How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

Good summary of what's happening N of Svatove, looks like some good news for UKR.  The grinding goes on.....

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/22/2148632/-Ukraine-update-Why-tiny-little-Novoselivs-ke-is-so-important-to-both-Ukraine-and-Russia

 

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

Fun fact: ostriches don't actually bury their heads in the sand - while they guard their nests, they lie with their necks flat along the ground, which creates the illusion from a distance.

(Don't mind me - spot the birder / natural history buff).

This is nice refreshment from previous beaver discussions.

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

--------- 2-3 battalions of 78th motorized Special Force regiment "Akhmat-North" (Chechnya, volunteer unit, not only for Chehens, created by Kadyrov and included in composition of 42th MRD)
 

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Rosgvardiya:

-----  3...4 combined groups of operative regiments (one of them 141st operative regiment from Chechnya), including Chechen battalions "Akhmat-South" and "Akhmat-Center"

Interesting that still most Chechen corps fights in southern sector. They seem to delegate only small detachments to Bakhmut offensive. I wouldn't read too much into it by itself, they have developed contacts with Southern MD, but worth to note nontheless. Moving them as rear troops  for mobiks in the future may be one of indicators where Muscovites plan to strike.

[NamEndedAllen]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

ATACMS and GLSDB are plug and play for the HIMARS. Send them both and lift the prohibition on hitting the closer logistics nodes in Russia. If Ukraine has any airframe that can use the Storm shadow, get those in there too. Last but not least round up literally every 155 tube in Europe that isn't in a frontline line country and send those. Start training on Abrams very publicly, and in quantity. A LOT of this is about demonstrating political will. Make it absolutely clear to the Russians that Ukraine is just going keep getting more stuff, and better stuff, and if Russia wants to draft 500,000 more people well those sad excuses for trenches make pretty good mass graves.

And build the the bleeping ammo plants!

 

Damn it, YES! And do it yesterday. This is nonsense, watching Ukraine burn as Russia *escalates* its crimes against humanity. While we fret about escalating! Most here agree that artillery remains the Queen of the battlefield, along with the aid of ISR. Artillery is accounting for so much of either side’s successes either directly, or indirectly by shaping the battlefield. Is it really really really gambling on thermonuclear war to supply the GLSDB, ATCMS, and heck, even the Storm Shadow? How much more of a nuke threat is Ukraine actually WINNING? Russia being forced out of much or all of Ukraine? Being utterly humiliated, without further hope of fulfilling Putin’s dream of hegemony? Or are we simply putting that so far into the future that we don’t have to be concerned about it? And believing Russia will collapse at some indefinite but helpful time in the future, and withdraw without deadly death rattling tantrums. Maybe so. There are good data to suggest the pressure is great. But can Ukraine’s citizens, their homes, their workplaces, schools, hospitals count on for ending their agony?  No. But they can and do count on the AFU. And also the resolve of the Western Allies. That resolve may or may not be infinite, beyond 2023-4.

This is the year to put that frog out of Ukraine’s pond, or so much so that the long predicted Russian military or political collapse, or awakening to reality brings them to reasonable negotiations. Turn the screws as Russia has been doing on Ukraine. Ukraine has earned at least enough trust that we ought not to fret they will use USA weapons on some cockamamie attack on Moscow or its nuclear weaponry. I fervently hope that the Allies or at least the USA have been forging a coherent, layered process for step by step integrating the full combined arms modernization of the AFU at or near NATO standards, culminating by 2025 or very soon thereafter. We’ve seen significant bits and drabs - introducing HARMS for instance. But an open commitment now is needed politically, in answer to Putin’s consistent and loud public stance on only victory, and whatever that takes. Rather than what can seem like reluctant and sporadic increases, often bitterly debated among nations. And not always focused on the next logical step in a larger plan. Steve and Cap have clearly laid out why M1s or Leopard 2s are not what is needed or are most effective. For gosh sakes alive, nearly a year of fierce war has gone by. Let us all know, Russia and Ukraine first and foremost, that the process is inexorable and is coming. Sung to the tune of “The Battle Hymn Of The Republic”!

