How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[JonS]

 

1 hour ago, Seedorf81 said:

I'm sixty years old and practically all my life I have been struggling with the phrase "WARCRIMES".

As I see it, war is by definition a crime and we humans ALWAYS commit horrible crimes during war, civil wars, uprisings, revolutions, conquests and even in peacetime.

Romans, Persians, Dutch, French, Spanish, Aztecs, Vikings, native -Americans, "Arabs", African tribesmen, Chinese, Russians, Japanese, German, and yes even Americans and Canadians and the British (and every other large group of humans), exploited, killed, maimed, tortured and executed their opponents. Be it real or suspected opponents, that is.

Most people, certainly in the West, have the illusion that war can be fought in a "rather clean way".

In my opinion the whole morality-stance on the "yes or no" execution of these Russian prisoners is a waste of time. It is a part of war and as long as we humans go to war, these combat-crimes will happen. I fact, it is a miracle that there are so much frontline-soldiers that DO NOT commit "warcrimes".

I do think there is a big difference between combat-crimes and noncombat-crimes, but if you really want to stop warcrimes, stop war.

Do a bit of study on Solferino. Please.

[Kinophile]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Let's say 10 men are approaching the Ukrainian lines with their hands raised and no visible signs of weapons.  A Ukrainian PKM gunner mows them down because, well, they haven't surrendered yet and who knows... they could be up to no good. Or as you put it "a potential threat".  Not a war crime?

Didn't address because below:

Of course a crime. And you're taking the potential threat to a surface logical end (a threat is a threat is a threat) but without the nuance of this extra tense,  near-close combat situation. In your  example above the UKR gunner does have control -  the 10 have hands up,  no visible signs of weapons.

However... In the video were discussing,  the guys on the ground now have a potential threat of weapons concealed beneath them,  or nearby. In the instant calculation of the moment the UKR would be foolish not to consider everyone in that immediate vicinity a threat,  and considering they have a wounded comrade then twitchy triggers are a given. 

That might rationalize initial fires at the on the ground men, but if course not excuse anything than immediate reactive fire. Once the shooter is down all fires should stop. Anything after immediate reaction is jnto war crimes territory - the threat is gone. 

 Buuut as we've noted -  we just have that video. There's a lot that happens outside of frame and after camera cut.. 

As I've said several times already, some of the prone guys getting killed as a direct result of the idiot "hero" is unfortunate, but not a war crime.  Deliberately raking the whole group with machinegun fire "just in case" is a war crime.  It's as simple as that.

The act of surrendering needs to be respected.  Period.

Steve

 

[kevinkin]

From yesterday:

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-social-media-moscow-criminal-investigations-919a1db8dac14a1d3517b0f79630bc3d

Say this:

Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s office said in a statement Tuesday that a probe has been launched on charges of violating the laws or customs of war over what they said was “feigning surrender and opening fire on the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine” by the Russian servicemen.

Then say this:

“But when it comes to the war in Ukraine, that’s really where the equivalency ends. When we’re looking at the sheer scale of criminality exhibited by Russia’s forces, it’s enormous compared to the allegations that we have seen against Ukrainian forces,” Van Schaack said.

Eventually, the news cycle changes:

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-40fcb95d1940825b99188256ee218d0d

And the questions change from why on the battlefield to why in an maternity ward with both incidents being part of the day to day information war.

Edited November 23, 2022 by kevinkin

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

In my opinion the whole morality-stance on the "yes or no" execution of these Russian prisoners is a waste of time. It is a part of war and as long as we humans go to war, these combat-crimes will happen. I fact, it is a miracle that there are so much frontline-soldiers that DO NOT commit "warcrimes".

I do think there is a big difference between combat-crimes and noncombat-crimes, but if you really want to stop warcrimes, stop war.

So here is the part that people who have not been in a war simply do not get - it is an incredibly slippery slope to the bottom.  Humans are natural born killers for the most part and when given license they get very good at it very fast.  So in war, unregulated killing turns into exactly what we are seeing the RA do in occupied territories very quickly.

