How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[paxromana]

Lavrov has claimed that Ukraine's power infrastructure is a legitimate military target ...

Which means, if he even thought about it for a second, that Russia's power infrastructure is also a legitimate target.

I can presciently hear the screams of outrage at Ukrainian Terrorist Attacks coming from him and the Rat Czar if Ukraine staged such attacks.

Hypocrites one and all.

[Der Zeitgeist]

6 minutes ago, paxromana said:

Lavrov has claimed that Ukraine's power infrastructure is a legitimate military target ...

Which means, if he even thought about it for a second, that Russia's power infrastructure is also a legitimate target.

I can presciently hear the screams of outrage at Ukrainian Terrorist Attacks coming from him and the Rat Czar if Ukraine staged such attacks.

Hypocrites one and all.

I hope they don't waste their time and resources going for the Russian power grid.

More useful to try and smuggle a mortar team or some drones to Saratov...

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, sross112 said:

Would the corrosive warfare always be slow though? Again, the UA is missing pieces and also does not have enough of the pieces they have. Up to maybe 24 HIMARs now? If you had several Bn's of tubes, rockets and then air power in the mix with the western numbers I'd think the speed would be faster than what we are seeing. Same pattern of slow then fast, just a more compressed timetable. Maybe air power will be even more key now as the ISR isn't as much of an issue for them.

That is the big question.  If the UA was fully upgunned they could theoretically corrode the Russians much faster.  To the point everything would look like Kharkiv.  However, in a more symmetrical conflict both sides will likely disperse and deny.  Offence will become “being seen” and engaged by PGM at very long ranges - someone coined the phrase “manoeuvre by fire”.  As both sides use long range fires to corrode their opponent faster/better they will also do everything to slow/prevent their own corrosion.   The end result will likely be a protracted corrosion fight until someone’s ISR bubble collapses, logistics fail and/or they run out of deep strike systems…then things will move fast.  Maybe?

This condition will continue until some form of multi-spectral stealth is developed. Nanotechnology is another avenue I would keep eye on.

As to AirPower, I am really not sure where that is going to go.  Right now the UA is delivering equivalent AirPower effects without the need for airplanes.  If they had ATACMS or the new even longer range missiles en masse they would extend that ersatz AirPower to strategic depths.  I honestly think AirPower will become predominantly unmanned - manned crews will likely fall back to airborne C2  - but I also do not know how much air breathing flying platforms will be employed.  No place to hide in the sky at some point.  I do not think AirPower is going away, I am just not sure how it will be packaged and distributed.

What is really interesting is that this really is about packaging lethal energy, or perhaps energy density is a better term.  
 

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

they were working on a program for the Abrams a decade ago, and then decided they didn't want to give the tanks the artillery's job. They might be about to change their minds. Was this discussed in the forum way back when? I can't think of where else I would have been talking about this that long ago.

And this is where military culture becomes a problem.  Happened with cavalry and the tanks and aircraft carriers and battleships.  We bake in entire collective identities into trades to reinforce organization and structural resilience but it becomes an impediment to agility.  Of course tanks don’t do indirect fire, both the artillery and armoured corps probably threw hissy fits.  The infantry are likely in for a bit of an identity crisis too - “Close with and destroy the enemy” is becoming “Sneak in like door mice and become the human in the loop as long range systems do all the work.”

I think a lot of force development in times like these is simply getting out of our own way.

[Huba]

Turreted 120mm mortars seem to have very bright future ahead of them, blurring the line between the three services. PL has a company of 8 of these (on Patria AMV chassis) for every Patria equipped infantry battalion. Plan to do the same in every mechanized battalion on the new IFVs, with laser designators distributed down to a platoon level at least.

A beauty, isn't she? With a certain WH40K vibe:

Edited December 2, 2022 by Huba

[chris talpas]

10 hours ago, Fenris said:

Amusing clip.  Next gen attack rodents have gotten loose from the biolabs.

 

The tail looks pretty short for a rat.  Could this be a recon element of a Hamstertruppen unit?

