How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

15 minutes ago, kraze said:

"Some volunteers" doesn't equal reliable.

If we suffered 1:1 losses - the town would've been lost by now.

Already in December I have seen the info that our losses around Bakhmut approached to the level of combat losses during 8 years of ATO. This is at least 3500 men.

The town still holding because of continous rotations of troops. Else we would be already lost several brigades there... 

[Haiduk]

24 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Ukraine might also quietly offer a similar path to select Russian PoWs, with a new identity,  Ukrainian citizenship and clean slate as a reward.  But again, those silly treaties and conventions do stand in the way.

Already did. Battalion "Free Russia" 

[Rokko]

39 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

That is very interesting! Any explanation why the Russians have gotten better?  Have they managed to obtain artillery advantage once more?  Or are VDV/ Wagner tactics working?

 

30 minutes ago, kraze said:

"Some volunteers" doesn't equal reliable.

If we suffered 1:1 losses - the town would've been lost by now.

It may be worse than what can be reasonably considered as acceptable for a defensive battle like this, though.

The way it seems to me, defensive battles become riskier and lead to increasing numbers of casualties for the defender over time, basically as prepared defenses, fortifications, etc. degrade and get progressively more shot up and therefore less effective.

Also, with deteriorating overall situation, individual positions probably get overrun more often (leading to high casualties), necessitating local counter-attacks, which is also riskier. In addition, the attacker has superiority in indirect fires (pretty much an established fact for Bakhmut), making *any* kind of movement riskier, i.e., especially these localized withdrawals and counterattacks.

The following are pretty much my own amateur conclusions and may well be off, but to me it seems the biggest mistake, so to speak, a defender can make is to stick in the fight for too long, fighting for too long to cling to or even recapture shot up positions, ruining the "exchange ratio" over time and messing up the attrition calculus, likely due to sunk-cost-fallacy. There are some harrowing descriptions in Storms of Steel from the Battle of the Somme that particularly stuck with me, of command sending company upon company into some totally untenable and destroyed position just to be smashed, either en route or on top of the previous occupants. Any resemblance of an effective defense from that point had long become impossible, as trenches had been smashed up, fields of fire altered by artillery terraforming, etc.

And this does not even include any form of operational collapse of defensive, as the enemy begins to bypass remaining strong points, as we may start to see in the near future or are already starting to see around Bakhmut.

EDIT: According to Wikipedia, casualty ratio for the entire Battle of the Somme was about 1.4:1, which seems pretty bad for a defensive battle and I'd wager that ratio much more favorable when the battle began in July and got progressively worse, as reserves were fed into counter-attacks and shot up positions

Edited February 10, 2023 by Rokko

[Beleg85]

24 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

There have been reports that the intiital UKR force in Bakhmut was around 30.000.

On 10 January 2023, Polish think tank Rochan Consulting estimated Ukraine may have ten brigades fighting in Bakhmut, or around 30,000 personnel.

I understand this includes artillery crews and reserves that could be outside the ring but, has any part of the main force withdrawn to avoid encriclement or Ukraine is going to sacrifice this huge capable force to the last man? 

Fighting in the area, to be precise. City is probably manned by only part of it; a lot of forces and fighting is done in valleys, hills and fields sorrounding the city, where its fate is decided. And K.Muzyka (guy who run this think tank) admitted that Ukrainians constantly rotate their units, so at this point there is probably not a single full brigade in line.

Btw. in this war we still did not see a single full encirclement on any side yet. Even at Severdonetsk, where situation was really bad, overwhelming number of defenders managed to slip out. Russians at Izyum and Lyman were able partly to escape as well. That is because probably armies are mechanized/motorize now and rarely travel on foot large distances.

 

Edited February 10, 2023 by Beleg85

[LongLeftFlank]

49 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

After some threshhold the qauantity transforms to quality. Our soldiers describes Wagners attacks like zerg-rash. These are not "human waves" in usual sence. They attacks with small assault groups from different directions, infiltrate, wear UKR uniform and they do this continuously. You just have foled attack of one group, but since some time already another come from other direction.

In whole Wagners, tactic is standart. First attacking groups are convicts. Their task to reveal our positions and fire positions. Then arty fire, airstrikes. Then next wave of attack, but convicts+"core". Next again arty+avia. Repeat untill. At the end phase Wagners ususally unleash own best fighters to finally elimenate resistance or to force our troops to retreat. Also I already wrote that Wagners widely use drones for battlefield control, when detachment commander sit in own blindage and formally plays in CM with live soldiers, using special software. UKR troops mostly use frones in that cases only for visaul spotting and targeting. Except this own role play high professional and motivation level of commanders on all levels - if to say about "core". Convicted personnel (but loke and all other) has main motivation - do not be shot or sledghammered for retreating without order.

