How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Maciej Zwolinski]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Upgraded more light version of Maxim MG in UKR service

MG 08/22? 

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Well... it's literally framed as colonial in rationale and justification by Putin himself,  although without using the word itself (I think). 

This exactly. It's very obviously a colonial war. The only way to be on board is if you simply hate the Western status quo so intensely you don't care about the damage done to folks who seem far way or if you think that colonialism as such is a good thing. Together, it's basically Rindersteak Nazism. 

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

MG 08/22? 

In Red Army also were used light versions

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

In Red Army also were used light versions

Thanks! The flecktarn cover confused me:)

[Bulletpoint]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

But I'm talking about the borderline bloodlust amongst otherwise garden variety pacifists.  Having them be supportive of Ukraine is expected as the cause is just, but the usual response from this crowd is to provide Humanitarian aid, get the UN involved, try to broker a ceasefire, etc.  Never did I expect a child of the 60s telling me we need to send more Javelins and HIMARS, by name for Pete's sake, to Ukraine in order for there to be peace.

I think it might be because Putin has branded himself as the very opposite of the liberal left - anti-minorities, anti-LGBT, anti-feminism, anti-climate action, anti-multiculturalism, etc.

[Ts4EVER]

28 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

In Red Army also were used light versions

That is a Finn.

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think it might be because Putin has branded himself as the very opposite of the liberal left - anti-minorities, anti-LGBT, anti-feminism, anti-climate action, anti-multiculturalism, etc.

Pro-kleptocracy, pro-illegal war and anti rule of law (well those not his own), pro-authoritarian, pro-mis/dis information, pro-murder of just about everyone including his own people.  The guy is a piece of work.

The problem is that certain political parties back at home jumped on some of this particular bandwagon - obviously not to the same extremes.  They did so not because I think they honestly believe this stuff, but because like JRR Tolkien wrote:

And nine, nine rings were gifted to the race of men, who, above all else, desire power.

 And here we are.  Personally I think political discourse is all part of free and fair democracy, and people with different perspectives need to be valued and respected. 

But when you find yourself siding with a genocidal monster based on your political position it may be time for some quiet time and a re-think.

Edited February 13, 2023 by The_Capt

[Haiduk]

24th assault battalion "Aydar" of 53rd mech,brigade was brought to the battle on northern flank of Bakhmut. Reportedly UKR troops could retake 400 m of ground and kept own regained positions. 

"Madyar" confirmed UKR push on the north (but didn't mean battalion's name) and claimed UKR kept positions in the city and on the southern flank. 

According to his battle intensity rate, on 12th of Feb we had 3/10 in the city and on the south and 6...7/10 on the north. 

"Madyar" also told that Wagners now attack with bigger assault groups in 15 men instead 10 as usual, but they obviously havn't more convicts in reserve to replenish own forces - now together with Wagners appeared Russian regulars. But he didn't clarify either this real Russian units, or just mobiks, given to Wagner command.

On the video - "Aydar" troopers before counter-attack

@dan/california Access to civilians w/o special permission was really banned today. After Zelenskiy visited Bakhmut, to the city almost a "piligrimage" began. Huge number of journalists, politics of any level, all wanted to get good PR. All this distract soldiers for maintaining their security. Now each rifle is important, so milityary decided to stop this endless flow of "tourists". Especially now, when Russians shell roads to the city and already first diversion group, sneaked inside the city was eliminated.   

 

And just some Bakhmut vibes - Wagner mercenery was shot in one step from UKR trench

 

Edited February 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[poesel]

Do you think any high ranked politician would visit Kiev from the 23rd to 25th? THAT would be a statement.

[danfrodo]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

24th assault battalion "Aydar" of 53rd mech,brigade was brought to the battle on northern flank of Bakhmut. Reportedly UKR troops could retake 400 m of ground and kept own regained positions. 

"Madyar" confirmed UKR push on the north (but didn't mean battalion's name) and claimed UKR kept positions in the city and on the southern flank. 

According to his battle intensity rate, on 12th of Feb we had 3/10 in the city and on the south and 6...7/10 on the north. 

"Madyar" also told that Wagners now attack with bigger assault groups in 15 men instead 10 as usual, but they obviously havn't more convicts in reserve to replenish own forces - now together with Wagners appeared Russian regulars. But he didn't clarify either this real Russian units, or just mobiks, given to Wagner command.

