How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

If stamping out and annihilating every last instance of a bad idea were possible, politics at least in the USA would be far more rational than today!

For ideas that you consider “bad” yes. Unfortunately, they may be ideas that I consider to be perfectly valid GOOD ideas. How do you resolve that conflict of values and beliefs?

[NamEndedAllen]

7 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

For ideas that you consider “bad” yes. Unfortunately, they may be ideas that I consider to be perfectly valid GOOD ideas. How do you resolve that conflict of values and beliefs?

Not my aim! And I mostly agree with you. Unless your ideas are about racist supremacy crap or favoring the Dallas Cowboys. Or Jewish Space Lasers. That stuff.  I was responding to Cap’s post stressing the need to correct mistaken ideas here and elsewhere, lest they affect governance and the like. 

[NamEndedAllen]

U.S. Will Train More Ukrainian Troops, Adding Advanced Battle Tactics
S. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-troops-training-pentagon.htmlWill Train More Ukrainian Troops, Adding Advanced Battle Tactics
The expanded training would emphasize “combined arms” warfare — tight coordination among infantry, artillery, armored vehicles and, when it is available, air support, so that each group is strengthened and protected by the others.

Ukrainian officials have been wary of pulling too many troops off the front lines at any given time for specialized training given the intensity of the war. But with winter slowing the tempo of fighting in many parts of the combat zone, officials said the coming months would provide a window for more troops to benefit from training.

The training is expected to begin in January and would enable American instructors to train a Ukrainian battalion, or about 500 troops, each month, a number that could grow, Brig. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, said at a news briefing. Other U.S. officials said the battalions could range up to 800 soldiers each

[Battlefront.com]

It's been a while since I restated my thinking on tanks, so why not refresh everybody's memory

1 hour ago, holoween said:

So for the question of tanks being obsolete.

What is a tank supposed to do?

Lately it seems the primary role of a tank is to either support or oppose the movement of infantry.  Either by shooting their rides out from under them or by directly shelling their positions.  I suspect tank on tank combat is more a byproduct of this role more than anything.

As the Polish general said, the days of marauding tanks breaking through the enemy's lines and smashing things in the rear appear to be over.  Or at least need a serious rethinking of traditional combined arms concepts.

1 hour ago, holoween said:

Why cant it do that currently?

Tanks are big, loud, and juicy targets.  They attract a lot of attention and there are many things on today's battlefield that can provide attention.  The closer tanks are kept to the front, the more likely they will be spotted, and the more likely something will disrupt their ability to perform their assigned tasks.  Not necessarily because they throw their turrets into the sky, but because they might throw their turrets into the sky.  Tankers that aren't skittish are probably going to die sooner rather than later.  Tankers that are skittish are going to be less effective in some situations than they would have been 20 or 30 years ago.

1 hour ago, holoween said:

Why does this not apply to other AFVs?

It does.  The thing is that AFVs are less expensive to make and maintain, they are also more plentiful in numbers.  Losing armored infantry vehicles isn't great, but it is more sustainable than losing tanks at a similar rate.  Also, the primary role of an APC/IFV is to transport troops from A to B safely, secondary role is support.  If the situation is too dangerous, then the APC/IFV can still perform most of its mission and withdraw before being destroyed.  A tank's primary role is support, therefore if it isn't exposing itself to destruction it isn't performing its main function.  And no, I do not consider indirect fire to be an acceptable secondary use of a tank.

1 hour ago, holoween said:

What do you replace it with?

I think tanks will be replaced by a combination of platforms, including UGV.  A platoon accompanied by a couple of heavily armed UGVs is probably going to get better and more consistent support than it will from a single tank.  Especially if the enemy has decent counter armor capabilities.  Better to have two of something than one of something.  Also better to have two things smaller to find and hit.

For infantry, I foresee heavily armored vehicles that are no longer designed to directly support infantry.  They are built to keep the infantry alive while being transported.  Vehicle drives into hostile environment, drops off infantry and support systems (including UGVs and UAVs), then gets itself back to safety.

