How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

Oh and just to put the bow on this whole thing:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64644845

We had a lotta laughs though - cue montage.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

My take too. The monster Putin is throwing his population into a meat grinder and attrition is real for them. While back in the US, no one wants their kids thrown into that type of warfare. While there might be some lack of awareness of what is going on in eastern Ukraine, I think most Americans realize this is ugly warfare right now. Putin may want to make things so ugly Americans will recoil from direct involvement. So is he projecting a perception of attrition or the reality of it? I think more the later. 

I think it is both.  When life serves you lemons, you make lemonade.  Clearly Russia is NOT choosing this strategy of Human waves and grinding attritional warfare instead of other viable options to gain victory.  Like the terror artillery and missile strikes on Ukrainian civilians, this is the tool they have and so that's what they are using.  However, it is also true that the Russians thinking that brute force intimidates the populace of the West.  Be it smashing civilian school children with deliberate artillery strikes or racking up Ukrainian casualties in exchange for mountains of dead Russian convicts.  They are hoping that either the physical results of their attacks or the perception of them or both will help get them what they want at the negotiating table.  Therefore, not a bluff.  This is all Russia has to do.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Lethaface said:

 

Note the burn mark on the road right where the BMP got struck.  Looks like this wasn't the first vehicle to get struck here!

Credit to the Russian commander... this might be the very first time I have seen a Russian crew member try to rescue another member of his crew.  At least that's the way it looks to me.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

58 minutes ago, Falaise said:

What interests me the most is to see at least one of these comrades holed up in the shelter frozen in fear
The attack at this point fails only by one who "pête les plombs"

It seems he was aiding in reloading.  Theory is he's wounded.  Whatever the case, definitely not "frozen in fear".

Steve

[masc]

Clearer version without music:

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/114qlyy/ukrainian_killing_3_russian_soilders_attacking/

5:00 minute version without music but less clear:

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/114u66s/the_full_version_of_the_video_with_a_ukrainian/

Guy filming survived allegedly and posted these to a private instagram.  He said on telegram that his comrade there was "paralyzed by fear".  This comes from reddit comments so take it with a grain of salt as I don't have a telegram and can't see his posts.

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Also extraordinarily helpful and eloquent 'facts on the ground':

1.  Black Horse HQ redeploys to IVO Izium, with cantonments and training grounds sharing defence responsibility with fully 'Westernised' UA mech forces deployed in the central Karkhiv-Izium-east Luhansk oblast 'bulge' of Ukraine.  Think CENTAG -- UA [Bundeswehr] fully integrated with US commands. Fulda Gap. Whatever 'heavy' means, it is deployed at full scale right heah! Go ahead, make our day....

2. Polish-Czech heavy armoured division IVO Dnipro and Poltava (which btw is also a forward TAC base and EW command centre). Attach heavily subsidised Romanian pioneer brigade (come on, you DID get your frontier restored to the Dnistr postwar in 2025, by popular referendum. Do your bit!)

....Here, my pathetic little US satrapy  can even contract some cranky old EOD sea lawyers to manage private contractors (I could accurately name the nations providing the actual sappers, but it would be distinctly nonwoke) clearing about ten bazillion mines/UXO in Donbas... that is actually the most dangerous postwar work, no joke.

3.  101 AB RCT in Kyiv backstops UA forces on the frontier from Chernaiv to Kyiv. TBH, the UA has nothing really to learn about  combat from the 101st, but it's always nice to professionalise and integrate the 'tail'.

4. Ideally, Anglo-US HQ advisory and training elements -- perhaps Étrangère as well? --  are based around Gomel, in a newly democratic but utterly Anything Goes Belarus. 

Minsk becomes the weirdest, edgiest and most violent city in Europe, the sole entrepot of the post-Soviet Mafiyas.  Tombstone 1889, or Shanghai 1924....

Я твой Гекльберри.

...Notice that 'NATO' plays no formal role in any of this for 10+ years.

****

So now we wander off the map of military into Emerging Markets possibility space.

1. By about 2032, Ukraine, Europe's GMP compliant manufacturing hub, has already reached middle income status on a national average per capita GDP basis.

2. Fantastic yakitori, chaat and vegan Texmex, plus gourmet coffee, is standard fare in youthful hi-tech edge cities exploding in quaint Old Town / university areas of all Ukraine's major cities.

3. Ukrainian biopharma / biotech eats China's (and India's) lunch with amazing speed, moving to the world's R&D leading edge (daily nonstop flights Odessa-Tel Aviv). 