On the video - "Aydar" troopers before counter-attack

@dan/california Access to civilians w/o special permission was really banned today. After Zelenskiy visited Bakhmut, to the city almost a "piligrimage" began. Huge number of journalists, politics of any level, all wanted to get good PR. All this distract soldiers for maintaining their security. Now each rifle is important, so milityary decided to stop this endless flow of "tourists". Especially now, when Russians shell roads to the city and already first diversion group, sneaked inside the city was eliminated.   

 

And just some Bakhmut vibes - Wagner mercenery was shot in one step from UKR trench

 

Thanks for sharing, Haiduk, those videos are very enlightening.  The guys in snow camo look right out of Feb 1943 until one sees the weapons.  I hope UKR can take some advantage of any RU overextension in the Bakhmut area and punch back, causing RU losses & maybe some routs.  These mobiks & conscripts need to start shooting at their masters.  I know this is a LOTR-only site, but I keep thinking of the scene in Game of Thrones when Daneris tells the merc-conscripts "kill the masters!"

[Haiduk]

Vuhledar now. The look from southwest. Big black spot across the road is completely ruined miners cottage settlement (also named as "upper dachas"). In upper left corner - Southern-Dombasian mine #1 and nibe worshops across the road - large UKR strongpoints, cobering the town from east.

According to Khodakovskiy, UKR troops conducted unsuccessful attempt to push Russians west from the town and after this hit with HIMARS command point of DPR "Kaskad" battlegroup. One combat officer was killled 

Edited February 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

18 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@dan/california Access to civilians w/o special permission was really banned today. After Zelenskiy visited Bakhmut, to the city almost a "piligrimage" began. Huge number of journalists, politics of any level, all wanted to get good PR. All this distract soldiers for maintaining their security. Now each rifle is important, so milityary decided to stop this endless flow of "tourists". Especially now, when Russians shell roads to the city and already first diversion group, sneaked inside the city was eliminated.   

I can totally see an NYT reporter getting unhappy when he was told he couldn't go somewhere.

[Haiduk]

Result of UKR strike with Tochka-U on the building of school in Nikolske village - 18 km NW from Mariupol. Reportedly Russians had barracks and ammo dump here. Locals say they heard about five explosions and aftr hit two or three paramedic vehicles arrived. Russian social media didn't write almost anytrhing about this, just officially was claimed UKR missiile was shot down. Though, probably no signifiucant damage

  

Also one more known missile attack this night is a hit of MGB of LPR building in Kadiivka (Stakhanov), Luhansk oblast. On local TG write about 2 KIA and 5 WIA.   

PS. Aftermath of Makiivka HIMARS strike. Russian 1444th MRR of Samara oblast was disbanded. One their battalion was almost completely wiped out. Other personnel now is sharing among other regiments. Soldiers of 1444th regiment filmed an appeal to General Staff and Putin in order to save their unit. 

Edited February 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

31 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Pro-kleptocracy, pro-illegal war and anti rule of law (well those not his own), pro-authoritarian, pro-mis/dis information, pro-murder of just about everyone including his own people.  The guy is a piece of work.

The problem is that certain political parties back at home jumped on some of this particular bandwagon - obviously not to the same extremes.  They did so not because I think they honestly believe this stuff, but because like JRR Tolkien wrote:

And nine, nine rings were gifted to the race of men, who, above all else, desire power.

 And here we are.  Personally I think political discourse is all part of free and fair democracy, and people with different perspectives need to be valued and respected. 

But when you find yourself siding with a genocidal monster based on your political position it may be time for some quiet time and a re-think.

Tolkien understood almost everything, and wove it into a masterpiece. How many times have we gone back to his work at various points in this war?

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Major Vladimir Kovalyov, HQ of some motor-rifle brigade. Before promotion was commander of UAV company, after promotin maintained communication between HQ and UAV recons. Personally participated in Orlan-10 launchings. Was killed on 2nd July

 

[Bulletpoint]

34 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I can totally see an NYT reporter getting unhappy when he was told he couldn't go somewhere.

Of course... it's his job to go places and report stuff.

