How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Major Vladislav Peretiagin, HQ of 29th CAA, Eastern military district. Was killed on 14th of March 2023

 

Major of police, Imran Ilyasov, Chechen "Akhmat-Groznyi" OMON (special police) unit. Was killed on 9th of November 2022

 

Edited March 18, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

UKR soldiers discovered Chineese 82 mm mortar bombs on captured Russian positions

 

Could be these came from China, but AFAIK North Korea purchases a lot of munitions from China for its own uses.  Shipments of munitions from NK was rumored last year, so could be they came from NK and not China.

I don't know how to read Chinese manufacturing codes, but it looks like these are from 1974.

Steve

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Could be these came from China, but AFAIK North Korea purchases a lot of munitions from China for its own uses.  Shipments of munitions from NK was rumored last year, so could be they came from NK and not China.

I don't know how to read Chinese manufacturing codes, but it looks like these are from 1974.

Steve

I found this is old video and deleted it. Though I have seen today a news in twitter that USA confirmed China supplies Russia with ammunition. 

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I stated that Russia lost this war in the first 2 days of it starting.  Not because I'm some brain dead ra-ra-Ukraine or boo-Russia type.  Instead, my opinion came from decades of study and having, apparently, a better read on the tea leaves than many professionals.  I stand by that assessment now, except I think Russia lost even worse than when I first made the call.

Agreed! And I’ll pile on even more: On the first day of the invasion I looked at my loving, beautiful, fiercely patriotic (angry) Air Force brat wife and said, “I don’t see how Russia ever comes back from this, let alone Putin himself.” Not because I knew anything resembling even a feather’s weight fraction of your knowledge, but because I believed in the reaction of the USA, NATO, Europe in general. The Western Alliance. Battered as it was by years of indifference and internal dissensions. Why? Because I live in that bubble of outmoded old-fashioned optimism about the balance between decent humans and those that embrace fascism’s siren call. I did know that besides the Biden Administration rather surprising and openly sharing classified intelligence, it had been lining up Allied support well before Day One. But most of all, I believed that Europe would be shaken by the Russians crossing the Rubicon. That the USA would flood Ukraine with weapons. And that NATO would rediscover its core purpose was indeed real and knocking on the door. That “this shall not stand”. 

Pure emotion and vaguely informed opinion. No expertise. Blind faith that all the decades since the horrors of WWII had cemented a shared foundation of values that really meant something to our cultures, however varied and disputational we all may be. Will cracks develop if this goes on and on? Probably. We are but human. Yet without any of the deep, specific military knowledge you and others have, I believe in our ideals, however flawed we all are. Further, I believe in the other side of the Russian collapse coin. That this war is existential for us. That should the Western Allies’ will crumble and Ukraine be abandoned, the “West” itself will have committed cultural suicide. That we will have no foundation, no core, and our time in the sun will be past.

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Could be these came from China, but AFAIK North Korea purchases a lot of munitions from China for its own uses.  Shipments of munitions from NK was rumored last year, so could be they came from NK and not China.

I don't know how to read Chinese manufacturing codes, but it looks like these are from 1974.

Steve

We are going to be learning to read a lot of things in Chinese, even if we come good in the end...

[Haiduk]

Last night Wagners crossed Bakhmutka river from Zabakhmutka district of the town and gained some ground having a goal to advance further to town center. UKR troops after couter-attack pushed them back beyond the river. Also large ammo dump was destroyed in rear of Wagners. 

Maryinka - there is no new information, but recently was heavy asasult, our guys were not happy, but held the line.  

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

We are going to be learning to read a lot of things in Chinese, even if we come good in the end...

Sometimes I think the instruction manuals that come with my purchases came in Chinese instead of what they mistakenly believe is English.  Scratch that thought.  The instructions I get are informative enough and often hilariously wrong, so also entertaining

Steve

[Haiduk]

UKR kamikadze drones RAM II of SBU "Alfa" Special Forces attacked two SAMs Tor M2 on Zaporizhzia direction

First, alas, hit the tree, but second at least inflicted damages. 

