  If accurate, a report of why there needs to be more ICC action.  Sooner the better.  Seems at least some in the Kremlin are beginning to figure out that even if this war ends successfully for Russia, they're not going to be able to go anywhere outside of the country without fear of being arrested.  Also nice to see that they couldn't come up with a meaningful retaliatory action.

https://news.yahoo.com/private-chat-leaks-show-moscow-110938709.html

That is very interesting. The ICC indictment seems to (finally) hit a nerve with the higher ups in Moscow, which the actual war didn't. If the ICC would even hint at continuing this from the top down, I guess we would see some more defenestrations in that sector. Hopefully from the top window.

Not very surprising, but these hypocrites only got worried when the war affects themselves. I guess they thought they could sit it out and, in a few years when everything has cooled down, dig up their foreign assets, and live a happy live somewhere under the sun. Assholes.

[JonS]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

1.  If accurate, a report of why there needs to be more ICC action. 

Can we all just take a moment to enjoy the irony of an American calling for more action by the ICC

[jatmi026]

3 minutes ago, JonS said:

Can we all just take a moment to enjoy the irony of an American calling for more action by the ICC

It's not irony, it's a must for a global policeman to put its fingers everywhere. 

[JonS]

from The Guardian livefeed (so no stable url):

***

Counteroffensive starts soon, says Ukrainian ground forces commander
Ukraine’s top ground forces commander, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, said his forces would soon begin a counter offensive after withstanding Russia’s brutal winter campaign.

He said Russia’s Wagner mercenaries, who have been at the frontline of Moscow’s assault on eastern and southern Ukraine, “are losing considerable strength and are running out of steam”.

“Very soon, we will take advantage of this opportunity, as we did in the past near Kyiv, Kharkiv, Balakliia and Kupiansk,” he said, listing Ukrainian counteroffensives last year that recaptured swathes of land.

***

Kind of weird to telegraph it, unless they're so confident that they feel they can taunt the Russians "we're coming for you, and there's nothing you can do about it"

Edited March 24, 2023 by JonS

[Offshoot]

12 minutes ago, JonS said:

Kind of weird to telegraph it, unless they're so confident that they feel they can taunt the Russians "we're coming for you, and there's nothing you can do about it"

Could be to stir the pot after "On Monday, Prigozhin published a letter to the Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, saying Ukraine aimed to cut off Wagner’s forces from Russia’s regular troops." (also from the Guardian feed)

[Eddy]

If you want to link a particular block from the Guardian feed and your on  PC/Mac right click the time stamp  (e.g. 3hrs ago 05:41) in the top left of the block to get the URL: 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/mar/24/russia-ukraine-war-live-counteroffensive-starts-soon-says-ukrainian-ground-forces-commander?page=with:block-641d194f8f08155de8cdb434#block-641d194f8f08155de8cdb434

Dunno how to do it using the android app tho.

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, JonS said:

from The Guardian livefeed (so no stable url):

***

Counteroffensive starts soon, says Ukrainian ground forces commander
Ukraine’s top ground forces commander, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, said his forces would soon begin a counter offensive after withstanding Russia’s brutal winter campaign.

He said Russia’s Wagner mercenaries, who have been at the frontline of Moscow’s assault on eastern and southern Ukraine, “are losing considerable strength and are running out of steam”.

“Very soon, we will take advantage of this opportunity, as we did in the past near Kyiv, Kharkiv, Balakliia and Kupiansk,” he said, listing Ukrainian counteroffensives last year that recaptured swathes of land.

***

Kind of weird to telegraph it, unless they're so confident that they feel they can taunt the Russians "we're coming for you, and there's nothing you can do about it"

We had alot of that signalling before Kherson, no? There was obvious questions if it was the right thing to do, ultimately we landed on operationally Yes,  but for the PBI,  NOPE.  So it turned out. 

Tbh,  I don't know if there's really anywhere else but Zaporizhia-Melitopol axis. It uses the strengthing ZSU  CoG to destroy /cut a significant chunk of the AFRF. A direct assault could very well succeed and if it does, is a defeat that has immediate Theater effects,  not just operational. It also keeps ZSU logs nice and tidy while yanking apart Russian ones. 

I could see a simultaneous push in Luhansk to tie down that front but still,  Zap-Mel feels inevitable, so no need to dissemble? 

 

[Kinophile]

"UKR Air Force to allow Foreigners as Pilots".

Edited March 24, 2023 by Kinophile