 

Edited December 2, 2022 by chris talpas

[Huba]

Just now, chris talpas said:

The tail looks pretty short for a rat.  Could this be a recon element of a Hamstertruppen unit.

 

It certainly is - this is European hamster, known to be a rather vicious little bastard. 

[Bulletpoint]

12 hours ago, dan/california said:

To be fair, we have paid Trillions for the privilege, but their may be a painful technological turnover in progress for the incumbent tech leaders.

 

War has always been expensive, but it's also always been very profitable - at least for the winners. The USA has spent incredible amounts of money to remain the world's only superpower. So far, one could argue that it's paid off quite well for you.

I don't think the Russians are really getting much return on the countless billions they invested in their army though.

[womble]

38 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I don't think the Russians are really getting much return on the countless billions they invested in their army though.

The Russian people in general aren't. Their kleptocrat masters, though... at least they were; perhaps that's changed now.

[Kinophile]

Re editing rat brains,  you guys are playing with fire!

Just gonna future proof myself for after the inevitable Man/Machine Apocalypse and state for any Rodent Researcher reading this forum that I,  FOR ONE,  WELCOME OUR FUTURE CYBERNETIC RODENT OVERLORDS. 

TAKE THE OTHERS,  THEY'RE ALL ANTI-RODENTISTS! 

Call me Quisling,  I dont care. When all you numbskulls are chewing on each other's diseased toes I'll be warm and dry at the feet of the Digital Rat God, happily nibbling my Grade A Soylent Green, 700 feet under ground. 

Yep, yep, yep we'll see who's laughing then! 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Kinophile

[kraze]

39 minutes ago, womble said:

The Russian people in general aren't. Their kleptocrat masters, though... at least they were; perhaps that's changed now.

Dunno, russians are much happier when civilian infrastructure is bombed and civilians are killed than when their army actually takes some small village. So now they are definitely getting more of their investment back than even their kleptocrat masters

[Bulletpoint]

Parcels containing animal eyes have been sent to six Ukrainian embassies in Europe, its foreign ministry says.

Spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said the "blood-soaked" packages were found in Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Croatia, and Austria.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63834667

 

So, a blood-soaked mallet, now animal eyes.. what's next? A horse head on Biden's bed?

[kevinkin]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63832151

Not really news, but a current event today. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63829973

Given populations of 44 million vs 143 million, Ukraine is outlasting Russia. Horrible to look at it this way. And the numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt. Perhaps the numbers will even improve this winter if Ukraine simply allows Russian to impale itself focusing on Russia's delusional thinking rather than a major offensive. 

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

And this is where military culture becomes a problem.  Happened with cavalry and the tanks and aircraft carriers and battleships.  We bake in entire collective identities into trades to reinforce organization and structural resilience but it becomes an impediment to agility.  Of course tanks don’t do indirect fire, both the artillery and armoured corps probably threw hissy fits.  The infantry are likely in for a bit of an identity crisis too - “Close with and destroy the enemy” is becoming “Sneak in like door mice and become the human in the loop as long range systems do all the work.”

I think a lot of force development in times like these is simply getting out of our own way.

I recall another post from an actual tanker, who knows how long ago, was that the preferred load out if there was a real risk of enemy armor was 95% DU sabot. I am not sure that the way Ukraine has played would supports that.

[dan/california]

52 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63832151

Not really news, but a current event today. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63829973

Given populations of 44 million vs 143 million, Ukraine is outlasting Russia. Horrible to look at it this way. And the numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt. Perhaps the numbers will even improve this winter if Ukraine simply allows Russian to impale itself focusing on Russia's delusional thinking rather than a major offensive. 

When we give the Ukrainians the missiles to hit every air base west of the Urals the Russian negotiating position will get a lot more flexible. My vote for doing that would be three months ago, followed by last week, followed by RIGHT BLEEPING NOW.

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

When we give the Ukrainians the missiles to hit every air base west of the Urals the Russian negotiating position will get a lot more flexible. My vote for doing that would be three months ago, followed by last week, followed by RIGHT BLEEPING NOW.

YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES!

