Battlefront.com Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 10 minutes ago, kevinkin said: So Ukraine has to resist the temptation to strike first to not expend manpower in a offensive that might not have the weight right now to carry the day. Better to let the RA do what it does worse, move on the open battlefield. Yeah, that's what I've been thinking for some time now. Case in point is Bakhmut. Russia struck first and gave Ukraine all kinds of flexibility on how to deal with it. If Ukraine had launched a counter offensive elsewhere it would offer Russia the same opportunity. Going into this winter season I had hoped that Ukraine would have the sort of force superiority that could pull off such a counter offensive, but in January it became clear that Russia had done too much to bolster its frontlines to make that viable. The big question is about Summer. If this is all Russia has for the Winter, and is both are too exhausted to do anything in the Spring, both will be anxious to get a fight going on in the Summer. Russia seems to be psychologically incapable of sitting back on the defensive, so a Russian attack is almost a sure bet. Without the benefit of knowing what Ukraine might have available to it, theoretically the best course of action is to let Russia commit first, whack them there, then hit back when Russia's attack culminates. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Yeah, that's what I've been thinking for some time now. Case in point is Bakhmut. Russia struck first and gave Ukraine all kinds of flexibility on how to deal with it. If Ukraine had launched a counter offensive elsewhere it would offer Russia the same opportunity. Going into this winter season I had hoped that Ukraine would have the sort of force superiority that could pull off such a counter offensive, but in January it became clear that Russia had done too much to bolster its frontlines to make that viable. The big question is about Summer. If this is all Russia has for the Winter, and is both are too exhausted to do anything in the Spring, both will be anxious to get a fight going on in the Summer. Russia seems to be psychologically incapable of sitting back on the defensive, so a Russian attack is almost a sure bet. Without the benefit of knowing what Ukraine might have available to it, theoretically the best course of action is to let Russia commit first, whack them there, then hit back when Russia's attack culminates. Steve If UKR needs until summer to get up to desired strength, I do wonder what kind of corrosion & shaping it will be doing in the meantime. Not going on a major offensive does not mean they do nothing. Hopefully they can knock out a lot of supply assets (rail, depots, vehicles, etc) in the meantime. And allegedly UK is sending some longer range missiles? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: when Russia's attack culminates. and leaves them incapable of defending their traditionally hardened defensive positions. Otherwise, the UA will have to find a way to economically force them out. Maybe airpower can deliver a coup de grace allowing newly formed armored formations (with the NATO stuff) freedom to peel the onion and run down the demoralized conscripts. I think I am getting ahead of the situation. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NamEndedAllen Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: Ukraine's strategy is to build a force of superior quality that relies upon ISR and PGMs to shape the battlefield deep in the rear. Bring on the ATACMS! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Second part of famous video from Ukrainian Rambo. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: I heard an interview yesterday on BBC Radio with Ukraine's new Deputy Defense Minister (at least I think it was Oleksandr Pavlyuk) gave an answer to the quantity question that could have come straight out of this thread. He said that Ukraine is not concerned about how much Russia has of this or that because Ukraine's strategy is to build a force of superior quality that relies upon ISR and PGMs to shape the battlefield deep in the rear. He said that their concept was to kill and disrupt Russia's forces before they even get to the frontlines. Yup, he said ISR and PGM explicitly, two acronyms we love here in this thread Good. We can stop the very unnatural and unhealthy tank-lust trend that has polluted our thinking. Disgusting really. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 16 minutes ago, Beleg85 said: Second part of famous video from Ukrainian Rambo. You can see something is smoking, right about where that BMP was targeted. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scarletto Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 55 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Thanks for checking in with us again. Good to hear that they've got things more organized that they don't need a bunch of old farts pissing off their wives to keep the aid flowing I'm not Ukrainian, but what you did for them is deeply appreciated by someone who was only able to contribute money and morale support. Steve I think rules got tightened due to Aid workers straying into enemy territory, and ending up murdered, two were lost on my 2nd tour, but that's because their driver tried a detour. Luckily we had good Ukrainians with us, though did not stop the Orcs from trying to shell us, even though it was obvious we were not military. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Strong explosion, fire reported at prosecutor's office in center of Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Donetsk (yahoo.com) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 18 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Good. We can stop the very unnatural and unhealthy tank-lust trend that has polluted our thinking. Disgusting really. hold my beer Sen. Graham urges F-16s to Ukraine as US says invasion is crime 'against humanity' - ABC News (go.com) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: You can see something is smoking, right about where that BMP was targeted. Steve Twitter even try to identify Russian assault unit... On another note- Lukashenka is not giving sign of life for 48+h already, even TG and VK channels traditionally attributed with his propaganda are silent. Perhaps because of hangover, perhaps they plan something with Vlad, perhaps he was served special tea. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Beleg85 said: Twitter even try to identify Russian assault unit... "Predator" wrote in his TG this was GRU Spetsnaz trooper and shows a cartridge from his rifle. Edited February 19, 2023 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 @sburke Lt.colonel Viktor Fursov, unit unknown, was a recon, but judging on signs and shoulder stripes not from Spetsnaz, but from motor-rifle units. Likely recon battalion commander or chief of recon in brigade/regimental/divisional HQ. Was killed on 10th of Feb Major (of reserve) Dmitriy Taradeyko. VDV officer. Enlisted to PMC Wagner. Was killed on 18th of Jan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris talpas Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 6 hours ago, The_Capt said: Interestingly I think the step the Russians missed was the same one that a lot of western mainstream analysts kinda glossed over at the start of this war, and is near and dear to just about everyone on this forum - the war game. In military planning this is a major step/exercise (in fact we do it at least twice). In strategic planning it is normally done through a series of operational war games and results summed, but you can do a version of opposed strategies. In the war gaming phase one takes a plan and smashes it up against an opponents counter-plan. What a lot of students miss is that it is not about winning, it is about completely acid washing your concepts. War games are not supposed to be fun, they are supposed to brutalize your planning before your opponent does it for real on the battlefield. Until you see every flaw and hole in your plan, you cannot fully understand the risks. You can even do this for non-linear campaigning, but it is trickier. One has to re-think the war game for emergent phenomena, and here a bottom up micro-sampling based approach may work better. However even for top-down - and here I think a lot of western experts made this mistake - one can see macro-masking leading to significant poor assumptions. This just underlines how hard a discipline this is to carry out when you are really trying. As far as I can tell Russia did not war game this out. When the boss has a habit of having people who disagree with him thrown out windows, it is pretty hard to get honest assessments of holes in his plan. This is a planning environment of lethal group think which is just a perfect recipe for progressive unreality. But for a few dozen copies of CMBS and Putin not being a gamer, a war was lost. Reminds me of the war gaming the Japanese did prior to Midway, throwing out inconvenient outcomes based on overconfidence. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 (edited) CM level 3/4 for failed attack by RU infantry, south of Vuhledar (little warning, it's from a drone but you can still see a number of them being hit and the aftermath) Edited February 19, 2023 by Fenris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 51 minutes ago, Beleg85 said: On another note- Lukashenka is not giving sign of life for 48+h already, even TG and VK channels traditionally attributed with his propaganda are silent. Perhaps because of hangover, perhaps they plan something with Vlad, perhaps he was served special tea. Interesting. Since the times of kings it was always a bad idea to go to the court of the big king when he wasn't happy. This will probably wind up being nothing, but it is entirely possible that Lukashenko is not going home until he's given Putin something specific. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 (edited) Short CM level 4/5 of UKR mech-infantry attack(?) looks like M113s Edited February 19, 2023 by Fenris 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 AT infantry ambush 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Sorry for spamming, a lot of stuff now coming out from the various places where there's been action lately 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Interesting. Since the times of kings it was always a bad idea to go to the court of the big king when he wasn't happy. This will probably wind up being nothing, but it is entirely possible that Lukashenko is not going home until he's given Putin something specific. Steve I suspect that something is Belarus, full stop. Lukashenko's, hopefully unpleasant, demise, and even a medium sized distraction in Belarus would be good for Ukraine. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 20 minutes ago, Fenris said: AT infantry ambush Russian AFV passes a trench without overwatch. It takes time to dig in like that. So maybe they thought the trench was abandoned? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 (edited) Italian journalist visits Ukrainian soldiers, who discovered mutilated bodies of their comrades. Before being killed, they were apparently subjected to "Colombian tie" by muscovite opressors. I generally refrain from calling them "orcs" here, but one cannot call them otherwise than human beasts. Only link, not embedded [everything is blurred, but still you can see how disguisted they are]: https://twitter.com/StefaniaBattis4/status/1627238224635600896 Edited February 19, 2023 by Beleg85 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 a little more balanced view of the war's impact in Germany. Ukraine war expected to cost Germany 160 billion euros by year-end (yahoo.com) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NamEndedAllen Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 This could be getting interesting. And more complicated. And political as election season in the USA heats up. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/us-ambassador-un-warns-china-crossing-red-line-provides-lethal-aid-rus-rcna71392 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Was about to post a link, so just a comment: It wasn't too long ago chatter at the water cooler was China would never back a loser like Putin. China is too smart for that. These reports requires more attention. The devil is in the details. We know what the West wants out of all this. But what about China? I think China is acting up now as a counterbalance because they see the West slowly introducing modern systems. Russia might fail, but on China's terms and in no way will they allow western democratic forces to emerge in Russia. In China's mindset, negotiations are long over due. So lethal support might just be a way to encourage talks. Russian is a PIA asset for China now. And maybe they want to make Russia less of a PIA and more of an asset. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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