RAM II is kamikadze variant of UKR-designed Leleka-100 fix-wing UAV, which widely used in artillery. It has 30 km range, but, alas, have too weak HEAT warhed in comparison with Lancet. It can penetrate only 40 mm of armor. Though, it also can use HE-FRAG and thermobaric warheds. 

 

Edited March 18, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

UKR kamikadze drones RAM II of SBU "Alfa" Special Forces attacked two SAMs Tor.

First, alas, hit the tree, but second at least inflicted damages. 

 

 

This should be preemptively included in the intro to the next game, to reduce the endless complaints about " My wunderwaffen hit a tree, &^%%^*(&, this can't be right."  . Glad the SBU guys sent two.

 

I also anticipate endless arguments on the point value of chain link screens...

Edited March 18, 2023 by dan/california

[The_Capt]

Just now, NamEndedAllen said:

Put another way, wouldn’t the Chinese face the same problems you describe, while trying to fight a nation fighting like Ukraine? Especially if that nation is supported by the Western Allies? This seems in abstract to be a symmetrical situation. Aren’t these the general challenges any opponent would face if attacking a country fighting like Ukraine? Or are you suggesting the Chinese have already learned all the lessons, developed and equipped the new technologies, while the USA military, NATO nations are woefully behind? Or willfully ignoring the lessons, and have not applied doctrine and equipped the advanced technologies already owned or in the pipeline?

China would absolutely face the same problem in a proxy war a la Russia in Ukraine.  They have to be considering this with respect to Taiwan; however, geographically it is a different problem set.  The difference is that China does not have a 30 years history of projecting military power to reinforce the global order that it built during the Cold War and then expanded after the Soviet Union fell.  We are the ones with a history of interventions and force projection, so we will likely be the ones to see this up close and personal first.  The Chinese method, up until now, has largely been Soft (or Sharp) power based and focused on the economic dimensions of power.  Their military ambition is still really focused on their region but like Russia, they have convinced themselves the only way to be safe from US/Western influence is to arm-up and bare teeth.

As to learning speed - yes, that is exactly what I am saying.  The main reason is that our biggest strength is also our biggest weakness - unity.  China is centralized politically and has been for generations, they also have a far different cultural focus with respect to unity.  I do not believe for a second China is a homogeneous mass but when it comes to legislation and policy they have far faster reactions times than we do.  Our strength is that policy reflects everyone (or tries to) and over time makes us more resilient to shocks than rigid centralized systems.  We also undertake social change to sustain stability far faster, while China a lot less so.

However, in context of military power, the west is woefully slow on legislation and policy development.  Internally nations always lag military reality.  As a bloc we are entirely mis-aligned most of the time (see: Guantanamo Bay) which causes a lot of friction when we try and pull military power together.  Sometimes is works exactly as it should, at other times it is tenuous cat-herding.  LOAC moves even slower.  We do not have international agreement ROEs for cyber or IO (let alone landmines and cluster munitions) and we have had them for at least 20 years.

So in my example, sure the military will learn lessons - however history has shown we will double down on legacy technology and wear new technology like an accessory until we realize it is probably bigger than that.  But even if we do, we will still be bound by policy and law.  So UAS, sure we will buy more and employ them but laws will prevent full autonomy for some time while China has no such problems.  China is taking a lot of notes on this war, as we are now how fast those lesson translate into actionable policy is likely in China's favour as they need less collective agreement.  

So what?  Well if China invades Thailand they are going to be in serious trouble for all the same reasons we would be in Country X.  Their policy and legislation mechanism will likely move quicker to cover off their blind spots and gaps but I suspect their military doctrine is more rigid and less improvisational.  They would hurt and bleed, but their political will would likely outlast us in the same spot.  If we try and invade/intervene in country X we are screwed under our current policy and legislative frameworks in many ways.  So we would have to policy by CONOP or simply have to try and do it with hands tied while political calculus scrambled - just like the last time, except instead of insurgency we are talking empowered proxy hybrid warfare.

