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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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1 minute ago, dan/california said:

The A10s apparently need SEAD support than they are likely to get in this war. I am not saying they wouldn't be of some use, but they couldn't be used aggressively enough to REALLY change the balance. If we are going to give the Medvedev an embolism, ATACMS is the the thing that could be going boom on Monday morning.

This. Without SEAD it wont work. Regardless which western jet you favour.

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5 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think the A-10 was designed to withstand small arms, not missiles. It's a pretty slow airplane, vulnerable to MANPADs.

Also it was made to hunt tanks. And Russia doesn't really have many tanks left to hunt. And the ones that are left are no real problem.

Heck, not even the ones they started out with posed much of a problem.

 

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The A10s apparently need SEAD support than they are likely to get in this war. I am not saying they wouldn't be of some use, but they couldn't be used aggressively enough to REALLY change the balance. If we are going to give the Medvedev an embolism, ATACMS is the the thing that could be going boom on Monday morning.

Hmm good points and apparently Ukrainian pilots who have previously flown the frogfoot might be disappointed with the new bird https://www.google.com/amp/s/theaviationgeekclub.com/su-25-vs-a-10-heres-why-the-frogfoot-might-be-better-suited-than-the-warthog-for-cas/

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1 minute ago, panzermartin said:

 

Hmm good points and apparently Ukrainian pilots who have previously flown the frogfoot might be disappointed with the new bird https://www.google.com/amp/s/theaviationgeekclub.com/su-25-vs-a-10-heres-why-the-frogfoot-might-be-better-suited-than-the-warthog-for-cas/

I mean ANYTHING with NATO hard points and avionics would useful. But the return on investment is not there. 

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3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I mean ANYTHING with NATO hard points and avionics would useful. But the return on investment is not there. 

I try not to quote myself, but forgive me just this once. If all an aircraft can do is fire precision missiles from ten miles behind the forward edge of battle and then run for its life, a nice heavy duty truck is a LOT cheaper, and the driver even more so.

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8 hours ago, Grimtechnique said:

@chuckdyke seriously your behaviour is wild. Accusing others of holding putin sentiments for stating what is well regarded as historical orthodoxy in regards to the russian will to keep on fighting despite horrendous losses i think actually should garner some warning from the admins here.

You are poisoning the well imo and should probably take some time to chill out before posting again.

If you use language which is the same as putin you support the man. It is up to Battlefront to ban me and they are welcome to do so. Not up to you. Freedom of speech is more valuable to me than this membership. Ukraine contributed over four million soldiers and lost over 1 million of them during WW2. You said Russians will keep fighting despite horrendous losses. How many prisoners did Germany take and how many Russians served under Nazi Germany? Reinforcing urban myths about Russia doesn't serve anybody. But according to putin and some subscribers it is all Russia. Imo this war will only end if he is gone, dead and buried.

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18 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

I dont get how you go from A to B.

In wider context of possible rifts as to defining Russia  as long-term danger, I don't see at all Germany as weak partner even for USA. If they want to to put their own interest forward, they will. And this must not necessarly involve giving UA access to NATO in any short period of time. France stance seem to actually be similar. West Europeans still seem to be in transition period about viewing Russia; these things can take decades to form and being absorbed by populations and business/political elites alike.

Anyway, that's why countries of the Eastern Flank needs own sufficent military forces; there is almost biological understanding of physical danger on behalf of Muscovy now, regardless of who rule Kremlin. Let's hope there will no going back to "business as usual" after year or two after shooting stops.

Ok, last time from Vuhledar:

Some prisoners were taken as well; they look really rough:

 

Edited by Beleg85
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7 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Did someone say... Balllooonnnnn

BALLOON-WITH-TEXT.png.webp

Muahahhahahaha... 

Yes let's discuss it more. I'm surprised no-one made any balloon conspiracies yet.

They should have shot it down over Roswell and had a group of men dressed in dark suits and sunglasses come to pick it up at midnight.

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30 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

According to many experts, Grippen is ideal because it is made with a view to fighting in the conditions of Russian air superiority. It can use dispersed field airfields and stretches of highway instead of permanent air bases, with minimised logistic requirements

There are only a handful of countries who actually have Gripens. Of these, Brazil & Hungary won't deliver to Ukraine & the Czechs have theirs leased (from Sweden). That leaves only South Africa with 26 and Sweden with around 160 planes.

Technically, the Gripen might be the right plane, but that is asking for Sweden to be the sole supplier of western airplanes to Ukraine.

23 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Tornados?

Are you trying to hurt Ukraine? These things need so much maintenance nowadays and still hardly fly. Not a good idea.

14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Btw. what you think is current stance of internal disputes in Germany about possible access of Ukraine in NATO? Positive, negative, or too early too tell?

Not an issue, yet. Joining EU is the much more prominent news.

When this comes up, the peaceniks and russophiles will crawl out of their holes for a last stand, but not to much effect.

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9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I try not to quote myself, but forgive me just this once. If all an aircraft can do is fire precision missiles from ten miles behind the forward edge of battle and then run for its life, a nice heavy duty truck is a LOT cheaper, and the driver even more so.

