How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

What to watch in Year Two

“Patterns that clearly signal to Moscow that it faces defeat on its current trajectory—for example, if it proves to be unable to prevent Ukraine from retaking occupied territory. That prospect would likely prompt further Russian escalation.”

 

A lot of the Rand people still seem to think Russia has a magical rabbit in a hat somewhere. Russia could use WMD, or Strike Poland, or launch a major attack on Western undersea infrastructure. Is there a fourth choice I am missing? Because all three of these basically involve declaring war on NATO. Since they are the second best army in Ukraine right now, that seems unwise.

[Battlefront.com]

Latest round of announced material aid for Ukraine:

• Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• Additional 155mm artillery rounds;
• Additional 120mm mortar rounds;
• Four air surveillance radars;
• Additional Javelin anti-armor systems;
• Approximately 2,000 anti-armor rockets;
• Four Bradley Infantry Fire Support Team vehicles;
• Two tactical vehicles to recover equipment;
• Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
• Demolition munitions;
• Night vision devices;
• Tactical secure communications systems;
• Medical supplies;
• Spare parts and other field equipment. 

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3302787/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

 

I've bolded the ones that I found most interesting!

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-20-2023

Really interesting ISW today, a lot of discussion of the attempted integration/takeover of the LNR/DNR forces by the Russian MOD. ISW seems to think this has a fairly large chance of going badly at a time when nothing much is going well from a Russian perspective. 

[Battlefront.com]

We've talked about smoke quite a bit, specifically about the absence of it on the Russian side.  Here's an interesting kill for Oryx:

And another example of how difficult Oryx's job is.  Video of vehicles (many tanks) that Russia bothered to remove from the battlefield and has sitting in Russia.  Were these vehicles counted already?  It's going to be difficult to say as many images they work with are not clear enough to check against the ones in the video.  Plus, they have had their ERA stripped and that makes it even harder.  All we can say for sure is what we see here definitely didn't drive back to Russia for a victory parade

Steve

[Sir Lancelot]

22 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Not necessarily. It will convince China that we don't buy their 'neutrality' and show them that they can't do it the Chinese way, which can be summarized as 'it isn't there as long as you don't talk about it'. 

All that talk about escalation is completly unjustified, since Russia and China already chose that direction before the first Russian tank crossed the Ukrainian border and probably even a long time before that. It's the fear of escalation that brought us in this lousy situation in the first place.

Yes, acknowledge Taiwan as a sovereign state, and let's see how brave Xi really is. 

 

Of course China hasn’t been neutral in this war, but its interests are also not aligned with Russia’s (in truth, Putin’s).  What China wants is status quo ante bellum - China would’ve preferred  Putin had never started the war, but now that it’s started, China wants to see the war ended as soon as possible, but not at the expense of Russia becoming destabilized or Putin being ousted.  For this reason, we’ve so far seen China acting as Russia’s life line, but not so much so that China would send military aid to Russia.  However, if the US unnecessarily stokes tension in Taiwan at this moment, China could perceive this as a strangle move by the US and could  be provoked into sending material war support to Russia.  The West has been dragging its feet with delivering heavy weapons and struggling with sending enough ammunition when Ukraine has been fighting a mostly self-reliant Russian army.  Is it wise to further provoke the world’s second largest economy into becoming Russia’s arms factory, not to mention the global economic fallout that would ensue?

Edited February 21, 2023 by Sir Lancelot

[Battlefront.com]

Another example of Ukrainian innovation at the tactical level:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/116a91d/the_witch_had_a_crazy_idea/

The video describes a scene where the Ukrainians can't see Russians from their position, but the drone operator (presumably the woman speaking) knows where they are and that they aren't taking adequate defensive precautions.  She suggests that a Mk19 get put into the back of a pickup truck, drive like Hell to a specified point, fire an entire box of HE rounds at the Russian positions, then drive like Hell out of there.  She did the math and figured they could unload a whole box before the enemy's shells can land (even the best and most responsive artillery unit still contends with flight times!)..  Apparently the Ukrainians knew it was effective because they were monitoring their radio traffic.  So they did this, it worked, and they kept doing it to "terrorize" the Russians

Brilliant.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Recent footage of Russians launching wildly inaccurate BM-21 barrage on (probably) innocent farmland and trees.  It's been a long time since I've seen a 3rd Army Corps vehicle.

 

[chuckdyke]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

She suggests that a Mk19 get put into the back of a pickup truck, drive like Hell to a specified point, fire an entire box of HE rounds at the Russian positions, then drive like Hell out of there.

Somebody said that women are good in reputation assassination through gossip only. Another theory in the trashcan. Also, they are not good at math mm. 

