How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

10 minutes ago, hcrof said:

While I agree with the above, I will also point out that rates of fire for mortars can be extremely high so maybe they genuinely blew through all available ammo? 

Here is recent Mashovets comment:

Quote

Q: What, in your opinion, is the reason that we have not established the manufacturing of mortars, which are sorely missing at the front, throughout the year of the war?

- In my perspective, this is a complicated problem, ranging from military-political leadership and military command miscalculations to technology and industrial issues, as well as [current] resource provision (mainly in the sphere of determining priorities).

Simply put, some did not anticipate and did not estimate, while others were unable and incapable. By the way, we're in a similar situation, but not just with mortars...
Of course, there are individual persons at specific positions and with certain surnames behind these issues...

 

[Astrophel]

48 minutes ago, Grigb said:

It appears that relevant Western military agencies do not completely comprehend the situation, which is unfortunate because the necessity for mortars was obvious back in summer 22.

My compliments for your forward thinking.  Personally I could not have imagined the Imphal madness with russians attacking artillery with 50 cm long entrenching tools and actually carrying out the orders to effectively commit hari-kiri, suicide, or whatever word Dugin has conceived for this madness.  I was expecting russians, being citizens of the modern world, to refuse such orders.  The truth revealed is that most russians are not living in the modern world.

Ukraine is reduced to fighting this war on russian terms - the war of brutality and attrition in which success is measured in metres per day.  I wake every morning hoping for a paradigm shift.  

Hopefully the historians will have their turn after a Ukrainian victory and then I suspect the West will be criticised for timidity rather than the guy who did not order enough mortars.  

Thank god for Biden I sometimes think, but then reflect that he was instrumental in rejecting the first proper democratic election in Iraq and endorsing Nouri al-Maliki the man who was NOT democratically chosen - "our guy" Biden said in a tone reminiscent of the 1970s.  And then the tragedy really got going.

Ukraine has to avoid being a footnote in history.  They need to continue to trust their own judgement and the courage of their own people and I hope and trust they will win through.  The west should do everything because fundamentally Ukraine is fighting for western values in a world where too many countries are on the dark side.

Enough of my opinions.  I'll stick to facts next time I post.

Edited March 6, 2023 by Astrophel
spelling and emphasis

[Grigb]

31 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

Having sad that, I have exactly zero knowledge of the Russian language. There may be a tinge of desperation that goes unnoticed.

RU culture is essentially a gopnik macho culture - you are supposed to dominate your victim without offering anything. Any offer/suggestion to victim signals that you are not exactly in control of the situation. What Prig did was a big No-No but he did it anyway.

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

there is specific context that confirms this rumor

By definition, confirmed rumor isn't rumor, or is it?

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

There are rumors. And there are my rumors. That's two different kinds of rumors.

Said every yellow press reporter ever. Sorry, couldn't resist.

[LongLeftFlank]

ACHTUNG! this is RU TV footage (posted by pro-UKR source), and there is some dispute over which army this actually is (some folks swear they see a Z on one wreck). But the shellfire is hellishly intense, and concentrated.

P.S. One would think however, that since the Russians now seem to control the area of this battle, there would be all kinds of gruesome closeups, trumpeting Wagner's massacre of hohols...

Edited March 6, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Haiduk]

59 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

ACHTUNG! this is RU TV footage (posted by pro-UKR source), and there is some dispute over which army this actually is (some folks swear they see a Z on one wreck). But the shellfire is hellishly intense, and concentrated

 

 

Probrbly this could be about this:

On LostArmor told UKR troops had an attempt of counter attack at the morning on 4th of March. Attacking force - 3 tanks and 10-12 light arnmor. Attack was repelled, UKR lost one tank (other one was damaged, but could retreat) and "about half of light armor", personnel losses they assessed in 20-30 men. Own claimed losses - destroyed tank, 2KIA (both tankers, driver has survived), 8 WIA. 

Probably from Ukr side participated 4th National Guard Rapid reaction brigade - at least abandoned BMP-1 was spotted with digits 3018 (4th brigade has digital code m/u 3018) 5шр (5th assault company)

 

Edited March 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[_Morpheus_]

`There is only one kind of good russians ...`
 

 

[Kinophile]

8 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

Would you accept the best estimate of the current NATO commander?

 

 

 

 

8 hours ago, Ts4EVER said:

I think you are talking about different things, namely if the casualties are per month or overall.