Other strong side of Wagners - since autumn they received many newest equipment, including drones with thermal sights, thermal optics for rifles, etc, so many their advances happaned in the night

Sounds to me like lots of indifferently trained men under tremendoous stress walking or scrambling around -- maybe even being herded at gunpoint -- at night in shattered, rubbish filled, unknown no-mans land.

...Guys, this tactical problem was SOLVED -- or rendered massively more costly for the Stosstruppen -- over a century ago, with AP landmines. Blow off some legs, alerting everyone and driving the rest to ground, then plaster them with whatever is handy (rifle grenades, mortars, 155mm). Next wave faces the exact same problem in the exact same spot.

Post-Vietnam FASCAM and Bloc-equivalent air and artillery cluster munitions scattered across enemy tactical axes of advance (and in CI situations, supply lines) was a useful and highly lethal improvement, although leaving a deadly legacy for postwar populations (as noted). 

Sure, not a panacea, but it freeking helps.

So it's either Western norms fairy (sans total air superiority, for now), or the lives of your bravest sons, plus still more of your country churned into a wasteland.

Edited February 10, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Lethaface]

3 hours ago, Butschi said:

I don't really know how different the various parts of the Netherlands are. Germany is a federal state and we all (ok, most, ignore those Bavarians...) feel as Germans first while (mostly, Saxony is certainly far less well regarded than Bavaria) not trying to suppress our regional backgrounds. EU shouldn't (and doesn't) dictate culture and such. But this "we want to keep our cultural identity, EU should be about economics and nothing more" is often just an excuse for national egotism. And that is something we cannot afford. If we continue to be a more or less loose collection of countries with economic ties, this is a recipe for international insignificance. We have to learn to be a united entity and I think that will only work if we see ourselves as Europeans first and German, Dutch, Polish, you name it, second. On the international floor, each European country by itself is probably as influential as the Texas or California - well, some more like Connecticut, I think.

I agree. Plus culturally we (in Europe) are more alike when we realize probably. One only needs to travel the world to find out. And @Huba there is bigotry / xenophobia everywhere. I'm sure there is as much contempt and bigotry going both sides. While there are certainly people here looking down on Eastern Europeans, there are much more looking down at Arabs and Africans. It's all dumb xenophobia, usually on the side of people who face hardships and need a scapegoat (where did we see that before).
But fortunately there are still more people, not always as vocal, who don't look down on other people because of things they have no control. And there is actually quite some warm memories about Polish troops in quite some parts of our country.

In this thread I've saw more generalizations regarding Western Europeans then Eastern Europeans fwiw. Maybe because I'm western european? I usually don't really care much about generalizations though, because they're of limited value.
And while I don't agree with the wording Aragorn used, the Polish government has indeed taken steps to abolish the autonomy of the courts (and thus trias politicas) and 'some issues' about EU legislation which basically amount to a cancellation / breach of contract. I don't want to mention gaming the EU system, many countries are into that. Recently your government is talking a lot about other countries. I'm not a fan of that tbh. But what goes around comes around.

Edited February 10, 2023 by Lethaface

[Haiduk]

30 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I can hardly believe that's true when Russians are basically doing suicide attacks in human waves against well prepared and highly motivated Ukrainian positions. But I'm not a volunteer at the front line. Is there any more info about how Ukraine would lose that many soldiers?

Look at my two answers to Maciej and Kraze.

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

I agree. Plus culturally we (in Europe) are more alike when we realize probably. One only needs to travel the world to find out. And @Huba there is bigotry / xenophobia everywhere. I'm sure there is as much contempt and bigotry going both sides. While there are certainly people here looking down on Eastern Europeans, there are much more looking down at Arabs and Africans. It's all dumb xenophobia, usually on the side of people who face hardships and need a scapegoat (where did we see that before).
But fortunately there are still more people, not always as vocal, who don't look down on other people because of things they have no control. And there is actually quite some warm memories about Polish troops in quite some parts of our country.

In this thread I've saw more generalizations regarding Western Europeans then Eastern Europeans fwiw. Maybe because I'm western european? I usually don't really care much about generalizations though, because they're of limited value.
And while I don't agree with the wording Aragorn used, the Polish government has indeed taken steps to abolish the autonomy of the courts and 'some issues' about EU legislation which basically amount to a cancellation / breach of contract. I don't want to mention gaming the EU system, many countries are into that. Recently your government is talking a lot about other countries. I'm not a fan of that tbh. But what goes around comes around.

