How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Zeleban]

4 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I think I saw a video of someone trying to remake the sinking in either that or DCS and failing horribly because it was modeled after its paper statistics, not the bulk head rusted through kind of characteristics you see in the actual Russian navy

I think it was the Grim Reapers.

[Kraft]

10 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

I think it was the Grim Reapers.

Just rewatched that I have to apologize to DCS, the 3rd simulation run with bad weather actually worked, wow. Maybe the Russian military should do some editor testing before sending its flag ship out alone

Edited January 27, 2023 by Kraft

[Seminole]

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

We are at war once NATO troops start killing Orcs or Article 5 get declared. Not earlier, not later. Doesn´t matter what the Kremlin numbnuts think or say. Until then we help the Ukraine to cleanse their soil from this vermin. Whatever it takes.

If you hand over a loaded gun and the recipient shoots someone, you can find yourself considered to be an accessory.

In fairness, it does matter whether the 'Kremlin numbnuts' think it is war, because it affects their response.

A legal/political determination in the West that we're not really at war won't stop incoming rounds.

After all, if we didn't think what they thought mattered, why does the West show any restraint?

“It started with the Germans saying they were willing to send helmets, because they wouldn’t send lethal tools into the war since that would mean participation in it. This is where we started,” Orban said. “Now, we’re at battle tanks, and they’re already talking about planes.”

 

Orban said Friday that Hungary getting drawn into the war in Ukraine “is out of the question as long as I am prime minister” but he thinks it is too late for other countries in Europe.

“The others are not only in danger, they have already been swept away,” he said. “If you send weapons, if you finance the entire annual budget of one of the belligerents, if you promise more and more weapons, more and more modern weapons, then you can say whatever you want. No matter what you say, you are in the war.”

Edited January 27, 2023 by Seminole

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, JonS said:

Edit: also, weren't we all gung-ho in favour of precision, just yesterday? What happened to that?

Still are, it is what is making this thing work for the UA.  But unfortunately precision is still expensive and industry only made so much.  So all western militaries are still lobbing dumb HE all over the place, and have lots of it.  DPICM is basically distributed dumb HE that does much better coverage of any given area for fewer rounds fired...or at least that is the theory.

I am still on the fence on military utility of DPICM in this war to be honest.  It is legal and really will not make things relatively worse RoW wise, but as to how effective it is compared to other weapon systems versus the heartburn/hue and cry may not be entirely worth it.  From a strictly military point of view I think they may have some advantages, but the political calculus is more complicated. 

That said if offered a pallet load of DPICM or Excalibur, I know which way I would go. 

Edited January 28, 2023 by The_Capt

[TheVulture]

Some news from the last day or two re Russian trade courtesy of Geopolitical Futures

Quote

Russian energy. Russia more than doubled its sales of liquefied petroleum gas to the Baltic states in 2022, according to Reuters. Deliveries to Latvia increased by 77 percent, to Lithuania by 750 percent, and to Estonia by 42 percent. Some of the supplies were resold to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian Railways said coal deliveries from ports on Russia’s Baltic Sea coast increased by 33 percent in January compared to a year ago, despite an EU ban on Russian coal imports.

Japanese sanctions. Japan said it will impose tougher sanctions on Russia, banning the export of products that could help Moscow’s war effort. From Feb. 3, Japan will not sell vaccines, medical equipment, robots, radioactive materials, equipment for nuclear facilities, or oil and gas exploration equipment to Russia. Sanctions will also be imposed on three Russian entities and 22 individuals.

Moscow's new customer. Pakistan will start importing oil from Russia in April, according to the Pakistani oil minister, who said a deal on crude purchases should be reached in March. He added that the imports will not be paid for in dollars. Moscow is looking for new customers for its oil exports after Western countries imposed a price ceiling.

 

Edited January 27, 2023 by TheVulture

[DesertFox]

33 minutes ago, Seminole said:

In fairness, it does matter whether the 'Kremlin numbnuts' think it is war, because it affects their response.