Exactly. But in fairness,  my quote of 10k in Jan is quite possibly far off,  and Feb for sure it's possible to hit 20k total for RUS. 

But 100k in a month is essentially 33% of the Russian expeditionary force and basically the immediate  end of the war that very month. I don't see any ability on the part of the ZSU to inflict that level in that timeframe. Of course,  an actual, Real(tm)  collapse of the AFRF could generate some crazy figures  (I highly doubt the ZSU would sit back and just let the collapse unfold) 

[Haiduk]

Many Russian so-called liberals claim "Russian soldiers are the same victims of Putin's regime. Only Putin and his nearest retinue can be responsible for war and warcrimes!"

When I've seen such videos, I think, that "rules of war waging" and different conventions suitable only for conflicts between civilized countries. When the war becomes "existantional" with intentions to eliminate the state and its active part of nation completely, and other just assimilate or expell, there is can not be any "conventions". What conventions you can have with non-humans, whith wild orc horde? Russia already for long time isn't a country of "big Russian culture and Russian humanism". Now this is not a nation of Tolstoy and Chaikovskiy. This is nation of films about "criminal romantic", nation of trash music and demonstratively debauched show-business, nation of cult of war and death via dozens of films about different wars, staging each year,  this is a nation who willingly eating a hate and war from TV, and then implementing this among own society as humilitation, violence, reigning of semi-criminal order in all spheres of public life. Agrressive begagrs and apathetic "mid calss", who have the same feature - feel of own supremacy above all other people. This evil empire must go into oblivion. 

PS: ninjad by _Morpheus_

 

 

Edited March 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[kraze]

On the contrary. This is a nation of Tolstoy and Chaikovsky. Both hated Ukrainians just as much as any other russian. I just have no idea what "humanism" in russian culture anyone even means. All their literature is full of spite and disregard for human life. It's a very dehumanizing culture and this is just a yet another fruit of it.

Humanistic cultures produce humans not russians.

Edited March 6, 2023 by kraze

[Beleg85]

https://www.president.gov.ua/news/volodimir-zelenskij-proviv-zasidannya-stavki-verhovnogo-golo-81461

Zhelensky's official statement that after meeting general Zaluzhny and Sirsky requested to continue defensive operations in Bakhmut and strengthen the defenders. Not the first such, but In light of situation there and issues with validity of strategy of holding the city, it bears special meaning. It seems they are very keen on keeping evey inch.

[Haiduk]

24 minutes ago, kraze said:

This is a nation of Tolstoy and Chaikovsky. Both hated Ukrainians

Examples? Especially Chaikovskiy %). They were people of own time. Cancelling of Russian classics for "ukrainophobia" is the same sh...t like cancelling of J.Washigton and A.Linkoln by idiotic leftists for "racism". 

If we cancel old Russian culture for anti-Ukrainism, well, let cancel also Polish writer Henryk Sienkiewich for his "By fire and sword" - pure anti-ukrainian thing, and director Hofman - who filmed a movie.

We can cancel Chaikovskiy, but we can't cancel his contribution in world culture. So, why? In WWII also all German was under taboo. German philosophers, writers, musicians. This is just emotions of war. We must cancel all existing in Russian culture, who actively inspired the war, who sow a dirt and sh..t on brains and souls like Mikhalkov, Morgenshtern or Skabeyeva, but not Mendeleyev or Pushkin or to prohibit classical comedy movies of Haidai. Though, of course, we don't need parks of Pushkin and streets of Pushkin in each town and city. 

Edited March 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Modernized version of Maxim MG

 

[Grigb]

19 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

https://www.president.gov.ua/news/volodimir-zelenskij-proviv-zasidannya-stavki-verhovnogo-golo-81461

Zhelensky's official statement that after meeting general Zaluzhny and Sirsky requested to continue defensive operations in Bakhmut and strengthen the defenders. Not the first such, but In light of situation there and issues with validity of strategy of holding the city, it bears special meaning. It seems they are very keen on keeping evey inch.

According to some UKR sources in last several days RU ran out of convenient avenues of assault. Also, they made assault front much smaller allowing UKR to concentrate arty and making UKR defense much more effective. 

