How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Ales Dvorak]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The US tried to let Europe sort out Yugoslavia's breakup and that just did not work.  At all.

Maybe Camp Bondsteel is a payback.

[dan/california]

I have fairly strong hopes that someone is going to come up with combine harvester scale machine to rid agricultural fields of the various smaller nasties after the have been swept for AP mines and unitary artillery rounds. sadly I think a lot of the tree lines and larger forested areas of Eastern Ukraine are just going to be no go ares for fifty years or more.

I do wonder if those African rats that have proven to be excellent mine finders can stand at least summer weather in Ukraine. 

[JonS]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Sure let’s play “bad lies and statics”, it is Saturday.  Sure but DPICM are a fired at a very small percentage compared to HE.  During the Cold War the best that the West could muster was something like 15% of ammunition stocks.  So we basically have an order of magnitude more HE being fired than DPICM.  This is also because DPICM is more deadly than HE, about 10-15 times more effective:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dual-purpose_improved_conventional_munition

 

As to “digging in and hiding quietly”, personal experience does not line up.  Having done live fire Cbt Team training in places like Suffield I can tell you that a lot of 155mm UXOs do not conveniently tuck themselves away.  Driving around them is no joke.  At one point we were spending as much time marking them as we did in attacking.

And to my original argument, you would have to fire a LOT of DPICM to get anywhere near the level of contamination an small AP minefield has, but this has not stopped the Anti-cluster munitions crowd from pushing this apples to oranges issue.  I am definitely not a fan of handing over 40 year old junk DPICM to Ukraine.  But the more modern self-neutralizing stuff meeting the US militaries less than 1% guidelines makes more sense.

No question about the comparison betw DPICM and a-pers mines, but you have also repeatedly made the case that DPICM is no biggie on it's own terms or compared to HE. In the game of duelling links, I'll go with the report in my edited post c.f. wiki

As for personal experience, yeah, sure. I've inadvertently slept next to a 105mm UXO - hutchied up at o-dark o'clock, then was mildly disturbed to see the base end of a round sticking out of the ground just beside my head when I blearily blinked awake at dawn.^ And there is a rather large area of Waiouru that is just closed because of the amount of rounds that have been fired in there and the presumed UXO hazard.  And we had this happen a few years ago, but ... you know. Don't kick UXO. I don't think any of that materially changes my point though - I would feel (and be) far safer wandering around an area of known HE UXO than through any DPCIM target area.

 

^ my guess is that it was probably an inert carrier round from a smoke or illum mission, but I didn't investigate too closely. I just GTFO.

Edited February 12, 2023 by JonS

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, JonS said:

No question about the comparison betw DPICM and a-pers mines, but you have also repeatedly made the case that DPICM is no biggie on it's own terms or compared to HE. In the game of duelling links, I'll go with the report in my edited post c.f. wiki

As for personal experience, yeah, sure. I've inadvertently slept next to a 105mm UXO - hutchied up at o-dark o'clock, then was mildly disturbed to see the base end of a round sticking out of the ground just beside my head when I blearily blinked awake at dawn. And there is a rather large area of Waiouru that is just closed because of the amount of rounds that have been fired in there and the presumed UXO hazard.  And we had this happen a few years ago, but ... you know. Don't kick UXO. I don't think any of that materially changes my point though - I would feel far safer wandering around an area of known HE UXO that through any DPCIM target area.

UXO, tell me about it.  I had a driver take about 3 inches of steel through his right lung from a 155mm whoopsie…that was a crappy night.

It is not that DPICM are “no biggies”, the angry little bastards can really make a mess. It is that they are not a relative biggie in context of the current situation. I stand by the point that their risks are offset by battlefield utility and gains. Further they were conflated with AP mines for crowd funding reasons as opposed to actual reality - but they are also likely in their twilight of utility so no point really marching in the streets.  

I suspect that precision (there is that word we love) HE is making DPICM moot.  Now you need only fire 3 HE rounds and you kill whatever you are shooting at.  But we also do not have enough precision on the battlefield either, so putting DPICM on the menu is starting to look like a good idea, especially when plugged into the C4ISR architecture the UA has.  If we want to meet @LongLeftFlank’s bloodlust, then DPICM will do it without making thing dramatically worse than it already is.

Right now I would not feel safe wandering around anywhere in the Donbas for about 150 years.

[dan/california]

It has not gone well....

[JonS]

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

It is not that DPICM are “no biggies”, the angry little bastards can really make a mess. It is that they are not a relative biggie in context of the current situation. I stand by the point that their risks are offset by battlefield utility and gains.

FWIW, I don't think the additional battlefield utility is that great compared to what UKR already has. And I realise that western Ukraine is already an utter ****show in terms of UXO, but I don't see how making that problem worse helps, given the marginal battlefield utility.