The mitigating factor (which I think is what you are shooting for) is that we can keep a technological and doctrinal edge IF we pay close attention to this war and not get lost in confirming our own military dogma and sense of superiority.  We can adapt very quickly within our policy framework, however, we also need to generate military advice to policy quickly and coherently to kick start those political processes. 

[Elmar Bijlsma]

Okay, I am seriously beginning to wonder how many YPRs we Dutch had left to give. I had it in my mind that we sent over some 40 of them. But they keep showing up just about everywhere. Either we had more of the things that I thought or they are multiplying like Tribbles.

Good to see the Ukrainians get good use out of the old beasties. I sometimes wince when I see what risks they are taking with them, but they seem to be doing alright, all things considered. The Ukrainians should get on the phone with the Turks and Egyptians and see if they can get some more.The ones with cannons, if they can manage it.

[Jiggathebauce]

5 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Another look from a mile high. And its cloudy with some turbulence:

https://americanmind.org/salvo/the-new-great-game/

---

The Western response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is widely seen as a sign of a reinvigorated alliance of democracies against authoritarianism. Even historically anti-war publications like the Guardian speak volubly about the West’s heroic “defense of liberty.” Raising concerns about petty issues like a potential nuclear war over Ukraine leads one now to be dismissed as a Putinist stooge, both by those who habitually back wars, like neoconservatives and defense contractors, and those who almost always oppose them, or used to, anyway.

India, for example, has capitalized on the low cost of fuel brought forth by the sanctions imposed on Russia by buying up to 33 times more Russian oil in 2022 than in the years prior to the war, and despite canceling a summit with Vladimir Putin over his disagreement with the war, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has not yet officially condemned the invasion of Ukraine.

The lack of solidarity can be seen as fecklessness or rank opportunism. But it also reflects the alienation of the developing world from the Western neoliberal world. In large part, this is driven by basic needs. Countries with growing populations face more immediate challenges than whether or not Greta Thunberg approves of them. Youth unemployment, a key marker of underdevelopment, according to the World Bank is 27% in Iran, 31.9% in India, 64.2% in South Africa, 31.9% in Brazil, and 16% in Indonesia.

 the West, despite occasional bravado, is rapidly deindustrializing, nowhere more obviously than in the birthplace of industry, Great Britain, while working to stifle both energy and food production across the West. America’s working class is in decline, and life expectancy has gone down for the first time in peace time as upward mobility has stalled, which presents a less than inspiring model. The fact that the shift to renewables is “normalizing” blackouts across the West so that even energy rich places like Alberta now experience power outages can’t be too impressive to developing nations.

The much ballyhooed “green” apocalyptic drive to wipe out fossil fuels plays into China’s existing strengths while weakening Western economies. China dominates both the emerging solar and battery markets, and, through alliances with African countries and Asian nations like Indonesia, maintains a strong grip on the world’s supplies of rare-earth elements, critical for wind turbines, solar panels, and electric vehicles.

The West’s response to Ukraine has been justified but also solipsistic. Politicians in Washington, Brussels, Berlin, and London may feel better about themselves even as they thoughtlessly drive an ever deeper wedge from the parts of the world that represent the demographic future of humanity. In the next 50 years, according to the United Nations, the world will see less growth, at 2.7 billion, compared to the previous half century’s 4.1 billion. But all of that growth will be in the less developed world, generally in areas with low literacy, high fertility, and sadly no electricity. Between 2022 and 2050, United Nations projections indicate most of the world population growth will occur in sub-Saharan Africa, where fertility rates are still relatively high even as populations plummet elsewhere.

