How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

38 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

jeebus, tearing up over that bottom video.  Those soldiers are fighting in the most dangerous place on earth and The President visits them.  I wonder where this was filmed?  How close to the fighting lines?

Though I'd feel better if he didn't stand out like a sore thumb w that black shirt.  

That gas station is surprisingly well stocked.  I’ve seen worse along the 5 between LA and SF. 

[Seminole]

21 hours ago, The_Capt said:

They are investing political capital and risk.  Seriously, what are they teaching these days.  China swinging support for Russia could very well cost them a lot in the end. 

So nothing real?

We've watched China support North Korea to the point they became a nuclear power, at what real cost?  They take any kind of real hit last May for vetoing additional UN sanctions on North Korea?

My guess is they'd rather work with the devil they know in Moscow than the potential of new 'stans.

21 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Uh, I dunno...gas prices maybe.

I am not dodging the question, I am supremely bored by it.  

I'm not sure I'm reading you right here.  It seems that we agree.

21 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I call BS.  The Germans and French were not blocking Ukraine "for the peace of all mankind", they were worried about the fact they we literally neck deep in Russian energy dependency (there is that investment risk thing again) and were more likely worried about the impact pulling Ukraine into NATO would have on that, than any high handed morale "let's not start a war" nonsense.

I'm completely open to the prospect it was due to their love of filthy lucre, and not humanity, that Germany and France sought to avoid a situation that led to war in Ukraine.  I think they correctly viewed that outcome as net negative.

Their motivation for seeking to avoid a conflict doesn't change that their effort was to avoid a conflict.  Because if it wasn't to avoid a conflict, I'm wondering what else it could be.  

21 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So if you want to do revisionist history and try and say "Germany and France opted for peace, and not gas, back in '08, and 14 and in pre-invasion 22" well over you to actually use an internet search engine and prove it.

I don't think it is revisionist to say Germany and France opted for peace because of cheap gas.

What's revisionist to me is the new narrative that Russia hadn't long viewed Ukraine in NATO as a hostile act.  But I understand, in the words of Ambassador Burns, this "remains "an emotional and neuralgic" issue" for this board.

Pointing to a contemporaneous account, for example this piece (CSIS isn't considered wild-eyed crazies, right?) from September 2021, talking about the Russian build up and exercises in April of 2021:

It seems that a major driver of Russian actions was the desire to send signals to the new U.S. administration—namely that the Biden administration should not attempt to challenge the status quo vis-à-vis Ukraine by bringing it closer to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) or aid in the liberation of parts of occupied Donbas.

The author (Mykola Bielieskov is a research fellow with the National Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of Ukraine. Formerly he worked for the Ukrainian Institute of World Policy) even shares the opinion expressed here that Russia's actions are ultimately counterproductive:

On the other hand, Russia is the only one to blame for Ukraine wanting to join NATO. The more Moscow threatens Ukraine with permanent military infrastructure or movement of additional troops and equipment, the more Ukraine wants to join NATO, as the latter sees how quickly the security environment can deteriorate without the concrete security guarantees that NATO provides.

It is striking how during this war scare, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy switched his attitude toward NATO integration. His public pronouncements went from some ambiguity during the 2019 presidential campaign to full support this past spring. 

But he doesn't just erase their motivations (note, motivation should not be conflated with justification).  Like I said before, this was conventional wisdom just 13 months ago.  Hard to find a piece discussing the conflict or prospect of Ukraine in NATO without mention of it, much less saying it wasn't real.  I'm not trying to 'derail' anything by mentioning it.

 

[FancyCat]

27 minutes ago, Seminole said:

Hard to find a piece discussing the conflict or prospect of Ukraine in NATO without mention of it, much less saying it wasn't real.  I'm not trying to 'derail' anything by mentioning it.

Your not wrong, but the massive undoing by Russia's own internal and external messaging on it being a war to provide security against NATO that has accompanied the attempt at a full scale invasion of Ukraine is what changed the game. You bring up Russian arguments against NATO encroachment, but nothing, absolutely nothing about the attempts to annex Ukraine, discredit Ukrainian statehood, undermining Ukrainian culture and nationality. 

Literally speeches on and the beginning of the war by Putin, were not aimed at gathering justification for NATO encroaching on Russian security concerns, they were tirades bemoaning the collapse of the Soviet Union and Russian culture, assertions of the falsehood of Ukraine as a legitimate state and the Ukrainian people as a separate entity from Russia.

So, this war is not due to NATO, by Russia's own admission, it is a war of conquest and subjugation of Ukraine. 

[FancyCat]

I've been waiting for France's Military Industrial Complex to loudly try and get some equipment like some fighter jets to Ukraine. I doubt France, still seething over the AUS-USA sub deal is willing to let the next battle fall so quickly to the F-16. 

 

 

[danfrodo]

9 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I've been waiting for France's Military Industrial Complex to loudly try and get some equipment like some fighter jets to Ukraine. I doubt France, still seething over the AUS-USA sub deal is willing to let the next battle fall so quickly to the F-16. 