[Seminole]

14 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

If the war is illegal, then the acts committed by the people waging that war are also illegal.  Legal culpability is not limited to the head of state or senior leaders.  Doesn't matter if it is carpet bombing an entire city or killing a single armed civilian.  Just like it is illegal for me to break into a department store and everything I do inside is subject to additional criminal charges.  It doesn't matter if I take a candy bar or burn the place down, everything done is subject to legal scrutiny.

Whether this is enforced by a country or International Courts is completely irrelevant to the principles involved.

Legal principles are absurd?  Interesting concept.

Steve

You don’t think it’s absurd to label George Bush and everyone that followed his orders to illegally invade Panama as war criminals?

Interesting concept.  Bush is dead, but there are still thousands alive, do you think we should prosecute them according to your principles?  Or would that be absurd?

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/06/world/europe/ukraine-bakhmut-battle.html

Its a hard fight, but I trust the AFU General Staff is doing the math.

[Haiduk]

From serviceman who fights somewhere near Bakhmut (or have a firm source from there)

Bakhmut - nobody withdraws nothing. All movements according to the plan. The road to Sloviansk is mopped-up, it became calmer. Eastern direction [eastern part of city] is counter-attacking continuously, we have slightly positional successes. It's all so far.

Edited March 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Examples? Especially Chaikovskiy %). They were people of own time. Cancelling of Russian classics for "ukrainophobia" is the same sh...t like cancelling of J.Washigton and A.Linkoln by idiotic leftists for "racism". 

If we cancel old Russian culture for anti-Ukrainism, well, let cancel also Polish writer Henryk Sienkiewich for his "By fire and sword" - pure anti-ukrainian thing, and director Hofman - who filmed a movie.

We can cancel Chaikovskiy, but we can't cancel his contribution in world culture. So, why? In WWII also all German was under taboo. German philosophers, writers, musicians. This is just emotions of war. We must cancel all existing in Russian culture, who actively inspired the war, who sow a dirt and sh..t on brains and souls like Morgenshtern or Skabeyeva, but not Mendeleyev or Pushkin. Though, of course, we don't need parks of Pushkin and streets of Pushing in each town and city. 

Yup, part of emotions of war.

Worth to note that nor Sienkiewicz was anti-Ukrainian, not the Hofman certainly was. You have good and bad characters on both sides in "With Fire and Sword", and Sienkiewicz portrayed Zaporozhian Cossacks roughly how primary sources showed them (it was still crude "warrior democracy" by XVII cent. with very brutal customs, albeit  slowly maturing into own statehood). The film have many great Ukrainian actors like Bohdan Stupka (kudos for his role) or Ruslana Pysanka that became popular here, and while it generally shows naively romanticized PLC perspective, it's message is not anti-Ukrainian at all. It's rather about "lost chances" of brotherly conflict and unability to accept Cossacks as legitimate part of Commonwealth. What I don't like about the book and movie is Jeremi Wiśniowiecki, who was talented commander, but needlesly cruel doushbag in general, brutalizing war even more and inflamating already tense situation there. Also worth to remember Sienkiewicz in XIX cent. couldn't write directly who was ultimate enemy...Muscovy.

*This is not like primitively anti-Polish paramovie like "Taras Bulba", if we duel on weak book adaptations.

[akd]

15 minutes ago, Seminole said:

You don’t think it’s absurd to label George Bush and everyone that followed his orders to illegally invade Panama as war criminals?

Interesting concept.  Bush is dead, but there are still thousands alive, do you think we should prosecute them according to your principles?  Or would that be absurd?

I guess Panama can prosecute them if they can get custody of said “war criminals” in a way that the US can do nothing about. (hint: they can’t.)

[The_Capt]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

In all situations any state with nukes (power generation and weaponry) will try to leverage them to their advantage.  How that plays out depends on the scenario, but generally I don't expect them to be used.  Mutually assured destruction applies to them just as much as it does between existing actors now.  There's far more value in nukes as a bargaining chip.

With you right up to here.  We only have to be wrong once and having seen the Yugoslav scenario up close and personal, we can pretty much toss “rational” out the window as a foundation of calculus.  Back to my previous point - so what are we doing to engineer the Russian defeat we want?

[Seminole]

4 minutes ago, akd said:

I guess Panama can prosecute them if they can get custody of said “war criminals” in a way that the US can do nothing about. (hint: they can’t.)

The ‘rules based order’ being what it is…

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yup, part of emotions of war.