Instead of the inevitable global progress toward liberal democracy and market capitalism, the surviving democracies now struggle to find allies against autocratic regimes in China, Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. These autocratic countries often see themselves as the proud inheritors of past imperial regimes, whether Tsarist, Ottoman, Chinese, Arab, or Persian. China today is no more likely to become a constitutional democracy than it was under the Mongols or their fourteenth century Ming successors. It has evolved into a highly nationalistic autocracy, fortified by a system of semi-permanent caste privilege and technology-enhanced social control.

Until Western democracies develop practical ways to build sustainable economies unhampered by draconian approaches to the often exaggerated climate apocalypse, the Russo-Ukraine War could end up accelerating the appeal of autocracy in much of the world. Nations do not live solely on ideals, press conferences, and non-profit moralizing. They must first feed their people and provide them with at least a whisper of hope. Until the West wakes up from its self-referential slumbers, the tide of history may be turn out less friendly to Ukraine’s loyal friends than to those who either abet aggression or maintain a steady indifference.

---

In a nutshell, the writers are forwarding: The west was suffering from self imposed internal bleeding before the war, and now the bleeding is happening externally on the battlefields of Ukraine. The developing world is watching, which is why Ukraine's victory has to be assured quickly. None of this "we will fight on for years". Distracted by war and other nonsense, the West risks growing areas of the world falling into China's orbit completely.  Sure the south to north migration will slow if China's infrastructure initiatives make places livable. But there goes the liberal democracy's appeal and with that its standard of living. 

Yeesh, how much did Exxon and Chevron pay for this imperialist drivel? 

[Haiduk]

First evidence of successful UKR tactical advance on Zaporizhzhia front two days ago. UKR soldiers inspect goods of Russian soldiers on seized position. Soldier twice says "Nesterianochka! We already close!" - he means Nesterianka village in 8 km SW from Orikhiv. Other attack in southern direction from Orikhiv toward Robotyne was repelled. 

 Paper in hands of UKR soldier is Russian instructin of how to mop-up buildings. 

 

Edited March 18, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

First evidence of successful UKR tactical advance on Zaporizhzhia front two days ago. UKR soldiers inspect goods of Russian soldiers on seized position. Soldier twice says "Nesterianochka! We already close!" - he means Nesterianka village in 8 km SW from Orikhiv. Other atatck in southern direction from Orikhiv toward Robotyne was repelled. 

 Paper in hands of UKR soldier is Russian instructin of how to mop-up buildings. 

 

Those body armor plates look to be a lot lighter than the ones I've handled.  The soldiers seem to find them funny, so that's not inspiring confidence in their quality   Plate carrier is either Russian commercial type or an import.

Steve

[Beleg85]

Some personal rochade news from Ukraine- it seems gen. Mikailo Zabrodsky stepped out from parlament and get back into army as second-in-command (?) of Zaluzhny. Probably was there anyway for a lot of time in this war, but now he can formally be back in command.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2023/03/17/7393904/

Zabrodsky is famous for "long range" mechanized raid along separatists lines in 2014 undertaken by his 95th Air Assault, which was one of most successful military operation of AFU by that time. Some Ukrainians speak highly of him, as aggressive and forward thinking officer.

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

We are going to be learning to read a lot of things in Chinese, even if we come good in the end...

I've learned to read much more quickly in Cyrillic from following this.  My Chinese is limited to a few sichuan food dishes.

[akd]

Older footage of UKR BMP-2s ambushing VDV BMD-4M:

 

[dan/california]

36 minutes ago, akd said:

Older footage of UKR BMP-2s ambushing VDV BMD-4M:

 

The side without the drone is playing on iron difficulty. The side with the drone is not. 

[Mm1ut1]

On 1/20/2023 at 5:31 AM, Kraft said:

Some interesting things being tested 

 

[Billy Ringo]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

  One thing that is starting to grate on these drive bys is the complete lack of effort or accountability.

I think we need counter-arguments and counter-factual discussion or we risk becoming a true echo chamber.  However, those who are offering counter-narratives need to do at least a much work as we do in our ongoing analysis/assessment, and at least be as thorough in the back and forth. 

