How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

Russia may yet manage to bury Bakmuht in their own dead. I don't think there is going to be much of an exploitation phase though.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Correct, however there's two things to keep in mind.  First, we don't really know how bad things are inside of Russia right niw and nobody knows how bad they will get within the next year or two.  Second, a previously successful autocracy always looks like it will continue on forever.  Until, that is, it collapses. 

There are definitely exceptions to the collapse inevitability, however they tend to be those that are less complex.  Especially in terms of culture, religion, and ethnicity.  The also tend to avoid collapse because the autocrat takes care to line up the successor before he becomes incapacitated.  The two best examples of all of this are North Korea and Communist Cuba.

I remember when iron curtain was falling thinking that Coucescu in Romania could never fall, he had such tight control -- then bamm! -- it seemed like it all flipped nearly overnight.  

Interesting point on how succession helps stabilize things.  In RU, everyone w a shot at the throne has to be thinking they could end up in charge, which means they might be working behind the scenes to destabilize.

[billbindc]

27 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Right.  Weird signals coming out of their economy.  Putin is starting to sound desperate in his narratives.  I am thinking he is running out of runway.  But I guess we will see.

The tell will be when Putin starts to say that he needs to remain in power to keep more radical actors at bay. 

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

The tell will be when Putin starts to say that he needs to remain in power to keep more radical actors at bay. 

I think the guy might be caught between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea at this point.  Radicals on one side you need to keep you in power, and the Russian population outside of Moscow on the other.  All balanced on an autocratic framework of plate spinning - isn't this the perennial Russian political dilemma?

[Der Zeitgeist]

12 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The tell will be when Putin starts to say that he needs to remain in power to keep more radical actors at bay. 

Good thing he can just arrest them and hand them over as war criminals to buy his way back into the international community. 

Edited February 27, 2023 by Der Zeitgeist

[Eddy]

A response from Mick Ryan regarding the reports of the Russians modifying their assault tactics

Basically, he's comparing it to the German Stormtroopers of 1918 and positing that without changes to the operational level it won't make that much of a big picture difference. If there is no capability to exploit, then 'chopping a hole' as Ludendorff called it will lead to nothing. And he doubts that RA will be able to create the capability as it's not just equipment that would be needed, but training, changes to doctrine etc, etc. which is difficult at the best of times, let alone in a war. And of course the Ukrainian have a say as well.

[sross112]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I think the guy might be caught between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea at this point.  Radicals on one side you need to keep you in power, and the Russian population outside of Moscow on the other.  All balanced on an autocratic framework of plate spinning - isn't this the perennial Russian political dilemma?

He really is in a pickle. I think the measure that he will regret forever will be the referendums in the occupied territories making them "Russia". If they hadn't done that they would have a lot more options and have at least a chance of cutting a peace deal with Ukraine. Ukraine may have settled for the Feb 22 borders in a peace deal but I can't imagine they will entertain any more than that. Now they have to either give up parts of "Russia", beat Ukraine or settle in for perpetual war. I don't think there is a way to sell giving up parts of "Russia". I don't think they can beat Ukraine. So that means perpetual war, and I don't think Russia can do it at this scale. 

The only play I see for Russia is to get a victory of some sort, claim all goals of the SMO are met, freeze the conflict, and try to get the rest of the world to pressure Ukraine into a ceasefire. This makes sense to me with their hyper-focus on Bakhmut. It has been the focus for months so they can't just stop now and admit defeat. They HAVE to win before they can stop offensive actions. All other actions can be construed as operations to draw forces away from there, but since they have focused so much on that location they need to see it through until the end. Maybe it also explains why Ukraine has invested so heavily in holding it. If they see it in this light it makes much more sense to do everything you can to not let Russia have a "win". 

I don't think there is a high percentage chance of it working but it could. By working through the UN with China and maybe India helping schmooz all the little members they could start getting UN resolutions for ceasefires. I don't doubt the continuing support of most of the western players, but how do they react against the UN? They built it, they've used it for their means, how could they now ignore it? Would the US have the testicular fortitude to veto? Others like @billbindc probably have better insight into this arena and hopefully can enlighten me on why this route wouldn't work. I would personally hate to see Russia get any kind of a win or even something they can sell to their people as a win. 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

Anybody know what the rant is about?

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1630248548674736128?s=20

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, Eddy said:

Basically, he's comparing it to the German Stormtroopers of 1918 and positing that without changes to the operational level it won't make that much of a big picture difference.