I also realise it's Ukraine's territory and they can do whatever TF they want. But we're all here arguing our perspectives - at one end of the spectrum we have LLF who wants to slather all of western Ukraine in a foot of liquid HE in the hopes of killing one or two more Russians and hang the consequences, while I'm down here at the hippy tree hugging end of the spectrum where we can't help thinking about the post-war phase^, and you're somewhere in the middle.

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Right now I would not feel safe wandering around anywhere in the Donbas for about 150 years.

Amen to that.

 

^ we've already agreed that Ukraine has won this thing, right? In which case we are effectively arguing about what the post-war phase will look like, not whether UKR will exist post-war.

Edited February 12, 2023 by JonS

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, JonS said:

FWIW, I don't think the additional battlefield utility is that great compared to what UKR already has. And I realise that western Ukraine is already an utter ****show in terms of UXO, but I don't see how making that problem worse helps, given the marginal battlefield utility.

I also realise it's Ukraine's territory and they can do whatever TF they want. But we're all here arguing our perspectives - at one end of the spectrum we have LLF who wants to slather all of western Ukraine in a foot of liquid HE in the hopes of killing one or two more Russians and hang the consequences, while I'm down the hippy tree hugging end of the spectrum and can't help thinking about the post-war phase^, and you're somewhere in the middle.

 

^ we've already agreed that Ukraine has won this thing, right? In which case we are effectively arguing about what the post-war phase will look like, not whether UKR will exist post-war.

I guess I am somewhere in the middle then.  The battlefield utility to my mind is in lethality and logistics/sustainment. It has been noted that we do not have an infinite supply of PGM for deep strike manoeuvres-by-firepower so DPICM would make an effective fall back option.  So I am not talking about LLFs burning impulse to chop waves of poorly mobilized infantry into hash, I mean the stuff that ends war quicker like CPs, Comms, EW, ISR and logistics.  Sustainment is fewer rounds to push forward, less wear on guns etc.

Sure Ukraine has won but they have not ended this yet and DPICM may assist in making that go faster.  Now post-conflict, Ukraine is going to have a generational RoW problem.  A few thousand DPICM rounds are going to make it worse but could offfset that if they can assist in ending the war sooner.  Unlike tanks, DPICM make logistics easier, can be employed right away and can do some good at a level high enough to accept risks.  But as you say, ultimately a Ukrainian decision.

[Beleg85]

Craters near Vuhledar, from 10th Feb. Reportedly Russians are TOS-ing the area heavily. Greatest concentration seems to be in (former) "dacha" quarter. Muscovites are slowlly trying to sorround the town through the fields West and East of it, but they are taking further heavy casualties.

Also short read:

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-new-offensive-winter-war-bakhmut-vuhledar/32266536.html

Edited February 12, 2023 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Craters near Vuhledar, from 10th Feb. Reportedly Russians are TOS-ing the area heavily. Greatest concentration seems to be in (former) "dacha" quarter. Muscovites are slowlly trying to sorround the town through the fields West and East of it, but they are taking further heavy casualties.

Also short read:

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-new-offensive-winter-war-bakhmut-vuhledar/32266536.html

Does some sort of massive jamming system drive around with the TOS-1 to keep a drone from finding it, and thus something killing it? It seems like they would be max priority targets, and there range is much shorter than 155, or a lot of other systems for that matter.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

 So I am not talking about LLFs burning impulse to chop waves of poorly mobilized infantry into hash, I mean the stuff that ends war quicker like CPs, Comms, EW, ISR and logistics. 

Hee hee, one moment I'm Cassandra wailing once a month about how all is lost get to the lifeboats and next thing I make @kraze look like a peacenik.

They’ll have me whipped for speaking true, thou'll have me whipped for lying, and sometimes I am whipped for holding my peace. I had rather be any kind o’ thing than a Fool.

[Beleg85]

43 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Does some sort of massive jamming system drive around with the TOS-1 to keep a drone from finding it, and thus something killing it? It seems like they would be max priority targets, and there range is much shorter than 155, or a lot of other systems for that matter.

Also wondered about their use in current phase. Ukrainians can't have eyes everywhere, I guess.

Whole battle around Vuhledar seems very small- there is maybe 800m between Pavlivka and Vuhledar itself, with Ukrainian stations somewhere south and east of the town after successfull counterattacks. So perhaps UA does not have much drone view into Russian positions as it would like, since they almost certainly use here jamming devices over own lines (there was a video of Russian AA missile hitting highest chimney in town, with reportedly Ukrainian cameras installed on top). There is also concentrated regular artillery fire from both sides. Really fierce engagements are taking place in trenches around the city, those muscovite mechanized columns we saw fooked so nicesely around the fields are only part of it.

