How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

They do try to evacuate when they can, but attacking is simply very difficult in these circumstances- it's no longer War on Terror, so for example forget about helis or "leave no bodies behind". Damian Duda, chief of medical group working now in Bakhmut, did quite interesting comparisions between both systems. Ukrainian one is also far from perfect, not every soldier can be 100% sure all the time everyone will start to move around him- but this is mainly due nature of this conflict, not something specifically Ukrainian or Russian. It also signficantly improved during this year, also at civilian front.

While Russians...well darwinistic attitude to life is rather widespread in this army, but casualties are also due to casualties- intense tactics used. Add drones (on both sides) who does not hesitate to bomb even wounded or under evacuation, or snipers specifically targeting ambulances. There was a video not long time ago from a drone that hunted some muscovite soldier with his foot being already completely torn off...gruesome sight. Generally many rules of civilized engagements seem to fall from window simply because how lethal and unforgiving is this war, both due to technology and hatred of participants. This conflict often more resembles Pacific War than NW Theatre in this regard.

Clip from crew of N.Stanko about drone group, several days ago:

 

At 12:23 he shows a HEAT round that looks like sheet metal wrapped around the explosive and welded.  Is that a warhead that they stripped out of something like an RPG to save weight on the drones, or are they actually getting the cluster bombs and taking them apart for the HEAT submunitions (and also stripping off extra housing materials)?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Y'all missed the basic difference that drove how a society adjusted (or didn't)  to its new situation - regular democratic changes in home government. 

Well, that's part of it for SOME empires that fell.  Though it is a bit of a chicken and egg situation.  For much of the British Empire its government was technically democratic.  However, the ruling elites more-or-less ran the country and they were more-or-less in favor of imperialism.  Lots of reasons for that, but economic benefits were foremost.  So, on its own, democracy was actively supporting imperialism, not opposing it.

However, as the problems of empire abroad caused difficulties at home, other forces began to have more sway within the government.  Namely those who did not receive enough direct benefits from the imperial system began to question its value.  As the people in the foreign lands caused increasing trouble for the empire, more sacrifices were required of the British people.  Again, largely from those who did not see a benefit from continuing on with imperialist policy.  Military defeats became more regular and costly over time, which furthered the change in attitude towards maintaining the imperial system.  That eventually led to shifts in political power and that led to the decline of empire.

Something similar played out in France, with the military defeats in Algeria and Indochina causing people to say "enough is enough".  Belgium and The Netherlands had similar experiences.  Others, like Italy and Germany, lost their colonies through defeats and then themselves were defeated because of expansionist policies.  Japan, of course, had its own lessons on why it should stay closer to home.  Still others were kicked out of the empire game so long ago that their peoples decided not to try and get back into the game.

Democracy at home, natural or imposed upon it, certainly helped with the transition away from imperialism, but the common element really is repeated military defeats and the costs of keeping angry people under thumb.  Without that I don't think the appetite for imperialism would have gone away as quickly or (in some cases) peacefully.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

 

38 minutes ago, chrisl said:

At 12:23 he shows a HEAT round that looks like sheet metal wrapped around the explosive and welded.  Is that a warhead that they stripped out of something like an RPG to save weight on the drones, or are they actually getting the cluster bombs and taking them apart for the HEAT submunitions (and also stripping off extra housing materials)?

It is entirely possible they are fabricating them from scratch. The fact that a drone dropped munition never sees a high G load makes the fuse a vastly simpler thing to build. The very first time it gets hit hard it is supposed to go bang. It might be a little nervous to arm and launch it. People develop a tolerance for things like that when there is a war on.

A basic shaped charge is just a copper disk, a chunk of C4 and a fuse. All the tech at this point is getting the fuse to survive being launched in some violent manner, and then bounced through the atmosphere at 100s of meters per second, or more. Drone delivery solves all of that.

Edited March 12, 2023 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Still would be rather cautious regarding these rumours- except some articles in dubious titles and info from Ukrianians (who are his enemies, obviously) there is no direct evidence this is true. I think we would see much more movement among Chechen emigrees, gossips are spreading among diaspora faster than wildfire.

Absolutely agree.  A couple of days might have passed without anybody doing much of anything out of fear, but enough time has gone by that something would have leaked out to confirm.  However, the nature of strongmen like Kadyrov is that he's going to need to make an appearance.  Not doing so will, de facto, make people think the rumors are true.  It is possible that Kadyrov is sick, but didn't go to Germany, and the Ukrainians are trolling him.