4. With avid lobbying from the private sector (fine, just say George Soros if you're into that kind of thing, but it's pretty ecumenical in reality), Ukraine achieves EU membership by 2028, well before NATO becomes feasible.

5.  @kraze , realising that Living Well Is the Best Revenge, claims 'reparations' from ambiguously legal Muscovite massage therapists, one lap dance at a time.

In addition to his tireless custom but stingy tipping, he also gains some notoriety in the trade by insisting the 'visiting artists' recite verses from Pushkin and Bulgakov on the karaoke machine whilst Performing, with the bass reverb cranked up to Eleven....

Ни мамы, ни папы, ни газировки с виски. Нет русской возлюбленной!

6.  Coincidentally, rumour spreads that certain videos are embedded as easter eggs in CMBS2 scenarios. Shall we say, ahem, 'Enemy Condition' finally becomes meaningful in achieving Total Victory.  Whose grass mod are you using, winkwinknudgenudge?

7.  CM product sales soar faster than a  Stalinist pig iron quota, particularly for the Professional Edition. Steve retires to Stalin's former palace at Yalta (several degrees warmer than Vermont) and makes bank as a docent, with the grudging assent of his wife, while obdurately refusing to fix the PzKwIII turret rotation bug, or sumfink.

6. Meanwhile, across the bristling 2023 frontier, maquiladoras flourish, first in Crimea and Kuban, then in Belgorod and Voronezh... and, wait for it, Chechnya (where Kadyrov  has finally achieved martyrdom after enjoying too much lamb with apricots at the halal buffet).

Bored, totally unfunded Russian generals are only too happy to put their mobiks/zeks/ fanatical brainwashed Third Rome Zoomers to profitable (for the generals) work in sweatshops, picking and packing pills and chips, since 'hohols' can no longer can be found to do those jobs across the (densely fortified and mined but increasingly porous) frontier.

....So yeah, about that combat Readiness for that Next War, against peoples who are presently funding your commanders' beach houses in Cyprus.

8.  Sadly, the shattered and depopulated Donbas will take at least 12 years and billions in reconstruction aid and subsidies to start showing signs of economic life again. 'Clean energy' on the steppes is probably the thin edge of the wedge.

(copains, please don't take this too literally, it's presented more as a counterpoint to the last 20 pages or so.  But such trajectories did /are happening in Asia, in spite of dysfunctional rulers and seemingly shattered infra and social contracts. Take a look at today's Cambodia, which quite literally devoured about a third of itself nearly half a century ago!)

OMG this is funny, also very good. Good to point out how DIFFERENT things might be five years after this war than they were five years before it.

2 hours ago, Lethaface said:

 

See below

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Credit to the Russian commander... this might be the very first time I have seen a Russian crew member try to rescue another member of his crew.  At least that's the way it looks to me.

Steve's point is interesting, and mostly true, although I think I have seen one or two others. But the other thing this video makes clear is that the Russians have not learned a bleeping thing in a year of grinding combat. They are STILL doing the single vehicle, straight down the road charge with no infantry support, and no suppression to speak of. And then of course they are on fire. As many people have stated the Russian military just isn't a learning culture, and that is why they are going to lose.

[Letter from Prague]

5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

You had me at GMP compliant manufacturing hub.

2 hours ago, sburke said:

is it Slovakia bashing day yet?

Slovakia is not allowing German howitzers to cross border from Ukraine for repairs for several weeks (yahoo.com)

Where I'm from, every day is Slovakia bashing day.

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, masc said:

Guy filming survived allegedly and posted these to a private instagram.  He said on telegram that his comrade there was "paralyzed by fear".  This comes from reddit comments so take it with a grain of salt as I don't have a telegram and can't see his posts.

Well, if anybody thinks that second guy was "paralyzed by fear", including the brave cameraman, then they have a different definition of what paralyzed is.  The guy was responding correctly to voice commands, feeding the cameraman grenades when asked, reloading rifles, and reloading the RPG.  It is possible that this made a critical difference as the cameraman was able to concentrate most of his time on what was going on around him and pumping out fire.  That said, it is pretty clear that the second guy had reached his limit on what he could do to help and it would have been better if he had not.  Still, better than curled up in a ball not doing anything.

A Combat Mission note... if this were footage from the game, I am guessing the Russian player would be complaining about all kinds of "bugs" and "crappy" game mechanics because this one guy mowed down the better part of a squad while being shot at by a BMP.  Well, until the BMP got hit by the second RPG round.