 

 

Thirty??  Now that's a number I like seeing when it comes to fighter jets!  I hope UKR can clear out RU AD so these beasts can have maximum impact.

[Haiduk]

It's enough rare thing, but here is example of using green and yellow+green tapes simultainously by two different units.

This is from Bakhmut - two UKR groups met, they clarify situation and "green" group offers covering fire for "yellow" group if they assault in their sector

 

 

Edited March 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

I wonder where this was filmed?

Kostiantynivka town SW from Bakhmut, which is shelled alsmot each day

[cesmonkey]

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

I've been waiting for France's Military Industrial Complex to loudly try and get some equipment like some fighter jets to Ukraine. I doubt France, still seething over the AUS-USA sub deal is willing to let the next battle fall so quickly to the F-16. 

 

 

Press service of UKR Air Forces refuted this information. It was said, France conducted trainings for air controllers and survival training for some pilots, but there no flight trainings on Mirages. 

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

I've been waiting for France's Military Industrial Complex to loudly try and get some equipment like some fighter jets to Ukraine. I doubt France, still seething over the AUS-USA sub deal is willing to let the next battle fall so quickly to the F-16. 

 

 

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Haiduk]

Today's Russian strike on Zaporizhzhia. Residential house was hit with "Tornado-S" rocket (more precise upgrade of "Smerch"). Probably Russians targeted trade complex nearby (in foreground of video), but missed. Result of strike - one civilian was killed, 34 wounded (29 of them hospitalized)

Also this night several Shakheds hit two dormitories and building of technical college in Rzhyshchiv town, 60 km SE from Kyiv. Reason of attack is unknown, probably some pro-Russian informator told Russins there were UKR soldiers, but this currently isn't confirmed even on RUMINT level. In result of strike 8 people were killed, at least four still under ruines, 20 were wounded. Total this night 16 Shakheds attacked Ukraine, 11 were shot down. Several of them in vicinity of Kyiv. 

Moment of strike in Rzhyshchiv

 

Edited March 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

Alas, all three waterdrones and one UAV were destroyed. Close explosion just knocked out windows in some administrative building close to the shore.

[poesel]

Good and long (!) article in German about the situation of mobiks during their 'training' in Russia. I expected something like this, but to read in detail why these guys are so ****ed up in every possible meaning of the word removes any doubt.

https://www.dekoder.org/de/article/ukraine-krieg-mobilisierung-alkoholismus

[Haiduk]

During visit of President to Bakhmut, Russians intensively assaulted in Ivanivske area on south and tried to breakthrough to Khromove on the north. There were heavy clashes, but attacks were repelled.

As caimed soldiers of 93rd mech.brigade Zelenskiy was near destroyed MiG-17 monument area - in 500 m from this place already lays "zero line"   

 

Edited March 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Simcoe said:

Ya I understand. It's hard to separate people that have genuine skepticism of certain points like the pipeline and pro Russian trolls. Probably better to stay out.

Sorry for coming down a bit harsh on you.  I was on the road and had limited time to respond.  I'll try and make up for that now.

For sure your post was badly timed.  We all have limited bandwidth and everybody struggles to keep up with this thread even if checking in daily.  The track record here is that pretty much nothing covered in regular media is missed by this group, either as a quick mention or as a topic of conversation.  As a practical matter it isn't possible to continually revisit things that have already been covered unless there's something new to enter into the conversation. 

Bringing up a topic from over a month ago is problematic.  Especially when there's an easy way to search if it's been discussed (e.g. "Hersh" as the search term).  If you had done that you would have seen a pretty lively debate about the topic and read through it.  That would likely have been sufficient to hold you over until some new information came about, which I have no doubts would revive the conversation.

Skepticism is a good thing, but remember that sources that create/spread disinformation prey on people's skepticism as a primary means of perpetuating that disinformation.  I can't do anything about Seymour Hersh, but I can try and limit the damage that's done by a journalist that has forgotten that the more explosive a story is the more it needs verification before it is fit to publish.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Already a history. Day 1. Lutsk airfield - MiG-29 of 204th Tactical aviation brigade are taking off for several hours before missile strike. 

204th brigade recently was deployed on Belbek airfield in Crimea. This was mostly paper unit. Pilots had very low quantity of flight hours, from 52 MiG-29 and 4 L-39M1 planes only 13 could fly and only 4 MiG-29 and one L-39M1 were combat ready. Russians in 2014 captured airbase without resistance. Most of personnel betrayed Ukraine (62 %) and many of them signed contracts with Russian AF. Only 240 of land personnel and 11 from 21 pilots moved to Ukraine on Kulbakyne airfild near Mykolaiv. Russia later turned back most of jets, but before this removed some systems and damaged wires. More capable and upgraded aircraft Russia didn't return. Only since 2017 brigade had been returning own capabuilities, when their jets were gardually repairing. Since 2018 brigade was deployed on reparied Lutsk airfield. 

