How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

Once upon a time the Netherlands belonged to Spain too.

[Huba]

 

3 minutes ago, Fernando said:

2. We already had a short war in Ifni in 1957 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ifni_War ), problems in the Spanish Sahara in 1975, an incident over Perejil Island in 2002 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perejil_Island ), the border incidents in may 2021  ( https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incidente_fronterizo_entre_España_y_Marruecos_de_2021) and so on. Morrocco has NEVER been a trusting friend nor an ally.

Morocco agreed to part with 90 of their tanks that were being upgraded in Czechia, and send them to Ukraine. I think if Spain donated say a battalion of 2A4, it wouldn't disrupt the force ration between your countries 

https://cepa.org/article/morocco-breaks-africas-neutrality-with-arms-for-ukraine/

[Haiduk]

Videos of pro-UKR Chechen battalion after name of Sheikh Mansur, fighting in Opytne southern from Bakhmut

Some urban fighting:

Also Sheikh Mansur battalion video. Work of sniper pair with a cover. They spotted a group of Russians - spotter tracks result of fire, sniper shots. Claimed they eliminate two Russians. After shots all quiclky change position. 

Note for CM - it's hard to model such holes in walls, through which sniper can shoot stealthily , so maybe it's has a senese to make walls of damaged buildings "transparent" for snipers?

One more video from Bakhmut defense - mortar crews of 241st TD brigade of Kyiv (likely their 205th TD battalion).

 

Edited January 15, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_MonkeyKing]

4 minutes ago, Fernando said:

The Spanish problem is Morocco.

1. Spain has two cities on the north African coast (Ceuta and Melilla) and several islands and islets (Perejil, Chafarinas Islands, Alborán island, Peñón de Vélez and Peñón de Alhucemas)  off the north African coast. They have been Spanish for centuries, but Morocco claims they should be Moroccan. Last, but not least, they also claims the whole continental platform up to the Canary Islands.

2. We already had a short war in Ifni in 1957 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ifni_War ), problems in the Spanish Sahara in 1975, an incident over Perejil Island in 2002 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perejil_Island ), the border incidents in may 2021  ( https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incidente_fronterizo_entre_España_y_Marruecos_de_2021) and so on. Morrocco has NEVER been a trusting friend nor an ally.

2. Ceuta has some land protecting it, but the only way to defend Melilla is assaulting the macizo del Gurugú (Gourougou Massif) and the high ground close to the city. MBT could not asssault the Gurugú, but are nice support weapons for any infantry assaulting all the high ground around Melilla.

3. Spain has usually neglected their armed forces, but has always tried to keep a clear superiority over Morocco. It means having a good air force (Ejército del Aire), able to quickly gain air superiority over Ceuta, Melilla and the Canary Islands, a navy strong enough to be able clear the sea from Moroccan ships and land some forces on the Moroccan coast, and keeping army forces strong enough to make some limited offensive operations in that area. 

BTW, my grandfather on my father side fought in Morocco in the 20's, while my better half's father fought in Ifni en 1957. In Spain, most people realize that Morocco has been our enemy more often than not.

OTOH most of the Leopard 2A4 are in a pity state, because they were an stopgap measure until the Leopard 2E ( the Spanish version of the Leopard 2A6) were available. The 2A4 have been in storage since the Leopard 2E were received. They could be send to Ukraine after being refurbished.

Interesting . With distance knowledge indeed lessens, I never thought about Spains defense policy and it actually pointing south. 

We fins have a saying: "Finnish security policy is threefold: Russia, Russia, Russia"

I am only thinking of 2A5 and better for UKR. Look out, Finns are after your 2E tanks for UKR!

[Fernando]

9 minutes ago, Huba said:

 

Morocco agreed to part with 90 of their tanks that were being upgraded in Czechia, and send them to Ukraine. I think if Spain donated say a battalion of 2A4, it wouldn't disrupt the force ration between your countries 

https://cepa.org/article/morocco-breaks-africas-neutrality-with-arms-for-ukraine/

Morocco army to receive M1A2 Abrams MBTs after M1A1 SA:

https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2022/01/346522/morocco-to-receive-latest-version-of-us-m1-abrams-tanks

The Moroccan tanks to be sent to Ukraine are T-72, not Leopard 2A4. 