This is correct. It took the widespread integration of vehicles with the internal combustion engine to exploit tactical gaps in the Allied lines. Not ready in WW1. But in WW2, they brought German troops and supplies forward to critical points faster than the enemy could by foot, rail or horse. This is one key component of 'blitzkrieg". However, this could be defeated by strategic depth even by less mobile forces like the Soviets in 41-42. So even if the RA today can modify its tactics, it still has to maintain momentum into the strategic depth of sector they intend to capture. Fortunately, the RA lack the logistic robustness to do so and Ukraine has plenty of strategic depth to utilize in parrying offensives should they breakthrough.  

[Eddy]

15 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

However, this could be defeated by strategic depth

Good point. I hadn't even considered the strategic level as I don't think the RA will be able to do the learning at the operational level. Not necessarily because 'Russia sux' but because it is so difficult to do, especially while fighting a war. 

I recently re-read Dr Aimee Fox's Learning to Fight about how the British & Dominion armies went about learning in the FWW and the complexities of it - vertical vs horizontal, formal vs informal, Western front vs other fronts, exercise vs pamphlet etc. They had to try to overcome pre-war prejudices, snobbery between fronts (Western Front thought they had nothing to learn from other fronts), snobbery from British towards Canadian and Australian, traditional vs modern, learning the wrong lessons etc. They just about managed it but it took four years. And despite what can be garnered from Blackadder, those armies were open-minded, keen to learn organisations (well most of them). 

The long and short of it, I got from that book that learning on the job in a war is bloody difficult and complex. 

[sburke]

China accuses US of 'bullying' with new 'illegal' sanctions (yahoo.com)

Quote

The sanctions also hit the Chinese company Changsha Tianyi Space Science and Technology Research Institute Co. Ltd., also known as Spacety China, which has supplied Wagner Group affiliates with satellite imagery of Ukraine that support Wagner’s military operations there. A Luxembourg-based subsidiary of Spacety China was also targeted.

Cool, mess with their ISR

[danfrodo]

31 minutes ago, sburke said:

China accuses US of 'bullying' with new 'illegal' sanctions (yahoo.com)

Cool, mess with their ISR

yes, "bullying" so much worse than "enabling serial mass murder and child kidnapping and city destruction".

[Chibot Mk IX]

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

This is correct. It took the widespread integration of vehicles with the internal combustion engine to exploit tactical gaps in the Allied lines. Not ready in WW1. But in WW2, they brought German troops and supplies forward to critical points faster than the enemy could by foot, rail or horse. This is one key component of 'blitzkrieg". However, this could be defeated by strategic depth even by less mobile forces like the Soviets in 41-42. So even if the RA today can modify its tactics, it still has to maintain momentum into the strategic depth of sector they intend to capture. Fortunately, the RA lack the logistic robustness to do so and Ukraine has plenty of strategic depth to utilize in parrying offensives should they breakthrough.  

not to mentioned it is much more harder to exploit the holes today compare to 41-42. Back in 40s , you will have an unchallenged freedom of maneuver behind the enemy line after achieving the breakthrough. German just needs to defeat a Tank division (in early war) or a couple tank brigades (in mid war). By the end of the war, Soviets have a large truck fleet that can quickly ferry infantry formation to block the hole, although these infantry units have limited Anti-tank strength , combine with the armored force counter-attack, they can quickly stall the German's attack momentum. 

nowadays the defender can easily ferry mechanized troops to block the hole, and at tactical level, even a platoon of infantry with advance ATGM weapon can block the attacking side's advance for half a day. RA not only needs logistic support but also other stuff added into the equation. Something RA is unlikely to have any improvement in a short period of time, like suppress/destroy enemy C2, effectively counter artillery , Air interdiction etc.

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, Huba said:

New update from Mateusz Lachowski. He's not in Bakhmut itself, but nearby, and is in contact with soldiers in the city:
- UA recaptured parts of Jahidne in the yesterday's counterattack, overall UA situations has improved
- he has confirmed information that blowing up the dam was done to facilitate the counterattack
- there still is one road to the city that isn't blocked by the russians
- there is bloody fighting everywhere
- UA has to counterattack more, or withdraw from the city soon, this hasn't changed

 

I still wonder that UKR twitter, including soldiers, who in the Bakhmut keep complete silence about developments on the north.

Today's evening report of "Madyar" was even more "blured" than in previous two days. "Situation is very hard. Enemy continuosly conducts assaults from the north. We keep our positions."

[Chibot Mk IX]

On 2/24/2023 at 9:49 PM, danfrodo said:

I think China is just posturing.  They are playing RU for cheap oil, playing the US for concessions of some sort, while looking both troublesome and a source of conciliation.  It's all just Xi playing some cards. 

I do think, probably quite naively, that China doesn't actually want to see any chinese made suicide drones hitting UKR preschools anytime soon.  Some surveillance drones, sure. 