”I do not see the point of arguing combat warcrimes” is right next door to “killing of civilians is a-ok” when one is talking warfare.  

“What?!  I never said that!”  Well you basically did because “letting boys be boys” in combat will spread to non-combat situations incredibly fast and there is a mountain of history to back me up on that point.

So the notion of a “war crime” started to try and keep civilians out of it.  This turned out to be very difficult and we failed gloriously at it in WW2 - hence the big push in ‘49 and the new LOAC.  

The idea that two sides can kill each other but not “kill” each other seems counterintuitive and for some “woke” but it is core to military discipline and the idea that war does not need to collapse into strategies of extermination on entire populations. 

As to your last point - “stop war” well in 1949 the UN was set up to do exactly that.  War between states without just cause and recognition of the international community is “illegal” - e.g. the Russian invasion of Ukraine is “illegal”.  Why? Because unregulated war is very bad for everyone on the 21st century, not just those directly involved in combat.

Finally without all these legal frameworks the case for defending Ukraine itself erodes.  We may care to keep Russia at bay but in reality they are barely a global power - I mean seriously, beyond the strategic dead end of nukes, Russia poses an annoyance to NATO (and justification to spend money), it is not an existential threat.  

It is the attack on The Rules that underpins our support to Ukraine in this war - if there were not “The Rules” then why should I care about a “border dispute”* in Eastern Europe from all the way here across the Atlantic Ocean?  

[Canadian trade with Ukraine in 2022 was $155M out of over $62B in Canadian global exports.  The $155M we do in annual sales to Ukraine is one sixth support we have provided so far (nearly $1B)]

*(literally the words I have heard from some circles) 

 

[Beleg85]

There is massive attack against Ukrainian cities. Again- Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa, Vynnitsa etc. Reportedly tall building in Kyiv is  hit and large part of populace is in near-blackout.

Moldova also experiencing Reffects of Russian benevolance- reportedly, 50% of the country is without electricity.

 

Surviving Chmobiks from Sierpuchov town (near Moscow) made a video of their ordeal. They were trained by AirSoft instructors (!), packed into Kamaz trucks and put in trenches with almost zero preparation. Their officers were dead or escaped. What worse, they were immediatelly covered by both Ukrainian and Russian artillery. Even muscovite helicopters shoot at their position- most of casualties were suffered as effects of friendly fire. They grudge that on the frontlines is apparently new term for them- farsh (rus. "stuffing", "filling", wihich heavily point toward "meat").

They want to tell their relatives they are alive. Now they were moved near Makiivka in Luhanska oblast...that Makiivka. Lucky folks.

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

36 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Surviving Chmobiks from Sierpuchov town (near Moscow) made a video of their ordeal. They were trained by AirSoft instructors (!), packed into Kamaz trucks and put in trenches with almost zero preparation. Their officers were dead or escaped. What worse, they were immediatelly covered by both Ukrainian and Russian artillery. Even muscovite helicopters shoot at their position- most of casualties were suffered as effects of friendly fire. They grudge that on the frontlines is apparently new term for them- farsh (rus. "stuffing", "filling", wihich heavily point toward "meat").

So back to the analysis of this war.  Caution and confirmation biases disclaimer accepted - it is things like these which really set the antenna twitching.  The level of systemic breakdown expressed in this one paragraph is enough to leave me wondering what is holding the RA together at this point.  This points to broad failures from force generation thru to force employment; inadequate training, nearly non-existent RSOMI - particularly on the (I) integration"; significant leadership failures and attrition; non-existent RA targeting enterprise, and; a plummeting morale - to the point they are adopting it within a sub-cultural norm, they named it.

The only question left is "how wide spread is this experience?"  The answer to that determines just how badly the RA has broken itself in this war.