I think we're quite a ways away from this happening, in part because old habits die hard.  Purchasing habits most of all don't go down without a significant fight.

Steve

[NamEndedAllen]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Tricky.  Does the UA have the capacity to take enough troops off the line for 6-12 months of training?  Does the UA logistical system have the slack to be re-tooled?  The West could set it up, nothing money couldn't solve.

If we think this war is going to last another 12-24 months then I would seriously start thinking about it, along with a domestic Ukrainian arms industry.  The UA is going to run out of Soviet-style equipment eventually and the Russian's have deeper pockets on paper.

Gotta admit it is an idea.

NYTimes: U.S. Will Train More Ukrainian Troops, Adding Advanced Battle Tactics
”Combined Arms” Infantry, artillery, armor, and air support when available.

[sburke]

Russia to scrap punishments for crimes in occupied Ukraine if ‘in interest of Russian Federation’ (msn.com)

[FancyCat]

The units that took part in the counter offensive? didn't some of them go off the front for a few months? 2-4 months?

[kevinkin]

Not surprising, but news today on the Patriots:

Russia's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said in a weekly briefing that the U.S. had "effectively become a party" to the war in Ukraine, per AP.

Ramping up U.S. military assistance, including the transfer of these weapons, "would mean even broader involvement of military personnel in the hostilities and could entail possible consequences," she added, without going into details.

https://www.axios.com/2022/12/15/russia-us-missiles-ukraine

https://dnyuz.com/2022/12/15/the-hellish-groundhog-day-trap-putin-could-force-us-into/

And one of the ongoing fears about leaving Russia with a Putin and access to missiles:

“It’s Groundhog Day in a war zone with [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky playing the role of Bill Murray,” a senior U.S. intelligence official charged with monitoring the conflict says. “Putin isn’t going to stop and he’ll take out whatever is rebuilt just for spite.”

“The Russians are firing about 20,000 artillery shells a day, most of them more than 40 years old,” an analyst explains. “Ukraine fires back with between 4,000 to 7,000 rounds a day. Russia can’t keep that up, so even if they cut back to 10,000 a day—not including rockets and weapons attached to drones—that’s still a lot of hellish damage to the rebuilding effort.”

Although there’s no doubt that Zelensky’s benefactors are sympathetic and eager to fashion what Shapochkina describes as “an overall expectation that postwar Ukraine can emerge as a second Germany in terms of industrial capacity,” intelligence officials say those efforts are doomed to fail until Putin is removed from the trillion-dollar calculation.

There’s another elephant in the room,” warns one intelligence specialist. “How do the politicians dispense what will undoubtedly amount to more than $1 trillion in a country that’s historically corrupt.”

Ouch.

Edited December 16, 2022 by kevinkin

[Battlefront.com]

59 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

The units that took part in the counter offensive? didn't some of them go off the front for a few months? 2-4 months?

There were some newly formed Reserve units that didn't get to the front until Kherson and Kharkiv, but I'm not sure any pre-war units were pulled out of the fight to be built into something different.

Steve

[FancyCat]

 

 

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

Given where all this started, it's mindboggling to me that these guys are still up there contesting and winning control of the space. Just amazing.

[dan/california]

53 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Not surprising, but news today on the Patriots:

Russia's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said in a weekly briefing that the U.S. had "effectively become a party" to the war in Ukraine, per AP.

Ramping up U.S. military assistance, including the transfer of these weapons, "would mean even broader involvement of military personnel in the hostilities and could entail possible consequences," she added, without going into details.

https://www.axios.com/2022/12/15/russia-us-missiles-ukraine

https://dnyuz.com/2022/12/15/the-hellish-groundhog-day-trap-putin-could-force-us-into/

And one of the ongoing fears about leaving Russia with a Putin and access to missiles:

“It’s Groundhog Day in a war zone with [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky playing the role of Bill Murray,” a senior U.S. intelligence official charged with monitoring the conflict says. “Putin isn’t going to stop and he’ll take out whatever is rebuilt just for spite.”