Before the war brigade had 15 MiG-29, 2 MiG-29MU1, 4 MiG-29UB, 2 L-39M1

Lutsk airfield after two heavy strikes on 24th of Feb and 11th of March 2022 was completely taken out. 

Edited March 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

52 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Today's Russian strike on Zaporizhzhia. Residential house was hit with "Tornado-S" rocket (more precise upgrade of "Smerch"). Probably Russians targeted trade complex nearby (in foreground of video), but missed. Result of strike - one civilian was killed, 34 wounded (29 of them hospitalized)

Also this night several Shakheds hit two dormitories and building of technical college in Rzhyshchiv town, 60 km SE from Kyiv. Reason of attack is unknown, probably some pro-Russian informator told Russins there were UKR soldiers, but this currently isn't confirmed even on RUMINT level. In result of strike 8 people were killed, at least four still under ruines, 20 were wounded. Total this night 16 Shakheds attacked Ukraine, 11 were shot down. Several of them in vicinity of Kyiv. 

Moment of strike in Rzhyshchiv

 

It's been a while since we've seen Russia murdering civilians because Ukraine struck something of a military nature on Russian soil.  It is sad that Russia and Russians don't care how this makes them look to the rest of the world.  Weak and cruel are two words that easily come to mind.

Steve

[Peregrine]

4 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Near Bakhmut. I really like this guy. Trolling the Orcs a little.

 

They should have found +1 horse and -1 minus shirt for the photo op. That would be dialing it up to 11.

[kevinkin]

A fate worse than death?:

https://dnyuz.com/2023/03/21/ferraris-and-hungry-children-venezuelas-socialist-vision-in-shambles/

Remember this one?: 

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-escape-plan-venezuela-russia-loses-war-1765383

[akd]

One of the more brutal Russian disassembly by drone compilations (I warned you):

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Your not wrong, but the massive undoing by Russia's own internal and external messaging on it being a war to provide security against NATO that has accompanied the attempt at a full scale invasion of Ukraine is what changed the game. You bring up Russian arguments against NATO encroachment, but nothing, absolutely nothing about the attempts to annex Ukraine, discredit Ukrainian statehood, undermining Ukrainian culture and nationality. 

Literally speeches on and the beginning of the war by Putin, were not aimed at gathering justification for NATO encroaching on Russian security concerns, they were tirades bemoaning the collapse of the Soviet Union and Russian culture, assertions of the falsehood of Ukraine as a legitimate state and the Ukrainian people as a separate entity from Russia.

So, this war is not due to NATO, by Russia's own admission, it is a war of conquest and subjugation of Ukraine. 

Add to this a complete lack of any reasonable evidence that Russia would have somehow left Ukraine alone had the West not allowed Eastern European nations into the organization.  A lot of people have brought up the Budapest Memo as evidence the West left Ukraine hanging, but the violation of that agreement by Russia, first in 2014 and now is clear evidence that Russia was never going to "let sleeping dogs lie" if we had kept our hands off.  I argue we likely saved more lives by pulling in Estonia and Latvia (among others).

The only reason to frame this discussion as somehow a result of Western aggression is to try and justify Russian motivations, and the OP has a history of doing exactly that in a somewhat ham-handed anti-US/western narrative.  Putin is a genocidal monster who is waging an illegal war well outside the bounds of the LOAC.  Any righteous casus belli Russia may have had (and it didn't) prior to this war flew out the window at Bucha and the extremely long list of illegal warfare Russia has waged - to the point the ICC has indicted a sitting head of state.

So even if we except this bizarro logic, it is irrelevant to any future analysis, beyond informing us that a strategy of appeasement 1) won't work and 2) We probably should have worked harder to contain Russia, not less because it is pretty clear their military, at least, is operating on a medieval warfare framework.  I would also say that whatever box we put Russia into after this is over needs to be airtight, at least until Russia as a nation can demonstrate that it is ready to join the rest of civilization.

Post-war I am extremely worried as the viable strategic option space that sees Russia as a functioning nation heading back towards some sort of rational normalization is getting smaller and smaller.  Our ability to create a soft landing for Russia that it will not simply try to exploit is also getting harder and harder to see.  Dumping the whole thing on China's doorstep is not a bad idea but re-containment of Russia will have to be on the menu, right along with regime change.  Trying to engineer a nation is extremely hard, but that is what this is looking more and more what is going to be required in order to secure Ukraine and ensure Russia does not completely fly apart and make everything worse.

[Haiduk]

25 minutes ago, akd said:

One of the more brutal Russian disassembly by drone compilations (I warned you):

 

After 2:47 have to be a "cutting scene" - Wagner fighter, being wounded in blindage, shot himself with AK. I can't find fragment of this video now. 

Edited March 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Fenris]

Clip of T-55 on rail - obviously I can't vouch for what they are saying, is Visegrad, so grain + salt etc