How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Thread with notables chiming in on Bradley potential, including General Hertling, and Jack Watling from RUSI. Quite positive. So is the majority of Ukraine's IFV force composed of BMP-1s and not more modernized stuff?

Most of their BMPs are BMP-2, just like on the Russian side.  Though I expect Ukraine has a higher percentage of BMP-1s than within the total Russian force pool (DPR had a lot of BMP-1s at the start of this conflict, likely ran that down significantly).  And there are still plenty of MT-LBs being used as carriers, which are by default unarmed.

Their Western supplied armored rides are probably an increasingly large portion of total force, but I expect it's still a solid minority at this point.  Just a gut feel on that.

Steve

[dan/california]

31 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

TIL:
Ukraine Poised to Become First Operator of 150-Kilometer Precision Bomb:
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/11/29/ukraine-first-operator-precision-bomb/

So the same idea as NASAMS meaning adapting the plentiful and hightech airlaunched munitions to groundlaunch. This time it is just precision guided bombs.

Ukraine will take as many as they can make, as soon as they can make them!

[Zeleban]

https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/soldiers-of-the-ukrainian-55th-artillery-brigade-operate-on-news-photo/1245869232?phrase=ukraine&adppopup=true

The obvious solution against Lancet drones

[Kinophile]

On a somewhat tangential distraction,  TIL that Igor Gerkin was a coup defender in the 1991 anti- Yeltsin coup attempt.

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Indepth half our video produced by NY Times showing the documentary evidence of the Russian 234th Airborne Assault Regiment's warcrimes in Bucha. 

Obviously we here are all very aware of what happened there, but it's still worth watching if for no other reason than to see how difficult it is to hide criminal activities in a modern urban environment.  The evidence gathered from an active combat zone is astonishing.

It will be interesting to know how many of the soldiers from the murder spree are still alive.  My guess is many will never be held accountable because they were killed in action.  So far the Regimental commander, LTC Gorodilov, is not on sburke's list as far as I know.  Shame.

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

Our favorite Aussie PowerPoint presentation creator released his last video of the year.

[FancyCat]

No damage visible after the latest attacks on Engel. Reduced aircraft activity tho.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-no-damage-seen-at-russian-bomber-base-after-drone-attacks

 

[Grossman]

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

We should file this in the huge "You can't make this stuff up" cabinet draw: Belarus demands Ukraine explain why an S-300, supposedly from Ukraine, landed on Belarus soil after Russia launched a barrage of missiles from within its territory:

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-belarus-downed-missile-russia-provocation/

Whatever the case may be in reality, Ukraine is doing the right thing by suggesting the missile was a Russian ploy to try and trick Belarus into joining the fight directly.  That really screws with Belarus' narrative.

Steve

If Lukashenko joins Putin in the war, that's the end of him. The Russian "Federation" is falling apart. Surely Lukashenko appreciates the game is already over. 

[danfrodo]

8 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Our favorite Aussie PowerPoint presentation creator released his last video of the year.

ah, perfect.  I was just trying to find something to watch while on exercise machine today.  Right now it looks like RU has much worse arty issues.  Each side having shortage should not be surprising but it's more a question of which side is suffering most from 'shell hunger'.  I still think UKR is suffering mostly from mud, else there'd be some real gains happening.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

So far the Regimental commander, LTC Gorodilov, is not on sburke's list as far as I know.  Shame.

Steve

not yet anyway.

[Zeleban]

knocking down a Shahed with AAA Gepard

[OldSarge]

I haven't seen this article posted though we've discussed the topic often enough. At least now there is some meat to it.

Starting in January, 500 Ukrainian troops a month will travel to Germany to train with the U.S. Army, the Pentagon announced Thursday.

The training will be focused on battalion-level operations, said Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, during a press briefing.

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2022/12/15/us-to-begin-training-hundreds-of-ukrainian-troops-every-month/

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian soldiers gathered at the Kharkiv cemetery for the funeral of one of their comrades, December 30, 2022. EVGENIY MALOLETKA / AP"

[sburke]

should have left with his paymasters

Detention centre employee who helped torture Ukrainians found in Kherson (yahoo.com)

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, OldSarge said:

I haven't seen this article posted though we've discussed the topic often enough. At least now there is some meat to it.

Starting in January, 500 Ukrainian troops a month will travel to Germany to train with the U.S. Army, the Pentagon announced Thursday.

The training will be focused on battalion-level operations, said Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, during a press briefing.

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2022/12/15/us-to-begin-training-hundreds-of-ukrainian-troops-every-month/

Nice to see staff level training going on.  Russia has such a dearth of this even in the best of times, which means every improvement notched by the Ukrainians should have an outsized potential for battlefield impact.

Steve

[poesel]

59 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

knocking down a Shahed with AAA Gepard

That interface looks so old, it is no wonder nobody dared to touch the software and translate it. Luckily, German is such an easy language to understand.

As a side note: I wonder what the designers of this thing in the 70s would think, if someone had told them that their machine will be used by ex-Soviet soldiers (*) to shoot down Iranian aircraft started by Russian soldiers.

(*) you now what I mean...

