How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

Putin a little tipsy here, which is quite interesting given the image he prefers to project to the public.

But this also does not look like a man who is terminally ill. A little puffy, maybe, but not notably unhealthy for 70.

[kevinkin]

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

riding on top

Additionally, no fear of chemical weapons? Weren't some cold war carriers pressurized? Another, might be overall situational awareness and ease to send and receive wireless.  Maybe there now there is a market for convertible IFVs loaded with UBS chargers and routers. 

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/gmc-hummer-evs-infinity-roof-makes-it-one-of-the-only-convertible-pickups/

Edited December 10, 2022 by kevinkin

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

I read that some of the overall supply to Crimea could come via sea. Look out Novorossiysk. That would make for interesting operations. Ukraine has been training for this possibility I believe. One ship a day might be easier to interdict vs. dozens over road. But initially, Russian might try both.

From what I've seen, resupply from Russian seaports has never ceased since the bridge went up.  Probably for the same reasons that barges are still used on major European rivers despite having excellent road and rail options.  It's also why the Azov ports are so important for Russia despite having the land bridge.

If Ukraine takes back the land in the south, there's no immediate and obvious threat to Russia using the Black Sea to resupply Crimea.  Obviously Sea of Azov is out and the bridge is totally fooked.  Air resupply is expensive and limited, so even without a direct threat of interdiction (which there would be) it isn't viable.

We've seen what Russia can do when its back is against the wall and options are limited.  Its ability to keep Kherson going and then evacuating it was quite good.  Probably the single most competent and effective thing it's done in the entire war so far.  I don't think we should underestimate what it can do to keep Crimea supplied.

However, it is probable that the Ukrainian Navy is seeking ways to make resupply by sea very, very uncomfortable for Russia.  Likely not enough to cut it off, but losses are likely.

3 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

And we know what happens when Russia tries to chew gum and eat it. But to relieve pressure on the front and fight in better weather, an attack on Crimea could be a possibility. Many thought leaving it to whither on the vine was the way. But with the combat up in the  Bakhmut sector being so costly ...

I still think going into Crimea should be last on Ukraine's ToDo List.  I'd try to take back, or at least shrink, Luhansk and Donetsk.  OK, personally I would just let them go as they are worse than basket cases, but it seems Ukraine isn't interested in that option.  Their choice and I respect that.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Additionally, no fear of chemical weapons? Weren't some cold war carriers pressurized? Another, might be overall situational awareness and ease to send and receive wireless.  Maybe there now a larger market for convertible IFVs loaded with UBS chargers and routers. 

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/gmc-hummer-evs-infinity-roof-makes-it-one-of-the-only-convertible-pickups/

The reasons for riding on top are pretty well established, make sense, and clearly offer advantages over riding inside the horrific Soviet/Russian APC/IFVs  You named quite a few of them, but forgot much quicker mounting and dismounting.  The Western supplied M113s are superior in that regard, but riding on top still provides the other benefits.  Plus, institutional bias/habit means the M113s and YPR-765s appear to be used the same as BMPs, BTRs, MT-LBs, etc.  Which makes a lot of sense as the primary reason for riding on top is mine protection and the older Western APCs aren't any better at that as far as I know.

Steve

[Splinty]

It was common practice for US troops to ride on top of their M113s during the Viet Nam war to avoid anti tank mine casualties. 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Question about riding on top of BMPs, BTRs, M113s, and other similar APC/IFV type vehicles in this war... is there ever a time when they ride INSIDE the vehicles?  Seems to me, based on the amount of personal gear and supplies seen in knocked out vehicles, my thinking is "no".

I've been curious about since the war started, but I don't recall discussing this specific question.  Why they ride on top has been discussed, and kinda easily answered with all the drone videos of vehicles hitting mines and the passengers seemingly uninjured.

Steve

It is a risky calculus.  Being on top does mitigate against mine strike.  The detonation does not even need to penetrate the hull and you can still get your legs broke if you are inside. Riding on top also equals faster dismount.  Big downside is airburst arty which is what "buttoned up" was supposed to fix..