We keep coming back to the idea of "freezing the conflict" as the new western fear.  I have to be honest, I cannot see how the RA can do that by this point.  To freeze any conflict one has to be able to create an unsolvable symmetry and frankly I cannot see how the RA can possibly accomplish this in the state it is in.  A lot of pundits are going on about a "long war" but I have some serious doubts.  I think we may see Steve's full RA collapse before this is over and it will likely start in units like this one.

[TheVulture]

18 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So back to the analysis of this war.  Caution and confirmation biases disclaimer accepted - it is things like these which really set the antenna twitching.  The level of systemic breakdown expressed in this one paragraph is enough to leave me wondering what is holding the RA together at this point.  This points to broad failures from force generation thru to force employment; inadequate training, nearly non-existent RSOMI - particularly on the (I) integration"; significant leadership failures and attrition; non-existent RA targeting enterprise, and; a plummeting morale - to the point they are adopting it within a sub-cultural norm, they named it.

The only question left is "how wide spread is this experience?"  The answer to that determines just how badly the RA has broken itself in this war.

How much of the mobik experience is policy though? Russia does have capable forces: the units that have been defending in Kherson for months have done a competent job, and most of them managed to withdraw over the river in reasonably good order. Some sections of the RA are capable of coherent, integrated (more or less) action.

Are the mobiks a counterexample of what is 'normal' in other sectors, or a deliberate policy of just getting enough bodies in place in critical areas quickly to buy enough time for the better units to reconstitute (at least a little) and relocate. Were they ever expected to do anything but die in place in short order. Just throw them out there as a speed bump, and don't bother telling the artillery or anyone else because it really doesn't matter.

[danfrodo]

We have dozens and dozens and dozens of videos of RU prisoners being treated well, often better than required, by UKR soldiers.  We have one instance that, depending on how one views it, can be viewed as very bad.  So let's take that one instance and paint everything with that and let it change our view on the much bigger picture of Putin's ongoing war of serial mass murder, child kidnapping, city destruction, and economic ruin.  And then let's debate it ad nauseum.  

[The_Capt]

9 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

How much of the mobik experience is policy though?

I do not know and that is a central question.  Mobilization was not an escalation threat everyone made it out to be - it is a self-administered poison for the RA.  This is like energy drinks - sure they will keep you up and moving, but you are going to pay for it later.  Mobilization bought the RA roughly 100k problems, not solutions because they were not set up to deal with that level of a force generation bill than they were for anything else that happened in this war.

Now they face a real dilemma - keep those poorly mobilized troops as unit-level tumors, or poison regular units - who are in pretty mauled shape?

None of this points to a sustainable military effort in the longer term.

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

We have dozens and dozens and dozens of videos of RU prisoners being treated well, often better than required, by UKR soldiers.  We have one instance that, depending on how one views it, can be viewed as very bad.  So let's take that one instance and paint everything with that and let it change our view on the much bigger picture of Putin's ongoing war of serial mass murder, child kidnapping, city destruction, and economic ruin.  And then let's debate it ad nauseum.  

Ok, let me hit this on the head one last time because it is going to a really bad place.  And I totally get the sentiment but we need to be absolutely clear on this point - being the 'good guys' and acting like a modern professional military means all the time, no matter what. 

No days off, no "revenge breaks" and definitely no "hey they are doing it."

Only a combat veteran of Afghanistan or Iraq can describe just how badly we wanted to call in an A10 and wipe out an entire grid square after one of your own goes home in a box.  Or retaliate when the insurgents did some really dark sh#t.

But that ain't the gig, ever.  The single biggest point civilians do not get about war is that 'killing' is not the hard part - the hard part is 'to not keep on killing'. 

We clipped guys for holding a cellphone in the wrong place for too long, chewed up teenagers digging hole in roads, and a hammered into meat a few farmers dumb enough to stick around.  We did it and high-fived when we dropped them.  We slept soundly that night and never thought twice about doing it the next day. 

But we never let that out of the professional box we kept it in - the second we did, and could no longer tell which way was up - even when the other team was basically operating on Genghis Khan ROEs - we would stop being soldiers and become something else. And then the whole thing starts to unravel.