A legal/political determination in the West that we're not really at war won't stop incoming rounds.

After all, if we didn't think what they thought mattered, why does the West show any restraint?

I havent seen them attacking anyone else except ukrainian children, old women and helpless civilians. Oh and I forgot them torturing and raping, and looting washing machines. Silly me. If the second army grows a spine and would decide to go against NATO, then we are at war. Not sooner not later. It is a really easy concept, isn´t it?

Edited January 27, 2023 by DesertFox

[Artkin]

1 hour ago, Grossman said:

 Zhukov at Stalingrad and Kursk.

Mmm Stalingrad was like smashing your head against a brick wall until the house came down. Uranus was successful but the Kotluban offensives are similar to what's going on today.

Edited January 27, 2023 by Artkin

[Kinophile]

Ref corruption in Ukraine. Is this thread reasonably accurate, for our Ukrainian friends? 

Im very curious about its effects on the War effort.  We're already fairly informed on Russian corruption and its effects on the AFRF,  as much as open source lets us, but what of its toll on Ukraines fight? 

I've read reports of the West's pleasant surprise at just how controlled and inspectable the weapons tracking system is, and also we've heard of SBU Russian infiltration, corruption and treason. 

I'm curious from a day to day civilian experience and also effects on both the operational logistics and battlefield impact (eg officer quality). 

If uncontrolled there are serious long term implications to both final victory and winning the Peace... 

Edited January 27, 2023 by Kinophile

[Lethaface]

59 minutes ago, Seminole said:

If you hand over a loaded gun and the recipient shoots someone, you can find yourself considered to be an accessory.

In fairness, it does matter whether the 'Kremlin numbnuts' think it is war, because it affects their response.

A legal/political determination in the West that we're not really at war won't stop incoming rounds.

After all, if we didn't think what they thought mattered, why does the West show any restraint?

“It started with the Germans saying they were willing to send helmets, because they wouldn’t send lethal tools into the war since that would mean participation in it. This is where we started,” Orban said. “Now, we’re at battle tanks, and they’re already talking about planes.”

 

Orban said Friday that Hungary getting drawn into the war in Ukraine “is out of the question as long as I am prime minister” but he thinks it is too late for other countries in Europe.

“The others are not only in danger, they have already been swept away,” he said. “If you send weapons, if you finance the entire annual budget of one of the belligerents, if you promise more and more weapons, more and more modern weapons, then you can say whatever you want. No matter what you say, you are in the war.”

Orban? lol

[_Morpheus_]

Great video with good comments , analyses from `3rd separate assault brigade` about one operation in Bakhmut.

 

[Zeleban]

 

Available (with English subtitles) a film about the battles of the 3rd assault brigade "Azov" in the village of Kurdyumovka in December 2022 (2 parts)

[DesertFox]

They are looking distinctively german. That´s for sure. Lets wait and see if that is really in Poland and a legit vid.

 

 

[Kinophile]

43 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Ref corruption in Ukraine. Is this thread reasonably accurate, for our Ukrainian friends? 

Im very curious about its effects on the War effort.  We're already fairly informed on Russian corruption and its effects on the AFRF,  as much as open source lets us, but what of its toll on Ukraines fight? 

I've read reports of the West's pleasant surprise at just how controlled and inspectable the weapons tracking system is, and also we've heard of SBU Russian infiltration, corruption and treason. 

I'm curious from a day to day civilian experience and also effects on both the operational logistics and battlefield impact (eg officer quality). 

If uncontrolled there are serious long term implications to both final victory and winning the Peace... 