[Battlefront.com]

Yet more speculation about Putin's health.  This from the Danish intel services.  Further, they claim Putin was undergoing hormone treatment for thyroid cancer and that the treatment has a known side effect of causing "delusions of grandeur" and this, in turn, might have played into his thinking that going to war was a good idea.

https://www.businessinsider.com/putins-cancer-drugs-warped-ukraine-russia-decision-making-danish-intel-2022-12

Whatever is really going on with Putin, or not, there seems to be no end to the speculations about his health.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, poesel said:

That interface looks so old, it is no wonder nobody dared to touch the software and translate it. Luckily, German is such an easy language to understand.

Jawohl

6 minutes ago, poesel said:

As a side note: I wonder what the designers of this thing in the 70s would think, if someone had told them that their machine will be used by ex-Soviet soldiers (*) to shoot down Iranian aircraft started by Russian soldiers.

(*) you now what I mean...

Cripes, those guys are probably still trying to wrap their heads around the Soviet Union not existing any more   In the 1970s there was absolutely NO sign that the Evil Empire™ was going anywhere.  In fact, with all the left wing crazy stuff going on within Europe it wasn't all that wrong to wonder if they might come out on top.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Internatinal MaxxPro MRAP after the battle - soldier praises the toughness of armor and shows bullets and the tail of RPG being stuck in armor plates

 

Edited December 30, 2022 by Haiduk

[Zeleban]

15 minutes ago, poesel said:

That interface looks so old, it is no wonder nobody dared to touch the software and translate it. Luckily, German is such an easy language to understand.

As a side note: I wonder what the designers of this thing in the 70s would think, if someone had told them that their machine will be used by ex-Soviet soldiers (*) to shoot down Iranian aircraft started by Russian soldiers.

(*) you now what I mean...

Apparently you did not have to be inside the Soviet air defense systems. This is what I call "old". SAM Simulator. 

 

I recommend to those who wish to understand the general principles of the operation of Soviet air defense systems. Available systems are: SA-75M Dvina (SA-2F Guideline) , S-75M3 Volhov (SA-2E Guideline), S-125M Neva (SA-3B Goa) , S-200VE Vega-E (SA-5B Gammon), 9K33M2 OSA-AK (SA-8B Gecko), ZSU-23-4V1 Shilka.

https://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home?pli=1

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, kevinkin said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-unaccustomed-to-losing-is-increasingly-isolated-as-war-falters/ar-AA15NItw

Luka better stay away from windows this New Year. And have the caviar checked with a Geiger counter to be on the safe side. 

When Vladimir Putin visited Minsk last week to discuss deepening cooperation, a sarcastic joke by his host, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, seemed to ring all too true. “The two of us are co-aggressors, the most harmful and toxic people on this planet. We have only one dispute: Who is the bigger one? That’s all,” Lukashenko said.

Good article.  This part, in particular, sums up what we've talked about endless numbers of times:

Quote

Alexandra Prokopenko, a former adviser at Russia’s Central Bank who resigned and left Russia in the weeks after the start of the invasion, said in an interview that her former colleagues “try not see the war in terms of winners and losers. But they know there is no good exit for Russia right now.”

“There is a feeling that we cannot attain the political aims that were originally forwarded,” the state official said. “This is clear to all.” But no one knows how large a loss Russia can sustain before its leaders believe its existence is in jeopardy, he said.

Further underscoring the growing distance between the president and the business elite, Putin also canceled his annual New Year’s Eve meeting with the country’s billionaires, officially citing infection risks.

The elites know that the war is lost with no hope of gaining any of the original goals.  So why continue it?  Because the only way for the war to end is to admit defeat.  The only way that will happen is if Putin and his goons think another day of war will result in regime change. Until then, death and destruction to the detriment of Russia continues.

Not really a good plan, eh?

Steve

[Haiduk]

25 minutes ago, poesel said:

f someone had told them that their machine will be used by ex-Soviet soldiers (*) to shoot down Iranian aircraft started by Russian soldiers.

As far as during ATO UKR tank-expert Andriy Tarasenko (btvt LJ) wrote: "If Morozov /designer of T-64/ and Venediktov /designer of T-72/ knew their tanks will fight each other in the war between Russia and Ukraine, they would hug and shot themselves"

Edited December 30, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Internatinal MaxxPro MRAP after the battle - soldier praises the toughness of armor and shows bullets and the tail of RPG being stuck in armor plates

 

There's a vehicle that got itself into a really, really bad situation. Good to know these things can take massive punishment and still protect crews.  In Iraq and Afghanistan these vehicles were more likely to get hit by IEDs than concentrated small arms and RPG fire.  Good thing that RPG round was a dud!

Steve

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good thing that RPG round was a dud!

Soldier said this RPG tore down some box on the back. 

Edited December 30, 2022 by Haiduk

[Yet]

On 12/29/2022 at 1:45 PM, Bulletpoint said:

Putin's feared gas weapon turned out to be a weak fart.

But even after watching this video, I am not sure how it was possible to replace so much Russian gas so quickly.

 

a lot of answers have been given. but add one more to the list: an actual 24% drop in EU gas demand. 

https://www.ft.com/content/0ab21afc-d034-4279-8ce1-4469d0ce8489

everywhere i come i see thermostates at 19 degrees, sofas shoved away from the radiatior, radiator foil, vents under the radiatior. Also industry takes its share, esp in gass-rich sectors like flower-farming, vegetable greenhouses, and heavy industry.