The RA and Russia will pay for their actions for decades.  War crimes are one of the key indicators that the RA is in freefall and not a coherent fighting force - military discipline has fallen apart on a wide scale, and they are reaping that field this fall.

But we beat them by being better than they are, forever.    

[Sojourner]

24 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

No days off, no "revenge breaks" and definitely no "hey they are doing it."

I don't think @danfrodo was suggesting that Ukraine be given a pass because of the good treatment they've rendered in other instances. I think his point was that we shouldn't lose sight of that.

It's an unfortunate side effect of the nature of journalism harkening back to Journalism 101, "Dog Bites Man" is not news, but "Man Bites Dog" is news. So when the "good guys" do something bad (the unexpected) it's more newsworthy than good guys doing something good (or bad guys doing something bad).

Edited November 23, 2022 by Sojourner

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Huba said:

Kazakh chocolate ad, featuring fleeing russian mobik and "the taste of freedom":

 

Ah, maybe this is why Russian TV propagandists are now claiming Kazakhstan is now ruled by Nazis?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/z2bp64/propagandists_are_now_calling_kazakhstan_nazis_too/

Russians are so funny!  They wouldn't have to worry about relations with their neighbors if they weren't so nasty to them.  Look at the US and Canada.  Even when they do stuff we in the US don't like, it's REALLY hard to get mad at them.  They're so damned nice!  We do stuff to them they don't like, but our smokes and gas are cheaper so they put up with us too

Steve

[danfrodo]

45 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, let me hit this on the head one last time because it is going to a really bad place.  And I totally get the sentiment but we need to be absolutely clear on this point - being the 'good guys' and acting like a modern professional military means all the time, no matter what. 

No days off, no "revenge breaks" and definitely no "hey they are doing it."

Sojourner is right, I am NOT saying this is OK.  I am saying that single incidents can be blown out of proportion.  We're in an ocean of Putin-instigated blood and this is a drop in that bucket.  Sojourner's point is that the exception will be seen as the rule.  It's the Fox news tactic -- take the 1 out of 100 and show it 100x and folks think it's the 99 out of 100.  And this episode can do that -- completely distorting reality of the big picture through the repeating of an anecdote.  All I am saying is to take this incident as an incident.  

I agree w what you've been saying TheCapt, there is no place for killing captives, ever.  

[Maciej Zwolinski]

17 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Article 37 does prohibit perfidy or the unlawful use of the protections of the LOAC; however, it does not give license for further violations or mean the rest of LOAC does not apply.  https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/ART/470-750046?OpenDocument

The Russian soldier(s) who are proven to have participated in an act of perfidy are prosecutable under the LOAC.  If the whole unit and its chain of command were involved then they too can be prosecuted.

However none of this gives licence to legally gun down every man in the RA squad, especially unarmed men lying face down on the ground.  For that, they would need to prove that the entire squad was about to get up and re-engage in combat - so intent and capability, which allowed for lawful engagement or self-defence.

Looking at the behaviour of the UKR soldiers from the perspective of perfidy (in this case feigned surrender - art. 37 1. (a) of the additional protocols to Geneva Conventions - the "Protocols") and whether the act of perfidy excuses shooting at Russians lying on the ground actually muddles up the analysis. Clearly neither of the Ukrainians engaged in perfidy and art. 37.1. does not need to be consulted to review the legality of UKR actions in this case. Instead it is sufficient to go directly to art. 41.2 of the Protocols, which defines  persons hors de combat (the Russians lying on the ground being the case defined in either (a) or (b) of that article). 

This definition is qualified by the requirement not to engage in hostile acts and not to attempt escape, in which case a person is a fair target. None of the publicly available films provides evidence sufficient to form a view about tihis, however it is quite likely that the soldiers lying on the ground did try to escape once bullets started flying above their heads. At least the accused men will claim this - it is a no brainer. At the same time, any investigation against the UKR soldiers about this would have the character of criminal proceedings, so the presumption of innocence applies in full. 