Edited January 15, 2023 by Fernando

[Zeleban]

37 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think his point was that even in the simulator the jump between the two platforms is very difficult.  Sims can give us hints of what the real world is like, provided they are basically sound.  I have no opinion of this flight sim, but I do have an opinion of Combat Mission

Steve

I didn't say the transition would be easy. I said that it would not take many months due to the complexity of the weapons system. In addition, pilots who already know how to fly a helicopter and who know the principles by which a helicopter flies will be involved in Apache training. And the main thing that will be needed from the pilots is to get the skills to control this particular model.

I cited the flight simulator as an illustration of the weapons control system. And by no means do I claim that after playing Apache for a couple of months, I am ready to sit down to control a real helicopter.

[Boche]

21 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Thank you for the Spain insight. I somehow always thought Spain as pretty militarist and ready to go with the Ukraine support.

Never thought it would have been a taboo of any sort.

 

Your welcome. Just to clarify. Spain in general has been favourable to actual support of Ukraine, which was a welcome suprise to me. I was very happy to see all those C90 at weapons go over, aswell as all the M113s. We did send another mish mash of gear which to be honest is preety crap but hey it is what we have.

Going back to the support. Ukraine has served to push the narrative here the the military is actually there for something and the Armed Forces atleast are trying to capitalize on this to get more funding (funding that is desperately needed and has been put off for decades).

Before Ukraine all this was much harder to aquire and justify.

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, Fernando said:

Morocco army to receive M1A2 Abrams MBTs after M1A1 SA:

https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2022/01/346522/morocco-to-receive-latest-version-of-us-m1-abrams-tanks

The Moroccan tanks are T-72, not Leopard 2A4. 

Sure, that's why I mentioned a battalion (for Ukrainians it's 30 or IIRC44 vehicles), not ninety.

Please don't treat that rant too seriously, I'm pulling your leg at least a bit here. On a serious note though, you will need something much better to keep a parity, not to mention superiority over Moroccans armed with latest M1A2, so perhaps shopping and replacing the old boats is in order anyway? This article you linked says that Moroccans are only considering the purchase, it takes more than 5 years for it to materialize, perhaps longer in current situation.

Edited January 15, 2023 by Huba

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Boche said:

Well I would disagree. Taking away Eastern Europe, who now has seen their main threat lose their military in Ukraine, and Greece, We are the last country in Europe bordering a hostile neighbour. We have a history of scuffles with them and I do believe that eventually its gonna go hot in someway.

C'mon, Portugal is not that bad.

A lot of interesting details about Marocco-Spanish relations in the last 2 pages- it's understandable that from this point of view Spain perhaps will not be very willing to give away their tanks in numbers.

Which again lead us to Germany case...am I wrong or Kretschmer is trying to gain some points inside the party before Rammstein conference?

https://www.rnd.de/politik/gaspipeline-nord-stream-1-michael-kretschmer-fordert-reparatur-SURNJXIINWIJ67222LUHLZ7HJY.html

Edited January 15, 2023 by Beleg85

[Shady_Side]

12 hours ago, JonS said:

Sure, although several of the primary defendants were acquitted, and half did not receive a death sentence. For the military tribunals 250 were found not guilty, and the vast majority of the rest were not executed.

Yes; it was important.

No: it wasn't a kangaroo court.

These two observations are not independent of each other. As I've said before - if you want to be the good guy, you have to do the good things. Kangaroo courts are not good things. By promoting them, Shady_Side is actively trying to undermine Ukraine's war effort.

Shady Side is not trying to undermine Ukraine at all..........................................................

Reread what I said... I want Putin to have a quick and fair trial.....and then be escorted to the hangman...... And if anything that approaches justice comes out of this war Russia will have to pay reoperations for all of the damage they have caused to property. There is not enough money in the world to pay for even a tenth of the suffering and death they have caused to Ukrainian soldiers not to mention all the murder, rape, and torture of the civilian areas they occupied. That is a debt that only the hangman can take a deposit on, and the balance can be paid in what comes after for them. Again though. After a fair trial. That is every bit as important as my focus on punishment. If the people that took part in the act can be found after the war, great they can have their trials to. Something I firmly believe now, is a piece of advice I got years ago when I was promoted into a management position in a small family business in my hometown. Everything the people under you do is something that you either taught them to do or you tolerated them doing. Either way your responsible for it. Maybe I am wrong about that when you scale it up to a military and the country that supports it. If I am a fair trial would sort that out..........

 

Since you have me on a rant let me continue. I hope that what I said was not taken by many of you all as me attempting to undermine Ukraine. I do get an uneasy feeling that because of how well Ukraine has done so far that it has lead to some unrealistic expectations of how this war can end. Mainly because no matter how brave of a fight Ukraine puts up how this thing ends is largely dependent on how much we in the US and the West in general is willing to support Ukraine. 