Edited February 21, 2023 by chuckdyke

[sburke]

How the Russian economy self-immolated in the year since Putin invaded Ukraine (yahoo.com)

[Sir Lancelot]

16 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Let us all recall that Aragorn has been very sure that RU could not be trusted and would act aggressively, always.  He also thought we were mostly overoptimistic in how RU would continue to make this war very hard for UKR.  He was right.  He seems to believe that Xi is just as crazy.  I thought that economic interdependence would make aggressive war like this too stupid for even a dictator to attempt -- I was wrong.   So now I look at China and say "they have nothing to gain that is even 1% of the economic damage they would do themselves".  Yet it is now clear that doing something really obviously stupid and self defeating is no longer a barrier.  Humans are crazy, especially dictator humans.  It's like they get bored or something.  Having complete power over 144M people, or 1B people, is just not enough it seems.  Gotta always have a little more.  Like a billionaire who goes to jail because he cheats on $10M in taxes -- how was that worth it?

I’m afraid you haven’t figured out autocrat’s mentality.  First, strongmen such as Putin and Xi have inflated ego and genuinely believe that only they can rejuvenate their countries — after all, they clawed their way to the top, surely it must mean that they are the strongest of the strong.  Second, they see themselves as paternal figures — policies, however draconian or bloody, are implemented for the long term good of the state.  Third, they see themselves in a constant struggle against an opportunistic West that is ready to pounce at the slightest sign of weakness  — therefore, as they perceive their countries are in a constant struggle for survival, they must have the courage to do the unsavory dirty work so that the motherland remains safe.  Putin’s fight for Ukraine and China’s for Taiwan are not really about expanding the empire but rather strengthening the empire by securing a sphere of influence so that the heartland is in a strategically safer position.  Putin and Xi (to a lesser extent) are mentally living in the past — they still firmly believe in great power politics of the 19th century.

Edited February 21, 2023 by Sir Lancelot

[Aragorn2002]

10 minutes ago, Sir Lancelot said:

I’m afraid you haven’t figured out autocrat’s mentality.  People such as Putin and Xi have inflated ego and genuinely believe that only they can rejuvenate their countries.  First, they see themselves as paternal figures — policies, however draconian or bloody, are implemented for the long term good of the state.  Second, they see themselves in a constant struggle against an opportunistic West that is ready to pounce at the slightest sign of weakness  — therefore, as they perceive their countries are in a constant struggle for survival, they must have the courage to do the unsavory dirty work so that the motherland remains safe.  Putin’s fight for Ukraine and China’s for Taiwan are not so much about expanding the empire but rather strengthening the empire by securing a sphere of influence so that the heartland is safe from aggression.

From whom? Sounds like you bought the Russian/Chinese propaganda. 'Yes, we're aggressive, but only to prevent aggression'.

[Sir Lancelot]

55 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

From whom? Sounds like you bought the Russian/Chinese propaganda. 'Yes, we're aggressive, but only to prevent aggression'.

I don’t believe in that rationale, because I know its flaws.  But you can’t engage in diplomacy or plan effective response if you can’t empathize with the other side.  Believing and understanding are fundamentally different concepts.

Edited February 21, 2023 by Sir Lancelot

[chuckdyke]

Just now, Sir Lancelot said:

you can’t empathize with the other side.

Yes, we have the audacity to have a democracy and separate Government, Judiciary and the Police. How shocking and threatening for Autocracies. Tyranny, Theocracy will oppose the Democratic systems. Suggest dialog? Like chickens who are friends with Colonel Sanders. 

[Yet]

5 hours ago, danfrodo said:

I remember posting similar points nearly a year ago.  Look at all the things Putin would not want and how many of them his failed coup-war has accomplished.  Actually, if we just judge him on his accomplishments it's really impressive.  The only problem is that these results were for the other side, but still he should get several gold stars for effort. 

He's:

unified NATO

pushed Finland and Sweden into NATO

made every country on his border get very serious about defense

accelerated the move away from fossil fuels by a decade

Reduced the military threat of RU for a generation

Accelerated the 'stans' countries in becoming more independent

Sent a lot of really talented technical professionals to the west -- thx! 

Introduced millions of noobs into the concept of what is and what is not a tank, which should actually be taught in schools but sadly is not

On political unity, anyone that can make me actually complement Mitch McConnell is a real miracle worker.  (note I have put those complements in writing here on the forum multiple times)

So let's all take a moment to praise the genius of Putin, who has done things that most people thought were simply impossible.

Good list, can I add one?

he managed to bring EU decision making that used to take months - to days. 