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Huba said:

Turreted 120mm mortars seem to have very bright future ahead of them, blurring the line between the three services. PL has a company of 8 of these (on Patria AMV chassis) for every Patria equipped infantry battalion. Plan to do the same in every mechanized battalion on the new IFVs, with laser designators distributed down to a platoon level at least.

A beauty, isn't she? With a certain WH40K vibe:

Out of likes, but in total agreement with this!

[JonS]

10 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Of course tanks don’t do indirect fire, both the artillery and armoured corps probably threw hissy fits.

Tribalism in the military is assuredly a blessing and a curse  but there are practical aspects here. Pushing objects down tubes at high velocity is not great for the tube. Turning tanks into quasi-SP arty party risks compromising their ability to perform their role as direct fire platforms. That's because sustained high rates of fire will quickly ruin current platforms like the Abrams, Chally, or Leopard by shooting out the barrel and over straining all the mounting and connection. It will also compromise future designs by trying to create a weird hybrid PzH2000/Leopard or M109/Abrams or AS90/Chally - a thing that can sort-of do either role in a kind of half-arsed fashion. The hybrid platform would have compromises in muzzle velocity, calibre, range, size, armour, and max elevation. And even then it would be crewed by soldiers who're moderately well trained in both roles rather than being experts in one or the other.

Now, you can reasonably reply that this thing will be firing PGM, so the rates will be neither high nor sustained, so wear on the platform will be negligible, which, sure I accept that technological hand-wave. Except why not just give those rounds to the gunners who already have the entire system for finding and killing things they can't see down to a 't'?

Years and years ago there were several programmes to make a "universal gun" that could perform both AT and AA roles. They all failed because although the requirements were superficially similar they were in the end too dissimilar to be workable. Yes, even the 88. That was too big and bulky - and expensive - to be a really good AT gun. As soon as the British stopped futzing around with their own field artillery, and remembered that concentration is one of the principles for good reasons, the 88 was done.

Edited December 2, 2022 by JonS

[sross112]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

As to AirPower, I am really not sure where that is going to go.  Right now the UA is delivering equivalent AirPower effects without the need for airplanes.  If they had ATACMS or the new even longer range missiles en masse they would extend that ersatz AirPower to strategic depths.  I honestly think AirPower will become predominantly unmanned - manned crews will likely fall back to airborne C2  - but I also do not know how much air breathing flying platforms will be employed.  No place to hide in the sky at some point.  I do not think AirPower is going away, I am just not sure how it will be packaged and distributed.

What is really interesting is that this really is about packaging lethal energy, or perhaps energy density is a better term.  

I definitely see AirPower facing a similar situation where this war has some lessons learned that need to be paid some serious attention. It looks like the helicopter is in about the same position as the vehicle when it comes to survivability near the FEBA. The longer range more lethal manpads pretty much spell the end of the tree top level CAS. The conventional air war will have to move up to a minimum ceiling around 20,000+feet for the planes to mitigate risk. 

It seems to be a common thread across almost all platforms that the lethal ranges are dramatically increasing. The new SIG rifle with Vortex optics is supposed to allow the regular foot soldier to reliably engage targets at 800m. Javelin type ATGMs that fire and forget on targets out to 4km. Manpads with 20,000 ft ceilings. Indirect fires at 80+km. If both sides have these sorts of ranges with good ISR the FEBA is now 100+km wide? It is hard to wrap my mind around that big of a battlespace.

I think that AirPower probably has an advantage when referring to packaging lethal energy, if you have an air force. The ground based systems have definitely acted like a poor man's air force and do have advantages. A country probably needs to make a choice between fielding a large and capable air force or don't bother and focus on air space denial and ground based long range PGM fires. If you go the air force route you need to solve for SEAD/DEAD, period. Russia has proved that without that effective capability you have simply wasted a lot of money on an ineffective tool. If you can solve for that and gain air superiority your air based platforms have the advantage of being based out of indirect fire range and can haul a lot of packaged lethal energy PGMs. 

Probably the most economical route for future is light and land based. How the problem is approached and solved will probably depend a lot on the budget the solvers have to work with.