Whole area has odd topography- Vuhledar is a tight cluster of tall buildins with tiny adiacent cottage district. It almost looks like some medieval tower sorrounded by wide open fields. Strategically it may remind Tall Abyad or Kobane- who controlls it, has excellent view of flat sorroundings, especially on lower terrain south of it.

Edited February 12, 2023 by Beleg85

[chuckdyke]

41 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

They’ll have me whipped for speaking true, thou'll have me whipped for lying, and sometimes I am whipped for holding my peace. I had rather be any kind o’ thing than a Fool.

Yes, nothing is worth your soul, your soul is yours and yours alone. The perception of history is personal and not the version they teach in other countries.

[The_Capt]

54 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Hee hee, one moment I'm Cassandra wailing once a month about how all is lost get to the lifeboats and next thing I make @kraze look like a peacenik.

They’ll have me whipped for speaking true, thou'll have me whipped for lying, and sometimes I am whipped for holding my peace. I had rather be any kind o’ thing than a Fool.

It is ok, all a natural phase of life.  

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/male-menopause/.  Mood swings are a main symptom.

Just know that we are here for you, all in this together and take solace in the fact that when dementia sets in you won’t even remember what “an Internet” is, let alone the nuances around mine warfare.  You will refuse to buy Russian vodka and not even know why.

And then we will all sit and wait for death playing “Combat Mission - Extreme Fishing VR” after Steve cashes the company out.

Edited February 12, 2023 by The_Capt

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And then we will all sit and wait for death playing “Combat Mission

Interesting I am 73 and playing CM since Beyond Overlord. I will qualify soon for my Gold Jubilee. 

[LongLeftFlank]

18 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

It is ok, all a natural phase of life.  

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/male-menopause/.  Mood swings are a main symptom.

Just know that we are here for you, all in this together and take solace in the fact that when dementia sets in you won’t even remember what “an Internet” is, let alone the nuances around mine warfare.  You will refuse to buy Russian vodka and not even know why.

And then we will all sit and wait for death playing “Combat Mission - Extreme Fishing VR” after Steve cashes the company out.

Well the Philippines is the best place to ease into that phase of life, mate. I see ugly old guys all around me like kids in the candy store.  Not my scene personally, but yeah.

My personal experience with mined areas is actually nonzero (Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar), but never handled the buggers, so many thanks for the info. I agree that it sounds like cluster/butterfly munitions do the nasty job I'm thinking of.

...Speaking of CM, I gained a new respect for AP mines when a 1/4 reduced Grenadier platoon stopped 2 fresh US companies cold in la Meauffe on 19 June 1944, with 3 HMGs, plenty of 81mm and about a dozen AP minefields/traps scattered in chokepoints and transit routes.  Historical action, well documented and mapped out, and simple to recreate, though not much 'fun to play' for US so I never released it.

First or second GI hits a bouncing Betty, the rest of his (Green) squad goes to ground and the stonking begins. Repeat, all effing day.

Edited February 12, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[fireship4]

New episode of In Moscow's Shadows is available (https://feeds.buzzsprout.com/1026985.rss), and I thought I'd share an interview with Michael Kofman from 10 days ago as the source wasn't known to me: https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/lockdowntv-with-freddie-sayers.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Well the Philippines is the best place to ease into that phase of life, mate. I see ugly old guys all around me like kids in the candy store.  Not my scene personally, but yeah.

My personal experience with mined areas is actually nonzero (Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar), but never handled the buggers, so many thanks for the info. I agree that it sounds like cluster/butterfly munitions do the nasty job I'm thinking of.

...Speaking of CM, I gained a new respect for AP mines when a 1/4 reduced Grenadier platoon stopped 2 fresh US companies cold in la Meauffe on 19 June 1944, with 3 HMGs, plenty of 81mm and about a dozen AP minefields/traps scattered in chokepoints and transit routes.  Historical action, well documented and mapped out, and simple to recreate, though not much 'fun to play' for US so I never released it.

First or second GI hits a bouncing Betty, the rest of his (Green) squad goes to ground and the stonking begins. Repeat, all effing day.

There is a famous anecdote from Normandy. A captured German soldier with experience on the eastern fronts says "If you used infantry the way the Russians use infantry you would be in Paris by now." A non zero chance a Russian commander would have flogged his people thru the minefield to close with a force that much smaller. Wagner at least still seems to use that approach. I think a lot of Russian generals think they can still use it too. All the evidence though, is that it usually ends badly. The tape from Vulhedar being exhibit A. Nothing on the eastern front was as deadly as drone directed 155. And STAVKA was better at their job, at least from 43 on. Or maybe Stalin just realized he had to LET STAVKA do its job. By which I mean they usually launched attacks where it made sense, and with enough force disparity to succeed. Both traits the Russians have lacked in this war.