Yet another example from real war to emphasize that favorable odds does not necessarily produce a favorable result.

Steve

[danfrodo]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

A Combat Mission note... if this were footage from the game, I am guessing the Russian player would be complaining about all kinds of "bugs" and "crappy" game mechanics because this one guy mowed down the better part of a squad while being shot at by a BMP.  Well, until the BMP got hit by the second RPG round.

Yet another example from real war to emphasize that favorable odds does not necessarily produce a favorable

You mean like what happened to me last night as I sought 'brush aside' some pesky soviet soldiers in some trees along the road?  I had multiple MG42s blasting away from halftracks and dismounted to finish the job.  I lost two MG gunners & 4 infantry and I am not sure if the couple of guys w ppsh are still laying in wait for my guys to push forward.  I know I've killed most, but just one guy w ppsh is a nightmare if stumbled into, even w superior numbers.  Oh, and it's pre-dawn, so pretty dark.  So I think it's realistic to have one or two hard to hit determined soldiers to cause a lot of damage to fleshy humans.

[Jiggathebauce]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, if anybody thinks that second guy was "paralyzed by fear", including the brave cameraman, then they have a different definition of what paralyzed is.  The guy was responding correctly to voice commands, feeding the cameraman grenades when asked, reloading rifles, and reloading the RPG.  It is possible that this made a critical difference as the cameraman was able to concentrate most of his time on what was going on around him and pumping out fire.  That said, it is pretty clear that the second guy had reached his limit on what he could do to help and it would have been better if he had not.  Still, better than curled up in a ball not doing anything.

A Combat Mission note... if this were footage from the game, I am guessing the Russian player would be complaining about all kinds of "bugs" and "crappy" game mechanics because this one guy mowed down the better part of a squad while being shot at by a BMP.  Well, until the BMP got hit by the second RPG round.

Yet another example from real war to emphasize that favorable odds does not necessarily produce a favorable result.

Steve

I'm reminded of a scenario I played of CMCW where I sent a squad of Soviet infantry hunting for 2 bailed out crewmen from a destroyed vehicle. Little bastard with his (grease gun?) dropped most of my infantrymen and the remainder in that squad didn't want to take orders. Had to send another batch to clean up! 

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Jiggathebauce said:

I'm reminded of a scenario I played of CMCW where I sent a squad of Soviet infantry hunting for 2 bailed out crewmen from a destroyed vehicle. Little bastard with his (grease gun?) dropped most of my infantrymen and the remainder in that squad didn't want to take orders. Had to send another batch to clean up! 

Story of my CM life..... .  "shoot him, someone just point your gun and shoot him... nooooooooo.... arrrgggghhhhhh"

Edited February 17, 2023 by danfrodo

[Yet]

british minister of defence claims 97% of RU troops have been deployed in UA

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-64634760

 

RU lost 50% of its MBTs according to iiss

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-has-lost-more-half-its-tanks-ukraine-report-1781800

 

if both of these are true... pfff

though they keep playing games, trying to take/safe what can be taken.

https://www.politico.eu/article/moldova-president-maia-sandu-russia-attack/ 

the first thing that dies in a war is the truth, but this doesnt sound too far fetched.

esp when RU ministry of foreign affairs states: "we do not interfere in the internal affairs of Moldova and other countries of the world," the ministry said.

Edited February 17, 2023 by Yet

[Beleg85]

48 minutes ago, Yet said:

f both of these are true... pfff

though they keep playing games, trying to take/safe what can be taken.

https://www.politico.eu/article/moldova-president-maia-sandu-russia-attack/ 

the first thing that dies in a war is the truth, but this doesnt sound too far fetched.

Undoubtedly Russians try to destabilize the country. However, a lot of current turmoil with government resign seem to be connected to internal dynamics inside Moldovan government. Ms. Sandu is very popular in the West, but less so inside the country, as her party so far failed to deliver very ambitious program of reforms. So probably she will try to use Russian meddling (always present) in internal affairs as jumping stage for discussion on Moldova security. Worth to remember Russian rockets fly almost every week over their territory. Anyway, her appeal may be a little overdramatic on purpose, to rally behind banner rest of population and not necessary evidence of some wide action on behalf of Kremlin. Perhaps we shouldn't expect any coup d'etat with spetsnaz riding down over Chisinau any time soon, especially given state of their forces in Transinistria.

https://www-osw-waw-pl.translate.goog/pl/publikacje/analizy/2023-02-17/nowy-stary-rzad-moldawii-bezpieczenstwo-gospodarka-i-integracja-z-ue?_x_tr_sl=pl&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl&_x_tr_pto=wapp

 

Also, France seemt to give their Akeron MP (saw some discussions as to how valid this news was, but seems legit):

https://mil-in-ua.translate.goog/uk/news/frantsiya-peredala-ukrayini-ptrk-akeron/?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Edited February 17, 2023 by Beleg85

[kraze]

4 hours ago, sburke said:

is it Slovakia bashing day yet?