[womble]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63832151

Not really news, but a current event today. 

Somebody mentioned Russian "hypocrisy" upthread. Here, if we need it, is another example: "We will accept no preconditions to talks (except those we stipulate)." I put "hypocrisy" in quotes, because I don't think the word quite does justice to the level of two-faced mendacity that Russia brings to the world.

Wagner's another one. I'm pretty sure that way back when they first impinged on my awareness (Syria, maybe?), it was asserted that mercenaries are illegal in Russia, and the official powers-that-be in the Kremlin pretty much denied that Wagner existed at all, much less that they were doing the heavy lifting for Al-Assad. But there they are, mercenaries backing up state troops, drawing on State institutions (prisons). Oh, and probably expecting (and actually getting, I'd warrant) the protections afforded to legal combatants that Russia denied to those it (falsely) accused of being mercenaries in the service of Ukraine who were captured in Mariupol. And not only is the illegal-in-Russia mercenary company employed by the State, its felon-leader is a "player" in the factional politics of the Kremlin itself, either an heir-apparent, or potential usurper to Putin, depending which way the wind is blowing on any particular day.

I know you guys probably register this already, but I just had to vent...

[Kinophile]

Mendacity is the perfect word. Nice. 

 

[Kinophile]

https://mwi.usma.edu/a-firsthand-account-of-the-battle-of-mariupol/

MWI is excellent. 

[dan/california]

20 minutes ago, womble said:

Somebody mentioned Russian "hypocrisy" upthread. Here, if we need it, is another example: "We will accept no preconditions to talks (except those we stipulate)." I put "hypocrisy" in quotes, because I don't think the word quite does justice to the level of two-faced mendacity that Russia brings to the world.

Wagner's another one. I'm pretty sure that way back when they first impinged on my awareness (Syria, maybe?), it was asserted that mercenaries are illegal in Russia, and the official powers-that-be in the Kremlin pretty much denied that Wagner existed at all, much less that they were doing the heavy lifting for Al-Assad. But there they are, mercenaries backing up state troops, drawing on State institutions (prisons). Oh, and probably expecting (and actually getting, I'd warrant) the protections afforded to legal combatants that Russia denied to those it (falsely) accused of being mercenaries in the service of Ukraine who were captured in Mariupol. And not only is the illegal-in-Russia mercenary company employed by the State, its felon-leader is a "player" in the factional politics of the Kremlin itself, either an heir-apparent, or potential usurper to Putin, depending which way the wind is blowing on any particular day.

I know you guys probably register this already, but I just had to vent...

Total agreement with this. The Russians total mendacity, lying, and general dysfunction in even attempting to describe reality is so bad I don't know why anyone would sign a treaty with them. Does anyone on this board believe the Russians would hold to any agreement whatsoever for for one second longer than they found it convenient to do so? How do you even attempt to negotiate with people like that? You just have to keep killing them until they go home and stay there, then make it extraordinarily clear to them that you are willing to do it again. Trying to annex territory that they held by force and terror for a few months, or never held at all is simply exhibit A.

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

When we give the Ukrainians the missiles to hit every air base west of the Urals the Russian negotiating position will get a lot more flexible.

Gee why should the Ukrainians have all the fun? Maybe Santa will slide down the chimney with a transporter erector set for every boy and girl. AB geolocations included. Mom and Pop put it in lay away February. Almost time to open it up. 

[danfrodo]

Seems there's at least a little movement on the Svatove front, I wasn't expecting that.  Hopefully UKR is weakening RU defenses even w the mud.  What will happen when the ground freezes solid???   Temperatures still above freezing each day.  I know this is perhaps echo-chamber wishful thinking, but I think the RU forces are much more brittle than many folks think going forward.  But we shall see.  Morale & motivation & platoon/company leadership & supplies & shelter matter.  There's a lot of kidnapped RU men who are already in complete misery and not wanting to die for Putin.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/2/2139602/-Ukraine-update-Advances-near-Svatove-and-Kreminna-show-that-Ukrainian-forces-are-still-on-the-move