How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

News about Bakhmut from M.Lachowski:

-Situation is slowly deteriorating, but there are lot of Russian psyops (like last Prigozhin appeal) aimed at causing panic among defenders

- UA still firmly holds centre and even some positions beyond Bakhmutka river.

-Khromove  bridge was blown up by Russian shell hiting previously gathered exposives, not intentional (info from 2 local Ukrainian soldiers)

-there are still field roads being used by defenders. The city will fall sooner than later, for now it is in UA hands

-Situation highly dynamic, so info may be not fresh after several hours

 

Also, yesterday raid by RVC which raised histeria almost to the level of Bieslan, predictably ended in big nothing. RiA Novosti published today a clip of a car with 2 dead people inside, but it is more than likely they would stage this (not the first time). Meanwhile, Russian propagandists, temporarly without instructions from Kremlin, invented a story of a schoolbus full of children being blown. Which truned into a car with a small girl killed. Which turned into a boy, Fedor, who was 10 or maybe 11 years old being shot to death by bloody mercenaries but miracoulously survived. Tomorrow it will came out probably he managed to blown up a Lepoard full of Polish mercenaries of Afro-American descent before evacuation.

 

 

Edited March 3, 2023 by Beleg85

[sburke]

Russians panic on social media after overnight explosion near Moscow (yahoo.com)

Seems Russians are getting a little jumpy.
 

Quote

 

Later, eyewitnesses began posting videos of a fire apparently near where the explosion occurred.

The powerful blast, which happened at 21:46 local time on March 2, was also recorded by several nearby surveillance cameras.  Russian authorities have denied that any incident took place, while local residents were in a state of panic.

Russian media said variously that a drone had exploded in the air, the cause of the explosion was unknown, or that the blast had been the sound of a MiG fighter jet breaking the sound barrier over the town.

 

 

 

[Vet 0369]

On 3/2/2023 at 5:14 AM, Grigb said:

 

Welcome back! We have sorely missed you!

[Vanir Ausf B]

7 hours ago, Holien said:

a funnier JonS

Impossible.

[Harmon Rabb]

Lavrov the clown making people laugh with his nonsensical comments.

[dan/california]

Quote

 

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1rRKs40IEbGRsV0Fhky25l5OkPJ_vUvQ&ll=47.36998075396889%2C35.52133555745875&z=10

 

Map claims to show Russian field fortifications. It is the best layout I have seen if it is accurate. There some gaps in there lines. I am sort of assuming they ground that is so marshy or difficult they didn't feel the need. Some if this in more or less the same place I ws post street view shots of a day or three ago.

 

Edit: Ninjaed by Mr Raab...

 

Edited March 3, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=15&lat=47.40783&lng=35.35463&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2023-01-11T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2023-01-11T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=8-NDSI&gain=1.4&demSource3D="MAPZEN"

 

 

The map I posted above actually links to, admittedly low quality, satellite imagery of every listed fortification. This may be the most detailed thing available to the general public. You can't really make out vehicles, but most of the trenchlines are pretty clear. It helps to play with tabs for different false colors and wave lengths. There is more than enough here for scenario design, at least of the terrain. Match it up with Jomni's estimation of what units are where, and it might be possible to actually understand what is going on.

[sburke]

Prigozhin pretends to be in Bakhmut, is actually in village seven kilometers away (yahoo.com)

to be honest I was surprised he was even within 7km of the front.

[kevinkin]

Show / sign of confidence:

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-weapons-russia-biden-war-0e52e87ade3d2300da8be14a3ebcc9ff

The Armored Vehicle Launched Bridge is a portable, 60-foot (18-meter) folding metal bridge that is carried on top of a tank body. Providing that system now could make it easier for Ukrainian troops to cross rivers to get to Russian forces.

More of the equipment: 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/former-m60-tanks-fitted-with-folding-bridges-are-headed-for-ukraine

Sending the M60 AVLBs to Ukraine also makes good sense because of the more specific nature of the conflict there. While armored bridge layers are most often associated with crossing narrow waterways, like canals and small rivers, they can also be used to help get heavy equipment across areas full of other obstacles, including trenches, large craters, and soft, muddy ground.

Been mentioning the shell holed landscape as a factor in operations for a while now. Not sure if this is a force multiplier, but close enough. Still not a break-in enabler. I think they might be too few and vulnerable. More of a way to maintain momentum and have friendly AFV appear where the enemy thinks they can't go. 

Edited March 3, 2023 by kevinkin

[DesertFox]

Mobiks...

 

 

[sross112]

8 hours ago, Lethaface said:

Thanks for this.
After reading the first paragraph in the article I looked up the author and he's a US journalist with imo, a political agenda, using selective sources to project a framing he wants to put forward. So I stopped reading it
Not that I'm saying all is going as fast as possible in Germany, I don't really know to be honest but probably nor does he.

How to wisely spend 100 Billion Euro out of the blue is not an easy task. Last few days I did hear rather clear language from Scholz / Germany and I understand he is on his way for a private meeting with Biden as we speak. So things are happening at least.

Way back there was talk about the procurement problems with the German Army. I think there might have also been a Perun video that outlined a lot of the difficulties because of a flawed system. The fact that even though money was made available there hasn't been anything to show for it up to this point is not surprising considering the messed up bureaucracy that has to be worked through there. 

It is surprising to me that NATO has so many players that have let their military so out of whack. As you and others pointed out, during the cold war every one pretty much had their mission and focused on that. I suppose nobody thought Russia would be the threat that they are to Europe now. The lack of coordination between NATO countries and militaries is still rather surprising as you would think they would have maintained better vision and cooperation over the years. 

