How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Reportedly not all cruise missiles reach Ukraine, several fell on Russian territory. One of them in village of Volgorad oblast. Two houses were damaged, no casualties.

According to preliminary information, in this attack Russia first time since long time used Iskader-K ballistic missiles additionally to cruise missiles. Reportedly 20 missiles were launched, 12 were intercepted: 6 over Kyiv and suburbs, 5 over Zhytomyr oblast, 1 over Khmelnytskyi. One Orlan-10 was shot down in Kyiv oblast. More detailed info from Air Force Command is expected.

Now knowingly about at least two of three hits in Khmelnytskyi - militrary unit, fuel station and some storage. One missile hit the road in Mykolaiv oblast, creating huge crater, at least one hit in Zaporizhzhia, but it maybe caused by S-300.

 

Edited December 31, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

Just now, Haiduk said:

More critical need in armor are IFV and APC. And of course artillery and ammunition.

Infantry and infantry support and precision fires.  In a lot of ways this war is really driving things back to basics.  That and I suspect the modern IFV is demonstrating that it is not only capable as intimate fire support but in a lot of ways better than armour, especially when combined with unmanned systems and precision fires. 

[Kinophile]

I will say this, that on the rare occasion I play as US I most often plumb for a bradley co over M1. This is for simple quantity of eyes, networking and thermals, giving me tactical redundancy.  In smaller battles, if you lose an M1 you lose a LOT of capability in one go. 

It's hard to kill an M1 but I try to not  underestimate my tactical stupidity :P. So I assume I'll lose something,  and I'd much prefer that was 5% of my mech element than 25%.

Im perfectly comfortable going up against a RUS MRBt with Bradleys. That says a lot about the group capabilities of the things. 

It also suggests that if UKR gets Bradleys then it's because it has the ISR and battle information management capabilities to make full use of them.

My RL and in-game impression is that these things are not metal cabs,  they're armed,  tough mini-command and strike coordination centers.

That's their true super power, bringing a high and wide battle awareness to the bleeding edge, and surviving/killing at will.

Plus their organic crunchies survive for longer...

Edited December 31, 2022 by Kinophile

[Lethaface]

15 hours ago, MikeyD said:

Germany got something of a bloody nose (by proxy) when all those videos of Turkish Leopard 2s getting smacked around in Syria appeared on the web. One has to wonder if their hesitation to provide tanks to Ukraine has something to do with them fearing to have Leopard 2 outed as a paper tiger.

IIRC most of the losses where from the Turks using their Leo2A4s as 'static weapon systems' which were stalked/flanked by ATGM teams. Paper Tigers campaigns for CMSF Nato module already taught that isn't a good way to use tanks (insofar CM can show that). Whether they be Leo2A6, M1A2SEP, etc  

[chrisl]

If we’re making unrealistic lists of things that might actually make a difference, put me down for a dozen EA-18s and 100 F-35s with medium range air to ground and long range air to air missiles.  Air supremacy would give extremely effective CB fire, destruction of RA supplies at unreasonably long distances from where they’re needed, and get rid of some RU aircraft before they can even launch toward Ukraine.  

[Haiduk]

Russian MoD claimed their troops captured village Dorozhnianka in Zaporizhzhia oblast. There are no visual confirmations yet, but some unconfirment RUMINT from UKR side tell this is true. As if two platoon strongpoints couldn't repell attack of reinforced company and next UKR counter-attack was unsuccessful. Dorozhnianka already was captured by Russsian in March, but since mid of May was recaptured by UKR forces. This is last village on the way to one of strongholds of UKR on Zaporizhzhia direction - Huliaypole town. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

I will say this, that on the rare occasion I play as US I most often plumb for a bradley co over M1. This is for simple quantity of eyes, networking and thermals, giving me tactical redundancy.  In smaller battles, if you lose an M1 you lose a LOT of capability in one go. 

One of the most eye opening experiences I ever had with Combat Mission of any flavor, going back to CMBO, was during Beta testing CMSF.  I vividly remember running a Stryker Platoon in a gully, dismounting, then taking up reverse slope positions facing an oncoming Syrian mech force with tanks.  Don't remember the size, but I do remember they ceased being a problem before I ran out of Javelins. 

It was right there and then that I learned that a dismounted US equipped Rifle Platoon was one of the most badassed formations I'd ever had the virtual pleasure of commanding.  The Strykers were an excellent ride to the battlefield, and were excellent for cleaning up the mess the infantry made, but were not essential to victory.  On the other side of the equation, trying to advance with mounted infantry was pretty much suicide if the opponent was armed with capable ATGM systems.

This war shows me CM did a good job teaching me how real battlefields work.