Slovakia is not allowing German howitzers to cross border from Ukraine for repairs for several weeks (yahoo.com)

that's because every time German howitzers cross Slovakian border one way or the other - it doesn't end well

[kevinkin]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

They are hoping that either the physical results of their attacks or the perception of them or both will help get them what they want at the negotiating table.  Therefore, not a bluff.  This is all Russia has to do.

Sir Winston Churchill, "Russia is never as strong as she wants to appear, but never as weak as she looks."

Bingo on point 1. But the jury is out on point 2. Let's see if the Bulldog's quote stands the test of time. Interestingly, legend has it that the Russians coined Winston's nick name. 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

Sir Winston Churchill, "Russia is never as strong as she wants to appear, but never as weak as she looks."

Bingo on point 1. But the jury is out on point 2. Let's see if the Bulldog's quote stands the test of time. Interestingly, legend has it that the Russians coined Winston's nick name. 

Mahatma Ghandi - "If you f#ck with me, I will cut you up like a chicken!"

[Beleg85]

Clips from Nova Kahkovka. In the tunnel near a dam, Russians placed tank. Ukrainians send 2 FPV's. First took out safety net that barricaded entrance, second flew into the tunnel. Difficult to say if they achieved any direct hit, but tactics looks sophisticated. Also note how close tot eh dam itself are muscovite stations.

 

[akd]

Longer version sees even more weapons in use by this one guy:

 

[pintere]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Longer version sees even more weapons in use by this one guy:

 

[Bil Hardenberger]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Longer version sees even more weapons in use by this one guy:

 

Just one soldier, doing the job of an entire squad... no wonder the Ukrainians are winning most of these engagements.

Fascinating video, thanks for posting it @akd... you can feel the fear and panic, you don't need to understand the language, but that man carries on. True bravery in action.

[chuckdyke]

Thanks for the video.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Clips from Nova Kahkovka. In the tunnel near a dam, Russians placed tank. Ukrainians send 2 FPV's. First took out safety net that barricaded entrance, second flew into the tunnel. Difficult to say if they achieved any direct hit, but tactics looks sophisticated. Also note how close tot eh dam itself are muscovite stations.

 

This is fascinating how we're getting to watch an obviously major component of modern warfare develop both offensively and defensively.  In this case nets were a logical thing to use to defend against suicide drones, until some smart Ukrainian operators figured out how to effectively do a tandem AT weapon.  First Warhead (drone 1) takes out the net, second warhead (drone 2) takes out the target.  Or at least go to the target, results of course are hard to see.

Steve

[chrisl]

47 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is fascinating how we're getting to watch an obviously major component of modern warfare develop both offensively and defensively.  In this case nets were a logical thing to use to defend against suicide drones, until some smart Ukrainian operators figured out how to effectively do a tandem AT weapon.  First Warhead (drone 1) takes out the net, second warhead (drone 2) takes out the target.  Or at least go to the target, results of course are hard to see.

Steve

That’s where the autonomy needs to advance- you lose radio control in tunnels and caves like that so the UAV needs to be able to take over targeting on its own.

[Battlefront.com]

Paywalled article from The Washington Post on the trashing of Russia's spying capabilities with many coordinated arrests and expulsions.  The two they profiled the most were German BND, one within the BND and another acting as a handler.  But it also talked about sleeper agents coming out of Brazil and other situations.  The assessment is that Russia's ability to monitor and influence the West has taken a massive hit that they aren't having much luck recovering from so far:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/17/russia-spies-europe-arrests/

The article explicitly states that this is yet another example of Russia taking a strategic hit that Putin most likely didn't anticipate when he started the war.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

The Times estimates that Russia has lost 2000 men for every 100 yards of terrain it has taken.  The source appears to be from US intel, but I can't tell for sure as the article is behind a paywall and I've only seen an extract:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-war-nato-anti-aircraft-missiles-russia-western-intel-h2rw9g6cg

Steve