At present all we know is the specialized hospital plane went from Germany to Moscow and back to Germany.  Someone important was on that flight, of that there should be no doubts.  However, the early rumors that it was a sick oligarch is more likely.  Rich and powerful enough to get the flight arranged for, but not someone who would be missed from the public eye for a few weeks.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-11-2023

 

Quote

Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova confirmed that there is infighting in the Kremlin inner circle, that the Kremlin has ceded centralized control over the Russian information space, and that Russian President Vladimir Putin apparently cannot readily fix it. Kremlin journalists, academics, and Novorossiya supporters held a forum on the “practical and technological aspects of information and cognitive warfare in modern realities” in Moscow on March 11.[2] During a panel discussion Zakharova stated that the Kremlin cannot replicate the Stalinist approach of establishing a modern equivalent to the Soviet Information Bureau to centrally control Russia’s internal information space due to fighting among unspecified Kremlin “elites.”[3]

That seems significant to me...

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's March 10th report included this about artillery shell supplies:

Quote

 The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 9 that Russian forces have started moving artillery ammunition from other regions in Russia to Ukraine after expending most of Russia's shell supplies in the central regions of Russia.[42] Russian forces are unlikely to solve persistent shell shortages in the short term, and if Russian officials have decided to prioritize shells for the Wagner Group then they will likely have to undersupply artillery ammunition to conventional Russian forces elsewhere in Ukraine. Personnel of the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District, who are reportedly deploying to the Vuhledar area, released a video complaint on March 8 and claimed that Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut use a week’s supply of artillery ammunition in a day while they do not have enough shells to conduct ground assaults.[43]

Ukraine is saying something that I mentioned a few days ago, which is a (probable) part of Russia's ammunition shortages is due to them having used up all of the easiest to acquire shells.  Namely, those located in the western parts of the Russian Federation.  Moving ammo from, say, Vladivostok is more problematic and expensive than moving it from Kursk.  So Kursk got emptied out first, now they are getting stuff transported from further away.

This is important because it means Russia will suffer, and continue to suffer, from shell shortages even though they technically have more ammo in warehouses.  Somewhere.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, I really think the IRS and FBI should investigate his bank account.  Macgregor can not be THAT stupid and mentally ill, yet also be able to make cohesive sentences.  Most likely he is on a payroll.

"What is stopping Russia from rolling over the Dnepr, taking Kyiv, and going to the Polish border?" he asks.  Well, for starters, Russia is topping Russia.

Good lord.  There's one thing to play Devil's Advocate, it's another thing to be hopelessly bogged down by Cold War logic, but this?  Pure insanity or, as I posit, payment for services rendered.

Steve

And another CSIS alum has totally lost it too.

First the 'UN-monitored plebiscites' brainstorm that made Luttwak persona non grata in Kyiv, and now this....

The most charitable read on this is that he's concern trolling, to see if he can get Russia to actually TRY this, hoping nobody at Stavka looks at a map.

...or that none of the hostile nations nearby on all 3 sides takes any notice of the troop buildup.

Edited March 12, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[sburke]

can't we just deport this guy to Russia?  He can then sit down with Shoigu and plan the great offensive.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

can't we just deport this guy to Russia?  He can then sit down with Shoigu and plan the great offensive.

Ed is not pro-Russian by any means, he just lives in his own pure strategy world. Or more properly, it's like a ''Philosophy of Strategy', even more abstract and detached from empirical observation.

...It would be a bit like Hitler (or the Kaiser) sitting down and playing Diplomacy, and using that to determine his actual war/alliance plans.

 

[P.S. My daughter and 2 friends are studying WWI in school at the moment, so I pulled Diplomacy off the shelf last weekend and played 8 turns (6 players, Turkey armed but inactive). It was enough for them to grasp the 'two front war' dilemma facing the Central Powers, and Britain's balancing/spoiling role on the Continent. They actually got into it a lot more than expected.]

Edited March 12, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

18th century bear-baiting, in effect.

...Oh wait, it seems they're still actually doing it in Russia, for tourists [2004]. Quelle surprise.

Blech.

