How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[NamEndedAllen]

15 minutes ago, Probus said:

would Russia have to target something in Poland.

Like, human beings? 

[Beleg85]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Is the third photo with tail part of Kh-555 from impact site or just for comparison?

Comparision. And by non specialist, so even more we should wait.

[FancyCat]

Nothing indicates that NATO wants to invoke Article 5 and escalate. Most likely, new weapons to Ukraine, maybe finally some ATACMS. The issue is that even tho NATO does not want to escalate, we cannot have a situation where Russia is normalized into striking Polish territory (accidentially or deliberately) without NATO response. So it will be interesting to see what the alliance decides upon. 

[Huba]

Conveniently, tomorrow is another session of Ukraine Support Group that coordinates deliveries of military aid. An occasion to act fast is here, fingers crossed for NATO using this opportunity to up the game.

[NamEndedAllen]

From CNN, 40 minutes ago. 

41 min ago

Baltic states express solidarity with Poland after rockets or missiles reported to land on Polish soil

From Antonia Mortensen and James Frater

The Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed concern about reports of two missiles or rockets landing in a farm in Poland near the Ukrainian border. 

"Latest news from Poland is most concerning. We are consulting closely with Poland and other Allies. Estonia is ready to defend every inch of NATO territory," the ministry tweeted.

“We’re in full solidarity with our close ally Poland,” it added.

Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks said that "Latvia fully stands with Polish friends." 

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said that the country is "keeping a close contact" with Poland. 

"Lithuania stands in strong solidarity with Poland," he tweeted," adding that “every inch of NATO territory must be defended!”

 

AND AN HOUR + AGO,

Polish government official says national security meeting was called due to "emergency situation" 

From CNN's Tim Lister, Emmet Lyons and Antonia Mortensen

A government spokesperson in Poland says a meeting of national security officials Tuesday night was called "due to the emergency situation."

He added that details would be released after the meeting.

The meeting follows reports that two missiles landed on a farm in eastern Poland, near the Ukrainian border.

A Polish official told CNN that nothing was confirmed yet and the investigation into the incident was continuing.

There's been no confirmation from Polish authorities that Russian missiles landed on Polish territory.

[kraze]

There will be no article 5.

There will be no western tanks or ATACMS.

It will be "deeply concerning" and will be highly downplayed.

Behind the curtain we will get some more weapons but nothing "escalating".

Would like to be wrong, but it's been almost 9 years of this.

[Commanderski]

I think that Poland will take some sort of action. Either out in the open or covertly but they will do something on their own.

[NamEndedAllen]

4 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

But from a Western perspective it looks like RU is doing everything in its power to prove that President Zelenskyy is right, that Russia is a dangerous terrorist state

And yet no nation yet has formally officially designated Russia as a terrorist state. Will missiles killing Polish citizens not count either? Now whose frog is being boiled??

[Beleg85]

9 minutes ago, kraze said:

There will be no article 5.

There will be no western tanks or ATACMS.

It will be "deeply concerning" and will be highly downplayed.

Behind the curtain we will get some more weapons but nothing "escalating".

Would like to be wrong, but it's been almost 9 years of this.

I would wait for official info, we really know almost zero now. There a huge difference between Russian missile went astray, Ukrainian AA chaisng him or deliberatelly targeting NATO border. If Putin indeed escalated today deliberatelly (small chance, but possible regarding other events) it will not be left just like that. It would be sign of weakness from NATO, and we can't afford that.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Beleg85

[kevinkin]

Is there anything of military value where today's attack within Poland took place i.e. the bridge over the river at the border or staging areas for NATO support? I don't see why Russia would fire a one off attack intentionally unless something of high value was targeted. It's not like NATO will stand by if they are intentionally aiming at something other than their foot. 

 

[Letter from Prague]

7 minutes ago, kraze said:

There will be no article 5.

There will be no western tanks or ATACMS.

It will be "deeply concerning" and will be highly downplayed.

Behind the curtain we will get some more weapons but nothing "escalating".

Would like to be wrong, but it's been almost 9 years of this.

Exactly.

My biggest concern is that this will clearly show the world that act of war murdering NATO citizens will go unpunished because NATO is always unwilling to act. Even more clearly than MH17 and poisoning people and sabotage of Nordstream and power cables and ammunition depots and so on. And when Russia does attack Europe again in ten years, they will know, and there will be no NATO.

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Today's strike ecxeed the levcel of Oct 10th with its 84 missiles. 

90 cruise missiles (mostly Kh-101/Kh-555 and about dozen Kalibrs from Black Sea) and 10 Shakheds launched in three waves. Missiles flew from different directions, i.e through Belarus.

73 missiles and 10 Shakheds shot down

15 power infrastructure objects hit mostly in western regions.

Around Kyiv 18 missiles shot down from 21, which attacked Kyiv, Kyiv oblast or just passed further to other regions. From them at least 4 missiles shot down over Kyiv.

Fragments of two shot down missiles have fallen on two residential buildings, causing death of woman, 3 citizens were traumatized.

Air forces also claimed shot down of UCAV "Orion"

Interesting that there were so few Shakheds. Did Iran really stop supplying them? Then this latest attack is a last hurrah, as the Russians must be close to running out of cruise missiles at this point.

[NamEndedAllen]

The massive missile attacks on civilians in Ukraine and Poland come after THIS:

 From CNN’s Masrur Jamaluddin in Bali, Indonesia and Xiaofei Xu

President Volodymyr Zelensky presented a 10-point peace plan to end Russia's invasion of Ukraine in a video speech to G20 leaders in Bali on Tuesday, according to a transcript shared by the Embassy of Ukraine in Indonesia.

