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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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2 minutes ago, Zeleban said:
Some on this forum have argued that the Russians will face a shortage of clothing. As you can see, this problem can be solved. Nothing prevents Putin from supplying mobics with civilian shoes and clothing

They clearly have no style. I would expect wearing PRADA at the minimum...

Prada Combat Boots & Ankle boots for women | PRADA

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On 1/13/2023 at 12:23 PM, danfrodo said:
On 1/13/2023 at 11:57 AM, Battlefront.com said:

Biologists are correct!  <snip> In my recent case the problem was only solved because, although fantastic engineers, they aren't good at judging where and when to cross a busy street at night.

This is a tour de force of all things beaver, and quite a very enlightening yet entertaining book.  <snip>

Eager-Surprising-Secret-Beavers-Matter

I heard him or someone who agrees with him interviewed (not 100 percent sure it was this author) but they made a compelling case that the lack of Beavers is one reason we have flooding problems. We clearly do stuff that make the problem worse ourselves and none of that helps guys like Steve who have road, buildings and other infrastructure where the beavers would like 6 feet of water :D

Edited by IanL
Fix missin letter
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35 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

Some on this forum have argued that the Russians will face a shortage of clothing. As you can see, this problem can be solved. Nothing prevents Putin from supplying mobics with civilian shoes and clothing

yeah but what will the women wear once they start drafting them?!

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30 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

German Def.Sec. will most likely step down. Successor unknown.

 

Finally - just read an article today which described her kind of leadership 'palliative'...

Official announcement likely on Monday. Let's see if she will just be replaced or if they will shuffle some ministers around.

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1 minute ago, poesel said:

Finally - just read an article today which described her kind of leadership 'palliative'...

Official announcement likely on Monday. Let's see if she will just be replaced or if they will shuffle some ministers around.

I wonder who will represent Germany on the meeting of the defence chiefs before next Ramstein? There are just few days left. 

In other news, Iranian Grads in UA service:

 

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1 minute ago, Huba said:

I wonder who will represent Germany on the meeting of the defence chiefs before next Ramstein? There are just few days left. 

Next Ramstein meeting is on the 20th. New minister will be appointed on the 16th. Should be more than enough time to get to the same level as the previous minister. :)

Just now, DesertFox said:

To be replaced with Eva Högl.../sarcasm off

Or Strack-Zimmermann and depose of Wissing to get the balance right again. Win-Win  :D

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11 minutes ago, Khalerick said:

How does Ukraine ever win this war militarily absent of NATO putting boots on the ground and tempting WWIII?

There have been a number of options discussed on this forum over the last 1900 pages. The last synopsis wasn't very long ago, but I guess it's probably quite a few pages, if you're new :)

Basically, it boils down to killing enough Russians that the live ones get fed up and go home. Whether that's because the civilian population start to feel the pinch enough to do something about it, or the situation at the front becomes so untenable that the troops mutiny.

So far, UKR has ejected RUS from more than half of the land that was grabbed in the first "surprise attack". NATO-provided munitions seem to have (helped out no end by Russian command incompetence) evened out the artillery battles, and nothing the Russians have tried has worked out as well as they might have hoped (to put it very mildly).

Russia's ability to recover from the disasters and debacles that have befallen its armed forces is significantly constrained, and those constraints are only going to get tighter as sanctions bite. They couldn't have replaced the materiel losses that they've sustained, even if their economy was untouched; it took 40 years to accumulate what's been spaffed into the mud of Ukraine in the last almost-300 days, and all the prewar talk of "unique weapons" has turned out to be Armata-shaped smoke and mirrors. Russia will struggle to give all the next wave of mobiks assault rifles; they can't even give the current wave proper boots.

If what UKR already have from NATO doesn't turn out to be enough, there are further capabilities that  NATO can provide, given time and Will. Longer-ranged precision artillery; heavy armour; SotA airpower. Futher atrocities and intransigence can be met also with stronger sanctions and better enforcement of the existing measures. Russia's allies are deserting her and the messaging from the Kremlin is getting so divorced from reality that it really only has any traction at all with the mind-f***ed Russian populace (out of any demographic that actually matters). Even the pariah states that are helping are doing so only to stick an impudent digit up at "The West". And their capacity to assist is strictly limited.

Or, at least, that's my limited understanding of the major points. I'm sure I've missed several somethings, but hopefully it's not too far from the general thrust of opinion for "ways and means".

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2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Come on, is the leopard really not overweight enough that you need to add dynamic protection?🙃

It's lean and mean at IIRC 55 tons for the 2A4. Leo2 should be handed only on the condition that they will be covered with ERA! 

 

Edited by Huba
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On 1/12/2023 at 1:39 AM, The_Capt said:

According to wiki (sourcing stuff I cannot read) it shows the UA with 32 Mechanized Brigades

Total number of brigades can give only estimate number of armor by "shtat". But reallity is much worse. For example, less of half of new-formed 6x brigades got status "mechanized" (but only half of this half had tank battlions in own composition) and other were just "infantry" because of lack of armor. Only since December all 6x brigades got status "mechanized" (but I think this is mostly up front). Soviet legacy, actively used since 2014-2016 in endless marches, maneuvers, warfare, especially since 24th Feb will not gain more "health" because of this. As far as in ATO our soldiers had a joke "Our platoon has three BMP - the first can drive only, the second can shoot only, the third exists on the paper only"

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39 minutes ago, Huba said:

On the topic of killing Russians:

 

That looked to be a HIMARS hit.  Seemed too big for a 155 PGM.