Anyone else have thoughts? (on the videos)

Of the bears?  Yeah, I get bears like that in my yard occasionally. I have a good video of one of them right on the other side of the sliding door from me. I mostly get them when the people across the street put smelly stuff in their trash - their yard is steep and mine is flat, so the bear tears open the bags on my front yard.

Or did you mean the Terra videos?

One of the first things that struck me is that Russia has so little ISR over the access to Bakhmut that drone teams can go into Bakhmut for the day, direct a bunch of fire, then go home for dinner and a bath.  Ukraine may be suffering casualties on the line, but they're also not even close to being in a desperate situation there.

The video with the reporter Nastya reinforces that. Those guys were leaving that mortar emplaced in one spot for a long time without a lot of concern for CB or being spotted by drones.  And that mortar looked rock steady on firing - they've had some time to get it settled in.  They probably are able to dial in fixed reference points over time and it helps with both their conservation of shells and their ability to avoid detection.  Get coordinates and hit them with only a few rounds fired.  

People at the big defense contractors really ought to be watching the Terra videos.  Those guys are doing an impressive job with commercial units, but you can see a bunch of spots where small enhancements in either their local hardware/software or their connectivity would make them significantly more effective.  Russia has to have very little capability to track signals around Bakhmut if those guys can stand around in one spot for 15 minutes radiating and not draw artillery fire.  Given the Russian positions, if they had the right equipment they could nail the location of those guys very accurately, just from their emissions.

 

 

[Offshoot]

23 minutes ago, chrisl said:

One of the first things that struck me is that Russia has so little ISR over the access to Bakhmut that drone teams can go into Bakhmut for the day, direct a bunch of fire, then go home for dinner and a bath.  Ukraine may be suffering casualties on the line, but they're also not even close to being in a desperate situation there.

The video with the reporter Nastya reinforces that. Those guys were leaving that mortar emplaced in one spot for a long time without a lot of concern for CB or being spotted by drones.  And that mortar looked rock steady on firing - they've had some time to get it settled in.  They probably are able to dial in fixed reference points over time and it helps with both their conservation of shells and their ability to avoid detection.  Get coordinates and hit them with only a few rounds fired. 

Here's another video about a mortar team from a different unit in Bakhmut. They say that they can be in one position for a day or two but that it depends - Russian artillery can respond quickly but it isn't strong or accurate. And as per the hromadske video, it also depends on Ukraine maintaining a constant supply of drones because they are still losing them regularly.

 

Edited March 12, 2023 by Offshoot

[dan/california]

25 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Here's another video about a mortar team from a different unit in Bakhmut. They say that they can be in one position for a day or two but that it depends - Russian artillery can respond quickly but it isn't strong or accurate. And as per the hromadske video, it also depends on Ukraine maintaining a constant supply of drones because they are still losing them regularly.

 

Drones are an expendable munition, I might put that in my sig.

 

[chrisl]

42 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Here's another video about a mortar team from a different unit in Bakhmut. They say that they can be in one position for a day or two but that it depends - Russian artillery can respond quickly but it isn't strong or accurate. And as per the hromadske video, it also depends on Ukraine maintaining a constant supply of drones because they are still losing them regularly.

 

Those guys need shotguns for when the drones show up to spot them, it's basically duck hunting.

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, that's part of it for SOME empires that fell.  Though it is a bit of a chicken and egg situation.  For much of the British Empire its government was technically democratic.  However, the ruling elites more-or-less ran the country and they were more-or-less in favor of imperialism.  Lots of reasons for that, but economic benefits were foremost.  So, on its own, democracy was actively supporting imperialism, not opposing it.

However, as the problems of empire abroad caused difficulties at home, other forces began to have more sway within the government.  Namely those who did not receive enough direct benefits from the imperial system began to question its value.  As the people in the foreign lands caused increasing trouble for the empire, more sacrifices were required of the British people.  Again, largely from those who did not see a benefit from continuing on with imperialist policy.  Military defeats became more regular and costly over time, which furthered the change in attitude towards maintaining the imperial system.  That eventually led to shifts in political power and that led to the decline of empire.

Something similar played out in France, with the military defeats in Algeria and Indochina causing people to say "enough is enough".  Belgium and The Netherlands had similar experiences.  Others, like Italy and Germany, lost their colonies through defeats and then themselves were defeated because of expansionist policies.  Japan, of course, had its own lessons on why it should stay closer to home.  Still others were kicked out of the empire game so long ago that their peoples decided not to try and get back into the game.