[Haiduk]

Gas-pipeline in Yaroslavl' oblast, Russia. Maybe again "Bratstvo" sabateurs work? %)

 

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

But when you find yourself siding with a genocidal monster based on your political position it may be time for some quiet time and a re-think.

And THIS summarizes the whole topic with a dramatically loud mic drop. The sad asterisk is that there are any number of people in most places who actually prefer genocide of those they hate, and embrace the monster. As history sadly underscores. 
 

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Never did I expect a child of the 60s telling me we need to send more Javelins and HIMARS, by name for Pete's sake, to Ukraine in order for there to be peace.

Speaking as “a child of the 60’s”, the wave of social and cultural change usually meant by “the 60’s” began with the Civil Rights movement. That can be overlooked at the distance from the present. The putting bodies on the line for the sake of those being lynched, beaten, hung, and dragged through the streets. We LOVED our country. We simply did not love our political leaders and those who supported their repressive, segregationist policies. And who then led the country into a bizarrely obscure conflict in Asia and eventually a full scale war full of tragedy and horror for all concerned. And after the war’s early stages, that too did not seem to uphold the values and ideals of the country we loved and it’s Constitution. All this can easily be drowned out by the ensuing storm and drang of the mixed up and quite colorful culture wars.

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

And to completely derail things further, ladies and gentlemen we are officially in the First World Balloon War.

If we called them drones instead of “balloons”, the discussions would have a quite different tone. The word “balloon” often carries with it a dismissive sense, a party toy, a clownish display.That is a mistake. The payload is the key. And these overflight payloads are from toys. And snickering about. 
The first and highly publicized shoot down had a payload the size of two busses. The Air Force’s DMSP sat is 25 feet long, but that includes its solar panels. The sensor package weighs 772 pounds. OTOH, the USA NROL-44 is huge in size and expense, but very high altitude geosynchronous orbit, 22,200+ miles. Weighs about five tons. The second shoot down last week had a payload the size of an automobile, and weighed roughly 1,000 pounds. That is at the top end of medium satellites, bordering on the large category. So we can understand that these “balloons” are essentially very slow, steerable flight platforms that carry intelligence payloads of the size and scale of both military and civilian satellites. And do not require enormous and expensive rockets to launch them into orbit, Lastly, their sophisticated sensor suites are far closer to intended targets for optical/camera or signals intelligence purposes. Which means their weight, sensitivity and thus expense can be much less than for comparable orbiting platforms. Bottom line, they aren’t toys.

 

 

[RockinHarry]

Apropos that bolloon thing. No idea if it got postet yet: "

"Worryingly, defense analysts have previously claimed that a balloon could be used as a 'delivery platform' for nuclear weapons. 

•  

The Pentagon said the balloon was floating at around 60,000 feet on Friday afternoon

A 2015 report for the American Leadership & Policy Foundation said balloons launched by rogue states could carry nuclear payloads over the United States which could be use launch strikes or interfere with the electrical grid.

Report author Air Force Major David Stuckenberg wrote: 'Using a balloon as a [weapon of mass destruction] platform could provide adversaries with a pallet of altitudes and payload options with which to maximize offensive effects against the U.S."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11710721/Chinas-spy-balloon-120ft-helium-powered-airship-equipped-snooping-tools.html

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

And THIS summarizes the whole topic with a dramatically loud mic drop. The sad asterisk is that there are any number of people in most places who actually prefer genocide of those they hate, and embrace the monster. As history sadly underscores. 
 

Speaking as “a child of the 60’s”, the wave of social and cultural change usually meant by “the 60’s” began with the Civil Rights movement. That can be overlooked at the distance from the present. The putting bodies on the line for the sake of those being lynched, beaten, hung, and dragged through the streets. We LOVED our country. We simply did not love our political leaders and those who supported their repressive, segregationist policies. And who then led the country into a bizarrely obscure conflict in Asia and eventually a full scale war full of tragedy and horror for all concerned. And after the war’s early stages, that too did not seem to uphold the values and ideals of the country we loved and it’s Constitution. All this can easily be drowned out by the ensuing storm and drang of the mixed up and quite colorful culture wars.

