How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Chibot Mk IX]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Playing CM armchair general here, it seems like the Azov guys went in too boldly.  Perhaps not following the plan?  Not sure about that, but it did sound like they decided to drive in at top speed and take the positions by storm instead of making sure their flanks were secure. They had some idea of what was around them, but not enough.  And enough time went by that the Wagner forces were able to bring up reinforcements.

Yet another lesson that charging into an urban environment with a small force isn't a good idea.

Steve

Maybe it's friendly units faulty. Not be able to follow up or have a clear pic on current situation due to failed communication? 

 

from FM 71-1

Quote

MILITARY OPERATIONS IN BUILT-UP AREAS (MOBA)

Rapid Advance

This method may be used when a critical objective has been identified. (This critical objective may be any facility, structure, or terrain feature which provides a definite advantage, such as an airfield or public utility bridge.) A strong, rapid advance force drives toward the critical objective as quickly as possible, clearing only that part of the zone necessary to sustain the advance . As this force moves forward , the remainder of the attacking force clears the zone ( including the areas hastily cleared by the rapid advance) . Disruption of the enemy's system of defense by the rapid -advance force should make zone clearance easier. Ideally , the rapid – advance force moves through an area of known enemy weaknesses . Local air superiority and sup pression of enemy air defense weapons may permit helicopters to insert the rapid -advance force on or near the critical objective.

 

[Zeleban]

 

There was no need to worry so much about the escalation after the delivery of tanks to Ukraine. Western tanks are bad tanks. They will say the same about Western planes and missiles. Therefore, you can safely supply them to Ukraine without fear of Russian nuclear strikes

[Kinophile]

6 hours ago, Butschi said:

Maybe, maybe not. I'm a bit suspicious of this narrative. Sometimes a bad idea is just a bad idea and not a sign of a hidden master plan.

Indeed.  Where a relative of mine sees nefarious conspiracies,  I see simple selfish incompetence. 

The two are not mutually exclusive, of course, but one is an easier course than the other. Occam's razor and all that. 

[Battlefront.com]

43 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

There was no need to worry so much about the escalation after the delivery of tanks to Ukraine. Western tanks are bad tanks. They will say the same about Western planes and missiles. Therefore, you can safely supply them to Ukraine without fear of Russian nuclear strikes

That's some funny stuff!  Especially the part about all those Armata tanks that the West says are headed off to Ukraine.  That's a great way to lie on two different levels.  One, there are no Armata tanks to go into Ukraine in the first place.  Two, for sure nobody in the West is saying Russia is deploying them.  Russian media always cites Western media when they want to gain credibility for their lies because Russians quietly trust Western media more than their own.  Which is humorous because the source of this information is Russian media, which Russians claim can't be trusted.

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

57 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

There was no need to worry so much about the escalation after the delivery of tanks to Ukraine. Western tanks are bad tanks. They will say the same about Western planes and missiles. Therefore, you can safely supply them to Ukraine without fear of Russian nuclear strikes

Lets give Russian propagandists some credit here, at least they did not claim that they destroyed any Abrams tanks in Ukraine yet, like they claimed they destroyed 4 Bradley IFVs. Looks like they are on stage 2 of Russia's 3 stage response here.

Edited January 28, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[NamEndedAllen]

No confirmation at all ftom USA spokespersons, but regardless:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kyiv-improving-airfields-anticipating-modern-jets

“Unlike the recent influx of promises for western tanks, Ukraine has yet to receive any solid offers of modern fighter jets from allies like the U.S., France, the Netherlands, Denmark and others. But it’s preparing airfields across the country in anticipation of deliveries of multi-role jets like U.S.-made F-16 Fighting Falcons or French Mirage or Rafale fighters.

To integrate jets like those into the Ukrainian Air Force would not only require training for pilots and maintainers, but it would also require making sure more modern jets have safe places to operate from.’