About that support. People seem to fall in 2 categories. Those on the internet that closely watch everything and strongly support Ukraine and KNOW they are going to win. And those in my everyday life that either don't know much about it or don't care much about it. But they know we have already spent to much money on it and don't want to get world war 3 over a country they occasionally see on the news, usually because we just sent them another billion or two in aid. So the longer this war goes on the softer western support will be.

In closing let me be clear I think we should do everything possible to ensure a quick and complete Ukrainian victory but I am not sure Western support will last that long or run that deep. I could fill up another page or two on why I think that but will spare you guys from reading all that for the time being. I just did not want any misunderstandings from anyone on what I want to see at the end of this war, even if it is not what I think we will see

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

because Russia is a direct combatant.  What happens when Russia hits one of those depots and kills a dozen civilian contractors from the US or UK?  Will it spark a political backlash to either commit troops or withdrawal support?  Is that a risk worth taking right now?

For what are essentially paid western mercenaries?  I seriously doubt it.  No more than we have seen political backlash for westerners killed in combat from the international legions.  We learned in Iraq that contractors on the battlefield are pretty much spinning the wheel and taking chances.  A maint depot get hit and kills a dozen contractors is less a political issue and and more of an economic one.

[Haiduk]

Death toll in Dniprio has raised to 30 (including 15-year girl), 73 wounded, 30-40 still under ruins. 

On the photo a 23-year girl, sitting on 7th floor, who hide in bathroom during air raid alarm, when the missile hit in their block. Her parents were in the rooms, which collapsed and now they under ruins. Reportedly in September her guy lost at the war

Edited January 15, 2023 by Haiduk

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

if your goal is to use it as a stand-off weapons launch platform and cruise missile hunter, not caring much about SEAD or fighting for air superiority.

Then just keep the capabilities on the ground and you don't have to find pilots. There is a large portion of a population who don't have the where with all to fly at all or even meet the physical requirements. Not to mention the maintenance needed on aircraft and the seemly offensive nature (attacking into Russian proper) that a world class multi-role fighter would bring to the table. 

[sburke]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

For what are essentially paid western mercenaries?  I seriously doubt it.  No more than we have seen political backlash for westerners killed in combat from the international legions.  We learned in Iraq that contractors on the battlefield are pretty much spinning the wheel and taking chances.  A maint depot get hit and kills a dozen contractors is less a political issue and and more of an economic one.

The US army was in Iraq.  I wouldn't be so sure the reaction in the US would track the same in this case.  Not saying I wouldn't like that option to be available to help scale up UA capabilities, just not sure of the political calculus.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

One of the biggest “effects” in the old films was using the Black and White film medium! They can do so much more showing of “mood” with the shading. Biggest reason I’m against “colorizing” the old classics.

The damned talkies ruined everything!

[Haiduk]

Aftermath of next attack of Russians on Avdiivka

 

[Fernando]

5 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Interesting . With distance knowledge indeed lessens, I never thought about Spains defense policy and it actually pointing south. 

We fins have a saying: "Finnish security policy is threefold: Russia, Russia, Russia"

I am only thinking of 2A5 and better for UKR. Look out, Finns are after your 2E tanks for UKR!

 

The big problem is that Canary Island are protected by article 6 of the NATO treaty, but Ceuta and Melilla are OUT of the treaty. 

Article 6 1

For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:

on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France 2, on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;

on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.

 

[Zeleban]

5 minutes ago, Shady_Side said:

Shady Side is not trying to undermine Ukraine at all..........................................................

Reread what I said... I want Putin to have a quick and fair trial.....and then be escorted to the hangman...... And if anything that approaches justice comes out of this war Russia will have to pay reoperations for all of the damage they have caused to property. There is not enough money in the world to pay for even a tenth of the suffering and death they have caused to Ukrainian soldiers not to mention all the murder, rape, and torture of the civilian areas they occupied. That is a debt that only the hangman can take a deposit on, and the balance can be paid in what comes after for them. Again though. After a fair trial. That is every bit as important as my focus on punishment. If the people that took part in the act can be found after the war, great they can have their trials to. Something I firmly believe now, is a piece of advice I got years ago when I was promoted into a management position in a small family business in my hometown. Everything the people under you do is something that you either taught them to do or you tolerated them doing. Either way your responsible for it. Maybe I am wrong about that when you scale it up to a military and the country that supports it. If I am a fair trial would sort that out..........