I think we're now seeing that because Russia has either lost or relocated to the rear most of its juicy targets (bridges, HQs, and ammo depots) it has freed up Ukraine's PGMs for use against routine tactical concentrations.  Recently there's been a focus on infantry, from large multi hundred concentrations to smaller platoon sized ones.  Which makes sense because Ukraine isn't going to sit around doing nothing with these weapons.

What we're seeing in videos like this is how quickly one mistake made under the eyes of a drone can lead to a large tactical unit ceasing to exist.  If there were 50 mobiks in that building, I doubt any of them are going to be in combat any time soon.  And even if they are, it will likely be with a concussion, hearing loss, etc.

Steve

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1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

Some on this forum have argued that the Russians will face a shortage of clothing. As you can see, this problem can be solved. Nothing prevents Putin from supplying mobics with civilian shoes and clothing

Oh, I wouldn't say solved.  Even good quality Western military boots wear out quickly in the sort of high intensity warfare that is going on all over Ukraine.  I wouldn't be surprised if boots like these don't last a month.  Then what?

That said, I think we might have a situation similar to the 1942 production of T-34s.  They were rushed out of the factory with all kinds of problems, but since they weren't expected to survive more than (IIRC) 2 weeks of combat it wasn't a big deal.

Steve

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6 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

As I understand it UKR never had any meaningful amount of ammo for the Smerch or even Uragan.

We had. But some part was used in 2014-2015. And huge number of Smerch ammo and some less for Uragan were lost because of explosions on several arsenals before a big war. So, despite we have more Smerchs on armament, than Uragans, but on videos you can see mostly Uragans. 

Ukriane developed more precise rockets for Smerch - "Vil'kha" (70 km range) and "Vil'kha-M" (130 km).  Standard rocket for Smerch has 90 km of range. But in 2019-2020 only 98 "Vil'kha" rockets were bought by MoD. "Vil'kha-M" didn't pass tests because of accuracy and other problems. "Vil'kha" should have 10 m accuracy on 70 km, when Vil'kha-M - 30 m on 130 km. This is not HIMARS too. 

According to some rumors "Vil'kha" still produced, but in small numbers, so it usage is episodical. 

Also were a tales how battery of Smerch tried to hit Snake island, but all rockets missed. 

Edited by Haiduk
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3 hours ago, Zeleban said:

– On the territory of Belarus, starting from 01/06/2023, units of the 6th Motor Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps, understaffed with "mobics", began to arrive. Apparently, the enemy command will do the same with them as with the "mobics" of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division of the 1st Guards. TA - train at Belarusian training grounds ...

The most interesting thing is that about a third of this division is now operating in the area of Kremennaya and Svatovo and the Russian command has no way to get it out of there ... How is it going to "train the mobilized personnel of the division" in isolation from its "combat core" .. I personally imagine it's hard enough.

This has been a problem for the Russians since about March.  They really don't have enough forces to cover the entire front, which means every unit withdrawn for rebuilding leaves a hole at the front if there isn't a unit newly rebuilt that can take over its position.  Pulling entire units out and rebuilding them properly doesn't seem to be the Russian way of doing things.  Gut feeling on that.

Steve

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48 minutes ago, Huba said:

It's lean and mean at IIRC 55 tons for the 2A4. Leo2 should be handed only on the condition that they will be covered with ERA! 

It's former Soviet custom to put it everywhere. They place ERA like good grandmother cookies into children basket on sunday trip.😉

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, I wouldn't say solved.  Even good quality Western military boots wear out quickly in the sort of high intensity warfare that is going on all over Ukraine.  I wouldn't be surprised if boots like these don't last a month.  Then what?

That said, I think we might have a situation similar to the 1942 production of T-34s.  They were rushed out of the factory with all kinds of problems, but since they weren't expected to survive more than (IIRC) 2 weeks of combat it wasn't a big deal.

Steve

Till the end of the year many Muscovites will probably wear tracksuits and (faked) adidas sport shoes like they did in Chechnya. Some analysts here predicts that it is more probable they will run out of personal stuff much sooner than from AFV's if they indeed will mobilize these 500k. We will see half-military gopniks riding on BMPs like in 90's...

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27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That looked to be a HIMARS hit.  Seemed too big for a 155 PGM.

I think we're now seeing that because Russia has either lost or relocated to the rear most of its juicy targets (bridges, HQs, and ammo depots) it has freed up Ukraine's PGMs for use against routine tactical concentrations.  Recently there's been a focus on infantry, from large multi hundred concentrations to smaller platoon sized ones.  Which makes sense because Ukraine isn't going to sit around doing nothing with these weapons.

What we're seeing in videos like this is how quickly one mistake made under the eyes of a drone can lead to a large tactical unit ceasing to exist.  If there were 50 mobiks in that building, I doubt any of them are going to be in combat any time soon.  And even if they are, it will likely be with a concussion, hearing loss, etc.

Steve

Yesterday there was an estimate of already 4000 casualties on Russian side at just the recent Soledar battle.

Can't remember CNN or Dutch news or somefink, but seems very plausible.

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