I am sure that those soldiers will walk free, and in all fairness they should do so, unless there are other films, or there is inspection of bodies which shows them shot in the back of the head or from very close range. That is what the presumption of innocence is for.

 

 

 

[kevinkin]

"Kinburn Spit

(Once) Peaceful sandy peninsula with protected & rare plants, fishing areas & calm water."

https://news.yahoo.com/kinburn-spit-operation-ukraine-significant-115100173.html

As Ukrainian forces attacked the Kinburn Spit, they also launched yet another drone strike on Sevastopol, home of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, which you can read more about here. While it remains to be seen how effective either operation is, one thing is clear. Ukraine has its eyes on Crimea. - The War Zone

[Battlefront.com]

36 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

I don't think @danfrodo was suggesting that Ukraine be given a pass because of the good treatment they've rendered in other instances. I think his point was that we shouldn't lose sight of that.

It's an unfortunate side effect of the nature of journalism harkening back to Journalism 101, "Dog Bites Man" is not news, but "Man Bites Dog" is news. So when the "good guys" do something bad (the unexpected) it's more newsworthy than good guys doing something good (or bad guys doing something bad).

Well, except that every day there's extensive coverage of Russia's war crimes and cruelty.  Even in the publications that covered the Ukrainian video.  In that context one could argue that "Man Bites Dog" is newsworthy because it is different than the rest of the news.

As The_Capt says, not killing is a difficult thing to do.  Ukraine is still in transition from Soviet era thinking to Western thinking, not just about fighting wars but everything else as well.  It needs to be held to account when Soviet style behavior, be it executing prisoners or bribing government officials, so that it can learn from its mistakes.

Think about it this way.  When the 2014 war started up and a Ukrainian company was caught delivering body armor that was in reality hard foam rubber, there was outrage because their behavior was putting lives and the country's future at risk.  Nobody said, "well, the Russians are even worse so this is OK behavior for Ukrainians".  Nobody said "this isn't news worthy, so let's move on".

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

I am sure that those soldiers will walk free, and in all fairness they should do so, unless there are other films, or there is inspection of bodies which shows them shot in the back of the head or from very close range. That is what the presumption of innocence is for.

Sure, and you'll note that NOBODY here is saying these soldiers committed a war crime based on the evidence we have on hand.  Presumption of innocence is alive and well here. 

The whole reason why we're still talking about this is that some people seem to believe that it doesn't matter if they are innocent or not because there's no reason to question if there is a war crime in the first place.  That's not a presumption of innocence, that is a determination of innocence based on incomplete information, erroneous understanding of the law, and/or a belief that it's morally acceptable to murder Russians because they murder Ukrainians.

Steve

[sburke]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

The RA and Russia will pay for their actions for decades.  War crimes are one of the key indicators that the RA is in freefall and not a coherent fighting force - military discipline has fallen apart on a wide scale, and they are reaping that field this fall.

and these guys are gonna get fed back into a broken society..   It is something to see - a country literally destroying its future.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, TheVulture said:

How much of the mobik experience is policy though? Russia does have capable forces: the units that have been defending in Kherson for months have done a competent job, and most of them managed to withdraw over the river in reasonably good order. Some sections of the RA are capable of coherent, integrated (more or less) action.

Are the mobiks a counterexample of what is 'normal' in other sectors, or a deliberate policy of just getting enough bodies in place in critical areas quickly to buy enough time for the better units to reconstitute (at least a little) and relocate. Were they ever expected to do anything but die in place in short order. Just throw them out there as a speed bump, and don't bother telling the artillery or anyone else because it really doesn't matter.

I speculated a couple of weeks ago that it appears that Russia implemented a deliberate policy of assigning a portion of the mobilized by clogging up Ukrainian offensive activities with their bodies.  Another portion is being committed as individual replacements for standing units and the balance retained for some degree of force regeneration behind the lines.  The latter likely to be committed to combat inadequately trained or equipped, but better than the mob units and untrained individual replacements.