Edited January 23, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[NamEndedAllen]

5 hours ago, Astrophel said:

he threatened to use more powerful weapons should US and Nato deliver weapons with which terrain could be recaptured.

Gotta love this hubris! “Not only may you not attack our country while we attack yours (and you aren’t even a country, hah hah), you are not allowed to take back your territory once we take it. Because, you know, we make the rules and everyone else has to follow them. We gave nukes! Hah hah hah”

I think India and China have recently made it clear that their relationships with Russia are terminated should Russia use nukes. 

[paxromana]

21 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

I think India and China have recently made it clear that their relationships with Russia are terminated should Russia use nukes. 

Doesn't Russia's relationship with anyone get terminated if they escalate to nukes ... possibly rather permanently ...

[dan/california]

You know Poland, The Baltics, and Ukraine were one country once. Could we extend that to a once and future formulation? Just to be clear I am talking about a purely voluntary federation that coincidentally tucks Ukraine into the E.U.and Nato the week after the shooting stops.

Edited January 23, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-22-2023

Prigozhin's rise and , probable, fall. 

[Beleg85]

16 minutes ago, dan/california said:

You know Poland, The Baltics, and Ukraine were one country once. Could we extend that to a once and future formulation? Just to be clear I am talking about a purely voluntary federation that coincidentally tucks Ukraine into the E.U.and Nato the week after the shooting stops.

Nope, too many non-aligning interests and identities. Some historical romantics here remind about it from time to time, but the problem with functioning Intermarium was always that danger of Russia alone is not enough force to create such geopolitical being. Also Ukrainian and Lithuanian views on Pol-Lith. Commonwealth heritage are naturally different than ours. Paradoxically, most keen on this memory are Free Belarussians, as evidenced for example by logo of Kalinousky regiment:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kastuś_Kalinoŭski_Regiment#/media/File:Полк_Каліноўскага._Лагатып.png

Also I would wait with judging entire Leo2 thing several days, it seems a lot is indeed happening behind doors, and those interviews by PM, articles in newspapers etc. are to keep pressure and probe social moods.

[chuckdyke]

5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Also I would wait with judging entire Leo2 thing several days, it seems a lot is indeed happening behind doors,

True and once vitriol leaves somebody's keyboard you can't put it back. Hard to distinguish fact from fiction.

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, paxromana said:

Doesn't Russia's relationship with anyone get terminated if they escalate to nukes ... possibly rather permanently ...

Yep. But what else do they have besides those two? Iran, North Korea… 

What a team!

[kevinkin]

Latest news on the MBT issue(s) - I think:

https://my.xfinity.com/articles/news-general/20230123/EU--Russia-Ukraine-War-7789

Simple endgames are what grandmasters strive for. 

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/dont-fear-putins-demise

Maybe those burning the midnight oil will have a bulb light up. A little too surgically clean; but why not consider the best but know its going to ne lot messier. 

Edited January 23, 2023 by kevinkin

[dan/california]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/dont-fear-putins-demise

 By Kasparov, and not paywalled.

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Nope, too many non-aligning interests and identities. Some historical romantics here remind about it from time to time, but the problem with functioning Intermarium was always that danger of Russia alone is not enough force to create such geopolitical being. Also Ukrainian and Lithuanian views on Pol-Lith. Commonwealth heritage are naturally different than ours. Paradoxically, most keen on this memory are Free Belarussians, as evidenced for example by logo of Kalinousky regiment:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kastuś_Kalinoŭski_

Regiment#/media/File:Полк_Каліноўскага._Лагатып.png

Also I would wait with judging entire Leo2 thing several days, it seems a lot is indeed happening behind doors, and those interviews by PM, articles in newspapers etc. are to keep pressure and probe social moods.

Not even the epidemic of stress induced strokes and heart attacks in Berlin is a sufficient inducement? Just kidding, mostly.