AND FROM ISW, new summary:

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on January 26.
• A recent altercation between Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and former Russian officer Igor Girkin is exposing a new domain for competition among Russian nationalist groups for political influence in Russia against the backdrop of Russian military failures in Ukraine.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continued his campaign against critical and opposition voices by cracking down on several major opposition media outlets.
• The United States Treasury Department announced new sanctions targeting the Wagner Group’s global support network, likely in response to the Wagner Group’s renewed efforts to reinvigorate its operations outside of Ukraine.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces relaunched counteroffensive operations near Kreminna.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut, on the western outskirts of Donetsk City, and in the Vuhledar area.
• Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are not conducting offensive operations at the size or scale necessary for a full-scale offensive.
• Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces continued to conduct limited and localized ground attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast.
• The Wagner Group likely experienced significant losses in attritional offensive operations in eastern Ukraine over the past few months.
• Russian occupation officials are reportedly continuing to “nationalize” property and close places of worship belonging to the Ukrainian Evangelical Baptist Christian communities in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast in an effort to establish the Kremlin-affiliated Moscow Patriarchate Orthodox Church as the dominant faith in the region.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-26-2023

[Zeleban]

2 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Lets give Russian propagandists some credit here, at least they did not claim that they destroyed any Abrams tanks in Ukraine yet, like they claimed they destroyed 4 Bradley IFVs. Looks like we are in stage 2 of Russia's 3 stage response here.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2023/01/20/7385822/

You underestimated Russian propagandists. A fake has already been launched that an Abrams tank from an RPG-18 was destroyed near Soledar

[Harmon Rabb]

Just now, Zeleban said:

https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2023/01/20/7385822/

You underestimated Russian propagandists. A fake has already been launched that an Abrams tank from an RPG-18 was destroyed near Soledar

I stand corrected.

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, JonS said:

Which is a point The Capt and I have been hammering repeatedly. Giving the Ukrainians shiny uber kit but not allowing them the time to fully train on it - on an individual, platoon, sub unit, unit, and combined arms team, in that order - is a waste of time, personnel and all that shiny uber kit.

Yup, and I've been harping on this since the early days of the war as well.  My handy dandy flow chart I made last April when people were complaining about sending Soviet stuff instead of shiny new Abrams. 

At the time speed was critical, but the underlying reasoning is the same today.  Which is, send the fancy stuff only when it's practical to put it to good use.  Seems we are are finally getting to that stage with MBTs, which is a good sign.  But we're probably talking 2024 before we see them doing much of anything.  If Russia makes it that long, that is.  I'm still hoping something will change the equation, but I don't think we'll know until this Summer if there's a chance of that happening.

8 hours ago, JonS said:

Honestly, soldiers really aren't trainspotters. If it's a box with tracks and a ramp at the back ... that's a '113.

This is the flipside of that old "every gun is an '88, and every tank is a Tiger" thing.

Oh for sure.  Plus, much easier to say M113 than YPR-765

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Lets give Russian propagandists some credit here, at least they did not claim that they destroyed any Abrams tanks in Ukraine yet, like they claimed they destroyed 4 Bradley IFVs. Looks like they are on stage 2 of Russia's 3 stage response here.

I'll also give them a wee bit of credit (but not for what you said, as Zeleban has made clear why!), which is that Abrams are vulnerable to certain threats.  Anybody that has played with Abrams in CMSF or CMBS can tell you exactly what those threats are   There are many, that is for sure.  However, the same player can also specify all the failings of various Russian tanks.  Well, except for Armata because it doesn't exist

If the Russian propaganda had just stuck to the obvious fact that Abrams can be destroyed, then it wouldn't have been laughable.  But that's not the Russian way, so they went on to talk about how the T-90 is superior to the Abrams, but didn't mention Ukrainians haven't had trouble knocking them out without Abrams on their side.  44 and counting according to Oryx.

Steve

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Yes, when a Russian fakes surrender to blow himself up with a grenade, then it's a war crime, but when a Ukrainian does it, he's a hero...

If you surrender to the Ukrainians you are unlikely to be tortured to death slowly. Wagner....

[dan/california]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

That was an excellent video.  A very good example of how an apparent quick success can quickly turn into a prolonged disaster.  Here's what I got out of this video...

It is difficult to know exactly what went wrong, but I got the impression that two platoons went in fast and hard with APCs (interesting they call them M113s, yet they were YPR-765).  The flanking forces weren't able to make progress, which meant the assault platoons were on their own.  After causing significant casualties and confusion amongst the enemy, Wagner defenders began to act instead of just react.  They also had superior numbers and used them fairly effectively.