If we called them drones instead of “balloons”, the discussions would have a quite different tone. The word “balloon” often carries with it a dismissive sense, a party toy, a clownish display.That is a mistake. The payload is the key. And these overflight payloads are from toys. And snickering about. 
The first and highly publicized shoot down had a payload the size of two busses. The Air Force’s DMSP sat is 25 feet long, but that includes its solar panels. The sensor package weighs 772 pounds. OTOH, the USA NROL-44 is huge in size and expense, but very high altitude geosynchronous orbit, 22,200+ miles. Weighs about five tons. The second shoot down last week had a payload the size of an automobile, and weighed roughly 1,000 pounds. That is at the top end of medium satellites, bordering on the large category. So we can understand that these “balloons” are essentially very slow, steerable flight platforms that carry intelligence payloads of the size and scale of both military and civilian satellites. And do not require enormous and expensive rockets to launch them into orbit, Lastly, their sophisticated sensor suites are far closer to intended targets for optical/camera or signals intelligence purposes. Which means their weight, sensitivity and thus expense can be much less than for comparable orbiting platforms. Bottom line, they aren’t toys.

 

 

No they are laughably bad penetrating strategic ISR platforms though.  The fact that we spotted and shot down 4 in a week is a pretty good hint.  The major point of a strategic ISR asset is ability to be undetected and failing that deniable, and failing that be too fast for defensive systems to react. And these ridiculous balloons are failing gloriously on all counts.  I mean seriously they have a top speed of about 120 kph…”oh no, the Chinese are slowly advancing to tap into my SkiptheDishes order!”

Seriously.  Sure balloons can be a platform - we used them for tac ISR in Afghanistan (hilarious story there).  For Operational or even Strategic they need stand-off, normally over a safe or friendly nation or international waters…not freakin Lake Huron.  It is not the platform that should be mocked, it is how they are being employed.  In fact the only thing I can think of is that the Chinese must be tunnelling beneath our feet and this is a clever ploy to keep us looking up.

What they have done is creating an escalating diplomatic incident and shore up NORAD funding for the next decade - seriously what is it these authoritarian governments don’t get with western apathy.  Our North Warning System is from the 70s and we have been delaying the billions required for upgrades for years…and then the Chinese start lobbing freaking balloons everywhere.

Bottom line - these sound like some terrible idea that got out in front of policy makers in China and they have some serious cleanup to do.  In fact this feels more North Korean than Chinese to be honest.

Now if China starts putting kinetic payloads on these or somesuch, well then we just entered into “acts of war territory” and balloons will be the last thing we need to worry about.

[The_Capt]

15 minutes ago, RockinHarry said:

Apropos that bolloon thing. No idea if it got postet yet: "

"Worryingly, defense analysts have previously claimed that a balloon could be used as a 'delivery platform' for nuclear weapons. 

•  

The Pentagon said the balloon was floating at around 60,000 feet on Friday afternoon

A 2015 report for the American Leadership & Policy Foundation said balloons launched by rogue states could carry nuclear payloads over the United States which could be use launch strikes or interfere with the electrical grid.

Report author Air Force Major David Stuckenberg wrote: 'Using a balloon as a [weapon of mass destruction] platform could provide adversaries with a pallet of altitudes and payload options with which to maximize offensive effects against the U.S."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11710721/Chinas-spy-balloon-120ft-helium-powered-airship-equipped-snooping-tools.html

Ok, we are officially in a Dr Stangelove sequel here…this has to be a bit.

Of all the ways to deliver a nuclear weapon - bombers, fighters, hypersonic cruise missiles, stealth hypersonic cruise missiles, submarine launched ballistic missiles at short range, long range ballistic missiles etc.  A giant EM shining balloon moving at 120 km per hour is probably right down the list next to “catapult on a barge”.  But wait, the Chinese will put 12 of these together UP style and then hang a nuclear carrier below them…dastardly.  And then they will strap a bunch of African swallows together…

[danfrodo]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

No they are laughably bad penetrating strategic ISR platforms though.  The fact that we spotted and shot down 4 in a week is a pretty good hint.  The major point of a strategic ISR asset is ability to be undetected and failing that deniable, and failing that be too fast for defensive systems to react. And these ridiculous balloons are failing gloriously on all counts.  I mean seriously they have a top speed of about 120 kph…”oh no, the Chinese are slowly advancing to tap into my SkiptheDishes order!”