Belarussians have by far the most to gain, and only Mr. Potato to lose.

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

 

Prigozhin's rise and , probable, fall. 

Beat me to it   ISW has had quite a few detailed discussions about Prigozhin/Wagner in the past few days, but this one was really important.

As we've suspected, Putin allowed Prigozhin to be what he was and that he would, and did, shut him down without much difficulty.  For sure Prigozhin was angling to be much more powerful within the war effort, but unlikely gunning for Putin's throne.  Though who knows, people like him do tend to think bigger than they should. 

ISW concludes the January 22nd section on Prigozhin witih this:

Quote

But the re-emergence of the professional Russian military is also concerning. Prigozhin could never have established a formidable and sustainable national military apparatus. As long as Putin favored Prigozhin’s and others’ irregular approaches to continuing the war Putin postponed the day that Russian could re-establish a powerful conventional military. His re-embrace of Gerasimov and regular order has likely put Russia back on course toward rebuilding its military. NATO would do well to take note of this development as a matter of its own future security, beyond anything it might portend for Ukraine. 

Roughly translated, ISW thinks Russia is going to be fighting a lot better in the near future if, for no other reason, Wagner won't be there to set the bar so low.  Which is saying something since the Russian military set the bar even lower.

It seems ISW is somewhat concerned that Russia's relative military performance may be better in months to come because Wagner will not be sucking up resources for idiotic activities.  I do think it's possible that the Russians might fight better if they remain on the defensive, but if Putin decides to on the offensive again I don't think it will look any better than 2022.  Including burning itself out and then losing much of what it gained.

IMHO this is more evidence that Ukraine has decided to hold back and wait for Russia to strike first.  Ukraine can afford to delay an offensive, Russia can not.  It does appear to be the smart thing to do.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

About that "State Sponsor of Terrorism" designation thing... the US and European intel agencies believe Russia is behind a letter bombing campaign in Spain and says there may be more to come:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/22/us/politics/russia-spain-letter-bombs.html

Quote

American and European officials believe that Russian military intelligence officers directed associates of a white supremacist militant group based in Russia to carry out a recent letter bomb campaign in Spain whose most prominent targets were the prime minister, the defense minister and foreign diplomats, according to U.S. officials.
...
U.S. officials say the Russian officers who directed the campaign appeared intent on keeping European governments off guard and may be testing out proxy groups in the event Moscow decides to escalate a conflict.
...
U.S. officials suspect that the Russian officers involved in the Spain action are part of the 161st Special Purpose Specialist Training Center, whose headquarters in eastern Moscow house Unit 29155, among other groups, U.S. officials say.
...
The State Department designated the group [Russian Imperial Movement ] and its leadership global terrorists in April 2020, the first time such a label had been applied to a white supremacist group.
...
The same elite group active in Europe, Unit 29155, has operated in Afghanistan and offered bounties to reward Taliban-linked militants for killing American and coalition troops, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment first reported by The New York Times. American officials said in 2021 that they had no evidence showing the Kremlin had ordered the covert action.

This is yet another reminder of what appeasement gets us long term.  Russia has been using supposedly non-state actors, as the article puts it, for reasons of "implausible deniability".  Instead of the West getting tough with Russia, for the most part its actions were never dealt with out of concern of going down a rabbit hole of increasing escalation with a country designed to fight dirty.  Now that Russia is being dealt with militarily, it is time to deal with it's non-military attacks on the West.

Steve

[NamEndedAllen]

28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It seems ISW is somewhat concerned that Russia's relative military performance may be better in months to come because Wagner will not be sucking up resources for idiotic activities.  I do think it's possible that the Russians might fight better if they remain on the defensive, but if Putin decides to on the offensive again I don't think it will look any better than 2022.