As for the friendly fire from Russian side, we've seen more than a few reports of this.  This seems to be related to mobik units reporting that they were dumped in seemingly random spots and told to dig in without any concept of what they were supposed to do after.  My presumption is that the deployment of mobik mob units is so chaotic that local commanders don't know where they are.  Couple that with traditional problems within the Russian forces (i.e. inherently weak command and control) and probable decline in quality of supporting forces, well... not a good mix for the mobik mobs.

Steve

[Huba]

Contents of new arms package from the US. Looks like the AA machine-gun is making an unexpected comeback to the battlefields. I wonder if declared UK "AA guns" aren't in fact Oerlikons...

 

[cesmonkey]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

Contents of new arms package from the US.

Just a confirmation of what you referenced above:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3227217/400-million-in-additional-assistance-for-ukraine/

[A Canadian Cat]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

But that ain't the gig, ever.  The single biggest point civilians do not get about war is that 'killing' is not the hard part - the hard part is 'to not keep on killing'. 
<snip>

But we beat them by being better than they are, forever.    

Very well said - on both counts.

Canada has has a few high profile cases of soldiers forgetting that and civilians were very, very unhappy about it. I dare say it derailed the normal news for a long time even when investigations were done and those that crossed the line were punished. I, also a civilian, spent a lot of time explaining things and trying to share that the right things were being done and the sky was not actually falling. It was an uphill battle.

[NamEndedAllen]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/some-russian-commanders-knew-sexual-violence-or-encouraged-it-says-lawyer-2022-11-23/

KYIV, Nov 23 (Reuters) - There is evidence that Russian commanders in several instances were aware of sexual violence by military personnel in Ukraine “and in some cases, encouraging it or even ordering it,” according to an international criminal lawyer assisting Kyiv’s war crimes investigations.

British lawyer Wayne Jordash told Reuters that in some areas around the capital of Kyiv in the north, where the probes are most advanced, some of the sexual violence involved a level of organisation by Russian armed forces that “speaks to planning on a more systematic level.” He didn’t identify specific individuals under scrutiny.

 

 

[NamEndedAllen]

And in other war crime related news of massive crimes against humanity:

Ukraine's western city of Lviv is without power after a wave of Russian missiles pounded the country. 

Critical infrastructure in Kyiv was also targeted, and the city's officials said three people died in the attack. 

Across the border, Moldova also reported "massive" blackouts, although it has not been directly hit.

Moscow has recently increased strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, leaving half of the country's power grid in need of repair. 

Ukraine's national power grid operator has said the damage sustained by power generating facilities in recent weeks has been "colossal" and warned that Ukrainians could face long power outages over the winter months. 

Early on Wednesday, an air-raid alert was issued across Ukraine, followed by reports of explosions in a number of locations. 

Ukraine's air force said over 70 cruise missiles were launched by Moscow, with air defences intercepting 51 projectiles. Officials said five drones were also launched. 

But the attack has caused significant damage to infrastructure across the country. 

Ukraine's state energy company, Energoatom, said three nuclear reactors were taken offline due to the blackout. 

And in the capital Kyiv, parts of the city have been let without water and completely without power, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said. 

Lviv mayor, Andriy Sadovy, said children had been taken to shelters with their teachers - and urged parents not to pick them up until the alarm was over.

Shortly before the fresh reports from Kyiv and Lviv, officials said southern Ukraine had come under renewed assault. 

The governor of the Mykolaiv region warned of "many rockets" arriving from the south and east.

In the nearby Zaporizhzhia region, a newborn baby was killed when a missile hit a maternity unit, emergency services said.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63729427

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Contents of new arms package from the US. Looks like the AA machine-gun is making an unexpected comeback to the battlefields. I wonder if declared UK "AA guns" aren't in fact Oerlikons...

 

what are 120mm mortar mines??