So the bar for counter-arguments is nowhere near high enough in my opinion, and I have yet to see a lot of it being delivered on anything that resembles to level we are actually conducting analysis of this war.-

I would like the drive-bys to put at least a little effort into this and actually do some work for a change.  At this point I think I could argue their points better than they can, which is a clear sign we either need a higher counter-narrative bar or may get some better counter-thinkers in here.

The level of discussion in this thread is extremely high, which is why I read it and am very thankful.  The knowledge, study and experience of several contributing posters is off the effin charts...which makes this such a valuable source of information.  However, it may also deter counter-arguments in that so few individuals have equal experience to voice counter opinions which then leads to...an echo chamber of sorts.

I could study and research a relevant topic for months, (outside of my own little business/supply chain domain), and guarantee you and a few others could argue my points better than I without any research whatsoever.  But, in my opinion, we still need those counter opinions/arguments--when presented in a logical and respectful manner-- even if they aren't at the same level of expertise as some others. 

Just my opinion. Peace.

[Vet 0369]

On 3/16/2023 at 5:30 AM, Haiduk said:

This "something being hit" already was confirmed by Fighterbomber TG - Wagner's Su-25. Pilot survived.  

Thank you. That’s really great news! LOL, however, I reserve the right to be skeptical of “cut to result” videos.

[The_Capt]

Just now, Billy Ringo said:

The level of discussion in this thread is extremely high, which is why I read it and am very thankful.  The knowledge, study and experience of several contributing posters is off the effin charts...which makes this such a valuable source of information.  However, it may also deter counter-arguments in that so few individuals have equal experience to voice counter opinions which then leads to...an echo chamber of sorts.

I could study and research a relevant topic for months, (outside of my own little business/supply chain domain), and guarantee you and a few others could argue my points better than I without any research whatsoever.  But, in my opinion, we still need those counter opinions/arguments--when presented in a logical and respectful manner-- even if they aren't at the same level of expertise as some others. 

Just my opinion. Peace.

I am not really looking for same level of expertise.  A level of rigor, maybe a few supporting opinions from credible sources?  I mean we get a lot of "here is wot I think" which is something but unless one is an expert then sourcing one is normally a good idea to back it up.

I am an expert and I still look at supporting sources because I am not an expert on everything. 

[danfrodo]

3 hours ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Yeesh, how much did Exxon and Chevron pay for this imperialist drivel? 

thanks, I didn't want to be the first to go there, though it was kinda obvious 

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Here R18 octocopter. It was developed by "Aerorozvidka" ("Aerorecon") volunteer unit in 2017 and launched to produce in 2019. Now these drones cost 45 000 $ each and are produced with donations

Each R18 can carry up to 5 kg of load, but usually it takes two, rarely three RKG-1600 bomblets (about 1,1 kg each), dropping from 100-300 m over the target. The drone has a range up to 8 km and 40 minutes of flight duration. Drone is equipped with thermal camera

You can donate on R18 fleet if you like to see such videos: https://aerorozvidka.ngo/r18/ (ENG page)

Except "Aerorozvidka" group, most skilled user of these drones is Special Forces of SBU

Because of this drone has limited range (first version had only 4 km), operators forced to launch them from "zero line" or even in grey zone to reach as far as possible, so they have great risk during their night missions.

 

 

Pondering two somewhat obvious things you could do with a drone bomber if you started with a clean sheet of paper. First would be to hold the bombs /grenades vertically in the in the center mass. This would mostly eliminate flopping back and forth before the fins stabilize it nose down. I don't have data on much that would help accuracy, but i would bet quite a bit of money it doesn't hurt. it also seems a test rig wouldn't be impossibly difficult if you were already working with these drones. The second much higher cost, but also higher pay off thing would be to use a hydrogen fuel cell instead of a battery, yes it would probably double the price. But the gains in available range/watt hours would also be large. Since we just watched one of them take out AT LEAST five or ten million dollars worth of armored vehicle, the improved ability to reach further, or launch from more survivable locations seems like it would be worth it. One drone killing one tank is a very good deal even at three or five times the price, as a long term average performance. Operators living to get good at it is not irrelevant either. And yes if they could just go hunt in assigned kill box by themselves that would be great.

per google...