 

ps. I tried to get Tanks and AFVs as mandatory topics at our kindergarten, but somehow the parental committee didnt agree. Any ideas?

Edited February 21, 2023 by Yet

[Sir Lancelot]

47 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Yes, we have the audacity to have a democracy and separate Government, Judiciary and the Police. How shocking and threatening for Autocracies. Tyranny, Theocracy will oppose the Democratic systems. Suggest dialog? Like chickens who are friends with Colonel Sanders. 

You seem to have a caricature view of autocracy and theocracy.  Despite all their flaws, these states still provide stability, social benefits, and public services (to varying degrees).  To people living in these countries who may have never been to the West, but have received public services from their own (however flawed) governments, do you not see your view could be perceived as arrogant and condescending? How then do you plan on persuading these people that democracy is better?

Edited February 21, 2023 by Sir Lancelot

[chuckdyke]

4 minutes ago, Sir Lancelot said:

Despite all their NUMEROUS flaws, these states still provide some degree of social benefits and public service.

With leaders who think they are entitled to abuse their citizens as they see fit. Let's see the stellar methods we all see on the media. You can vote for candidates who support dialog, I vote for people who refuse to engage. We live after all in a democracy. 

[Sir Lancelot]

11 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

With leaders who think they are entitled to abuse their citizens as they see fit. Let's see the stellar methods we all see on the media. You can vote for candidates who support dialog, I vote for people who refuse to engage. We live after all in a democracy. 

Leaders who think they’re entitled to abuse their citizens — we’ve had those in the US too, you know? Good thing that checks and balances work, and stopped a would-be tinpot dictator.  I don’t want to turn this into an argument about US politics, so I’ll leave it at that.  Power corrupts, period.  Without checks and balances, such leaders can arise anywhere.

Edited February 21, 2023 by Sir Lancelot

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, Sir Lancelot said:

 I don’t want to turn this into an argument about US politics,

I don't live in the US, here we also have the right not to vote for people who have super-clue in their pants. Don't be fooled, democracy can turn into anarchy and then some despot appears who turns it into a tyranny. Everything is temporary.

[TheVulture]

10 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

From whom? Sounds like you bought the Russian/Chinese propaganda. 'Yes, we're aggressive, but only to prevent aggression'.

No, he's describing the Russian/Chinese leader mindset, not agreeing with it. Putin is probably genuinely worried about the threat of a NATO attack, just like in the cold war the USSR was worried about the danger of a NATO first strike, even thought everyone in NATO knew there was no way NATO would launch a first strike.

Also, the Putin mindset is more worried about capabilities than intentions: Intentions can change much more quickly. So what the current leaders intend doesn't matter much. What counts is what they are capable of, and Russian actions are aimed at countering capabilities (on which they screwed up massively)

Edited February 21, 2023 by TheVulture

[chuckdyke]

Totalitarian 'Crack-Troops'.

[NamEndedAllen]

Is this reported anywhere else? It seems beyond credulity that Russia would try to start a war against NATO. Especially after relentlessly striving to destroy its own military for the past year.

 

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Is this reported anywhere else? It seems beyond credulity that Russia would try to start a war against NATO. Especially after relentlessly striving to destroy its own military for the past year.

 

Yes, this official. But instead of attack, it should be read as sabotage. With all those extremist right wingers, climate activists etc the Russians have a rich choice of volunteers. 

[Huba]

Vladimir Vladimirovich is speaking live. At the moment nothing special, words "Nazi" and "West" are being repeated quite often.

 

[NamEndedAllen]

Shelling along many areas of the front, but may be routine. But I’m not sure if shelling from Belarus is routine. Tantrums after President Biden’s surprise (cream pie in Putin’s face) visit to Kyiv?

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[Grossman]

1 hour ago, Yet said:

Good list, can I add one?

he managed to bring EU decision making that used to take months - to days. 

 

ps. I tried to get Tanks and AFVs as mandatory topics at our kindergarten, but somehow the parental committee didnt agree. Any ideas?

Ha Ha. There are some more "achievements"

Woke Germany up to the geopolitical realities of 2022. Recalibrated German Ostpolitik towards Russia "change through trade" towards the EU and NATO with a large increase in an underfunded Bundeswehr .

Caused economic, political, and social barriers around Russia so living standards there will fall indefinitely.

At last count about 200,000 Russian soldiers are dead, missing or wounded and about 40% of the army's equipment has been lost to date

Succeeded in creating a firm alliance of the G7 countries in support of the Ukrainian armed forces.  

In Russia to massively increase the repressive nature of the state.

This is Work in Progress. There is a strong likelihood all will be aggravated over time.