I agree wholeheartedly with your post. I only had problem with singling out the situation in PL as The Problem that EU has at the moment (Hungary, anyone?), hence the jab back just to keep the balance  

[Zeleban]

41 minutes ago, kraze said:

"Some volunteers" doesn't equal reliable.

If we suffered 1:1 losses - the town would've been lost by now.

I think so too. Based on the information of this volunteer, it is not Russia that is engaged in wave attacks on our positions, but rather Ukraine. I would agree with this if the Russians managed to surround part of our forces in the Bakhmut area and take them prisoner. But it doesn't seem to be happening. The overwhelming advantage in drones over Ukraine is also not noticeable.

On the other hand, some volunteers made such statements in order to keep people in the rear in suspense, demonstrating the need for new volunteers.

On the other hand, some volunteers related to the political party of former President Poroshenko made defeatist statements in order to criticize the current government of President Zelensky. We all remember the sensational story about the alleged confrontation between Generals Zaluzhny and Syrsky, which turned out to be fake.

[Aragorn2002]

25 minutes ago, Huba said:

I agree wholeheartedly with your post. I only had problem with singling out the situation in PL as The Problem that EU has at the moment (Hungary, anyone?), hence the jab back just to keep the balance  

Well, let me say this then. We're all Europeans and we need each other. Now more than ever. And after all is said and done, the EU is working. Simple as that. 

I don't dislike or despise Poland nor Hungary, just it's present government. As Butschi so enviable eloquently put it: "The EU is not only about economical integration, but also about political integration".

Edited February 10, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[Zeleban]

37 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Already in December I have seen the info that our losses around Bakhmut approached to the level of combat losses during 8 years of ATO. This is at least 3500 men.

The town still holding because of continous rotations of troops. Else we would be already lost several brigades there... 

General losses or irretrievable?

[Bulletpoint]

51 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

In whole Wagners, tactic is standart. First attacking groups are convicts. Their task to reveal our positions and fire positions. Then arty fire, airstrikes. Then next wave of attack, but convicts+"core". Next again arty+avia. Repeat untill. At the end phase Wagners ususally unleash own best fighters to finally elimenate resistance or to force our troops to retreat.

It sounds a lot like the old Soviet tactics. There was a guy on this forum who did a long thread about it years ago. Can't remember what his name was, but I thought it was interesting.

[Huba]

16 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Well, let me say this then. We're all Europeans and we need each other. Now more than ever. And after all is said and done, the EU is working. Simple as that. 

I don't dislike or despise Poland nor Hungary, just it's present government. As Butschi so enviable eloquently put it: "The EU is not only about economical integration, but also about political integration".

All true. It is sad that in the present state of democracies (some more than other I guess...) everything is partisan and can be sacrificed for the temporary political gain of a single group/ party. Unfortunately for PL, with current gov this includes the independence of the judicary and acknowledging the importance of EU unity. "Old Europe" is not immune to that either, with Brexit being the chief example. The form might be a little different with PL and HU choosing to be openly obnoxious in their behaviour

Edited February 10, 2023 by Huba

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Thanks. I´m pretty sure that the truth will see the light here sooner or later.

Yeah, there's the political way of formulating reasons and the real reason. She said NL policy would like to deliver, but under the lease contract the German government decided that isn't allowed and that it was a military decision.

Sending them basically would mean the 1. Panzer Division will lose one of it's tank battalions and with many of the other formations already posted towards the East, it would undermine/endanger (whatever) the ability to train. I read some about that today but can't find the link anymore.

Imo the army said no we need these tanks, probably both the Dutch and the German army. To be honest that's what I expected to begin with, before our government was talking about thinking of buying the leased tanks and sending them off.

[LongLeftFlank]

17 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

It sounds a lot like the old Soviet tactics. There was a guy on this forum who did a long thread about it years ago. Can't remember what his name was, but I thought it was interesting.

This one?

I have a 350 page compendium of excerpted posts on historical WW2 strategy, operations and tactics, heavily JasonC but also Andreas and many others.

Edited February 10, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Zeleban]

 

Interestingly, I have not previously seen evidence of the use of ATGMs with BTR-4

[Bulletpoint]

9 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

This one?

 

 

A different thread I think, but by the same guy.

[Aragorn2002]

12 minutes ago, Huba said:

All true. It is sad that in the present state of democracies (some more than other I guess...) everything is partisan and can be sacrificed for the temporary political gain of a single group/ party. Unfortunately for PL, with current gov this includes the independence of the judicary and acknowledging the importance of EU unity. "Old Europe" is not immune to that either, with Brexit being the chief example. The form might be a little different with PL and HU choosing to be openly obnoxious in their behaviour

Well, with regard to Poland I can honestly say I sleep a lot better knowing you guys are watching the Eastern flank. In combination with the growing rapid deployment forces from Germany, Netherlands, Britain and other NATO countries, that means Good old Europe is safe for the moment. But I'm a pessimist, I think Europe's problems have just begun, even if Ukraine joins EU/NATO.

