How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[JonS]

Russian missile strike underway

Air raid alerts have been declared in all of Ukraine; At least 17 Russian missiles target energy infrastructure in south-eastern city, mayor says

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/feb/10/russia-ukraine-war-zaporizhzhia-hit-by-largest-missile-strike-fighter-jets-not-a-priority-says-macron-live?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Edited February 10, 2023 by JonS

[Butschi]

14 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

You're a braver man than I am, Butschi.

Well, I'm not always on board with your opinions but those are the big fault lines within the EU. No point in pretending otherwise. To be fair, I said "considered" and such because point of view matters a bit here. And it is not like the Southern and Eastern camp don't have less than flattering things to tell about us.

[JonS]

3 hours ago, chrisl said:

I don't think the fighter/bomber is any deader than the tank (and probably less), but it's subject to the same kind of conditions as the future of tanks.  The biggest is that it depends on asymmetry of technology and doctrine.  The jets and aerodynamics are pretty mature all around, but attack aircraft are part of a system, just like tanks are part of a system.  NATO/US don't just send fancy fighter/bombers off on their own - there are a ton of support systems, starting with the satellite ISR, then GlobalHawlks, and the various B707 based radar and command systems. E-3 for airborne monitoring and traffic control, the E-8 JSTARS to monitor things on the ground, EA-18s for SEAD, and so on.  They're all part of an interconnected system that makes it possible to reach out and touch someone with as little risk as possible to the guys driving them around.  Just like you can't just load up a bunch of M1 tanks on trains and ship them into Ukraine and expect them to be effective, you can't just drop off a bunch of F-35s (or F-15s, F-16s, or FA-18s, Typhoons, etc) without all the stuff that helps them do the things they do.  But if you have that whole set of toys and the doctrine to suppress the defenses around a volume of space, you can then use that space to deliver very high precision pain.

Which is exactly why reporting like this is so exasperating

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/09/ukraine-fighter-pilot-i-could-learn-to-fly-western-jet-within-three-months-vadym-voroshylov?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

He reminds me of that old joke: how would you know if there's a fighter pilot at the party you're at?

Edited February 10, 2023 by JonS

[Butschi]

8 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

You are right the translator let me down. I have automatic translation from google. otherwise I would never have been able to keep up with this forum thread

Fair enough. Btw. I think this https://www.deepl.com/de/translator is a way better translator than google. But then it doesn't do live translation of website, I think. Anyway, good point, I think we often forget how much can get lost in translation here.

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Although Poland at the moment is trying to picture itself as the frontier of Western values, it is justifiably seen in the rest of Europe as undemocratic, self centred, greedy and more and more dictatorial. This is one of the biggest threats to European unity for the future and a factor the rest of Europe can't afford to ignore. Combine that with the confusing political situation in the US and the uncertainty after the next elections there and one may begin to understand the European dilemma.

It's great that the only issue with EU unity you see is Poland and you are so confident that you preach that as a fact. It might sound a little prejudiced to some, but we all know you mean well -  after all bigotry and contempt for the CEE people are not a EU problem, especially in NL, right? Love you too buddy

Edited February 10, 2023 by Huba

[Zeleban]

9 minutes ago, JonS said:

Russian missile strike underway

Air raid alerts have been declared in all of Ukraine; At least 17 Russian missiles target energy infrastructure in south-eastern city, mayor says

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/feb/10/russia-ukraine-war-zaporizhzhia-hit-by-largest-missile-strike-fighter-jets-not-a-priority-says-macron-live?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Yes, I heard two loud explosions about an hour ago. It looks like air defense, the explosions in the air are very loud, because nothing prevents the sound from spreading

[Butschi]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

It's great that the only issue with EU unity you see is Poland and are so confident that you preach that as fact. It might sound a little prejudiced to some, but we all know you mean well -  after all bigotry and contempt for the CEE people are not a EU problem, right? Love you too buddy

Sure, EU has a train load of other problems. But you have to admit that not many countries managed to trigger article 7 (Rule of law) so far. And that is one of the biggest problems the EU has right now, at least internally.

[Yskonyn]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Although Poland at the moment is trying to picture itself as the frontier of Western values, it is justifiably seen in the rest of Europe as undemocratic, self centred, greedy and more and more dictatorial. This is one of the biggest threats to European unity for the future and a factor the rest of Europe can't afford to ignore. Combine that with the confusing political situation in the US and the uncertainty after the next elections there and one may begin to understand the European dilemma.

When it comes to unity I don't have to explain to an American how complicated and difficult that can be. All in all I think the EU has performed a very impressive show in that respect since ww2, unparalled in modern history. The same goes for the European aid to Ukraine, which is equally unparalled. Countries weakening their own defence to strengthen that of another country. I call that damned impressive.