I hope you are right and ISW is wrong. But one thing often described in past wars is that after a while, a larger percentage of the least experienced, least capable become the casualties; that however painful and slowly the remaining troops and leadership learn much more than what they began with. Russia in the past exhibited the ability to dig deep into its population and keep fighting despite massive setbacks. Yes, Ukraine’s matériel, inventory, training all are improving. At the same time Russia is getting something if a breather and the time to refocus its military leadership and approach to the war. I’m not suggesting they will be transformed overnight from the mess they’ve been. But it’s prudent to assume the professional military is not entirely and absolutely incapable of learning from its mistakes. Certainly under the thumb of the brutal WWII dictatorship, with all the purges and losses, Russia did learn a lot during that war. That was so despite its initial offensives not going well at all.

Russia won’t be able to keep up with Ukraine. But it may be improving enough to cause a lot more pain and suffering along the way. All the more reason for the Allies to buck up, and stop all the indecision and bickering. It gives Russia hope.  The piecemeal approach was understandable - unavoidable during the initial frantic months. Time now to have studied and agreed on a comprehensive and unified arming and training plan. Guys have already outlined the logic here in the forum. With each nation playing the part best suited for putting Ukraine’s military on the path to a rational outfitting in as short a timeframe as possible. With new NATO members in the offing, the exercise would be beneficial all around. Or else get out of the way of those who will.

[FancyCat]

FT article, on Germany. Nothing really new, except to underscore that Germany’s ruling coalition government is divided, so Baerbock’s statement does not necessarily mean change. We gotta wait for Scholz.

https://www.ft.com/content/91a9013e-56cf-4068-bb82-ead0cace069a

[poesel]

8 hours ago, fireship4 said:

This has been posted twice above, but I want to highlight it again - this seems like significant good news?  Or is it one wing of the government representing one party's position which may then be overruled by Scholz?

Yes & yes, but unlikely

Scholz overruling such an explicit statement of a coalition minister would be a serious blow and could very well end this government.
Usually, I'm not so fond of political moves. But here she kills two birds with a stone: Scholz and Poland. It's a jab at Scholz and forces the Poles to show their hand. Nice one.

[Huba]

9 minutes ago, poesel said:

Usually, I'm not so fond of political moves. But here she kills two birds with a stone: Scholz and Poland. It's a jab at Scholz and forces the Poles to show their hand. Nice one.

She could've said that no country will be blocked, not PL specifically - a small ambiguity but quite important. In any case, I seriously hope we'll now walk the walk and things will finally move forward. According to Reznikov the next Ramstein in the middle of February is to be about tanks and aircraft, sounds like reasonable timeframe for specific decisions.

 

In other news, Russia is alienating itself diplomatically, one step at a time.

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

19 minutes ago, Huba said:

According to Reznikov the next Ramstein in the middle of February is to be about tanks and aircraft, sounds like reasonable timeframe for specific decisions.

This will be a big one, as it happens right at the same time with the Munich Security Conference. We might see Zelensky and other heads of government attending directly there.

[Huba]

Perhaps something will happen tomorrow already:

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

There was an interesting article on Politico last Thursday,  which provided one more explanation for Germany's procrastinating on supplying arms: https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-strategic-timidity-olaf-scholz-us-washington-joe-biden/

My take from this is that Germany's industry wants Germany to be seen as the country most reluctant to act adverse to Russia's interest in order to help recreation of economic relations after the war. Basically to be able to tell Russians: "We have always been your friend, the US and the rest of Nato forced us, but we were always the least enthusiastic" and therefore be the most favoured nation (i.e. the least disfavoured) whenever the sanctions stop and Russia again starts opening to trade.

This makes sense. If it is true, then the consequences are both good and not so good: 1) German government is not adverse to the military support in principle, so eventually they should go along with pretty much everything the other partners want to do; 2) they will always be difficult and will always take a long time, because the pretense of resistance and indecision is the goal itself.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

This will be a big one, as it happens right at the same time with the Munich Security Conference.

Interesting choice of venue. PR-wise, it will be difficult to argue for appeasement.

[poesel]

3 hours ago, Huba said:

She could've said that no country will be blocked, not PL specifically - a small ambiguity but quite important.

There was no specific mention of Poland. I'm sorry if it came over that way.

[FancyCat]