Democracy at home, natural or imposed upon it, certainly helped with the transition away from imperialism, but the common element really is repeated military defeats and the costs of keeping angry people under thumb.  Without that I don't think the appetite for imperialism would have gone away as quickly or (in some cases) peacefully.

Steve

But that still underlines my first point- democratic societies can adjust, its systemic to the concept. Autocratic systems find it extremely hard to do so, also systemically. Repeated military defeats will stress any society, with democratic ones better able to release the pressure and shift form/priorities. They are also able to shift priorities without military disaster, often avoiding the geopolitical pitfalls that autocratic societies often back themselves into.

WRT Russia, I'm deeply skeptical that any replacement system, arrangement of regions, coalitions, whatever will be democratic in nature, or if starting out so will last very long in that formatting.

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, chrisl said:

Those guys need shotguns for when the drones show up to spot them, it's basically duck hunting.

For small quadcopters (flit and hover), fully agreed, but don't the Orlans referenced in the video loiter out of effective shotgun range?  More like a remote control kit airplane.

https://www.flightglobal.com/military-uavs/russias-workhorse-orlan-10-uav-relies-on-western-technologies/151449.article

[LongLeftFlank]

13 hours ago, Haiduk said:

In recent days, Russians, probably preparing to offensive, began to make in hidden way passages in own minefields and to remove our minefields on section Dvorichna - Lyman Pershyi. For this were involved units of 30th engineer-sapper regiment of 6th CAA of Western military district. 

In area of Tavilzhanka village deployed 2 BTGs of 138th motor-rifle brigade, including assault units "Storm". In area of Vilshana village, were concentrated also 2 BTGs of 25th mech. brigade. Both 138th and 25th belong to 6th CAA of Western military district.

Kill the sappers. (Nothing personal)

Another good across-the-hill analysis thread from UA officer Tatarigami here:

....You know, like that bad dream Gerasimov keeps having, where he has found some trained artillerymen but instead they get thrown into pointless infantry assaults entirely unsupported by, oh, ARTILLERY?

 

 

Edited March 12, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

On 3/10/2023 at 7:04 PM, LongLeftFlank said:

1.  The rocky road to Bakhmut

 

Some more grumbling about Gen. Syrski (DefMon, who doesn't like him, is translating the UA grognard). Is he Gneisenau or Schörner?

...or is it yet more BS, egging on the Ivans to keep sticking their ****s in the blender?

....

Umm, that's not good.

 

 

Edited March 12, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Kinophile]

https://www.google.com/maps/@48.5927223,37.996186,3a,68.6y,169.05h,68.18t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipOm-n4gee_mg8oTcc3uIl0aNBYz-dcde9W7f9y8!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipOm-n4gee_mg8oTcc3uIl0aNBYz-dcde9W7f9y8%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi0-ya240-ro0-fo100!7i8192!8i4096!5m1!1e4

Superb bird's eye (NOT satellite or aerial) view of Bakhmut. Drone cpature, about 100m up, 360 degs.

You can see the huge difference in urban landscape from the East side of Bakhmut (low villages, as @Grigbnoted) versus the much dense, heavier and taller urban terrain on the west side. The Bakhmut river is pretty minor and not a continuous barrier. Considering the Ivan has paid staggering losses for essentially low-tier light urban suburbs, and took them months to fight through, how much will they pay to get to the city center?

Im betting its operationally significant, where they've burnt out the first wave of their "winter" offensive and now face losing the second in the mince-meat maker west of Bakhmut.

Edited March 12, 2023 by Kinophile

[Butschi]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Absolutely agree.  A couple of days might have passed without anybody doing much of anything out of fear, but enough time has gone by that something would have leaked out to confirm.  However, the nature of strongmen like Kadyrov is that he's going to need to make an appearance.  Not doing so will, de facto, make people think the rumors are true.  It is possible that Kadyrov is sick, but didn't go to Germany, and the Ukrainians are trolling him.

At present all we know is the specialized hospital plane went from Germany to Moscow and back to Germany.  Someone important was on that flight, of that there should be no doubts.  However, the early rumors that it was a sick oligarch is more likely.  Rich and powerful enough to get the flight arranged for, but not someone who would be missed from the public eye for a few weeks.

