How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

On 1/20/2023 at 5:35 AM, JonS said:

That's useful for raiding and harassment, but not super useful overall. Besides, the range of the AMX weapon systems are ... what? Maybe 1km if you're lucky with the terrain? That leaves it very exposed for a long time as it wombles forward through an area awash with active and passive sensors looking for exactly that kind of movement.

You'd be better off with a good old fashioned artillery raid: id a worthwhile target, roll a couple of good SP guns to within about 40km, release a few pgm krakens, and scoot back to safety. You still won't have done much more than annoy the enemy, but you'll have done it more effectively (12x 155mm PGM vs 2-3 direct fire 105mm), and from a far safer distance (40km vs 1km)

Edit: for really HVTs you could set up a raid package, akin to USAF strike packages once the target is id'd: SEAD and then EW a/c to open an ISR window, a light infantry company (air mobile? wheeled?) to clear routes to dispersed firing positions, bring up the guns, go nuts for 5 or 10 minutes, then run away leaving behind a smoking crater where there used to be a brigade HQ or dump of bridging equipment.

An offensive would follow broadly the same pattern, but on a larger scale, including feints and diversions, and with the intent of staying in position - there probably wouldn't be any direct fire ground engagements. Ie, the new-ish US multi-domain-operations doctrine, but in a continental context, rather than island hopping towards Taiwan.

This and the related discussions are pure gold, many thanks.

As to the antipersonnel mine discussion just now.....

.... hydroplanes 45 degrees. Resume silent running.

Edited January 24, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[akd]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

Since Ukraine is party to the land mine convention

Pretty sure this went out the window when Russia invaded full-scale.  Ukraine has deployed PFM-1s also.  Their whole point is to mangle a foot and produce a non-mobile casualty.

[FancyCat]

Government officials are being ousted due to corruption investigations.

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

Oh, FFS.

 

[FancyCat]

Just now, Der Zeitgeist said:

Oh, FFS.

 

I mean...how many tanks has Poland prepped and given to Ukraine? Besides, money was earmarked to pay for equipment by the EU already.

[Bulletpoint]

18 minutes ago, akd said:

Pretty sure this went out the window when Russia invaded full-scale.  Ukraine has deployed PFM-1s also.  Their whole point is to mangle a foot and produce a non-mobile casualty.

It's certainly possible, but there is still no evidence that Ukraine has used AP mines.

They do have more than three million PFM-1 stockpiled, so they have ample opportunity to use them.

[Der Zeitgeist]

9 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I mean...how many tanks has Poland prepped and given to Ukraine? Besides, money was earmarked to pay for equipment by the EU already.

I'm not sure how this works, would this need another (possibly unanimous) decision by the EU?

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Huba]

12 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

I'm not sure how this works, would this need another (possibly unanimous) decision by the EU?

No no. There's this EU mechanism for financing support for UA from which countries can be reimbursed for some of the various costs they took. AFAIK PL has already filled receipts for around 2.2B Euro, though actually got back about 50M. The voices that "we are sending too much, what about our own defense" are heard a bit louder lately, I'm guess this is directed at silencing them.

[Butschi]

13 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I mean...how many tanks has Poland prepped and given to Ukraine? Besides, money was earmarked to pay for equipment by the EU already.

Let's put it like this: Poland took the moral high ground with a lot of virtue signaling. Then saying "but we want those tanks payed for by EU" hurts their credibility.

Or, as effectively 3 of the 14 tanks would be paid by Germany, this sounds pretty much like "I will build a wall and Mexico pays (20% of) it".

[Der Zeitgeist]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

No no. There's this EU mechanism for financing support for UA from which countries can be reimbursed for some of the various costs they took. AFAIK PL has already filled receipts for around 2.2B Euro, though actually got back about 50M. The voices that "we are sending too much, what about our own defense" are heard a bit louder lately, I'm guess this is directed at silencing them.

Alright, fair enough, thanks!

[Butschi]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

No no. There's this EU mechanism for financing support for UA from which countries can be reimbursed for some of the various costs they took. AFAIK PL has already filled receipts for around 2.2B Euro, though actually got back about 50M. The voices that "we are sending too much, what about our own defense" are heard a bit louder lately, I'm guess this is directed at silencing them.

I think the timing is just a bit stupid right now. At least from the German perspective (see my other comment). If your government had waited a bit and then quietly asked to get the money back it would have looked better, I think.

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I think the timing is just a bit stupid right now. At least from the German perspective (see my other comment). If your government had waited a bit and then quietly asked to get the money back it would have looked better, I think.

Can't argue with that, sounds insanely stupid. Or directed at a very narrow part of his electorate, damn the rest AND international stance. IDK, I'd have to see the context of that, I can't fathom why would he mention that.

[Beleg85]

57 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I think the timing is just a bit stupid right now. At least from the German perspective (see my other comment). If your government had waited a bit and then quietly asked to get the money back it would have looked better, I think.

Yes, Morawiecki is criticized for it here as well. Do not make it harder for pro-tank public in Germany (not that it would have any visible influence over Scholz anyway, but I agree it is very unfortunate). Worth to note this was ad-hoc response from interview by one of newspapers, not singled out intent on a specific conference. So we will need to see if they will indeed pursue it as policy.

