How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Kinophile said:

Im sorry,  this is just a waste of time. 

Yup.  Until someone can explain a scenario for renewed fighting from Belarus that makes sense, I say it's all nonsense.  We've been hearing from the Chicken Littles of the world that the sky is falling since right after Russia withdrew.  IIRC only a few WEEKS after.  8 months later and nothing.

What we do know is that Russia has had great difficultly housing mobilized conscripts while training.  This is still the most likely explanation for the real sightings of Russians going into Belarus.  When they are rotated out they will transit through Russia to wherever they are going

Steve

[Zeleban]

Variant of the composition of combat trios (small groups)

 

head watch

-machine gunner

-machine gunner's assistant

-sapper

trio 1

-grenade launcher;

-assistant grenade launcher;

-spotter;

trio 2

-senior shooter;

-medic;

-sapper

management

-Platoon leader;

-shooter-quadrocopter operator

-radio operator 

[Zeleban]

the combat formation of assault groups consists of 2-3 companies and is determined by the commander based on the need.

 

the reconnaissance group can be divided between companies or act in the interests of artillery

 

tank group can act as a unit or divided between companies 

 

the electronic warfare group acts as a single unit or

 

flamethrower group can be distributed between platoons

 

UAV group acts as a single unit

other units can be attached to assault companies

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

They already are probably a thing. The Ukrainian Volunteer blog has a note about it,  where during briefing for a recon mission he asked about game cameras,  if Command had evidence if it was a real issue. The answer was they did not but best to assume it was possible. 

Yeah but but those are probably just ACTUAL game cameras. There are lot of improvements that could be made with a clean sheet military design. Especially in regards to communication protocols, encryption, jamming, and so on. Are you better off with truck load of the cheap ones? The question deserves asking. I suspect the deer hunter models are very hackable though. Nothing better than taking over the other sides security system and telling not to mention that whole mech infantry company that is passing through the woods

[Harmon Rabb]

Have not posted any of Arthur Rehi's videos in a while. With the guests he interviews now it looks like he is moving up in the world.

Seeing as we don't have any regular contributors from the Baltic states in this topic, it is interesting getting a Baltic perspective on the war.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Zeleban]

 

Assault units stop only when they reach the specified milestone. Then proceed to the equipment of firing positions. At this time, fire suppression units apply fire suppression for 60-90 minutes with all means, after which they conduct harassing fire at various intervals

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

If anything the US has had a moderating influence on Ukraine's ambitions to get everything back near term.

Moderating and the only chance as well. I don't think the writer discounts Ukraine's desire at all. Or the US's. How could he? He is pointing out that good intentioned desires might not deliver exactly the outcome everyone wants all the time. But he does not understand the west has to get this right. Falling short in Afghanistan and Iraq is one thing, but he is overly pessimistic on Ukraine. I am getting a sense, in a non-statistical way, that his type of sediments are growing among those who don't understand what's at stake or simply don't give a damn and tire of the images. Fortunately, those who understand are starting to pick up the pace of support - AFVs etc.. These foreign policy geeks hate to have their hands tied without having any number of options. They hate it when the waters are clear and choices binary. There is a reason the State Dept. is referred to as Foggy Bottom - it's not only the location. 

Edited January 18, 2023 by kevinkin

[Zeleban]

As far as possible, the routes of movement of assault companies should exclude movement along streets and roads. For safe progress, passages are broken through in the walls of houses and in fences. For this, tank fire is used (admit it, who did the same in CM). Also, each soldier can carry explosive charges and be able to use them.

[Zeleban]

In a well-defended multi-story building, if it is impossible to capture it immediately, the "squeezing" method is used (do not try to block it). In this case, support weapons are used as much as possible, and assault squads occupy neighboring buildings. At the same time, the enemy is trying to retreat from the building and in the open area suffers losses from artillery and mortar fire

[Beleg85]

Interesting sets spotted near Bakhmut. TOW+M2 on humvee, still in desert camouflage...it seems they were eager to send it.

 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

Boom boom boom  I'd give that much more priority than tanks, that's for sure!

 

 

Now we are getting somewhere.

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/berlin-wont-allow-exports-of-german-tanks-to-ukraine-unless-u-s-sends-own-tanks-officials-say-11674069352

Seem like current negotiatining position of Scholz for conference.

*sigh* I admit that is a little... bewildering...

Ok... let's put aside emotions for a while and take a look at the big picture and think about it. From what we discussed over the last couple dozen pages, how many Leo 2s could be found that the respective armies would want to part with or that could be refurbished within an acceptable amount of time? I mean, we were talking about what? A brigade's worth of tanks a month?

So, wouldn't more tanks have to come from elsewhere, no matter what?

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Now I seriously wonder if anyone here has those Dollars handy and feels tempted...

Elon Musk here! Me! Me! I’m so special, so me want special CMBS! Taking it with me to Mars, suckers! 

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Now we are getting somewhere.

That's some great news.  So 150km (93 miles) is gonna be a nice disruption on the supply dumps that RU moved just out of HIMARS range.  I hope they are here soon, if not already.