“The Russians are firing about 20,000 artillery shells a day, most of them more than 40 years old,” an analyst explains. “Ukraine fires back with between 4,000 to 7,000 rounds a day. Russia can’t keep that up, so even if they cut back to 10,000 a day—not including rockets and weapons attached to drones—that’s still a lot of hellish damage to the rebuilding effort.”

Although there’s no doubt that Zelensky’s benefactors are sympathetic and eager to fashion what Shapochkina describes as “an overall expectation that postwar Ukraine can emerge as a second Germany in terms of industrial capacity,” intelligence officials say those efforts are doomed to fail until Putin is removed from the trillion-dollar calculation.

There’s another elephant in the room,” warns one intelligence specialist. “How do the politicians dispense what will undoubtedly amount to more than $1 trillion in a country that’s historically corrupt.”

Ouch.

I think this war is going to make Ukraine a far less corrupt country in a several ways.

First a truly significant fraction of the entire male population is experiencing trench warfare, and they are not doing for the privilege of being messed with by corrupt traffic cops.

Secondly, Ukraines connections with Russia in general, and corrupt Russian oligarchs in particular are just gone. I don't think they are coming back anytime soon.

Third, Ukraines homegrown oligarchs have mostly had their empires, be they economic, political, and/or criminal crushed by the war. The guy that used to run Azovstal being the most obvious example. Every single pillar of the power that once made him untouchable in, and nearly as strong as, the Ukrainian Government is just gone.

So if the EU stays involved, and Zelensky stays long enough, but not too long, it really could all come good in the end. They have beat the Russians too obviously..

[dan/california]

In due time the EU needs to find Zelensky a truly high level job in Brussels. The only people who have done more for the IDEA of the EU are coming home from the trenches in flag draped coffins. And if you tell me Zelensky doesn't feel every one of them I will post the clip of him greeting/honoring the families again.

Edited December 16, 2022 by dan/california

[dan/california]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/resurfaced-video-ukraines-zelenskyy-spoof-034106999.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABOstI7wutPrUvKoo7xW1QYOWr5ha2212sIzAMBZpIZP_XUqYGHnuIjhLuUW0X0MgkkC1NR8dto-QkPmm9XqV8BLV3nSMyGAQJY_-5IEyrkhCZv3VpFiRuS_afmNqRSoK5KuTqvOQjT7ptIxW64ssiVnQigaJFUWF23SVmC0vOWF

On a happier note, since it is almost Christmas, this is a clip from the TV show that made him President.Which he pretty much wrote, produced starred in, and so on. He has been thinking about, and pushing for Ukraine in the EU for a LONG time.

Edited December 16, 2022 by dan/california

[kevinkin]

11 minutes ago, dan/california said:

this war is going to make Ukraine a far less corrupt country

That may be true and could be a silver lining. But the term used was historically corrupt. Ukraine will need brave investors that will take risks understanding the possible gains to be realized. Politicians are not risk takers resulting in a potential back log of funds when Ukraine will need them the most. In any case, finding investors willing to re-build normalcy when their efforts can be ruined by an Iranian drone flight will be difficult. So one strategic aim is to produce conditions on the ground that will safeguard those investments. Not to mention the complexity of money coming in from all angles and being dispersed likewise. We have to cheer for a young democracy to be able handle such a situation. It will be tempting to take a piece of reconstruction pie. 

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

That may be true and could be a silver lining. But the term used was historically corrupt. Ukraine will need brave investors that will take risks understanding the possible gains to be realized. Politicians are not risk takers resulting in a potential back log of funds when Ukraine will need them the most. In any case, finding investors willing to re-build normalcy when their efforts can be ruined by an Iranian drone flight will be difficult. So one strategic aim is to produce conditions on the ground that will safeguard those investments. Not to mention the complexity of money coming in from all angles and being dispersed likewise. We have to cheer for a young democracy to be able handle such a situation. It will be tempting to take a piece of reconstruction pie. 