47 minutes ago, Huba said:

Can't argue with that, sounds insanely stupid. Or directed at a very narrow part of his electorate, damn the rest AND international stance. IDK, I'd have to see the context of that, I can't fathom why would he mention that.

I think typically NEXTA took it out of context. Probably every other country will fill the receipt for this  military fund for their part, and PM just mean they will fill theirs as well. Nothing extraordinary that allies didn't agreed upon before. However he could be more cautious with timing and wording.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Beleg85

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Too lazy to dig up the original source, but reportedly according to UA Air Force spokesman Yuri Ignat, there's already a decision to supply UA with western aircraft and arrangements regarding training are being made:

Edit: Kherson Cat found the source:

 

Most likely, we are talking about the transfer of aircraft to Ukraine after the end of the war. The pilots will be trained now, but the planes will be sent after the war. If there are such problems with the supply of tanks, the transfer of aircraft is completely excluded right now

[Huba]

13 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

Most likely, we are talking about the transfer of aircraft to Ukraine after the end of the war. The pilots will be trained now, but the planes will be sent after the war. If there are such problems with the supply of tanks, the transfer of aircraft is completely excluded right now

Let's hope you are wrong  NL said they will consider sending F-16s if the request is made, and according to Reznikov the next Ramstein is to be about aircraft. Rumors of training going on appear here and there since summer, IIRC US even prepared a hefty sum for that some time ago. If NATO is serious about enabling UA victory, they planes have to happen in my opinion.

In other news, according to Sky News Arabia, US is prepared to send a token (for now) number of Abrams to put more pressure on Germany:

Oh, and here's a better source:

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by Huba

[Beleg85]

20 minutes ago, Huba said:

Oh, and here's a better source:

Could be controlled leak on Washington side to keep pressure on Scholtz.

From Russian channels, they already share best tips how to defeat Leos2.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Beleg85

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Could be controlled leak on Washington side to keep pressure on Scholtz.

Or just breaking the news to the public, as it is with almost all new weapons that are pledged. IMO politically this is the best way to move forward, a truly unified effort. Logisticians are properdly screwed of course.

[Beleg85]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

Or just breaking the news to the public, as it is with almost all new weapons that are pledged. IMO politically this is the best way to move forward, a truly unified effort. Logisticians are properdly screwed of course.

Yes, when dust over political part will settle public will probably only start to discover what it actually means to keep all these vehicles in line. It may may be cold shower on some heads, who expect silver bullets of sorts.

[billbindc]

It's clear that the US thinks Leopards are the better tank to send to Ukraine but M1's are coming if they aren't available. Very notably, there is nary a complaint coming from the new House GOP leadership. Two strong signals that Putin should, but probably won't, be noting.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/poland-formally-requests-german-permission-to-send-tanks-to-ukraine-11674558492?mod=hp_lead_pos1

[Harmon Rabb]

22 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

From Russian channels, they already share best tips how to defeat Leos2.

Are the World of Tanks and War Thunder players, showing off their expertise on armored warfare again?

Edited January 24, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Huba]

It really is great news in my opinion. Leo2 might be better suited and perhaps a bit easier to sustain, but it's fleet is extremely fragmented, it will be really hard to find a 100 vehicles fitted with the same electronics, radio etc, it should be way easier with M1. Taping into the huge pool of available M1 now is also quite important, cause going forward this is the most significant reserve the West has, by far. 

It's quite unclear what "significant number" of M1 means, but with the 100 Leopards reportedly pledged (and that's without DE participation), we could be easily looking at equivalent of a NATO division worth of equipment, or even more. That really might have an impact on the state of things. 

I'd really be worried if I was in RU shoes now.

Also, can't tell how intentional it was, but kudos to Scholz for making it happen

Edited January 24, 2023 by Huba

[DesertFox]

Interesting:

U.S. Leans Toward Providing Abrams Tanks to Ukraine - WSJ

and

 

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by DesertFox

[Butschi]

2 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Are the World of Tank and War Thunder players, showing off their expertise on Armored Warfare again?

You mean to say Russia won't win when they hold point A longer than Ukraine? And when your tank is destroyed you don't respawn in a new one?

[danfrodo]

17 minutes ago, Huba said:

It really is great news in my opinion. Leo2 might be better suited and perhaps a bit easier to sustain, but it's fleet is extremely fragmented, it will be really hard to find a 100 vehicles fitted with the same electronics, radio etc, it should be way easier with M1. Taping into the huge pool of available M1 now is also quite important, cause going forward this is the most significant reserve the West has, by far. 

It's quite unclear what "significant number" of M1 means, but with the 100 Leopards reportedly pledged (and that's without DE participation), we could be easily looking at equivalent of a NATO division worth of equipment, or even more. That really might have an impact on the state of things. 

I'd really be worried if I was in RU shoes now.

Also, can't tell how intentional it was, but kudos to Scholz for making it happen

This all gets back to having some kind of cohesive approach to getting UKR the tools it needs to push RU off its land and 'end' this mess w/o RU profiting.   Whether its abrams or leo2s, all the parties should be discussing what makes the most sense and then throwing everything into that effort, whether that's providing tanks or giving money to help the effort.  Sholz throws a wrench into this, for whatever f-ing reason, but hopefully we'll get past that ASAP.  But whatever we do needs to be in place for May/June offensives.  This constant dithering just keeps the war going longer, and the longer the war goes the more trouble it causes for UKR and the world.