Dan ,

you are close to the truth. It is a posturing. However, the audience is neither Russia, US, EU nor any 3^rd world countries. It is targeting domestically, more specifically, to make great leader happy. Let him know that “Under your guidance we just create a proposal, and all the foreigners are listening to your wisdom.”

In Ministry of Foreign Affairs of PRC , after years of purge, the staff with professional training/experience have either been replaced or too timid to speak out the truth. They don’t do evaluation, questioning and planning anymore. All they know is to follow the “leader’s instructions” (aka , grasp the essence from leader’s word) .  I can talk more about this later,  that should also partially explain the root cause of “Wolf warrior diplomacy”. And very unfortunately, just like Ministry of Foreign Affairs, almost all Chinese government agencies are following the same path to abyss.

[danfrodo]

7 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Dan ,

you are close to the truth. It is a posturing. However, the audience is neither Russia, US, EU nor any 3^rd world countries. It is targeting domestically, more specifically, to make great leader happy. Let him know that “Under your guidance we just create a proposal, and all the foreigners are listening to your wisdom.”

In Ministry of Foreign Affairs of PRC , after years of purge, the staff with professional training/experience have either been replaced or too timid to speak out the truth. They don’t do evaluation, questioning and planning anymore. All they know is to follow the “leader’s instructions” (aka , grasp the essence from leader’s word) .  I can talk more about this later,  that should also partially explain the root cause of “Wolf warrior diplomacy”. And very unfortunately, just like Ministry of Foreign Affairs, almost all Chinese government agencies are following the same path to abyss.

Very enlightening, thx for sharing 

[sross112]

1 hour ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

not to mentioned it is much more harder to exploit the holes today compare to 41-42. Back in 40s , you will have an unchallenged freedom of maneuver behind the enemy line after achieving the breakthrough. German just needs to defeat a Tank division (in early war) or a couple tank brigades (in mid war). By the end of the war, Soviets have a large truck fleet that can quickly ferry infantry formation to block the hole, although these infantry units have limited Anti-tank strength , combine with the armored force counter-attack, they can quickly stall the German's attack momentum. 

nowadays the defender can easily ferry mechanized troops to block the hole, and at tactical level, even a platoon of infantry with advance ATGM weapon can block the attacking side's advance for half a day. RA not only needs logistic support but also other stuff added into the equation. Something RA is unlikely to have any improvement in a short period of time, like suppress/destroy enemy C2, effectively counter artillery , Air interdiction etc.

And in addition to all that, back then you had a much easier time hiding your mass behind your own lines. Now it seems as though if more than a platoon of RA congregate in the same place they eat a HIMARS. So somehow being able to concentrate the mass needed for the breakthrough, then the mass needed to exploit the breakthrough and the logistics to sustain it all need to be hidden from multi-spectrum ISR to avoid PGM breaking it all up before it even gets the chance to start. 

This modern war stuff is getting complicated!!  

[kraze]

On 2/26/2023 at 12:25 PM, womble said:

I don't disagree much here. I'm interested as to what you and other Ukrainians here think the logical progression of that approach looks like when applied to the Donbas and Crimea, should Ukraine actually achieve full reintegration of her internationally recognised borders. Some might say they're not worth getting back, being "poison pills" of resentment and resistance to Ukraine's full alignment with the Western Order. Others might have a more optimistic view that the hardcore anti-Kyiv element are mostly dead on the front lines, and the "don't care" brigade is worth including in the next Ukrainian census.

What are your thoughts, as citizens who'll get a vote when Zelensky eventually comes back from the negotiating table with a proposed settlement?

I doubt retaking the faux-"republic" part of Donbas may be worth it. After what was basically 9 years of Bucha there are hardly any Ukrainians left in there. Is it worth losing thousands of men to save a few dozen? I'm not sure.

Coal is a thing of the past and trying to earn country money with it is delaying the inevitable.

It may be the uncomfortable truth that may be hard to accept. Unless russians and collaborators really decide they had enough and go home altogether.

Crimea is a different story because there's no other choice - it's in between two seas and blocking one - it will be a constant threat and hazard to naval trade (on which Ukraine depends a lot) unless russians are not there anymore.

Not to mention having a few bases with Harpoons and Neptunes on Crimea shores makes russian navy permanently grounded.

Edited February 27, 2023 by kraze

[Beleg85]

Ukrainian Command in the South reportedly confirmed they are moving some mechanized forces close to the border with Moldova in addition to units of Border Guards that are already there. Interesting development, as overwhelming majority of experts in this region presume entire narration around coup d'etat there was rather internal and not serious- too many actors, including Western ones, would consider any military engagement in Transinistria to be dangerous escalation of the conflict.