Excellent first point!
And as you said a little later; there also is a EU after this war to be considered.

(And Huba has a great point too, Poland is certainly not the 'only problem' the EU has. No discussion here.)

On 'Countries weakening their own defence'; is this actually the case? I think we've also establsihed in this thread that were it not for western equipment to be made available to Ukraine the flow of this war might have gone very differently, did we not?

So in what manner is 'our defense' linked to 'Ukraine's defense' in that sense? And I am not talking about the front here specifically, but the broader aspect.
In terms of territory countries like the Netherlands, France, Belgium, Italy, Greece or Spain and Portugal don't need to protect their borders directly from Russian aggression (at this point anyway), but I can imagine Germany might feel differently about this. Poland is quite clearly in a different position as well. 

But that's why we have NATO, don't we? It's not about the individual countries. 
The criticism about how effective the EU is, how much power Brussel has and how much we hate Brussel deciding for us on a national level is easy in peace time, but I am glad to see when the **** hits the fan the EU seems to be several levels more efficient and with resolve than I had anticipated.

It might still come across as a very slow moving political entity, but if you pauze for a moment and reflect on how many countries are involved, I find it rather impressive actually.
Also let's not forget the EU is still very young as an entity and has been under constant change and evolution.

We've discussed before what a 'European' is. A term often used by our American friends. Seeing Europe is visiting Madrid and Amsterdam in one trip. No it doesn't, really. I am trying to illustrate my meaning here, not trying to be abrasive.
My gauge is that most people don't 'feel' they are 'a' European. They are Spanish, Dutch, German, etc, but are part of Europe. Not as cultural identity, but as a political, military and monetary alliance of sorts.

Edited February 10, 2023 by Yskonyn

[Zeleban]

Pretty good shooting in my opinion. The fighter constantly changes position for fear of a retaliatory hit.

[Zeleban]

 

[Butschi]

4 minutes ago, Yskonyn said:

My gauge is that most people don't 'feel' they are 'a' European. They are Spanish, Dutch, German, etc, but are part of Europe. Not as cultural identity, but as a political, military and monetary alliance of sorts.

And that is really sad. Somewhere between 2000 and 2010 we had a phase where many people I know felt more like Europeans with roots in their specific countries. I was in an academic environment then that was very international to start with, so take that with a pinch of salt, I guess.

[Bulletpoint]

How is it possible that Krasna Hora still holds? I don't hear much from there, but the situation seems really bad.

 

 

[Yskonyn]

15 minutes ago, Butschi said:

And that is really sad. Somewhere between 2000 and 2010 we had a phase where many people I know felt more like Europeans with roots in their specific countries. I was in an academic environment then that was very international to start with, so take that with a pinch of salt, I guess.

I don't think it's sad at all. I think we have been trying to push square pegs into round holes for a long time.

The EU works much better if we recognise we are different people and use this for cross-pollination to advance universally as the EU while still keeping mind that we all have different roots, social constructs, habits, etc. as nationalities. Brussels outstretched paws to influence national politics have been reduced in a last years and I feel the strain has been reduced and the sentiment towards the EU has improved, at least here in Holland.

A cooperation rather than a unification works better. At least I think so.

Edited February 10, 2023 by Yskonyn

[chuckdyke]

This is what they are dealing with. 

 

[Ales Dvorak]

15 hours ago, kraze said:

Yes a guy, who denies russian warcrimes and is using "anonymous sources" as a proof - is definitely a trustworthy source. I got a twitter-load of these.

I do believe you have strong and reliable info source on " Russia did it ".

[Zeleban]

 

The situation in Bakhmut from a soldier of the 93rd mechanized brigade

[Zeleban]

3 minutes ago, Ales Dvorak said:

I do believe you have strong and reliable info source on " Russia did it ".

 

Our main source of truthful information is the assessment of any situation in terms of logic. As you can see, soon after the publication of the post, very soon there were many indirect facts that the article you published turned out to be false. We all know a lot of sabotage and attempts to destabilize the situation in European countries carried out by Russia recently (for example, the FSB operation in Salisbury). If it’s not difficult for you, bring similar operations carried out by the US intelligence services?

[Butschi]

1 minute ago, Yskonyn said:

I don't think it's sad at all. I think we have been trying to push square pegs into round holes for a long time.

The EU works much better if we recognise we are different people and use this for cross-pollination to advance universally as the EU while still keeping mind that we all have different roots, social constructs, habits, etc. Brussels outstretched paws to influence national politics have been reduced in a last years and I feel the strain has been reduced and the sentiment towards the EU has improved, at least here in Holland.

A cooperation rather than a unification works better. At least I think so.