This kind of indicates something we read awhile back - UA is using their IFVs as battlewagons to get them to the fight but are dismounting and spreading out (in some cases up to a km) from the vehicle when in contact.  It makes sense to ride on top away from direct fire contact and observation, where mines are the biggest threat.  In close contact the IFVs are looking more like direct fire escorts a la tanks, or being left a bound back as dispersed infantry do the forward work.

Another thing notably missing is IFVs in defensive positions.  Normally they are supposed to be dug into those trench lines but I have not seen that for some time.  So I am wondering if the old mounted infantry concept is at play here - with armor getting them too and from, but less so in contact, or maybe plays a more specific role in contact is a better way to think of it.  The issue may be that vehicles are highly visible and artillery magnets for both sides, so infantry are staying away from them when coming close to the enemy.

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, _Morpheus_ said:

How the field hospital near Bakhmut operates:

Google subtitles working fine.

-A shell hit is heard.

-Don't worry, it was far away. Like two buidlings from here.

Tradtionally top-notch reporting from Hromadskie. Indeed Bakhmut seem like hell- always had immense respect for military medical stuff patching up all horrific things modern warfare can cause to human body. In this case those medics weren't rotated for 4 months, which means several months of more or less intensive bombardment. Note also this soldier's description of how Wagnerites changed their tactics, from head-on attacks into infiltration at night (dressed in black?) suported by violent artillery barrages.

[Haiduk]

Reportedly Ukrianian forces conducted strikes today at targets in Zaporizhzhia oblast: Enerhodar (allegedly the site with standing BMPs was hit), Tokmak, Molochansk, Melitopol (local as if write about dozen big explosions) and Berdiansk. Berdiansk was hit the second time for two days - reportedly local small airport was targeted, were Russians established helicopter base and ammo dump. Though, local collaborationist "administration" denies this fact.

Also as write Crimean publics throughout last hour explosions were heard over Belbek airfield near Sevastopol, Dzhankoy airfield and Sinferopol (airport area), airbase Saky . It's unclear about results of theese explosions, local "administration" claims AD shot down all targets.

On the photo something over Simferopol

 

Citycam of Simferopol filmed explosion

Other incident in Crimea - mobilized soldiers from continental Russia were deployed in old abandoned barracks in Ichki town (rus. name Sovetskiy). Because of barracks didn't have heating, for this purpose potbelly stoves. As result, probably because of violations of fire safety snandards, the building burned out, causing victims. Unofficially known about at least two dead

   

 

Edited December 10, 2022 by Haiduk

[Gnaeus]

The video from the field hospital is one of the most moving and inspiring things I have seen from the war.

I assume that there are equally disturbing scenes in civilian areas, given the intentional targeting of civilians. I have been contributing to the organization Direct Relief to provide medical supplies to Ukraine based on this: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/03/02/opinion/ukraine-charity-donation-guide.html?searchResultPosition=4, and the ratings that it has received by other organizations that evaluate charities. You can earmark contributions for Ukraine.

I have no other connection with this organization.

[NamEndedAllen]

13 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Someone is up late studying a thread near you:

"If we're going to do this, let's do it right, and let's get it over as fast as we can, McCaul added.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/incoming-house-foreign-affairs-chairman-michael-mccaul-favors-heavily-arming-ukraine/

Related, incoming Select Committee Chair, for China. A respected rather bipartisan and serious vet.

Rep. Mike Gallagher is the GOP pick to lead a new Select Committee on China — https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/12/09/house-committee-china-gop-gallagher/

 

Download The Washington Post app.

 

[Kinophile]

Is this the first major barrage campaign since the fall of Kherson? 

I don't recall anything similar in scale so far yet.... 

[Haiduk]

Unsuccessful attack of UKR marines company from 35th marines brigade in place between Vodiane and Pisky, Donetsk airport area. This was on 5th of Dec. Filming from DPR "Sparta" recon-assault battlion drone.