On other side, Russian Soviet-era weapon stockpiles in Transinistria can be very temptive for Ukraine. It's low hanging fruit, given laughable size of Russian forces there.

[Haiduk]

Meanwhile Russians are continuing to lose new and new troops near Vuhledar.

Here is just some new vids for last days:

Russian tankers in gardens 1 km south from Pavlivka, spotted the drone and just abanoned own vehciles. Tanks were bombed and one burned, othe rlikely damaged.

Russian blogger writes about heavy losses of mobiks near Vuhledar on 26th of Feb:

Today [26th Feb] many of combat brothers were fallen! Not all we could equip as it need. Not everybody got a chance to get a chance on life in hard battle on account of technical advantage over the enemy! Rest in peace! I remember! I Love! There are heaviest battles are going near Ugledar for each meters of land!  

Other Russian milblogger writes in anry, that now 5th tank brigade is decimating near Vuhledar.

 

Muradov [commander of Vuhledar operation] is continuie to perish troops on Ugledar. In particular, probably before planned UKR spring offensive, he decided more significantly to weak one of the best tank brigades in Russia (5th tank brigade). But he is not only not removed from his post, given to the tribunal, but he is even has promoted

It's said, recently Pacific Fleet commander fu...g dressed down Muradov for naval infantry losses near Ugledar, and relatives of killed incline almost to reprisals and blood feuds over the general

Edited February 27, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, hcrof said:

Agreed, those Russian troops in transnistria are utterly isolated from Moscow and can't be resupplied or reinforced. I seem to remember they have to use an airport in Moldova proper to rotate troops! There is a military airport in tiraspol but it is 7km of flat fields from the Ukrainian border...

I really do hope Putin does something stupid in Moldova.  I mean, beyond the stupid stuff he's done already.  As much as I don't like violence as a form of politics, the truth is that Russia benefits from such reluctance.  The quickest way to resolve Moldova's long suffering foreign occupation is to have Putin give it and Ukraine an excuse to act.

The primary problem for Russia forces in Moldova is Ukraine has pledged support.  Since they are already at war with Russia it's no big deal for them to start open hostilities towards Russian forces.  First and foremost shooting down any Russian aircraft trying to get in or out of Transnistria.  Easily done, so as soon as Ukraine decides to take action the forces in Transnistria are 100% cut off without Ukraine having to do anything other than dedicate some AA to the area.

Worse, a reminder of the strategic situation:

Moldova and Ukraine could cut Transnistria up into isolated pieces in a day.  Looking at that map, we're talking about 3 or 4 places where the distance between Moldova and Ukraine is single digit KMs in depth.  Ukraine isn't Russia... it won't take months to advance that far!

For sure pro-Russians in Transnistria could make occupation rather uncomfortable for Moldova in the short term, but I have a feeling that militarily it won't be a game changer.  Especially the EU/US helps Moldova with political reintegration.

In the end Putin will have one more thing on his list of failures.  Which, I suspect, is why he's not done anything to risk intervention.

Steve

[kraze]

On 2/26/2023 at 6:38 PM, sburke said:

Despite Belarus folks actually joining the Ukraine army to fight Russia.  RR sabotage to disrupt Russian troop movements.  Their own protest movement against the election stolen by Lukashenko....  

The country has less than 10 million people.  Heck the SF, SJ Oakland area has as many people.  Nice of you to just write them off.

Why aren't Belarus folks joining their own army? Exactly. Outcasts tend to find home in other places.

Ten people being different from a million doesn't excuse a million.

Because it's never about what people protest against but FOR what people protest. And how many of them bother.

Russians protest against putin too. They blame him for not killing Ukrainians hard enough.

Edited February 27, 2023 by kraze

[Haiduk]

10 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

given laughable size of Russian forces there.

Many of Russian troops there are locals with Russian citizenship (some Transnistrians have even four %) ), who signed contract with Russian MoD.

Edited February 27, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Troops of 1st company of 20th special purpose battalion of Presidental brigade assaults enemy trenches. More interesting thing at the end of video - Russian tank has arrived to support own infantry, but UKR drone dropped grenade and hit the gunner sight. Blinded tank has retreated.

 

Edited February 27, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Also interesting sign of Vuhledar battle - UKR drones already bomb Russians on 500 m -1 km south from Pavlivka, but it's too early to say that UKR trops crossed the river and seized some part of the settlement.  

The video, whith drone strike on two tanks, which I posted above filmed in gardens in 1 km from Pavlivka

Also other one - strike at UAZ-452 near sourthern outskirt of Pavlivka. 

щт