 

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

(there was a video of Russian AA missile hitting highest chimney in town, with reportedly Ukrainian cameras installed on top).

Gamey b%%E##@#s, on the other hand I feel justified in my iron rule about hitting the the three highest points on the map. Even if I am short on ammo.

On a slightly more serious note, putting the sensor package from a small drone on every high spot you have seems quite likely to become absolutely standard

[kevinkin]

Has anyone come across an article on how the UA is evacuating and caring for its most serious wounded? For example, is the environment such that helicopters can be used to transport soldiers to well staffed field hospitals having the resources to complete major surgery? I wonder if NATO can provide assistance in this? Perhaps the medical facilities are staged close to the fighting and long range transport is rarely needed. I ask because I don't know. And given how brutal this war is, this would seem to be a big part of its history. Many unnamed heroes behind the lines. It's hard to imagine the stress on the medical system this war must be. We so often discuss weapons procurement, but where are the IV bags, antibiotics, pain killers coming from? I might be able to answer if this were a nice tidy post cold war conflict. But sadly we are in new/old territory now. 

[Zeleban]

13 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Has anyone come across an article on how the UA is evacuating and caring for its most serious wounded? For example, is the environment such that helicopters can be used to transport soldiers to well staffed field hospitals having the resources to complete major surgery? I wonder if NATO can provide assistance in this? Perhaps the medical facilities are staged close to the fighting and long range transport is rarely needed. I ask because I don't know. And given how brutal this war is, this would seem to be a big part of its history. Many unnamed heroes behind the lines. It's hard to imagine the stress on the medical system this war must be. We so often discuss weapons procurement, but where are the IV bags, antibiotics, pain killers coming from? I might be able to answer if this were a nice tidy post cold war conflict. But sadly we are in new/old territory now. 

I immediately recall the hidden penetration of our helicopter pilots into the Azovstal plant to deliver the necessary equipment and also to take out the seriously wounded

[paxromana]

12 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Has anyone come across an article on how the UA is evacuating and caring for its most serious wounded? For example, is the environment such that helicopters can be used to transport soldiers to well staffed field hospitals having the resources to complete major surgery? I wonder if NATO can provide assistance in this? Perhaps the medical facilities are staged close to the fighting and long range transport is rarely needed. I ask because I don't know. And given how brutal this war is, this would seem to be a big part of its history. Many unnamed heroes behind the lines. It's hard to imagine the stress on the medical system this war must be. We so often discuss weapons procurement, but where are the IV bags, antibiotics, pain killers coming from? I might be able to answer if this were a nice tidy post cold war conflict. But sadly we are in new/old territory now. 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/31/ukraine-military-medicine-russia-war/

https://www.vice.com/en/article/n7z44d/ukraine-medics-russia-war

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/germany-will-transfer-36-medevac-vehicles-to-the-ukrainian-military/

https://reliefweb.int/map/ukraine/russias-war-ukraine-medevac-operations-dg-echo-daily-map-10012023

The above was a result of a quick internet search - roughly in order of usefulness (IMO) ... except for the last which is about all types of medical evacuation out of Ukraine which is not really what you're asking, but interesting to know.

[Aragorn2002]

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2023/02/10/significantly-degraded-russian-force-is-adapting-after-losses/

https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/aktuelles/meldungen/nachgefragt-gespraeche-zum-ukrainekrieg

Edited February 12, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[_Morpheus_]

At the end he is complaining that `... on russian TV everything is good and russians are the best...`

[kevinkin]

Thanks guys. Let's pray that the attention is robust. But I fear there are many horror stories. The world was not ready for the carnage. Is it ever?

 

[Aragorn2002]

42 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Has anyone come across an article on how the UA is evacuating and caring for its most serious wounded? For example, is the environment such that helicopters can be used to transport soldiers to well staffed field hospitals having the resources to complete major surgery? I wonder if NATO can provide assistance in this? Perhaps the medical facilities are staged close to the fighting and long range transport is rarely needed. I ask because I don't know. And given how brutal this war is, this would seem to be a big part of its history. Many unnamed heroes behind the lines. It's hard to imagine the stress on the medical system this war must be. We so often discuss weapons procurement, but where are the IV bags, antibiotics, pain killers coming from? I might be able to answer if this were a nice tidy post cold war conflict. But sadly we are in new/old territory now. 

Ukrainian wounded are already treated all over Europe at this very moment.

[kevinkin]

Good to know. Any idea if this is care at civilian or military (NATO) facilities? Are hospitals in European capitols accepting the wounded through an extensive network of burden sharing?