 

6 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Interesting sets spotted near Bakhmut. TOW+M2 on humvee, still in desert camouflage...it seems they were eager to send it.

 

And once again, is it any wonder UKR wants IFVs, especially bradleys?  And tanks?  Even once all the fancy tools significantly cut RU supply lines there are still bunches of mobiks (and real soldiers) that have to be forced out of positions.  Arty & killer drones will weaken and suppress them, but still need to assault sometimes.  Especially when the mobiks know if they leave their positions they'll be killed by their own side.

[Zeleban]

 

To penetrate a multi-storey, multi-entrance building, an assault platoon is recommended to act in the following order:

1.  on the 1st floor of the entrance, a military guard is set up - 1 person to prevent an attack from the basement or from the street.

2. The platoon moves along the flight of stairs in combat troikas that cover each other

3. Cleaning is carried out apartment by apartment on each floor, taking into account the number of rooms in each apartment. 3 people are enough for a one-room apartment

4. When cleaning a floor on a flight of stairs, a combat guard of 1-2 people is set up to prevent an attack from an uncleaned apartment or from the upper floors

5. After cleaning all the floors of the entrance, on the 2nd floor, the wall of the apartment breaks into the next entrance with the help of plastic explosives (just like in CM )

6.flights of stairs of the upper floors are mined to prevent penetration into the rear of the attackers

 

[FancyCat]

Just a firing ring of rumors back and forth. What seems to be true is Germany wants the U.S to send tanks before allowing any Leopards to be sent.

 

Look, I understand that Germany wants to not go alone, except you aren't!! Come on goddamn it.

[Huba]

16 minutes ago, Butschi said:

*sigh* I admit that is a little... bewildering...

Ok... let's put aside emotions for a while and take a look at the big picture and think about it. From what we discussed over the last couple dozen pages, how many Leo 2s could be found that the respective armies would want to part with or that could be refurbished within an acceptable amount of time? I mean, we were talking about what? A brigade's worth of tanks a month?

So, wouldn't more tanks have to come from elsewhere, no matter what?

AFAIK Ukrainians used to have 31 vehicles per battalion, but were switching to larger ones consisting of 44 vehicles. These would be the minimal sizes of building blocks we should be using. 1 battalion per mech brigade? But we'd probably want the western tanks in armored brigades, so at least 90 vehicles to equip one, though IIRC Ukrainian brigades are rather big, with at least 4 line battalions, so 130 vehicles would be optimal I guess. Perhaps mixing battalions equipped with various Leo versions in a single brigade would be acceptable. 

Morawiecki in his appeal to Scholz asked to create a brigade equipped with Leo2. Poland offered a company of 14, so we need a at least 76 more to make it meaningful.
I don't think that Finland made any concrete proposal, perhaps they could also part with a company. I don't recall any other offers.

1 minute ago, FancyCat said:

Just a firing ring of rumors back and forth. What seems to be true is Germany wants the U.S to send tanks before allowing any Leopards to be sent.

Blinken neither confirmed nor denied that the new package will include US tanks. Perhaps this knot will just be cut by Americans going first.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Huba

[fireship4]

1 hour ago, Twisk said:

Sorry again for using reddit for posts

It's only a problem if they auto-play.  If they do, they should instead be posted as a link (there is an option for this).

[FancyCat]

I mean if we want to pressure the U.S into ensuring a proper Ukrainian unit is outfitted fully, isn’t the way to go for Germany and other Leo using nations to get together, pledge what they can and state it’s not enough, and ask the U.S for more tanks? If the U.S is being unreasonable, this makes it clear who is unreasonable. 

[danfrodo]

I am all for the suggestion from somewhere above.  Just drive a few Polish Abrams over the border, sign over the titles.  It's all for show, since Sholz obviously needs some kind of show for every f-ing decision.  Meanwhile, more Ukrainians die every day.  

[Haiduk]

UKR serviceman (likely artillerist), who fihgts on southern section of Bakhmut front, writes, situation in artillery in last several days changed on his opinion as 50:1 (outcoming-incoming) in UKR favor. And as if all last advances of Wagners are mostly because their endless zerg-rashes. I don't know is this true or just his subjective opinion from cutted section of front, but similar information about growing conflict between General Staff and Wagner, as if Wagners begin suffer ammo defficite, because Army interfere their supply and Army units don't hurry to suport them with own artillery

 

 

And new video of Madyar - Wagner assault group crossed Bakhmutivka river behind western outskirt of Soledar and concentrated in the ditch. Very bad and fatal decision. All 15 got first place in competition of "figure lying" (C) Madyar

 

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

UKR MANPAD team hears Russian helicopter somewhere close, but alas, they didn't spot it

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Beleg85]

46 minutes ago, Butschi said:

*sigh* I admit that is a little... bewildering...

Americans should now openly push the narrative in German newspapers that Bradley is in fact a tank... and voila.

4 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

Yeah, given state of Duda's command of english it's actually quite realistic...

Edited January 18, 2023 by Beleg85

[Zeleban]

4 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

he reminds me more and more of the President of Belarus - Lukashenkо. He probably comes up with excuses for Putin in the same way.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Zeleban