I don't really know how different the various parts of the Netherlands are. Germany is a federal state and we all (ok, most, ignore those Bavarians...) feel as Germans first while (mostly, Saxony is certainly far less well regarded than Bavaria) not trying to suppress our regional backgrounds. EU shouldn't (and doesn't) dictate culture and such. But this "we want to keep our cultural identity, EU should be about economics and nothing more" is often just an excuse for national egotism. And that is something we cannot afford. If we continue to be a more or less loose collection of countries with economic ties, this is a recipe for international insignificance. We have to learn to be a united entity and I think that will only work if we see ourselves as Europeans first and German, Dutch, Polish, you name it, second. On the international floor, each European country by itself is probably as influential as the Texas or California - well, some more like Connecticut, I think.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

How is it possible that Krasna Hora still holds? I don't hear much from there, but the situation seems really bad.

 

 

 

To hazard a guess:

1. UA elite rearguards are now striving (and bleeding) to extract the maximum possible price in mobik blood (and secondarily, RU heavy bombardment expenditure) before vacating these fortified positions. Same goes for Bahmut itself. 

2. I trust they will also leave behind an endless nightmare of lethal mines, traps and motion sensors aimed as much at Russia's diminishing number of trained sappers as at the cannon fodder.  Civilians must be compelled to leave, and stray animals shot. Free Fire Zone 2023 style, 20km deep. Enjoy your new conquered 'Russian lands', b*tch*z.

3. These actions also buy UA time to shore up and harden (pour cement and sow mines) on their next line of defence (although I'd guess that's been in hand since November).

No breakthrough to the 'Green Fields Beyond'.

[Butschi]

6 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

Our main source of truthful information is the assessment of any situation in terms of logic. As you can see, soon after the publication of the post, very soon there were many indirect facts that the article you published turned out to be false. We all know a lot of sabotage and attempts to destabilize the situation in European countries carried out by Russia recently (for example, the FSB operation in Salisbury). If it’s not difficult for you, bring similar operations carried out by the US intelligence services?

Take any Southern American country and you have a decent chance of finding a few dubious operations. But let's not go down that road.

Edited February 10, 2023 by Butschi

[CHEqTRO]

28 minutes ago, Yskonyn said:

A cooperation rather than a unification works better. At least I think so.

Unification is the most complete form of cooperation. Anything short of that would always be a half-work done, weak and popense to disentegration. Also, if we arrive to the point of sharing the same army, economy and politics, wouldnt our suppossed independence just be ceremonial at that point?

Edited February 10, 2023 by CHEqTRO

[Zeleban]

3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Take any Southern American country and you have a decent chance of finding a few such operations. But let's not go down that road.

Seriously? Perhaps you mean the fight against drug cartels? Agree. The drug trade is a very important part of the modern world. Fighting her is unacceptable.

[Zeleban]

 

So, it seems that NATO is gradually becoming a territory through which missile strikes are launched against Ukraine. Zaluzhny said that during today's missile attacks, Russian missiles crossed Romanian airspace

[Yskonyn]

14 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I don't really know how different the various parts of the Netherlands are. Germany is a federal state and we all (ok, most, ignore those Bavarians...) feel as Germans first while (mostly, Saxony is certainly far less well regarded than Bavaria) not trying to suppress our regional backgrounds. EU shouldn't (and doesn't) dictate culture and such. But this "we want to keep our cultural identity, EU should be about economics and nothing more" is often just an excuse for national egotism. And that is something we cannot afford. If we continue to be a more or less loose collection of countries with economic ties, this is a recipe for international insignificance. We have to learn to be a united entity and I think that will only work if we see ourselves as Europeans first and German, Dutch, Polish, you name it, second. On the international floor, each European country by itself is probably as influential as the Texas or California - well, some more like Connecticut, I think.

For a small country like Holland we have suprisingly many subcultures, just look at the history of the Netherlands and it's immediately clear. Friesland, Limburg, 'Randstad' vs more rural areas all have very different 'cultures' and worldly views. Still we are united as a single country.

And that's my point as well; you flatten the point to just being one of economical ties with regards to the sentiment of EU, but that's not what I mean. I agree with your statement that if that were the case, it would be a recipe of international insignificance.

If we look at the current situation and how the EU operates with regards to the Russian aggression I think we can agree that its not just economic ties that make the EU work.

But the narrative of 'being European' has changed over the past years from being this utopian united people towards a view of more regards for the people themselves that should make up this 'European identity' and how we can leverage this to make the EU work (even better). And that's a good thing imo.

Edited February 10, 2023 by Yskonyn

[CHEqTRO]

1 minute ago, Zeleban said:

Seriously? Perhaps you mean the fight against drug cartels? Agree. The drug trade is a very important part of the modern world. Fighting her is unacceptable.

There are more latin-american countries other than Mexico, you know right?