Separs say units of their DPR motor-rifle assault battalion "Somali" with support of 11th MRR "Vostok" and artillery fire repelled this attack and destroyed four "Mastiffs" and M113 (more likely this was MT-LBU -based vehicle, judging on video)

Part 1 - UKR troops approaching to the treeplant with DPR fighters and their vehicles start to make some strange circle maneuvers, likely to reduce probability of direct hit from artillery. During this circles they shoot at DPR positions. Though from more than dozen vehicles only two approached too close to trenches and the third some further - on 1:39 some sort of RPG-26 was fired at Mastiff from treeplant, but missed. Soldiers dismount and try to clear the trench, but not enough decisivly. 

Part 2. On the first cadres we can see beginning of attack, but further we can see continue of part 1. While UKR Matiffs stood near trenches, this was enough time to call arty or mortars- as result one Mastiff was hit directly, the second was likely badly damaged. UKR troops seized abandoned trenches in other treeplant and DPR drone dropped grenade on them. Wounded or killed soldier is moved to MT-LBU, but it was hit by mortar or blow up by mine.

Totally DPR claimed 3 Mastiffs and M113 (or MT-LBU) as UKR losses in this attack

Comments of UKR soldiers in twitter

"this was stupid run by the column"

"I recognize the mothe...rs top-brass from Kherson direction /35th brigade was moved from there/. There in the same way they drive in columns across the fields to the death. Maybe is a time to deal with theese traitors or stupid asses?" 

Edited December 10, 2022 by Haiduk

[chrisl]

5 hours ago, kevinkin said:

I read that some of the overall supply to Crimea could come via sea. Look out Novorossiysk. That would make for interesting operations. Ukraine has been training for this possibility I believe. One ship a day might be easier to interdict vs. dozens over road. But initially, Russian might try both. And we know what happens when Russia tries to chew gum and eat it. But to relieve pressure on the front and fight in better weather, an attack on Crimea could be a possibility. Many thought leaving it to whither on the vine was the way. But with the combat up in the  Bakhmut sector being so costly ...

Launch a feint against Crimea that looks like a major offensive, wait until Russia has transported a lot of resources into Crimea to defend it, then use the newly demonstrated remote drone/missile capability to blow sections of all four "lanes" (2 rail, 2 road) of the Kerch bridge.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Other incident in Crimea - mobilized soldiers from continental Russia were deployed in old abandoned barracks in Ichki town (rus. name Sovetskiy). Because of barracks didn't have heating, for this purpose potbelly stoves. As result, probably because of violations of fire safety snandards, the building burned out, causing victims. Unofficially known about at least two dead

Well, everybody says the Russians know how to handle the cold...

Steve

[Haiduk]

I hadn't opportunity to add a list for @sburke, because troubles with electricity, but I will catch up ) 

Major Andrey Orlov, unit unknown, tank troops. Was killed on 9th July

 

Major Roman Gribchenko, RAV service chief (missile and artillery armament service), 70th MRR or 50th SP artillery regiment of 42nd MRD, 58th CAA, Southern military district. Was killed on 6th of April

Major Andrey Lisunov, 291st MRR of 42nd MRD, 58th CAA, Southern military district. Was killed on 9th of March

 

Edited December 10, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

@sburke , next batch )

Major Vladimir Stakhiriuk, senior officer of organization&palnning department of military medicine directorate of Southern military district. Was killed on 20th November

Major GUFSIN (guard of jails) Albert Kireyev, served in 90th tank division, then retired and was employed in  GUFSIN, there got major rank. Enlisted to Wagner PMC. Was killed on 16th Oct likely near Bakhmut

Retired Spetsnaz officer Dmitriy Kirilov, rank unknown, but judging on service timeline Soviet-time 58th CAA, operations in Transnistria, two Chechen wars, other local conflicts he can be at least major. Founder of paramilitary club "Sova" ("Owl") in Moscow oblast for kids and teens. Likely enlisted in Wagner PMC and was killed on 28th of November.

 

Colonel Denis Davydov, commander of 19th NBC protection regiment (has heavy flamethrower battalion with 3 TOS-1A) of 29th CAA, Eastern military district. 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Stoßtruppen

 

 

Edited December 10, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Kinophile]

Thanks @Haiduk.  Keeps is realistic about the ZSU -  a lot improved, a lot left to do. 