[Aragorn2002]

14 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Yeah, there's the political way of formulating reasons and the real reason. She said NL policy would like to deliver, but under the lease contract the German government decided that isn't allowed and that it was a military decision.

Sending them basically would mean the 1. Panzer Division will lose one of it's tank battalions and with many of the other formations already posted towards the East, it would undermine/endanger (whatever) the ability to train. I read some about that today but can't find the link anymore.

Imo the army said no we need these tanks, probably both the Dutch and the German army. To be honest that's what I expected to begin with, before our government was talking about thinking of buying the leased tanks and sending them off.

Sound thinking too. We have a lot to catch up and perhaps less time than we hope. Ukraine will get all it needs to beat those bastards, of that I'm convinced.

Edited February 10, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[Kinophile]

I'm curious about UKR command in the Donbass. 

There were already indications of command conflict ref Soledar, and now I've seen other rumors ref Bakhmut.

Is Syrrsky the overall eastern/Donbass front commander? If not, who is? He already stepped in at Soledar,and he's no fool, so I wonder if it's quality of leadership or personality clashes that is the issue. 

My impression is that Fractured leadership is extremely dangerous in a defensive force,  it opens cracks and delays responses, where as Attacking forces can mask the issues through sheer momentum and pressure. 

 

 

[Zeleban]

1 minute ago, Kinophile said:

I'm curious about UKR command in the Donbass. 

There were already indications of command conflict ref Soledar, and now I've seen other rumors ref Bakhmut.

Is Syrrsky the overall eastern/Donbass front commander? If not, who is? He already stepped in at Soledar,and he's no fool, so I wonder if it's quality of leadership or personality clashes that is the issue. 

My impression is that Fractured leadership is extremely dangerous in a defensive force,  it opens cracks and delays responses, where as Attacking forces can mask the issues through sheer momentum and pressure. 

 

 

Leadership problems are an old tale from Poroshenko's supporters. There have been several rebuttals of this before.

[Lethaface]

52 minutes ago, Huba said:

I agree wholeheartedly with your post. I only had problem with singling out the situation in PL as The Problem that EU has at the moment (Hungary, anyone?), hence the jab back just to keep the balance  

Understood
And indeed Orban is beyond a problem. He / his clique already have consolidated (in)direct ownership of virtually all Hungarian media. That's not unlike how Putin consolidated his power.

Luckily there are plenty of Hungarians seeing the danger, but unfortunately they are too divided and Orban has mastered the bread & games to get enough votes to stay in power. Obviously helped by his control of the media. 

On the whole I'm more positive about EU compared to a year ago. Perhaps Ukraine and Ukrainians can also help the unity and show/remind us about the real/big issues and what are more side issues. My glass is usually half full though (instead of half empty), I prefer it that way. 

[Seminole]

4 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

This is what they are dealing with. 

 

Burns diplomatic cable in 2008 is as pertinent as ever.  

The idea that NATO expansion wouldn’t cause what everyone predicted it did is weird revisionism.  
 

NATO expansion has served the neocons purpose.  Russia felt threatened and has ‘growled and shown her teeth’.  
 

Who (besides everybody) could have seen this coming?

[Lethaface]

33 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

It sounds a lot like the old Soviet tactics. There was a guy on this forum who did a long thread about it years ago. Can't remember what his name was, but I thought it was interesting.

Perhaps JasonC is who you are referring to?

[Tenses]

24 minutes ago, Huba said:

All true. It is sad that in the present state of democracies (some more than other I guess...) everything is partisan and can be sacrificed for the temporary political gain of a single group/ party. Unfortunately for PL, with current gov this includes the independence of the judicary and acknowledging the importance of EU unity. "Old Europe" is not immune to that either, with Brexit being the chief example. The form might be a little different with PL and HU choosing to be openly obnoxious in their behaviour

As a Pole, I can also confirm this. Democracies around the World needs to change in order tu survive. And the problem is as old as any goverment - too much power. From absolutism, through monarchy up to democratic republic there are just some things, which should be not allowed even with having majority in place. Good constitution can probably take care of it but the problems described in it should be taken seriously.

In regard to PL, I can only say that it is not any more uniform than other countries so current goverment doesn't have that much support as it might be looking like from abroad. And hopefully this will at least partially change in the nearest future.