Seriously.  Sure balloons can be a platform - we used them for tac ISR in Afghanistan (hilarious story there).  For Operational or even Strategic they need stand-off, normally over a safe or friendly nation or international waters…not freakin Lake Huron.  It is not the platform that should be mocked, it is how they are being employed.  In fact the only thing I can think of is that the Chinese must be tunnelling beneath our feet and this is a clever ploy to keep us looking up.

What they have done is creating an escalating diplomatic incident and shore up NORAD funding for the next decade - seriously what is it these authoritarian governments don’t get with western apathy.  Our North Warning System is from the 70s and we have been delaying the billions required for upgrades for years…and then the Chinese start lobbing freaking balloons everywhere.

Bottom line - these sound like some terrible idea that got out in front of policy makers in China and they have some serious cleanup to do.  In fact this feels more North Korean than Chinese to be honest.

Now if China starts putting kinetic payloads on these or somesuch, well then we just entered into “acts of war territory” and balloons will be the last thing we need to worry about.

Preppers are having a field day w all this I am sure.  "they could use nukes to knock out the power grid!!"   Yeah, but wouldn't they just use nukes to nuke us instead?  And they could only knock out a bunch of small areas, which could be really damaging, but not the event the idiots think it would be where every chip in US is fried.

Meanwhile, how stupid is this for China.  The gain is probably negligible or at most minimal but it provokes US into increasing our military spending against China.  And gets more and more corporate decision makers thinking "I need to divest from China, these guys are nuts".  Well, Xi, I hope it's worth it for you, ya damn fool.  You have global capitalism gushing prosperity onto your country and you think maybe you need a no-win war instead because..... why???  what is there to gain w all this foolishness?  Why would one side of two gigantic interconnected trade partners think war over some rocks in the pacific makes sense?  

 

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Preppers are having a field day w all this I am sure.  "they could use nukes to knock out the power grid!!"   Yeah, but wouldn't they just use nukes to nuke us instead?  And they could only knock out a bunch of small areas, which could be really damaging, but not the event the idiots think it would be where every chip in US is fried.

Meanwhile, how stupid is this for China.  The gain is probably negligible or at most minimal but it provokes US into increasing our military spending against China.  And gets more and more corporate decision makers thinking "I need to divest from China, these guys are nuts".  Well, Xi, I hope it's worth it for you, ya damn fool.  You have global capitalism gushing prosperity onto your country and you think maybe you need a no-win war instead because..... why???  what is there to gain w all this foolishness?  Why would one side of two gigantic interconnected trade partners think war over some rocks in the pacific makes sense?  

 

An unpleasant combination of drinking their own propaganda cool-aid, and thinking even the smoking crater where TSMC used to be would somehow grant them an overwhelming advantage in the next round. Putin thought he would take Ukraine in a week and get to tell the U.S. to pack our bags and not let the door hit us in the A%% on the way out of Europe. Apparently Xi nurtures a delusion that Taiwan will work out better for him, somehow. The self licking ice cream cone the dictators live in is just bad for their though processes.

[womble]

And now NORAD have fiddled with the gate parameters on a few signal processing units and the balloons are no longer sneaky, they're not going to be delivering any "kinetic packages" anywhere there's an F-[pick-a-number] within scramble distance...

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

An unpleasant combination of drinking their own propaganda cool-aid, and thinking even the smoking crater where TSMC used to be would somehow grant them an overwhelming advantage in the next round. Putin thought he would take Ukraine in a week and get to tell the U.S. to pack our bags and not let the door hit us in the A%% on the way out of Europe. Apparently Xi nurtures a delusion that Taiwan will work out better for him, somehow. The self licking ice cream cone the dictators live in is just bad for their though processes.

What we need to do is start making virtually every kind of munition there is like there is war on, and just maybe someone will tell Xi this little gamble he is thinking about isn't so little after all. Nothing demonstrates resolve like producing three million rounds of 155  a year, and procuring more of the new precision strike missiles every month than were in last years budget for the whole year. And it yes that is going to take pouring a lot of concrete and ordering a lot of machine tools. It sounds expensive until you look at fighting over Taiwan will cost. The free lunch left with Putin's sanity.