It will be a high risk investment initially, other than things essentially guaranteed by the EU/US. There will be real opportunities though to buy in cheap Hryvnias, and get get paid back a decade later in expensive Euros. It will take patient and risk tolerant capital, but the potential upside is huge.

Dear Lord how do I explain this $5000 dollar flyer to my wife....

Sorry Capt, the internet has made me an emoji user...

[Battlefront.com]

52 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

That may be true and could be a silver lining. But the term used was historically corrupt. Ukraine will need brave investors that will take risks understanding the possible gains to be realized. Politicians are not risk takers resulting in a potential back log of funds when Ukraine will need them the most. In any case, finding investors willing to re-build normalcy when their efforts can be ruined by an Iranian drone flight will be difficult. So one strategic aim is to produce conditions on the ground that will safeguard those investments. Not to mention the complexity of money coming in from all angles and being dispersed likewise. We have to cheer for a young democracy to be able handle such a situation. It will be tempting to take a piece of reconstruction pie. 

Eastern Europe was just as corrupt as Ukraine after the Soviets pulled out.  Why wouldn't they be, since they were all mentored under the same system of governance?  A while back I checked out some organizations that track corruption and, sure enough, it took some time for progress to be made.  But once it happened, it went very quickly.  Some better than others, for sure, but all made progress. 

In fact, I just checked Transparency International and Estonia is ranked better than the US   It shows Ukraine has been improving since 2012.  It's an imperfect "perception" ranking, but the point is that there's every reason for us to think that Ukraine will improve dramatically once it is fully integrated into the West.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

I can remember an argument about insider trading. Naturally you can warn family members if the company you work for will have a big raid on the stock markets in the coming weeks. Our definition of corruption is completely different from other cultures. Just left Australia for a while.

[FancyCat]

I had posted it, but I'll mention it again, President Zelensky had submitted a bill to dissolve a court known for corruption in 2021 but it never got passed by the Rada, a week ago or so the U.S placed the head of the court on a sanctions list for corruption, and just two days ago, the Rada promptly voted on the bill and dissolved the court. Both the EU and U.S have made it clear thru high level statements and the work of their representatives in Ukraine, that our assistance requires concrete steps by Ukraine to pass reforms targeting corruption, and the war has given Ukraine powerful incentives to act accordingly.

 

[Zeleban]

 

The Russians have finally recovered from their losses in strategic aviation and today organized a new missile attack on Ukraine.

 

Air raid warning for more than an hour

[Zeleban]

 

A series of explosions is heard in Krivoy Rog

[sburke]

Vietnam In Talks With US Defense Companies For Military Gear, Looks To End Reliance on Putin's Arms (msn.com)

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

and get get paid back a decade later in expensive Euros.

Was not referring to a decade from now, but the immediate future. For example, guarantees will only go so far until the missile attacks stop. The west and Ukraine need to find a toehold where there is some semblance of stability in the investment environment. They will need to turn the corner from a humanitarian effort to an economically viable re-building effort. That's why I mentioned the kinetic conditions need to be resolved and aerial attacks ended. Then we can  be confident that a decades worth of investment will expand from building basic infrastructure to building a modern western society with all the comforts. I wonder what is easier, reigning in corruption or establishing a peace where Ukraine can thrive? If latter comes first, the former should take care of itself given a decade. 

Edited December 16, 2022 by kevinkin

[Haiduk]

Four explosions in our district. One was very loud and then fast cracking sounds, maybe it was Gepard. Reportedly one impact, but I don't see any smoke, though an avarage fog around. 

One more missile explosion was heard in southern part of the city

Looks like a "party" still go on. Shakheds, reportedly over Black Sea and next wave of missiles is expected

[G.I. Joe]

18 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Four explosions in our district. One was very loud and then fast cracking sounds, maybe it was Gepard. Reportedly one impact, but I don't see any smoke, though an avarage fog around. 

One more missile explosion was heard in southern part of the city

Looks like a "party" still go on. Shakheds, reportedly over Black Sea and next wave of missiles is expected

Hope everyone on the ground stays safe.

Good luck and good hunting to the air defence units...