The steps includes a path to nuclear safety, food security, a special tribunal for alleged Russian war crimes, and a final peace treaty with Moscow, according to a transcript of the speech.

He also urged G20 leaders to use all their power to “make Russia abandon nuclear threats” and implement a price cap on energy imported from Moscow.

Foundation for victory: In the address, Zelensky compared the recent liberation of the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson to the battles leading to the Allied defeat of Germany in World War II.

“It is like, for example, D-Day — the landing of the Allies in Normandy. It was not yet a final point in the fight against evil, but it already determined the entire further course of events,” Zelensky said in the address.
“If the victory will be ours in any case, and we are sure of it, then shouldn't we try to implement our formula for peace to save thousands of lives and protect the world from further destabilization?”

Zelensky also called on Russia to stop bombing Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as winter approaches. “Let Russia prove by its rejection of terror that it is really interested in the restoration of peace,” he said.

Moscow has been isolated at this year’s G20 summit as multiple Western leaders vowed not to have any contact with its Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who is in attendance on behalf of the Kremlin. 

Edited November 15, 2022 by NamEndedAllen

[Letter from Prague]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

Interesting that there were so few Shakheds. Did Iran really stop supplying them? Then this latest attack is a last hurrah, as the Russians must be close to running out of cruise missiles at this point.

There has been rumours that "unknown country" hit Shakhed factory with an air strike.

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Interesting that there were so few Shakheds. Did Iran really stop supplying them? Then this latest attack is a last hurrah, as the Russians must be close to running out of cruise missiles at this point.

I think, Russians already used first batch of Shakheds and next one likely only recently has delivered (there were some flights of Il-76 from Iran) and now is assembling

Edited November 15, 2022 by Haiduk

[Bulletpoint]

Just now, Letter from Prague said:

There has been rumours that "unknown country" hit Shakhed factory with an air strike.

Ah, the unknown Israelis again.

[kraze]

2 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Exactly.

My biggest concern is that this will clearly show the world that act of war murdering NATO citizens will go unpunished because NATO is always unwilling to act. Even more clearly than MH17 and poisoning people and sabotage of Nordstream and power cables and ammunition depots and so on. And when Russia does attack Europe again in ten years, they will know, and there will be no NATO.

I think that was the whole purpose of the attack on Poland. Poland is known to be the most "antirussian" NATO country and will cry for blood. But NATO will back down and it should create first cracks in the alliance. And that's why russians escalate like this.

After all Simonyan herself basically said this is revenge for Belgorod being hit with the help of western arms - they came out guilty as charged.

[kraze]

9 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I would wait for official info, we really know almost zero now. There a huge difference between Russian missile went astray, Ukrainian AA chaisng him or deliberatelly targeting NATO border. If Putin indeed escalated today deliberatelly (small chance, but possible regarding other events) it will not be left just like that. It would be sign of weakness from NATO, and we can't afford that.

Russians already basically admitted it was deliberate via their propagandists, saying it was revenge for NATO helping Ukraine strike Belgorod

 

 

Edited November 15, 2022 by kraze

[Beleg85]

Just now, kraze said:

Russians already admitted it was deliberate via their propagandists, saying it was revenge for NATO helping Ukraine strike Belgorod

Nobody gives a damn what propagandists say other than for joke. Officially they are not involved.

Place is somehting like 7 to 9kms (depending on version) from the border...that would rather exclude debris from Ukrainian territory.

[womble]

8 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

And yet no nation yet has formally officially designated Russia as a terrorist state. Will missiles killing Polish citizens not count either? Now whose frog is being boiled??

The Czech Republic just designated the current Kremlin administration as "terrorist". I'll quote the reportage, since it's on a "live page" and will move/get swamped by later developments:

 

Quote

Czech parliament passes Russian 'terrorist' motion

Rob Cameron

Reporting from Prague

The Czech parliament has passed a motion describing the current Russian administration as "terrorist".

The motion singled out widespread attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets and key energy infrastructure.

During the vote, 129 of 156 MPs present in the 200-seat chamber approved the motion, which means several dozen opposition MPs are likely to have voted with the government.

The motion was opposed by all 14 MPs in the far-right SPD party.

The Czech centre-right government is one of Ukraine's most stalwart supporters, and was among the first to send heavy weapons - including tanks - to the Ukrainian armed forces.

 

[Haiduk]

Zelenskiy just claimed NASAMS hit 10 targets from 10 tracked - 100 % result. NASAMS became operational about a week ot more ago. Two systems were deployed in Ukraine, but number of batteries and launchers unknown

Kyiv sky also guard IRIS-T, their results also enought high, allegedly about 90 %

 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Haiduk

[kraze]

4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Nobody gives a damn what propagandists say other than for joke. Officially they are not involved.

And that's a huge mistake. They are an official position of Kremlin, every single word they say goes through a dozen of filters personally selected by putin.

Goebbels was even more official than the moustached guy himself after all

Edited November 15, 2022 by kraze

[Haiduk]

Also for comparison

 

[Huba]

Here's a possible explanation why the missiles were flying in this area in the first place. After a preliminary verification, it seems that this map is not very accurate - there is around 40km between the Dobrotvir TPP and Przewodów. 

 

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

NATO could have ended it ...

... by not supplying the Ukranians with any military materiel.