Steve

[Zeleban]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Reportedly not all cruise missiles reach Ukraine, several fell on Russian territory. One of them in village of Volgorad oblast. Two houses were damaged, no casualties.

According to preliminary information, in this attack Russia first time since long time used Iskader-K ballistic missiles additionally to cruise missiles. Reportedly 20 missiles were launched, 12 were intercepted: 6 over Kyiv and suburbs, 5 over Zhytomyr oblast, 1 over Khmelnytskyi. One Orlan-10 was shot down in Kyiv oblast. More detailed info from Air Force Command is expected.

Now knowingly about at least two of three hits in Khmelnytskyi - militrary unit, fuel station and some storage. One missile hit the road in Mykolaiv oblast, creating huge crater, at least one hit in Zaporizhzhia, but it maybe caused by S-300.

 

At least we managed to avoid damage to the Energy System from Russian missile attacks.

[Zeleban]

https://t.me/tpkr1775/16866

 

Santa claus invented a new way to deliver gifts to bad boys

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This “where are the Leo2’s/M1s!!” is like a chronic cognitive yeast infection on this thread.  Does anyone actually still believe that 200 of either of these platforms would sweep the Russians from the field?

If one could get past the integration bill (training, organization and logistics), which is a pretty big hurdle in the middle of a shooting war - “what about the M777 and Pz 2000!?” well integration of a few dozen arty sub-units is one thing, and even with these we know there have been challenges.  Integration of a Bdes worth of armour which has to fight in close cooperation with a Ukrainian military organized very differently than the German or US Army is something else entirely.

But for arguments sake let’s bypass those issues and say in 6-12 months the UA can fully integrate these systems into their current battle order…ok, so what?  Last I checked both the Leo2 and M1 still run on the ground and are vulnerable to mines, which we know the Russians are planting everywhere.  They are big, fat, hot concentrations of steel that even the RA ISR will be able to find quickly.  The RA still has ATGMs last I checked, and a lot of them. And last I heard all western tanks run on gas…a lot of gas, and need ammo and spare parts.  So their logistics system will also be a big target.  In fact a lot of what we have heard and seen on tanks in this war makes little sense in terms of doctrine - “indirect fire role 10kms from the FEBA”, how are western tanks going fundamentally change this?

I get the sense that some still believe that 200 Leo 2’s or [insert my favourite tank from CM] would end this war by next Tues. Well that position is not supported by the evidence we have seen in how this war is being fought.  In fact the cost of a few hundred western tanks could be more than they return on investment at this point.  To wit The_Capt’s prescription for western support:

- give them all the C4ISR 

- give them stuff they can use, right now.

- prioritize supporting the big three - infantry and infantry support, unmanned systems (both offensive and defensive/counters), and precision fires.

- prioritize logistics.

- and once you have got all that, then send in limited complete tactical capability packages that the UA can operationalize.  So we are talking a western tactical system, top to bottom, that the UA can make best use of in how they are waging this war.  One that does not force them to have to shift entirely to a western based doctrinal approach that we have zero evidence would even work.

People want this to be a nice and neat western conventional war, over in a week or two…it is not, that ship has sailed. In fact the few western near-peer conventional wars we have had are terrible parallels to try and draw from for this war.  This is the real deal - brutal, grinding and drawn out.  This does not mean “frozen”, it means attrition is back in play - it is foundational in corrosive warfare. Fast, loose and easy manoeuvre warfare is sitting on the sidelines with a broken nose.  We all need to get used to that idea.

All war is certainty (a vision of how we want the outcome to be…we cannot lose this), communication (it goes slow…then fast), negotiation (what does victory look like?  What does defeat look like?), and sacrifice (what are we willing to pay?).

https://www.saab.com/products/ground-launched-small-diameter-bomb-glsdb

It has been brought up before but 150km plus range of the rather interesting combination of two pieces of preexisting hardware seem like the next step. I have no idea what Saabs initial production capacity will be, but ALL of it should bes hipped straight to Ukraine. As much as I dislike the incremental approach, it is the way the game is being played, and the GLSDB is the next increment.

It is also well above freezing across the entire front. I stand by my statement that we don't know anything except that it is to muddy for large scale operations.

[FancyCat]

As one proponent of western tanks to Ukraine, I'm not wedded to the idea that a M1 or Leopard must be sent, I am wedded to the idea that the West must continue escalation of aid to Ukraine, what form it takes does not matter as long as Ukraine benefits from it.

Bradley and Marders IFVs, fantastic. ATACMS, fantastic. More artillery? Good. Does not matter what is sent, only illustrating to Putin that Western resolve is firm and ironclad and that he should pursue peace and withdrawal now than risk complete collapse later. Clearly Russia does not believe in western resolve, nor in Ukraine's ability to hold, Western tanks are a symbol therefore of the West's commitment to Ukraine that it will do what it takes to ensure Ukrainian victory.