I am kinda here on this one too.  There is a post war argument to build up the Ukrainian Air Force, and frankly the introduction of a new fleet of aircraft is on that sort of timeline anyway.  If you want boom-boom at 100s of kms by the end of next week just jump over the line and send in ATACMS.  I am not sure if manned fighter/bomber aircraft are going to survive this war as a concept to be honest (and people are wringing hands about tanks).  Unless someone can break the Air Denial paradigm and actually achieve air superiority, which fighter they have may be a moot point.

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8 minutes ago, poesel said:

There are only a handful of countries who actually have Gripens. Of these, Brazil & Hungary won't deliver to Ukraine & the Czechs have theirs leased (from Sweden). That leaves only South Africa with 26 and Sweden with around 160 planes.

Also Thailand with another 12, but I doubt if they're likely to want to part with anything out of such a small fleet.

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Bakhmut's defense left flank looks like it is a goner

Helios also refers obliquely to some chatter about friction between the Ukr levels of command (which seems to have gone on for a while). Maybe our Ukrainian speakers can write an explainer about what's behind these stories re: lack of unity of command?

 

 

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37 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Hmm good points and apparently Ukrainian pilots who have previously flown the frogfoot might be disappointed with the new bird https://www.google.com/amp/s/theaviationgeekclub.com/su-25-vs-a-10-heres-why-the-frogfoot-might-be-better-suited-than-the-warthog-for-cas/

This article was written by a guy from Russia. The praise of their military equipment among the Russians is a national sport. A-10 is a much more advanced aircraft than the Su-25. The choice of weapons, sensors, ballistic computers for the first are much more developed. Smart weapons are the weak point of the Su-25. Without a smart weapon, he is forced to approach the target so that the pilot can see the target, increasing his chances of being shot down (the Su-25 does not even have a primitive electronic-optical zoom system). What can I say, the A-10 has been constantly upgraded with new electronics, while the Su-25 has existed in its original form since 1980.

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21 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Also Thailand with another 12, but I doubt if they're likely to want to part with anything out of such a small fleet.

UK is definitely considering Typhoons, and seems to be ready to at least officially start the pilot training. This BBC article quotes various top officials who seem to be in agreement about that, having different opinions on delivery schedule and priority:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64578973

Regarding aircraft suited for the type of operations Ukraine does, if Eurofighter is being considered, I don't see how F-16 or F-15 could be unable to cope with the UA conditions, perhaps at a cost of more maintenance to the landing gear. But from all available US aircraft, surely Hornet would be the one best suited to operating from rough and short runways. It is also quite plentiful and integrated with all possible US weapon. IMO it would be the best possible platform for UA, even before Gripen if US could spare some more modern variants.

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50 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

If you use language which is the same as putin you support the man. It is up to Battlefront to ban me and they are welcome to do so. Not up to you. Freedom of speech is more valuable to me than this membership. Ukraine contributed over four million soldiers and lost over 1 million of them during WW2. You said Russians will keep fighting despite horrendous losses. How many prisoners did Germany take and how many Russians served under Nazi Germany? Reinforcing urban myths about Russia doesn't serve anybody. But according to putin and some subscribers it is all Russia. Imo this war will only end if he is gone, dead and buried.

It's a third party observation,  based on interpretation of historical facts. His conclusion was that Russian forces have historically shown some serious resilience in the face of pretty crazy situations. He's not wrong,  based on any cursory read of Barbarossa. Seriously, take a chill pill.  

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Artillery of 14th Brigade damaged Russian helo. Nice.

8 minutes ago, Huba said:

Regarding aircraft suited for the type of operations Ukraine does, if Eurofighter is being considered, I don't see how F-16 or F-15 could be unable to cope with the UA conditions, perhaps at a cost of more maintenance to the landing gear. But from all available US aircraft, surely Hornet would be the one best suited to operating from rough and short runways. It is also quite plentiful and integrated with all possible US weapon. IMO it would be the best possible platform for UA, even before Gripen if US could spare some more modern variants.

Some newspaper lately even suggested Super Tucanos...;)

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43 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

Bakhmut's defense left flank looks like it is a goner

Helios also refers obliquely to some chatter about friction between the Ukr levels of command (which seems to have gone on for a while). Maybe our Ukrainian speakers can write an explainer about what's behind these stories re: lack of unity of command?

 

 

Looking like time to run or commit.

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9 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

His conclusion was that Russian forces have historically shown some serious resilience

Historically they were not capable of doing it by themselves, that is a historical fact. The first serious setback the Germans had was the Battle of Moscow. Zhukov with (not Russian)  Siberian units' Russian units during the previous months surrendered in droves. Urban myth and social media is used by putin's cronies very sophisticated too to perpetuate myths. Russian desert now because they don't want to fight in Ukraine. It is not because they are in sympathy for the Ukraine. The fact they had to use criminals to do the heavy lifting and they can't find volunteers they have to use conscripts. These are facts not myths.

Edited by chuckdyke
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25 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Historically they were not capable of doing it by themselves, that is a historical fact. The first serious setback the Germans had was the Battle of Moscow. Zhukov with (not Russian)  Siberian units' Russian units during the previous months surrendered in droves. Urban myth and social media is used by putin's cronies very sophisticated too to perpetuate myths. Russian desert now because they don't want to fight in Ukraine. It is not because they are in sympathy for the Ukraine. The fact they had to use criminals to do the heavy lifting and they can't find volunteers they have to use conscripts. These are facts not myths.

So if I disagree with your above post,  pointing out the obvious mistakes with links,  I'll be a Putin shill? 

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