Huh,  NYT thinking about the same thing 

[Beleg85]

Interesting talk about new UAV's (in UA, autotranslation work good):

https://mil.in.ua/uk/articles/80-urazhenyh-tsilej-interv-yu-z-operatorom-fpv-droniv/

 

Also, within context of discussion about DPCIM, worth to remember that Russians widely use TOS to shell entire urban quarters, often with civilians inside (for some reason, thermobarics are considered "gentlemanly", while cluster munitions not). Here from Vuhledar, where heavy fights are taking place:

 

[Kinophile]

@The_Capt

https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-ukraine-to-form-first-in-the-world-attack-drone-units

[Lethaface]

46 minutes ago, _Morpheus_ said:

Great video with good comments , analyses from `3rd separate assault brigade` about one operation in Bakhmut.

 

Thanks. I don't get emotional about how much tanks get send, but Surikat may he rest in peace.

[Beleg85]

Also, today North Korea (by mouths of Kim sister, Kim Yo-jong) seem to take more direct stance behind Russia. Muscovite media are extremely hungry of anyone standing with Kremlin in this conflict and even small voices of support are hyped. Hard to assess for now how valid it is in case of NK; perhaps it is only about this ammo deal, but some TG channels would like to see North Korean division in Bakhmut.

https://tass.com/world/1568199

Edited January 27, 2023 by Beleg85

[Zeleban]

19 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Huh,  NYT thinking about the same thing 

Corruption has always been a big problem in Ukraine. It has deeply penetrated into all structures and state institutions, including military procurement. This greatly harmed the defense capability of our state. I am sure that before the start of the war, our military-political leadership could do much more than was done in reality. But apparently the real threat of destruction, as well as the close attention of the world community riveted to our armed forces, favorably influenced a sharp decrease in corruption, at least in the army.

 

Yes, this article quite accurately reflects the causes of high corruption in Ukraine. It lies in the mentality of Ukrainians, their selfishness, their desire to "outsmart fate." But the problem of corruption was characteristic of all countries of the communist bloc. I think this is due to the low standard of living in these countries, the lack of goods and the desire to achieve these benefits of civilization at any cost.

In the understanding of my parents, the most important thing is meeting the right people. In their youth, any significant things could be achieved only by contacting people they knew in this area and giving them a present - not necessarily money, it could be a box of chocolates or imported alcohol rare in the USSR. So it was possible to achieve better service in the hospital, the purchase of high-quality Romanian or Hungarian-made furniture (Soviet furniture was of terrible quality), rare imported clothes, even car maintenance (in the Soviet Union there were no car repair services, and if you didn’t know how to fix your car yourself, you could negotiate with a mechanic from the nearest car park for a bottle of vodka).

Thus, life without corruption in the USSR was much harder than with it. Society, as it were, inclined you towards corruption. Then you become a director of an enterprise or a deputy or a minister, and voila, a new corrupt official is ready

 

[DesertFox]

Good news, if that citation of the ukrainian ambassador in France is correct, but logistic hell.

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Fernando said:

The judicial order also highlights that, although the investigation has not revealed so far that the detainee "belongs to or collaborates with any terrorist gang or organized group",

It seems this guy might have been a "sympathetic actor" and "lone wolf" rather than a direct agent or part of a domestic terrorist organization.  Obviously every angle needs to be investigated, but on the surface it looks like a typical crazy guy who found a cause and acted on his own.  There's lots of people like this to worry about.

Steve

[NamEndedAllen]

If not already mentioned, jets topic moves up a rung:

“With the transfer of modern Western-made tanks now secured, Ukraine is turning its sights once again to advanced fighter jets, with France today stating that it had not ruled out providing Kyiv with combat aircraft from its own stocks. A French government official confirmed that unnamed Eastern European countries and Denmark were also possible candidates to provide fighter jets to Ukraine, while a Ukrainian Air Force spokesman says that a transfer of advanced Rafale multirole fighter jets is on the table.

Speaking today, Thomas Gassilloud, chairman of the National Assembly’s National Defense and Armed Forces Committee, said that the French government could agree to supply Ukraine with the fighter jets that it so badly wants.”