I really do hope that the European nations figure out how to do a better job going forward. If China ever kicks anything off and the US is embroiled in a conflict in the Pacific they will pretty much be on their own defending Europe from Russia. Luckily Russia shouldn't be able to mount a credible threat for some time, but eventually they will be back. 

[Beleg85]

Well-made documentary about this war by Ukrainian journalist D.Komarov. Including interviews with top generals. ENG subs.

 

[FancyCat]

 

[chrisl]

I guess someone at the NYT is reading the thread - they published a response today to my specific criticism from yesterday that provided accurate context, as well (and a picture of an SPG firing where you can still see the shell in the air)

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/03/world/russia-ukraine-news/ukraine-bakhmut-russia?smid=url-share

[cesmonkey]

One could argue that these two items in the latest US aid package are designed to support a Ukrainian counter-offensive:

Quote

• Armored Vehicle Launched Bridges;
• Demolition munitions and equipment for obstacle clearing;

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3318337/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/02/world/europe/ukraine-us-wargames-germany.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

 

Quote

WIESBADEN, Germany — With winter almost behind them, senior American generals hosted Ukrainian military officials this week for a set of “tabletop” exercises designed to help Kyiv map out the next stage of its battle to reclaim territory from dug-in Russian troops.

At this point they have real world data on everything except Western IFVs/MBTs, yes? I would think they can put together a really fine grained simulation. There is even enough evidence of the Russians doing absolutely suicidal stuff they should be able to model that pretty well.

[Kinophile]

Ref Bahkmut... Well I know almost nothing about the real situation and I'm not military but.. The folks leading this defense are the same officer cadres that defeated Kyiv, retook Kherson, led the Kharkiv offensive, crushed the Siversky-Donets crossing,  etc.  They've fought the Ivan every inch of the Bakhmut AO so far without the defending forces falling apart, and any actual retreat seems like it'll be controlled and careful. 

My bet is on Ukraine. 

 

Edited March 4, 2023 by Kinophile

[Sojourner]

57 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

 

At this point they have real world data on everything except Western IFVs/MBTs, yes? I would think they can put together a really fine grained simulation. There is even enough evidence of the Russians doing absolutely suicidal stuff they should be able to model that pretty well.

Also reported by Reuters - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-hosts-war-games-ukraine-ahead-next-phase-russia-conflict-2023-03-02/

"The multi-day, table top exercises have been carried out at a war-gaming facility at a U.S. Army base in Wiesbaden, Germany, where the top U.S. military officer, Army General Mark Milley, visited on Thursday.

U.S. officials declined to talk through the potential battlefield scenarios that Ukrainian military staff were examining during the drills, which involve thought exercises to evaluate potential military courses of action."

Hmmm, anyone else noticed that Steve @Battlefront.com has been scarce around here lately?

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/urban-warfare-project/id1490714950?i=1000602639597

I bought the book before the podcast was over. It has a ton of stuff related to CM scale fights. Indeed one of the authors theories is that the size of modern militaries means urban warfare  can't be anything else. More when I have had time to read it.

 

Quote

https://www.amazon.com/Urban-Warfare-Twenty-First-Century-Anthony-ebook/dp/B098ZX66TY/ref=sr_1_1?crid=29A7NX88M6F8M&keywords=urban+warfare+in+the+twenty-first+century&qid=1677897453&s=books&sprefix=urban+warfare+in+%2Cstripbooks%2C190&sr=1-1

 

Edited March 4, 2023 by dan/california

[Bil Hardenberger]

1 hour ago, Sojourner said:

Also reported by Reuters - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-hosts-war-games-ukraine-ahead-next-phase-russia-conflict-2023-03-02/

"The multi-day, table top exercises have been carried out at a war-gaming facility at a U.S. Army base in Wiesbaden, Germany, where the top U.S. military officer, Army General Mark Milley, visited on Thursday.

U.S. officials declined to talk through the potential battlefield scenarios that Ukrainian military staff were examining during the drills, which involve thought exercises to evaluate potential military courses of action."

Sounds to me that they ran the Ukrainians through a bunch of Tactical Decision Games (TDG), a method of which I thoroughly support.

From the article:

Quote

U.S. officials declined to talk through the potential battlefield scenarios that Ukrainian military staff were examining during the drills, which involve thought exercises to evaluate potential military courses of action.

Bil

[Kinophile]

29 minutes ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

Sounds to me that they ran the Ukrainians through a bunch of Tactical Decision Games (TDG), a method of which I thoroughly support.

From the article:

Bil

They did this too just before Kharkiv  (for sure)  and Kherson (I think). 

[Kinophile]

From ISW,  ref Bryan's raid:

Quote

State-run media outlet RT amplified a milblogger claim that the Russian Volunteer Corps has indirect affiliations with the UK via the Azov Regiment and accused the UK of involvement. 

 

"They seek him here, they seek him there, 
Those Ruskies seek him everywhere! 
Is he in heaven or is he in Wimbledon? 
That demned elusive Boris Johnson! 

[Harmon Rabb]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

From ISW,  ref Bryan's raid:

 

"They seek him here, they seek him there, 
Those Ruskies seek him everywhere! 
Is he in heaven or is he in Wimbledon? 
That demned elusive Boris Johnson! 

Boris Johnson interested in applying for post of NATO Secretary-General (euroweeklynews.com)

That Boris Johnson is everywhere.

Be afraid Putin be very afraid! 

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

One could argue that these two items in the latest US aid package are designed to support a Ukrainian counter-offensive:

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3318337/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

Unclear what sort of clearing equipment they are talking about.  Keep an eye out for explosive breaching equipment, if they are going that way they are definitely lining up for a major push-back.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mine-clearing_line_charge

[kevinkin]

All that's been mentioned in the news are M60 AVLBs. What is the training cycle for engineering equipment of this sort? Could be more about coordination with all arms than just plug and play there is a bridge.