Azov was ordered to pull out.  The two platoons weren't in close contact and so weren't able to directly support each other.  One managed to retreat fairly easily, the second one continually found themselves cut off and under attack from multiple angles.  The first platoon tried to establish contact with the cut off platoon, but they went to the wrong location due to bad communications.  They found they got themselves into a bad situation and narrowly missed getting their "M113" RPG'd.  They retreated back the way they came.

The cut off platoon spent significant time fighting in place, trying to move, etc.  They finally got a tank to provide some supporting fire, but still not enough to get them out safely.  The platoon (which really seems to have been about 2 small squads to start with) moves out in 2s and 3s.  They managed to make it out with most of their men, but one heavily wounded stayed behind and blew himself up with a grenade (presumably in the face of Wagner soldiers).

Back with their own guys they were to be relieved by a neighboring unit which sent in a MT-LB to pick them up, but it got blown up by an ATGM on the way out.  All of the Azov guys were fine because they were riding on top, but the MT-LB crew was killed.

 

Playing CM armchair general here, it seems like the Azov guys went in too boldly.  Perhaps not following the plan?  Not sure about that, but it did sound like they decided to drive in at top speed and take the positions by storm instead of making sure their flanks were secure. They had some idea of what was around them, but not enough.  And enough time went by that the Wagner forces were able to bring up reinforcements.

Yet another lesson that charging into an urban environment with a small force isn't a good idea.

Steve

We spent a fair amount of time a month or three ago discussing a video where a Ukrainian unit charged straight up a road at a Russian unit in a single APC. The move should have been suicidal, but it worked because of some combination of truly awful Russian troop quality, and possibly crap supplies. Everyone was sort of amazed that it worked. I have a sneaking suspicion that both sides in this war do a fair amount of attacks like that. Just assume the other side is incompetent or shelled into complete in incoherence. Sometimes, maybe even usually in the Russian case, they are wrong. 

Hopefully the units being trained up on NATO kit all over Europe will finally achieve the coordination to do things more coherently.

Edited January 28, 2023 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

Ukraine continues to innovate its approach to warfare.  This time by pressing the ICC to declare certain Russian cyber attacks as War Crimes:

Quote

 “When we observe the situation in cyberspace we notice some coordination between kinetic strikes and cyberattacks, and since the majority of kinetic attacks are organized against civilians — being a direct act of war crime — supportive actions in cyber can be considered as war crimes,” Zhora told Politico.

https://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/3833793-ukraine-enters-uncharted-territory-with-request-to-investigate-russian-cyberattacks-as-war-crimes/

I'm in favor of it.  I also think far clearer rules should be laid out for discouraging and punishing cyber attacks generally. For example, when a non-state actor has conducted a cyber attack there should be a choice for the nation hosting the attacker; hand them over or accept legal responsibility for the actor's actions.

Steve

[Beleg85]

About recent rant between Girkin and Prigozhin. Interesting, as it shows rifts within apparatus and nationalists inside Russia:

 

[dan/california]

31 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

About recent rant between Girkin and Prigozhin. Interesting, as it shows rifts within apparatus and nationalists inside Russia:

 

An excellent thread. Hopefully both of these truly unpleasant people will be casualties  of the eventual Russian power struggle. We should try rather hard to ensure neither one of them is the next Czar, they both Think Stalin's endless slaughter was merely a good start.

[dan/california]

Things appear to have gotten even livelier. May you live in interesting times really is a curse.

[pintere]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Things appear to have gotten even livelier. May you live in interesting times really is a curse.

Good to see Israel doing it‘s part as well! 

Found a pretty recent article talking about how Israel factors into this war. Apparently they might be pretty similar to Bulgaria in that they’re doing more for Ukraine than most folks realize.

https://www.ukrinform.net/amp/rubric-polytics/3661175-israel-supports-ukraine-more-than-is-known-ambassador.html

[kevinkin]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

when a non-state actor has conducted a cyber attack there should be a choice for the nation hosting the attacker

Thinking out loud .. should some cyber attacks be considered using WMD given they can potentially bring down networks critical to a nation's economy e.g. banking, electrical, communications. Non-state actors have to keep a lot of people up at night. I hope so. What should be the response if Iran hosts a bunch of code cutters that bring down Atlanta and the surrounding area? I know it's a long shot, but still. 