[Kinophile]

Ref Russian official census lies about ethnicity :

 

Long and worth the read for westerners. 

[paxromana]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This kind of indicates something we read awhile back - UA is using their IFVs as battlewagons to get them to the fight but are dismounting and spreading out (in some cases up to a km) from the vehicle when in contact.

Wasn't this the original intent of APCs (as opposed to IFVs)? To act as Battle Taxis and for them to support their dismounted infantry with their HMGs? 

[NamEndedAllen]

Continuing this chapter in “Russian Rust & Evil Never Sleeps”

Russian disinformation is demonizing Ukrainian refugees 
As Russian forces shell Ukrainian cities, pro-Kremlin propagandists have homed in on a new topic: turning Europeans against Ukrainian refugees.

By Loveday Morris and Will Oremu https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/12/08/russian-disinfo-ukrainian-refugees-germany/

Edited December 11, 2022 by NamEndedAllen

[kevinkin]

 Dec 10, 2022 - Press ISW

An unnamed US defense source told The Times that the Pentagon is no longer insisting that Ukraine should not strike military targets within Russia. The source noted that the Pentagon has changed its perspective on this matter following the recent intensification of Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure over the last few months and that the Pentagon has become less concerned regarding the risk of escalation, including nuclear escalation, with Russia. The Times suggested that this development is a “green light” for Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory. 

The Sunday shows have been taped already. But maybe we will get something on this live in the morning. This is probably just a public admission to the existing wink and nod relationship but might proceed more aggressive and visible operations by Ukraine. 

Edited December 11, 2022 by kevinkin

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

 Dec 10, 2022 - Press ISW

An unnamed US defense source told The Times that the Pentagon is no longer insisting that Ukraine should not strike military targets within Russia. The source noted that the Pentagon has changed its perspective on this matter following the recent intensification of Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure over the last few months and that the Pentagon has become less concerned regarding the risk of escalation, including nuclear escalation, with Russia. The Times suggested that this development is a “green light” for Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory. 

The Sunday shows have been taped already. But maybe we will get something on this live in the morning. This is probably just a public admission to the existing wink and nob relationship but might proceed more aggressive and visible operations by Ukraine. 

 

It is a shame they only hit those air bases with one or two drones each. Twenty or thirty would have put a hole in the Russian Strategic bomber force that they would never be a able to replace. Still wondering if the U.S. asked them to go small.

[FancyCat]

As we have seen before, Ukraine usually strikes with indigenous weapons, than when the world does not collapse, the West starts letting their stuff be used across the line. I like how strikes in Crimea are being normalized. No longer does "Crimea bombed" bring out the press or the skyrocketing "escalation" rhetoric. Slowly, but steadily, Ukraine is normalizing the world to largely ignore Russian cries of Armageddon on Crimea. (tho Russia switching away from the rhetoric is also important, in that they can no longer sustain the red lines and must relocate) 

corrected coordinates are in the replies to first tweet. 

 

 

 

 

 

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

 Dec 10, 2022 - Press ISW

An unnamed US defense source told The Times that the Pentagon is no longer insisting that Ukraine should not strike military targets within Russia. The source noted that the Pentagon has changed its perspective on this matter following the recent intensification of Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure over the last few months and that the Pentagon has become less concerned regarding the risk of escalation, including nuclear escalation, with Russia. The Times suggested that this development is a “green light” for Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory. 

The Sunday shows have been taped already. But maybe we will get something on this live in the morning. This is probably just a public admission to the existing wink and nob relationship but might proceed more aggressive and visible operations by Ukraine. 

My recollection which may be faulty is that Defense publicly alluded to this months, when pressured  during a live presser. May have been Blinken. Along the lines of, Ukraine has the right to defend itself including striking legitimate targets from which it has been attacked. What has been insisted is a ban on using weapons from the USA ( I am unclear about status of weapons provided by other nations). We certainly have seen a lot of bases and installations in Russia being hit for months now, all presumably with Ukraine’s own weapons.

IF the USA is removing its ban now, that is a very good change in policy. And about damn time.

 

Edited December 11, 2022 by NamEndedAllen