 

 

Hydrogen holds 125-330 times as much energy as lithium-ion batteries per kilogram .Oct 4, 2022

 

Edited March 19, 2023 by dan/california

[NamEndedAllen]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

The mitigating factor (which I think is what you are shooting for) is that we can keep a technological and doctrinal edge IF we pay close attention to this war and not get lost in confirming our own military dogma and sense of superiority.  We can adapt very quickly within our policy framework, however, we also need to generate military advice to policy quickly and coherently to kick start those political processes. 

Yes, thank you. It’s a big IF! Excellent points, especially regarding the cultural/political differences. Many have suggested that China is facing a brief window to invade Taiwan. A lot of reasons are discussed, including the fact that the USA military does eventually apply what it learns. I’ve been thinking about something more fundamental on the Chinese side, the future of China’s formal long term goal to militarily equal or surpass the USA military dominance, across the board by 2050.

If we focus on the past decade and China’s rapid modernization program, China arguably has been growing far faster than its opposition. Consider China’s mountains of money poured into platform building programs and technological advances, fueled in part by espionage/theft. The literature is filled with impressive developments in both naval and Air Force. BUT…that was then. In the not too distant future, the costs of maintenance for these recent platforms arriving is going to balloon at the same. This is crushing in the West, and China’s costs in the future will likewise be far steeper. That time will be approaching soon for its first construction wave.  Equally challenging will be the ending of the huge advantage China enjoys in personnel expenses. As the current platforms age, so will the personnel. As will expanded needs for more highly educated personnel. China will begin face what the West has been coping with for years. Competition from industry and the civilian sector. Yes, China’s industry is more integrated with its military than the case in the West. But China’s economy inevitably is shifting from the less tech heavy low wage industries that initially fueled its export/capital rise. Those are moving into other countries following China’s footsteps. More advanced industries require higher education levels and…higher salaries. Otherwise the river of export profits that helped fuel its military growth will stagnate. So military salaries and investment costs will rise regardless of the heavy hand of the government. Worse, the costs of next generation ships, planes, missiles, tanks, radars, drones, and the rest will all be much higher than yesterday. Not equalizing the costs in the West, but certainly shrinking the vast current gaps. Oh, don’t forget China’s demographic squeeze!

Back in the USA, its military has been facing these challenges for a long time. Although there aren’t any magical solutions, decades of experience making these choices and compromises is not to be trivialized. At the same time, that experience has been coupled with the experience of a number of wars, now capped with major war in Ukraine. While I agree with everything you said about the social framework differences, these experiences cannot be bought by China. 

All of which suggests that the relative gains by China in the past will not be at nearly the same rate in the future. Nor will that rate hold steady. Even if that 2050 parity date is pessimistic, it shows China’s realistic recognition of how far it has to go. And the current USA military/technological dominance is a moving target. China’s military knows this. So the point of greatest danger of war is calculated in USA Navy and Air Force circles, and the time of greatest opportunity for China is calculated in Beijing. I don’t know how closely they line up. But they can’t be too far apart. As well, there is Taiwan’s own non-trivial military and technological effort and what IT is learning from Ukraine. My opinion is that China is sobered by the enormous cost of every kind that Russia has already paid, and the low probability of any worthwhile recovery, and the immediate and forceful stiffening of Western resolve, even at significant costs to all the nations. The conclusion must be that any invasion of Taiwan would have to result in a quick, irresistible and decisive victory, and before whatever enabling window closes. Wouldn’t it be both cheaper and wiser to let time reach a peaceful rapprochement? Now back to the war in Europe.