[NamEndedAllen]

28 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Thinking out loud .. should some cyber attacks be considered using WMD given they can potentially bring down networks critical to a nation's economy e.g. banking, electrical, communications. Non-state actors have to keep a lot of people up at night. I hope so. What should be the response if Iran hosts a bunch of code cutters that bring down Atlanta and the surrounding area? I know it's a long shot, but still. 

Not quite. Instead, such things can be considered by the USA’s Pentagon to be an Act of War. I can’t find a more recent an official statement. It certainly is possible that the USA government has communicated more definitively to the likely suspects:
In its first formal cyber strategy, the Pentagon has concluded that computer sabotage by another country could constitute an act of war, administration and military sources told NBC News on Tuesday, confirming a report in the Wall Street Journal…The officials emphasize, however, that not every attack would lead to retaliation. Such a cyber attack would have to be so serious it would threaten American lives, commerce, infrastructure or worse, and there would have to be indisputable evidence leading to the nation state involved, NBC Pentagon correspondent Jim Miklaszewski said…Unclassified parts of the 30-page strategy are expected to become public in June, the Wall Street Journal reported, attributing the disclosure to three defense sources who had read the report.

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

Things appear to have gotten even livelier. May you live in interesting times really is a curse.

This doesn’t sound verified as Israel. And Crowds shouting “Death to Khamenei”? On the surface, Israel being the attacker seems unlikely since that would clearly be an act of war. Possible domestic sabotage? Another nation with a special interest in Iran’s aid to Russia??

Recent report 
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/iran-reports-drone-attack-defense-facility-96744493

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates -- Drones attacked an Iranian defense factory in the central city of Isfahan overnight, the state-run IRNA news agency reported early Sunday.

It carried a Defense Ministry statement saying the attack occurred late Saturday and caused minor damage to a rooftop. The report said three drones were shot down by Iranian air defenses.

The ministry did not say who was suspected of carrying out the attack.

Separately, Iran’s state TV said a fire broke out at an oil refinery in an industrial zone near the northwestern city of Tabriz. It said the cause was not yet known, as it showed footage of firefighters trying to extinguish the blaze.

Edited January 29, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[Battlefront.com]

A couple of weeks ago I theorized that there is only so much help Iran is able to make to Russia before it's interests are harmed.  Unlike the West, Iran is more likely to wind up fighting some sort of war, be it internal or external.  Now that there's a new and extremely hardline, aggressive Israeli government in power there's even more reasons for Iran to scale back support for Russia.

If this attack was domestic or foreign, it doesn't matter as the possible (probable?) result on supplying Russia with everything it asks for is probably over.

Steve

[NamEndedAllen]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

f this attack was domestic or foreign, it doesn't matter as the possible (probable?) result on supplying Russia with everything it asks for is probably over.

That would be fantastic. Although IF Israel decided now is the time to start a war with Iran, we have an entirely new crisis since the USA is committed to Israel’s defense. A better scenario is an internal attack, suggesting that Iraqis on the brink of a civil war. Kurds might also be the saboteurs. I guess we just have to wait and see. Personally, I don’t think it would be a positive development to have war breakout in the Middle East. Iran would certainly disrupt oil shipments, and the USA, Japan, and Europe would all be economically affected. Politically as well. So let’s hope this stays within Iran - and that it’s drone production and/or exports are curtailed!

[dan/california]

maybe Israel decided to supply the Iranian opposition with some new toys? May Israel stole some of Iran's OWN toys, and supplied them to the opposition? Maybe they just.... helped the opposition steal them? Also possible the opposition found a weak link in the drone shipments and stole them themselves? No evidence to speak of yet, but it will be a real test to see who the Iranians blame it on, regardless of what actually happened.

 

[MikeyD]

If history is anything to go by, Its likely Israel randomly lashing out at Sunni Iran because their co-religionists in the occupied territories are currently acting up. That's become a common pattern.

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

If history is anything to go by, Its likely Israel randomly lashing out at Sunni Iran because their co-religionists in the occupied territories are currently acting up. That's become a common pattern.

I think Iran is Shiite.