The west is boiling the frog, presumably to prevent Russian panic and escalation. Meanwhile Ukraine suffers, and a slowly boiling frog believes all is well, it must merely wait and the heat will die down. Yet more Ukrainians (and Russians) die.

If another mobilization is begun as predicted by Ukraine, it only indicates Russia is doubling down in the belief that victory or at least short term stalemate is possible and Russia will prevail.

Bradleys and Marders would be a good response.

I think boiling the frog, basically giving Putin escalation dominance is a good strategy, but that must be coupled with Western willingness to escalate. Luckily Bradleys and Patriot systems are a well worthwhile escalation.

 

[Zeleban]

 

[dan/california]

I wonder if Western intelligence has a good feel for the size of the traveling cast that does these little fictions. Is there a manual that states the minimum distance that must be maintained between Putin and and the first person who is not part of his entourage? It would make a fascinating little addendum to the eventual history books.

[Zeleban]

42 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I wonder if Western intelligence has a good feel for the size of the traveling cast that does these little fictions. Is there a manual that states the minimum distance that must be maintained between Putin and and the first person who is not part of his entourage? It would make a fascinating little addendum to the eventual history books.

I am sure that all distances are clearly specified. Work as a member of the Putin retinue is very painstaking and stressful

[Haiduk]

Rare footage of UKR 2S3 SP-howitzers shoot with direct fire

 

Edited December 31, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

UKR BM "Bulat" (or last version of BM2 "Bulat") was hit in top turret with HEAT shell from enemy tank. "Nizh" ERA saved the tank - no penetration, but explosion of the shell and ERA inflicted next damages - HMG, commander's cupola (triplex broken), radio equipment (probably antenna was destroyed), wind sensor

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

 

Reminds me of that Russian woman that was hired in 2014 to show up all over the place in Crimea, Odessa, Donbas, etc. to rant about Ukrainian Nazis.  There were entire webpages dedicated to tracking her movements.  It would be hilarious if it wasn't so effective.  Most news agencies and news consumers never knew the woman was a total fake.

Steve

[Zeleban]

 

[Haiduk]

Two explosions in Kyiv sky. Also reports about AD work in Kyiv oblast. Russians continue to congratulete us.

Reportedly 6 Tu-95 and 2 Tu-160 in the air. Some Shakeds in UKR airspace. Awaiting of next launches.

[Kinophile]

5 hours ago, Lethaface said:

IIRC most of the losses where from the Turks using their Leo2A4s as 'static weapon systems' which were stalked/flanked by ATGM teams. Paper Tigers campaigns for CMSF Nato module already taught that isn't a good way to use tanks (insofar CM can show that). Whether they be Leo2A6, M1A2SEP, etc  

Exactly. Very few (any?)  vids from Syria of Leo' kills wiyh the Leo not in an emplaced/static overwatch position. Literally sitting ducks. 

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, Zeleban said:

https://t.me/tpkr1775/16866

 

Santa claus invented a new way to deliver gifts to bad boys

Oh man

I lol'd, out loud and proper. 

[FancyCat]

Zelensky's NYE speech. Subtitles in video.

 

[Vet 0369]

On 12/29/2022 at 11:39 AM, Bulletpoint said:

But that doesn't explain why gas prices are now back down below what they were before the war started?

In a word, Market Futures. The Commodity Traders either panicked about the gas supply being cut off and driving up the price of future gas supplies, or they got greedy and bought up the futures in anticipation of making a killing on the afore said future gas supplies.

[LongLeftFlank]

Indeed. 

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/12/31/on-the-way-back-we-ran-across-a-lot-of-dead-russians/

Ukrainian soldiers have also proven themselves to be very motivated and fast learners. The “too much time needed to train” excuse is just that, an excuse.

 

 

Edited January 1, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

...or that's what they want Ivan to think.

Ukraine fighting is deadlocked, spy chief Kyrylo Budanov tells BBC

The making of a young Hero of Ukraine

92nd Mechanized Brigade is named after Ivan Sirko, a 17th Century Cossack military leader.

There are few obstacles as fiendish, or varied, as Ukrainian mud. One moment it's a deep, sucking soup, the next a thick putty clogging machinery, weighing down boots, and gumming up everything. We drive past one soldier who is hammering frozen chunks of it off his stranded truck with a mallet.

It isn't just the crude Iranian buzzbombs being knocked down.

I'd attend church more if this guy was officiating....

 

 

Edited January 1, 2023 by LongLeftFlank