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/france-is-considering-transferring-fighter-aircraft-to-ukraine

[DesertFox]

6 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

If not already mentioned, jets topic moves up a rung:

“With the transfer of modern Western-made tanks now secured, Ukraine is turning its sights once again to advanced fighter jets, with France today stating that it had not ruled out providing Kyiv with combat aircraft from its own stocks. A French government official confirmed that unnamed Eastern European countries and Denmark were also possible candidates to provide fighter jets to Ukraine, while a Ukrainian Air Force spokesman says that a transfer of advanced Rafale multirole fighter jets is on the table.

Speaking today, Thomas Gassilloud, chairman of the National Assembly’s National Defense and Armed Forces Committee, said that the French government could agree to supply Ukraine with the fighter jets that it so badly wants.”

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/france-is-considering-transferring-fighter-aircraft-to-ukraine

Lets hope so. The more the merrier.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Kraft said:

Just rewatched that I have to apologize to DCS, the 3rd simulation run with bad weather actually worked, wow. Maybe the Russian military should do some editor testing before sending its flag ship out alone

One thing that Command does (for sure Professional does, not familiar with commercial) is allow the scenario author to manipulate a wide range of factors to simulate differences between technical specs and real world performances.  Combat Mission does this as well, with our Professional version having some additional flexibility.

The point of this is to NOT have the sim maker's bias permanently baked into the simulation environment.  If the specs say X, Y, and Z then they should be simulated that way by default.  If someone thinks X doesn't apply and Y should be reduced by 20%, then it should be allowed.  At least for Pro customers.  There's a different argument to be made for commercial uses.

What is VERY interesting about something like Command is they can take a real world event with known data, run it without modifications, see what happens, tweak things if the results don't match, then run it again, etc. until the simulation produces the correct result.  The analysts can then determine what the real world state of things was and apply that to other situations that haven't yet happened.

For example, perhaps they found that crew quality was 60% of what it was presumed to be and X radar system was 35% less effective than presumed.  That's valuable insight.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Thus, life without corruption in the USSR was much harder than with it. Society, as it were, inclined you towards corruption. Then you become a director of an enterprise or a deputy or a minister, and voila, a new corrupt official is ready

The roots of corruption were inherent parts of the Soviet system because planned economies do not work very well and government based on fear instead of justice obligate people to operate outside of the law.  Put another way, people got shafted by bad economic theories failing to work and there was nothing legally they could do about it, yet people still need to eat and have certain material needs met in order to survive.  Black markets, corruption, and all that bad stuff is the easier response, revolution is the harder one.

I remember reading about some of the attempts to clean up the health care system in Ukraine after Yanukovych was thrown out of office.  Patients had to pay bribes to get medical care they theoretically were legally entitled to, but government was so corrupt that the hospitals didn't have the funds they needed to for providing those services.  I remember reading about one hospital where they took bribes and used that money to get medical supplies and pay staff.  Basically, an unofficial way to do their jobs because the official way didn't work. 

Basically, the Soviet system was so horrible that a barter system was needed to work around the inherent failures of the system itself.  Add Human greed, indifference, and even cruelty into the equation and it gets progressively worse and less effective over time.  That is one of the reasons the Soviet system collapsed... too many people were stealing from each in order to get ahead of others.  As we say in English, "a race to the bottom".

Steve

[kevinkin]

46 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

There's a different argument to be made for commercial uses.

The developers took a short but hard hit after the sinking of the Moskva. But a tongue in cheek explanation got to the heart of the matter:

"Command, by default (ie. stock DB values) represents Russian systems (and all other systems) as they are meant to be used, by trained crews employing them according to their design doctrine. Not long ago a US general remarked that "Russian hardware works pretty well..... when used by Ukrainians"."

I wonder if there weren't unknown soft factors, would there be any wars fought? It would all come down to math and physics and the ability to innovate and then outproduce your enemy. If DeepMind were allowed to tackle a wargame, which one? I would start relatively simple but with FOW.