Steve

I read an article on nordbayern.de (yeah, it doesn't get much more regional than that, so make of it what you will) that according to the spokesperson of Nuremberg Airport, the return flight (Moscow -> Nuremberg) was empty, i.e. crew only.

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

You know, like that bad dream Gerasimov keeps having, where he has found some trained artillerymen but instead they get thrown into pointless infantry assaults entirely unsupported by, oh, ARTILLERY?

 

Additional detail: these aggrieved gunners are from Moscow area....

 

 

[billbindc]

7 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

And another CSIS alum has totally lost it too.

First the 'UN-monitored plebiscites' brainstorm that made Luttwak persona non grata in Kyiv, and now this....

The most charitable read on this is that he's concern trolling, to see if he can get Russia to actually TRY this, hoping nobody at Stavka looks at a map.

...or that none of the hostile nations nearby on all 3 sides takes any notice of the troop buildup.

Luttvak is an absolute clown who isn't taken very seriously by anybody. Great at marketing himself though.

[Holien]

Just a thought on the videos that we see of Russian protest. We perhaps should see this as a positive in  that they are “brave” enough to protest under the banner of Patriotism to save themselves from a visit at night…

 

Perhaps that is all we can hope that they (Russians) know it is a meat grinder and the only way they feel safe to protest…

That was my thought when I saw the tank crew video in the crater it was a safe way to show they were alive but drape it in Patriotism to save a beating when they get back to base....

 

[Haiduk]

FPV view of UKR assault group, following behind BMP-1 in attack on RUS positions. Some dead and surrendered Russians at the end.

 

[Lethaface]

14 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Not for lack of trying on the Polish side. Maybe a quarter of historical fiction books ever written in Polish would be about that era, including the 3 most popular ones. Cultural barrier does not let them permeate to the West, though, whereas the choice of bad guys limits the sales to the East. Maybe those about fighting Turks or Swedes could get exported.

Done properly I don't see a cultural barrier for medieval history fiction. Of course references to all kind of unknown persons or events don't help. 
Also the subject is probably quite a niche here now, probably more than in Eastern Europe. 

Edited March 12, 2023 by Lethaface

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Some more grumbling about Gen. Syrski (DefMon, who doesn't like him, is translating the UA grognard). Is he Gneisenau or Schörner?

The tweet of this soldier of 93rd mech.brigade yesterday summoned sharp discussion. I've read very contraversal opinions about Syrskiy from different servecemen, so it's hard to say where the true and where is biased opinion.

Followers of Poroshenko (especially fanatics) a-priory believe that Yermak and Zelenskiy make PR for Syrskiy and plot intrigues against Zaluzhnyi, so their opinion about Syrskiy is very negative. More clinical fanatics of Poroshenko believe that "evil FSB agent" Yermak (who is real ruler of Ukraine) and "traitor and stupid clown" Zelenskiy put a task for his "pocket general" Syrskiy to hold Bakhmut as long as possible, continously sending there new and new reinforcements in order to kill as much UKR soldiers as possible, that will lead to disaster and panic moods in society with demands of negotiataions and THEN, at last, Zelenskiy will sign capitulation and hand over Ukraine in hands of Moscow. Because as if only Zaluzhyi, army and a will of UKR society to fight interfere to do this for them (Yermak and Zelenskiy) and they have been forced to portray a patriots. This is just you all here will not have illusions about "united UKR society". 

What more objective issues for Operative Comamnd "East", defending Donbas and leading by Syrskiy (who also has a duty of Ground Forces Commander) - high-command level to this time didn't adopt to Wagner tactics and even didn't want to do this. They still stick mostly to passive defense with damned micromanadgment, limiting initiative of lower level commandders. They also didn't solve a problem with heavy infantry weapon, especially mortars, and now many of UKR soldiers ask even where they can get OG-7 FRAG projectiles for RPG-7, because it turned out in defficite. Artillery support and especially counter-batetry fire is insufficient because of lack of artillery and often lack of ammunitions. Many soldiers have enough good opinion about Syrskiy for Kyiv and Balakliya operations, but also many consider him as "talentless Soviet-school butcher, who just in favor in President's Office" and his role in Balakliya operation is artificlally overpriced for PR purposes 

Edited March 12, 2023 by Haiduk