 

Since you have me on a rant let me continue. I hope that what I said was not taken by many of you all as me attempting to undermine Ukraine. I do get an uneasy feeling that because of how well Ukraine has done so far that it has lead to some unrealistic expectations of how this war can end. Mainly because no matter how brave of a fight Ukraine puts up how this thing ends is largely dependent on how much we in the US and the West in general is willing to support Ukraine. 

About that support. People seem to fall in 2 categories. Those on the internet that closely watch everything and strongly support Ukraine and KNOW they are going to win. And those in my everyday life that either don't know much about it or don't care much about it. But they know we have already spent to much money on it and don't want to get world war 3 over a country they occasionally see on the news, usually because we just sent them another billion or two in aid. So the longer this war goes on the softer western support will be.

In closing let me be clear I think we should do everything possible to ensure a quick and complete Ukrainian victory but I am not sure Western support will last that long or run that deep. I could fill up another page or two on why I think that but will spare you guys from reading all that for the time being. I just did not want any misunderstandings from anyone on what I want to see at the end of this war, even if it is not what I think we will see

 

 

 

 

 

As far as I understand, you are clearly not from Poland or from the Baltic countries. There is a much better understanding of the situation. They know that after Ukraine, Putin will not stop. It is much better to fight on the territory of a neighboring state than on your own, take my word for it.

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Shady_Side said:

About that support. People seem to fall in 2 categories. Those on the internet that closely watch everything and strongly support Ukraine and KNOW they are going to win. And those in my everyday life that either don't know much about it or don't care much about it. But they know we have already spent to much money on it and don't want to get world war 3 over a country they occasionally see on the news, usually because we just sent them another billion or two in aid. So the longer this war goes on the softer western support will be.

I could sign off on that observation too. I'm sure West will do what is needed this year, and hopefully 12 months from now it will either be over, or the fact that "we" are about to win soon will be so obvious that there won't be much point in discussing the further support. Otherwise we might enter dangerous territory.

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, womble said:

Looks like I misunderstood what you meant about modular kit not needing much technical training. As I interpreted it, you wouldn't be sending the tanks back and forth to Poland, just the postulated FCS module.

Then you will need techs forward to do the switch calibrate the equipment, gun plumbing stuff.  These are MRTs now that need to be equipped and specialized in that sort of work.  Could train crews to do it but remember we have cut down crew training to essentials. The skills to do “whole tank” do not disappear, they can be distributed or centralized but not removed.

In order for the tank to stay forward you need to bring the skills to it.  And we are back to a heavier logistics bill or contractors in-country.

[The_Capt]

51 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Philip OBrien put me on to this guy:

 

Now that is interesting.  Not sure how accurate but the long range artillery (which should include the HIMARs, as they are not being employed for dumb volley area denial fires), ratio is telling.  Also everything Russia has significant superiority in does not seem to matter….why? is a really big question that needs to be answered.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Isn't that for Switzerland to decide though?

Yes, and it is for me to judge them for their choice.  I bet there's more than a few Swiss that would agree with my PoV on the matter.

1 hour ago, JonS said:

When we retired our A4s a couple of decades ago the plan was to sell them, and s buyer was found - in South America IIRC. The US nixed that one, even though the US can barely be considered neutral and wasn't at war or in conflict with either party.

If the country that you guys wanted to send the stuff to was having a genocidal war of aggression waged against it, then I'd disagree with my government's nixing of the deal.  But absent that, politics are politics and without the details I don't know that the US made the wrong decision (likely it did, based on how bad our policies are in South America).

1 hour ago, JonS said:

And that was for 1950s tech. I'm having a hard time getting riled at the Swiss for behaving the same with much more relevant tech.

Oh, I'm not getting riled up.  I just think it's a crappy call.

Steve

[Haiduk]

M270 launch

 

[Zeleban]

this is what I call a war crime, the Russian offers to put a bullet in the head of our fighter. Another Russian takes out a knife and tries to cut the throat of our prisoner.

[The_Capt]

16 minutes ago, sburke said:

The US army was in Iraq.  I wouldn't be so sure the reaction in the US would track the same in this case.  Not saying I wouldn't like that option to be available to help scale up UA capabilities, just not sure of the political calculus.

I doubt that volunteer contractors getting paid 4 figures a month are going to be what breaks the political calculus.  In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if there were not intelligence contractors in country already.  Moving to logistic support is not a giant leap.  In fact the if Ukraine is paying, the US government cannot stop western contractors from taking the jobs regardless.  Hell we couldn’t keep westerners from joining and fighting with ISIS.