Worth to note that nor Sienkiewicz was anti-Ukrainian, not the Hofman certainly was. You have good and bad characters on both sides in "With Fire and Sword", and Sienkiewicz portrayed Zaporozhian Cossacks roughly how primary sources showed them (it was still crude "warrior democracy" by XVII cent. with very brutal customs, albeit  slowly maturing into own statehood). The film have many great Ukrainian actors like Bohdan Stupka (kudos for his role) or Ruslana Pysanka that became popular here, and while it generally shows naively romanticized PLC perspective, it's message is not anti-Ukrainian at all. It's rather about "lost chances" of brotherly conflict and unability to accept Cossacks as legitimate part of Commonwealth. What I don't like about the book and movie is Jeremi Wiśniowiecki, who was talented commander, but needlesly cruel doushbag in general, brutalizing war even more and inflamating already tense situation there. Also worth to remember Sienkiewicz in XIX cent. couldn't write directly who was ultimate enemy...Muscovy.

*This is not like primitively anti-Polish paramovie like "Taras Bulba", if we duel on weak book adaptations.

I like "By fire and sword" of Hofman (though he has "flattened" enough from Sienkiewich's narratives to balance the story) - this film was a starting point to revise my point of view on the role of Ukraine in PLC and some on Khmelnitskiy's uprising. 

In USSR time there was unspoken "gentleman agreement" between Polish and USSR movie-makers. Poles don't stage "By fire and sword", Soviets don't stage "Taras Bulba" %) Though latter has two terrible films in historical plan, filmed in France and USA %) 

[akd]

4 minutes ago, Seminole said:

The ‘rules based order’ being what it is…

I am fine with “rules-based order” being applied to Russian illegal war in instances when it can and Russia is powerless to stop it even if it hasn’t fully solved problem of past US illegal warfare.

Edited March 6, 2023 by akd

[kevinkin]

Detailed operational summary writer by a recent convert:

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2023/03/06/fortress_bakhmut_885482.html

Reading between the lines, once/if the UA withdrawals from Bathmat, this might be a direct sign the clock has started counting down to a UA summer offensive. If meaning perhaps Bathmat could become a hotbed of a local insurgency while mechanized formations rumble to the north and south. It would be the bravest left behind to do that fighting. 

By applying pressure everywhere, it can disperse the forces Ukraine needs to stage a breakthrough operation and exploit it later this year.  Assaults on Bakhmut again are crucial to this approach. Holding Bakhmut has cost Ukraine significant manpower, meaning the longer Ukraine commits to holding the city, and Siversk to the north of it, the harder it becomes for Ukraine to accumulate reserves.

The issue with Russia’s approach is that Ukraine has, despite breathless Western reporting to the contrary, countered it rather well.  Ukraine has continued its deep strike campaign into the Russian rear, hitting ammunition depots and command and control nodes with Western-provided rocket artillery.  It has also brought several its traditional mechanized brigades off-line, rotating in National Guard and Territorial Defense Force (TDF) units.  The Ukrainian National Guard and TDF are not well equipped for mechanized maneuver warfare.  But many of the soldiers in these units saw combat during the 2014-2022 Donbas War, giving them extensive experience in trench warfare and urban defense.  These soldiers, then, with artillery support, are precisely the units needed to confront Russia in grinding close combat.

In turn, the West must keep its equipment deliveries coming apace.  Tanks and armored vehicles are critical, along with ammunition plentiful enough to support and offensive and ground-based air defense systems to protect Ukraine’s cities and free up mobile anti-air units to support armored spearheads. War does not abide by a consistent rhythm. But it does contain a strategic logic, identifiable to the observer. Every sign points to Ukrainian success – if the West does not crack.

[Beleg85]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Though latter has two terrible films in historical plan, filmed in France and USA %) 

Oh yeah, I think Yul Brynner was in one, it was made by Italians if I remember. That was terrible movie experience.

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I like "By fire and sword" of Hofman (though he has "flattened" enough from Sienkiewich's narratives to balance the story) - this film was a starting point to revise my point of view on the role of Ukraine in PLC and some on Khmelnitskiy's uprising. 

Yup, book specifically failed to for example descibe complex world of Kyiv citizenry- which was much more influential culturally than Muscovy at that time.

I guess we simply shouldn't expect much from naivelly romantic writers from XIX cent. from any nation.

Edited March 6, 2023 by Beleg85